http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/news.pht...ears-left.phtml

Personally, I think Bluray won't get sales of what they are expecting. Maybe not as low as DVD-A and SaCD but low anyway

What's to replace Blu-Ray?

Movie downloads?

Considering in the previous interviews they already said that digital downloads are already there for SD content and are already replacing the DVD content, it's not far fetched to see that they think HD downloads will be fully applicable.. They are investing heavily in OLED technology too but it's interesting to see that one of the biggest Blu-ray supporting CE companies delivering first Blu-Ray player and boosting several different models over the course of past 2+ years now says that Blu-Ray will be gone within 5 years..

I think that means that it's not really peachy situation in his opinion.

By then it will be what 7 years old? That sounds like a normal life cycle to me. Comparatively alternatives to DVD were announced around 2004ish. But if average household internet bandwidth does not increase by A LOT in North America from now until then I think Blu Ray will be around much longer. Because as of now most households in NA are lower than 2.5Mbps, so obviously downloading HD content is not yet practical.

Don't forget that Comcast just imposed a 250GB/month download limit. How long it stays at 250GB will be a mystery given Comcast's actions up to this point in time.

Boz - Samsung is probably mad because they haven't made a player than can compete with the PS3 yet, which is completely their fault. Its pretty sad that every CE company hasn't made a player comparable to the PS3 yet.

First of all 250gb is still quite enough.. but in general Comcast is one provider and they are simply greedy.. That won't fly for too long. The competition will bury them. New fiber optics networks are spreading and will replace standard cable technology. Comcast is just acting like little bitches. They won't be able to do that for long anyways. Cox already said they will be expanding their offering by end of this year to 50mbps connections. I have 20mbps and that's Phoenix.

250gb a month will allow you to watch between 30-60 HD movies a month.. unless you watch movies every day and 2 of them at that.. it's still quite enough.

This will all improve over the course of this and next year anyways.. Many cable companies are already forced to expand infrastructures and with that.. there's also a bit-torrent sharing solutions that will most likely be implemented so people share bandwith. It's really a software thing from the digital download provider.

Good thing about digital downloads is that once they solve this.. the things just work.. no profiles, no BD-Java crap.. just movies at great quality from the couch in your living room and there shouldn't be any cap.. Today you have 720p HD movies.. next year as the infrastracture grows you get full 1080p for all movies, 5 years from now, additional bandwith improvements or whatever we could get even higher resolution digital downloads. And your investment would be ZERO, except for paying probably subscriptions to cable company and buying/renting the movie online, that's it.

Blu-Ray has had a finished spec the entire time, the hardware was tiered. Why? I don't know. HD-DVD features never really impressed me that much and they apparently didn't impress buyers either. Every sales bit you'll find will corroborate that and you know it.

If HD-DVD won, prices would have gone back up. No way Toshiba sells the HD-A2 for $99 unless they were on the way out, which is exactly the case. None of their other units fell in price.

At the end of the day, its the BDA needing to go out and show consumers why they need to buy HDM like the DVD board did when DVD was released. The push isn't there. Disney does the best job of doing it and I've only seen the advertisements on their BDs.. which is kind of dumb.

I don't know, Blue-ray isn't any good without an HD television, those need to be standard before people start buy discs and certainly before the format dies. Sure it will die soon, I think, but it will be because not enough people are replacing their SD televisions and by the time they do a better format will have replaced it.



What's DVD-A and SaCD? I know more than anyone I know about video formats but I've never heard of these

Wishful thinking as I'm sure America preferred to fill their tanks then purchase entertainment items.

@bobbytomorow :

The system capacity in America is there, we can support HD movie downloads plus some, however its the big companies that will be the biggest road block which the FCC is investigating ComCast right now and some of the decisions they have made recently.

Sounds like a pretty reasonable estimate to me. However, just because it won't be the newest/best format doesn't mean it will be killed off there and then.

Dvd is strong as ever, even with the introduction of Blu Ray the past 2 years.

I could see Blu-Ray dying eventually, it is the next Betamax. It seems great now, then we will all find out it is completely useless.

Yeah..but Blu-ray is not next DVD (even Sony executives now say so) and will never be so I think that he's right that it will perish by then.

Keep this in mind.. 97% is DVD now.. 2-3% is Blu-Ray (I'm not sure).. it is logical that DVD is still strong.. Blu-Ray is on the other hand an outsider that probably won't get more then 20-30% of the market by then if that (and that's considering HDTV expansion) and other factors. So yeah, it's much easier to replace and completely kill off something that's not widespread, don't you think?

Hmm I think that will heavily depend on high speed broadband penitration. In countries like Korea, I can see Blu-Ray been gone sooner then 5 years but in other countries it depends on how good their broadband is. Here down under, I can't see HD movie download services taking off (not with how things are currently), not everyone has access to very high speed internet and even the ones who do it's [usually] capped. Personally I prefer Blu-Ray/DVD as I like having the physical copy anyway. Well that is my 2 cents take with a grain of salt.

There's a reason why Sony is pushing digital download so furiously in their products.

PS3, TVs and other devices they are coming out with have already digital downloads support.

LG just released a digital download equipped Blu-Ray player too. Many others will release digital streaming/download devices too. It's the future. Every sane and logical person knows it. Who's gonna invest in obsolete optical format for most then a few more years, especially when you already have a DVD that's pretty good looking as it is with upscaling for most people.

Men lie, women lie, numbers dont. Blu-Ray has won the war for now. Will something come along and knock it off it's perch? Maybe, maybe not. We will have to wait and see.

I really don't think it will just disappear and it will grow over the next few years. I'm not saying it will reach the height of DVD, but with no other HD format in the market and the PS3 also pushing sales it's going to grow considerably by 2012. If you look at other storage mediums like Sata and IDE, the introduction didn't kill off IDE completely, it merely took over as the new standard. Eventually DVD will die off (perhaps by 2012 or earlier), and blu ray will take it's place once a new format is introduced.

I think it's much more likely they will co-exist and the market shares will slowly change sides as time progresses.

But there is competition already.. services like Xbox Live with HD and PSN with HD and Apple TV and Vudu are already a competition to Blu-Ray. Digital downloads are already here, maybe still not on a massive massive level but I can tell you with certainty that it's growing much faster then Blu-Ray. 10 million Xbox Live subscribers already use it, 20 million+ Xbox 360s are already available, nothing else is needed.. same goes for PS3.. new devices coming out.. a clear example of competition is the new LG device that sports Netflix digital downloads and Blu-Ray player in one.

DVD made its US debut in 1997. I think the issue is that while DVD offered clear advantages over VHS. I've seen no compelling reason to upgrade from DVD to Blu-ray.

And that's it.. and I'm thinking that the ability to access all movies from your couch without going anywhere and even in HD even if not "PERFECT" to 1080p appearance would make you upgrade. That's a clear advantage over both DVD and Blu-ray, right?

Blu-Ray gone in 5 years, maybe, it's possible, look how fast DVD's got replaced once they got cheap to consumers.
About 10 years.

Blu-Ray may last as discs can hold up to 100GB or more in the future which may lengthen the timeframe but what's next?
I would say Flash cards. Digitial downloads will never work seeing that ISPs are starting to put caps on the internet use.
Rogers, Bell, Comcast, etc etc are putting them on and more. So that'll slow it down I think. If that wasn't in the cards I could see it happening.
Maybe a better compression for HD video will come out, mkv's are good but could the compress it more for companies to stream video?

In Blu-ray's world, for quality I mainly see a huge difference when it comes down to DVD vs 1080P FULL HD. 720P doesn't look that much better than DVD in my view. But then again 720 vs 1080 isn't that big of a difference. Really it's all about bragging rights and a nice flat panel TV in the room, and it does look nicer than a boxy TV by far (contrast, brightness, etc).

Sorry Boz, I don't see this happening in America in 5 years. We have too slow of connections and people are still on Dial-up. Even if we do get faster connections they will likely over price it like they all ways do so not that many people will get it for Digital Downloads only. Also some people want Physical Media still and will most likely want it in 5 years also. So in my aspect I do not see Blu-Ray dieing in 5 years for Digital downloads.

Wow, I think I missed the party!

Boz, you know where I stand on this, boo downloads, yay optical. I only request you stop using the word 'fanboy', some of us find it quite rude.

We all know where threads like this end up anyway. Bluray has currently parralleled DVD in price as well as popularity. and 7 years into the DVD lifetime we started looking for the next format. I wouldn't be suprised if we started looking at 1440p+ tv's and blurays to support it (can't see why not, just needs a revised standard). One thing we can be certain of, downloads will be restricted until ISP's get their finger out their ass, sort their networks and stop oversubscribing the connections.

I wouldn't be surprised if it were gone by then, im surprised we still got it, or even bothered with it.

Optical has so many advantages over downloads, I can see only one advantage of downloads:

optical:
Higher bitrates
better audio
extras
no downloads needed
can just pick it up and take it to a mates
NO drm (I'm happy for them to protect the disc content, I don't like not being able to copy a download though)
impulse purchasing, my favourite!
great for building a movie library

Downloads:
don't have to go out and buy a disc
huge hit on your monthly bandwidth allowance, which most of us have (some ISP's don't but they have a 'ghost' cap they don't tell the customers)
pita to copy to portable storage, if they allow that.
most download services are rental, I want to own my copy, not have it deactivate after x days.
often quicker to buy the optical disc than download it.
Because of the rental system, you cannot really build a collection.

Maybe Beyond HD. Just that there are no TVs to support that resolution.

Blue-Ray is going to be here for some time. People don't buy BR movies because of the players' prices (currently the best available is the PS3, and often people like something else than a gaming console for watching movies). When the BR players get cheaper, sales of BR movies will start to rise up seriously.

One other thing, I'm betting any difference in cost will be offset because of the need for new HDD's every so often.

maybe 10 years time, 15 at a push. put certainly not 5.

Its not really an issue, movies are compressed that much you could fit a few hundred on a 250gb hdd. Thats one thing that annoys me about these online video streaming/purchasing, why should i pay near DVD/Blu-Ray prices when i dont get a box or a disc, i dont get any extras, i dont get to copy the file wherever i want to back it up and that its compressed from 7gb in dvd sizes to 800mb-1Gb or from 30Gb Blu-ray to 4-5Gb video.

The best example I've seen of HD compression are mkv rips, and they're barely touching upon the quality you get out of a avc/vc-1/mpeg2 25/50gb encoded disc.

I don't think downloads will take off until we can stream it off the mark, not start the movie and have it buffering for an hour.

Yes i agree, i buy Blu-Ray discs and create a digital format that i have full control over what codec i use, what bitrate, what audio, any subtitles, if i want i can also rip the extras then they are archived on my media server that has 2x 1Tb drives. They arent a touch on the 1080p format on the disc but they are very close considering the file sizes.

These online buying and renting services are limited to what codecs they pay a licence for and then only if that codec supports the restrictive DRM the studios stipulate they must use, they use commercial encoding software which dont support all the features of the codecs standards so you get a blurry mush with compressed audio sometimes you get subtitles sometimes you dont, no extras, etc.. and to add insult you pay near DVD prices for the privilidge. Online will never take off as long as physical media is around.

Well DVDs were around long enough before anyone started buying them, and as ppl have already said, what will replace them? HD-DVD is gone, and downloads will never take off in places like the UK with its EXCELLENT web infrastructure (dunno about the US).

Also I don't think many people will be patient enough to wait several hours for the huge downloads, and if they do the ISPs will all start throttling traffic e.t.c.
And anyway, I'm sure if Blu-Ray is too expensive (which it is IMHO), the DVD marked won't just stumble over and die if there's still a demand.

And finally, they have no excuse to push up the price of Blu-Ray disks themselves, cos I read here that they cost no more to produce than a standard DVD!!

About downloads, HD Content downloading in Australia... not for a long time...
But, technology is moving fairly fast at the moment so perhaps Blu-Ray may be replaced by then. Personally, though, I don't see the need, DVD still looks fine, but I haven't seen HD in action so I can't say completely.

Little off-topic maybe: (just trying to help)
DVD-A is DVD-Audio and SaCD is Super audio CD. Both audio formats, so I guess it's natural you didn't hear of these "video" formats (j/k mate).

Here is a little more info if you are interested:
DVD-A Wiki and SaCD Wiki.

Wow Boz, you really don't let it go do you?

Everything BluRay to you is like Satin or something? I have never known anyone to have so much love for a format (HD DVD).

You seriously need to let it go, BluRay won, HD DVD lost. Who cares what might of happened if HD DVD won, it didn't, let it be.

But in regards to the topic...........

BluRay might be gone by 2012 its 4 years away and it BluRay would be 6 years old...........something bigger and better could be out in that time as technology is rapidly evolving.

Like others have said, Downloads might be even bigger by then (but me personally I dont think downloads will be mainstream by then and also the fact that most people like to buy something and get given it in physical form whether its by a BluRay or DVD).

So many things can happen in 4 years with technology.

This could of turned in to a good discussion but you just can't take this post in that sort of way when it's coming from the biggest HD DVD fan in the world and was probably started at flame bait.

everythings going to move to solid state anyway, the use of discs will become obsolite in years to come.

With progressively quicker data speeds and more things available in digital format, iPod is all downloaded etc. stores will turn into data banks, plug your flash drive in, pay the fee, transfer the data and walk out.

Do you know how many tons of CD's are thrown every year in the UK alone? massive!

Why limit yourselves to mechanical items which can break, cost money (again and again and again) and pollute when you can move to something that fits on your key ring and will hold you favorite cd's.

SSD & Flash storage will become so cheap that Optical will be finished.

I'd like to see digital downloads instead of flash storage or memory cards...i personally love how the 360 works in terms of movie downloads etc. all we need is companys creating digital tv units from which you can download movies to, much like the 360 movie system. would be great.

I'll try to share my opinion on why I completely disagree with you (btw, all of the below goes for HD DVD too but the only advantage HD DVD had over Blu-Ray was readiness to take mainstream much faster as it relied on DVD manufacturing):

Higher bitrates
irrelevant for 95% of people just as long as quality is good enough. That and the fact that technology in compressions and codecs is constantly improving that a 4mbit/s in VC1 looks stunningly good. 10mbit/s looks the same as 20mbit/s with good AVC or VC1 encoding.

better audio
People listen to sound on their TV speakers for the most part or they buy all in one systems as they are cheap. On these there's no way you hear a different in audio so it's completely irrelevant. For you to really appreciate the sound that Blu-Ray offers you need to spend several thousand on speakers and audio video receiver. Something that only a niche audience has.. One of the reasons why it's definitely understandable that Blu-Ray is thought to remain within niche audience both price wise and for the amount of money you need to shell out in order to really experience really miniscule differences for the most part.

extras
As pointed out by numerous Blu-Ray fans even here on Neowin, extras were totally irrelevant when we made comparison that HD DVD offered this, now it's an important thing? It is a good bonus but with internet connectivity with devices, these extras will all be available online anyways, not to mention as free downloads such as XBL has (like interview commentaries etc etc)

no downloads needed
If you think for constant firmware updates for BD+ and constant problems with new titles then I wouldn't say you are totally going to avoid online access anyways.

can just pick it up and take it to a mates
This is of course true, however if you scratch the disc running to your mate, you lost your copy, not to mention that you mate needs to have a Blu-Ray player too. So it's completely a moot point.

NO drm (I'm happy for them to protect the disc content, I don't like not being able to copy a download though)
impulse purchasing, my favourite!

No Drm?!?!?!?! Are you kidding me? There's no way to backup the disc, without breaking the law (that's $250,000 fine). Most people don't want to break the law. You screw it up it's DONE! You need to pay another $20-$30. With digital there's no such problem.

great for building a movie library
Requires space, collects dust, most movies you will not even watch twice. 1tb disc is $150 today and can fit a 100 HD movies at full capacity with no compression (if it's from Blu-Ray), if it's downloadable and optimized it can fit 2-3 times more. Huge convenience and it's very obvious that people are stopping to buy optical media anyways, people rent more then ever because they don't want to stack discs when they want to see them 2-3 times in their life. Digital download give you access to full libraries at your fingertips for a few bucks. Even you saw a movie 2-3 times in your life, you'd pay less then what you pay for a disc.


don't have to go out and buy a disc

This is a bad thing? You also forgot to say that you don't have to pay additional nonsense costs for packaging, replication and stuff for the movies with downloads as you do with optical media.

huge hit on your monthly bandwidth allowance, which most of us have (some ISP's don't but they have a 'ghost' cap they don't tell the customers)
This will and is not going to be a problem in the long run. It maybe now because companies are trying prolong investements that will undoubtably come, but FCC is already giving hell to Comcast for it. This will be taken care of by the market anyways. I don't know what situation is in UK, but it will not stop the technology progress either way. I know people who say they use downloads just fine in UK and reported to me that they have even faster connections then what I have here in the States. So take it for what it is.

pita to copy to portable storage, if they allow that.
Already possible. You can backup anything legally for the most part to an external media. You can't play it with anything else but it's accessible and you can back it up.


most download services are rental, I want to own my copy, not have it deactivate after x days.


Why? Because you are used to have a stack of discs on your shelf that looks pretty? There's no point of owning a movie if you access to it 24h a day. That's the whole point. It's cheaper for you if you rent it then own it considering how many times you REALLY watch that movie and how much you pay for it. People have already shown that they don't want to own anymore. Rapid decline in sale is what draw studios to try Blu-Ray. Now, they are aware that Blu-ray might be done in a few years so they are already supporting digital downloads fully. Netflix company has grown incredibly fast thanks to rentals. It's obvious what's the deal and not only obvious but already commented on many times by industry people and studios.


often quicker to buy the optical disc than download it.


Not really.. I can't go to the store and back in 10 mins for the time it takes for my Vudu or XBL to cache the movie and starts playing.


Because of the rental system, you cannot really build a collection.


Again.. why? You built collections because it was inconvenient always to go to the rental store to pick up a movie so it was more convenient for you to just buy it have it if you like it. With digital downloads this is completely eliminated thus no need for people to really own a disc.


But here's why optical is obsolete and digital downloads are much better, effective, flexible and convenient:

1. Slow read time and expensive write discs at the moment. Even if it reaches lower prices and when it does as always it will be too small when compared to other storage devices

2. No way to back it up LEGALLY. If your disc gets screwed you have to buy a new copy.

3. It doesn't last forever.. files do as they are digital (you can always back them up to ANY new medium)

4. Regional coding that is purely there to screw consumers

5. You have to carry the disc if you want to watch content at someone else's house.

6. Fixed quality. With digital downloads as infrastructure grows you the quality of movies will by evolution improve without any cost to you since you will always rent and watch the latest version of that movie. For optical you will either have to buy a new player or rebuy a disc which in both cases is good.

7. Overall storage. As I said, 1tb drives are $150 in a year they will be even bigger for less not to mention that in the next 5 years all new flash disks, wireless USB at hi speeds, home servers etc etc will all become extremely cheap and mainstream. Who needs optical in that case? I can tell you it sure is not me.

8. Fixed content on the disc. With digital downloads content can always expand without republishing new discs. Not with optical. They have to replicate and package and then RESELL the new version. Of course you are expected to double dip or triple dip. Awesome! Not.

9. Much easier to author, publish a movie with minimal costs for studios. They make better money by renting on per user basis and it's revolving then spending money to package, market, replicate optical media. It's win win for everyone. Studios make a bunch of money and user get to watch movie on-demand for overall cheaper price then if he bought a disc for $25 or more.

10. Better for ENVIRONMENT!


Think about it. I'm sure you'll realize this when you experience downloads more and more.



The only problem is that people have to buy a technology for it to become cheaper and that's not happening. Simple economics.

Samsung dude is totally right.. I've heard this a while back but now it's starting to get more public.

That's were I see it going along with digital downloads through your internet connection. It's the only way to make it work because everyone will not have fast internet. Walking into a store with a flash drive and copying over the movie, cd or game is the future.

Thread Cleaned

Guys, please keep this on topic. When it gets to the stage when I have to remove 16 posts from a thread, it's gone way too far.

Seriously. wow. You believe all that as well, don't you?

I'm willing to bet a huge chunk of dvd's are bought on a whim during the weekly shop etc, can't do that with downloads. physical media is more impulsive imo.

I believe the 250GB limit has always been in place however when people exceeded this limit they were cut off people complained and requested the information to know how much they can download a month before being cut off so they stated 250GB

so the limit has always existed just never on display

^ I have no sources for this information its just what i gathered from reading the article a few days ago

The same with DVD, HD DVD and with downloaded things. They have number of times it can be copied some even opened. Actually DRM on downloaded things is 10x nastier than of a physical disc.




You can store it on a external media but you can't play it anywhere else. While a physical disc allows me to take it to a friends house to watch. Or it has a number of times I can play, or number of places I can play. I bought it I should be able to play it w/e I want, when I want, how many times I want.

For what you are saying can have any chances, a lot of things have to change before.

And how is this good for you? YOu spend money on something you probably won't watch 3 times in your life.

Owning in general is illogical with future technology that's the whole point.

I don't have problems paying $3-$4 to watch a movie. I know I'll probably watch it like 5 times during the lifetime of that media anyways so I'll end up paying in rentals the same as I would for that disc version, only with downloads I will always have the latest version to pick from and whatever changes might've been applied to the disc. With optical I have to rebuy a new version if I want an extended cut or something. How is that better I don't know?

Sure you don't have to buy anything, but that's not the point right? It's all about freedom of selection and convenience of access.

Are you the benchmark or the norm for video rental and watching thesedays?

I buy films i want to watch over and over and over again, just because you would only watch it 5 times doesnt mean everyone else is the same as you.

I can still find VHS recorders in stores... BluRay won't be gone so soon. New formats will emerge obviously, but previous generation "winners" always stick around for a while.

I like owning physical media to watch over and over again, of course, only those that really deserve it.
----

I think renting is excellent for movies/tv shows that only make sense watching once or twice. I'd probably rent a season of Lost, but would never buy it. After watching it once, it looses all the excitement. Seinfeld and Family Guy (personal taste) are the complete opposite. I can watch them 100+ times and still get a laugh.

That's why I think media such as DVD, BluRay, [next format]+ will always have a market.

some sort of format that allows you to "rent" or buy movies via internet, without leaving your home, in HD

I'm not the benchmark and have not said so but business trends are. Rentals are stronger and stronger, sales are weaker and weaker. Netflix and others have grown at incredible rate because consumers want to rent more. Having convenience of all titles at your fingertips makes owning obsolete. The panic among studios because of declining sales was obvious even 2 years ago..that's why they wanted new type of approach to try to rejuvenate sales, unfortunately 2-3 years ago digital downloads weren't really that ready, but now they are adding more and more movies to digital delivery because they can see the potential.