Whenever I go to stores now and browse through the Blu-ray section, there's quite a bit of people now. Before, the Blu-ray section used to be almost empty. Now, it seems like more people are there. In fact, there are times when it's a bit crowded and annoying. Does this mean Blu-ray is becoming popular now? I keep hearing rumors that Blu-ray will most likely become the next laserdisc.

UGH.. why am I not surprised that you were the topic starter... yes.. its popular.. and no one can know if its going to be the next laserdisc... chances of it being so are slim...

Here is some info from the release of Watchmen

As we reported on our previous post, a full 36 percent of disc sales of Warner's 'Watchmen' have been on Blu-ray. This is a record-breaking figure, even for action movies. For example, back in September 2008, 'Iron Man' got "only" 17% of its sales from Blu-ray. The previous BD percentage record was for 'Quantum of Solace', released March 24, 2009, which got 28%.

This feat is all the more remarkable if we consider that the DVD had both one- and two-disc editions, and that an Ultimate Collector's Edition Blu- ray has been announced for later this year.

Edit #2 - some laserdisc info... in its 17 year life span by 1998 there were only 16.8 million player in homes worldwide... I think we already passed that in blu-ray players (including ps3)

According to Swicker & Associates, Blu-ray Disc software sales in the United States and Canada were 1.2 million in 2006, 19.2 million in 2007, and 82.4 million in 2008

Edit - Is there a reason you are so negative..? Didn't you just buy a blu-ray player recently?

Blu-ray is the next step after DVD, bar none. I think up until recently the players were too expensive for most people to decide to purchase one, either that or they didn't have an HDTV to use it on, so there wasn't a need yet. The player may only be $200, but the TV they want may be $800, TV comes before the player in those cases because the TV or the DVD player will upscale until then at least. Now that the prices on HDTVs and Blu-Ray players are falling we're going to see a lot more usage of the BD format.

I dont see it being more popular until the price of the ps3 goes down alot or someone sales a blu-ray player for under $50.

It was always going to get more popular as player prices come down and more HDTVs get bought - As for how popular quite frankly who gives a ****, if I and others interested get day 1 releases of HD (Blu Rays) with the DVD and the market booms enough to finance itself its just a case of buy what copy you want and enjoy the movie.

Both formats can co-exist easily, wanting to only see one or the other makes no sense.

Hasn't interested me yet, I just wait for films on TV or buy them on DVD which is cheaper. I can see the difference but it doesn't really do enough for me to upgrade. I'm just not bothered about HD movies.

Nope, it's not going to be popular as long as BluRay player prices are so high....

One of the things that scares Sony is the advance of USB disk drives. They are getting cheaper and faster and soon will get USB 3.0.
I dont think that it will be too long before we start seeing HD movies on USB sticks. Most of the new TVs come with USB ports anyway, and it's just a matter of time before they include a video and audio encoder to play those HD movies....

IMHO DVD/BluRay players are things of the past.

HD streaming and Portable Media Drives such as USB stick drives are the future..


Cheers

Oh, sorry. I didn't know I was breaking any rules. I'm surprised the moderators didn't tell me anything. Oh well. I won't start any new topic here anymore. There are many other forums out there where they allow me to ask any question I like. I'll just ask them over there from now on. Sorry for the trouble. The moderators may close this topic, if they want.

Yes, I got my Blu-ray player a little over two months ago.

I have seen a few Blu Ray movies selling for ~$15.



Those are some impressive figures.

Yes I totally can't wait to own 40 USB sticks instead of 40 nicely printed discs in cases.

I'll give you streaming getting popular, it really will as broadband connections improve and we get systems delivering HD quality that isn't compressed out the ass, but USB sticks has to be one of the worst predictions I've heard in a long time.

it won't become a new laserdisc, but it won't be DVD IMO.

They expect that Blu-ray marketshare will be up to 15% of the market by next year. By 2013 it is kind of optimistically estimated that it might account for about 50%.

The problem is that optical media as means of delivering content is declining and Blu-ray is not able to compensate for the downfall and we have streaming/VOD growing at a rapid pace with it being integrated in TVs, players and consoles it only adds to uncertainty.

That's a direction I always thought media would go but held back with per disc/drive cost. If they overcome that, hard to hold it back but I don't know if the cost of USB sticks will ever be low enough to hand out willy nilly like discs. I imagined walking into a store with your own usb stick and copying over whatever movie, game, music you want from kiosks then copying to whatever devices at home you have. That way retail survives along with digital distribution but both pushing technology and services forward.

Thanks for the meaningful comment kiddo.

You should be able to buy the HD movie just like buying Itunes music.
It is up to you about how you want to store it.
AS prices go down you should be able to get 128GB+ USB drives that will hold around 30+ HD movies.
why would I want to keep a selection of discs that might get damaged when I can have my whole movie collection backed up on two chips. I should be able to take it with me when I go anywhere, traveling for pleasure or work.

Plus streaming movies will be the next big thing. It's already becoming popular. ABC, HULU, NEtflix, NBC are all switching to streaming media. It's a matter of time before we start getting HD streaming. Demand eventually will increase and that will drive AT&T and UUNET to upgrade their backbone with Optical Multiplexers capable of OC-192 and more bandwidth.

The cables are already laid out, they only need to upgrade the backbone.

Maybe where you live, but definitely not in the UK.

As for wanting your 30 movies on one USB stick, good luck with that an DRM, all the set top boxes that stream HD content right now are proprietary, look at the 360 and PS3, if you buy a movie on either of them you must play it back through the 360 or PS3. I'd never buy a movie through either my PS3 or 360 in it's current state.

DRM is something that needs to change for movies and digital, because right now if you own a disc you can rip it to your own DRM free file and/or just take the disc to a mates.

Why would I buy a DRM infested digital copy when I can buy a physical copy and make my own digital copy meaning I own both in the end for the price of one? I admit I would prefer a digital library it's much easier but until these companies allow you to buy something digitally and do whatever you want with it it's early days.

Not what I meant... I just didnt understand why you are so negative about a format that you are now invested in? You held off on switching to HD, you seem happy you made the switch, you picked up a blu-ray player fairly quickly and I think you have been impressed with some of the movies.. so I just didnt know why you would even entertain the idea of a rumor that is basically complete nonsense..

If digital copy isn't successful, how on earth is HD movies on USB sticks going to be any better?

Well I was referring to the backbone in the United States. I am not familiar with U.K. although I dont see reason not to switch if there is profit to be made.

About the DRM... it will change.. anyhow it's been only in the last few years that started playing such an important role in digital media but they'll have to flex and adjust to match the media and technology at stake.
They might add an encrypted signature key that will match the encryption key of your TV or other media player like laptop or PC registered to the same user, so you can not Pirate or redistribute movies illegally.

There are many options.... try to think out of the box.

That's the thing, there isn't.

BT aren't going to pay out their backsides to replace the 'whole' UK network, our Governments pushed so hard for the LLU switch over here allowing ISPs to run things their own ways marginalising BTs profits, therefore it's just not in BT's best interests to be going and upgrading our current networks to super fast speeds.

The ISPs can offer us cheap broadband through LLU, but they are limited to the network infrastructure BT has in place. So yeah in London you might get 24/50MBps, but the majority of the UK is probably on 2-4mbps.

As for DRM options, the only one I'll accept is what I have right now, I buy a movie on a disc and I can play it anywhere, on the PC, on my player, on my friends player. Until I can do that with a digital copy the restrictions aren't worth it because I can rip my own disc to a file I can play anywhere right now.

I think you are missing the point.. physical delivery is going away.. that model is on decline and requires additional costs of production and what not..

I certainly won't keep my movies on USB, but on hard drives or NAS devices or whatever.. just like you do with music. There's absolutely no difference except size which is really not a problem anymore either.

The future is in downloads/streaming/VOD.. there's no doubt about that, the only question is how long optical media will stay on the market. It might be very much a while, but the efforts from studios and content providers will definitely lean digital downloads/streaming/VOD way.

Every single CE manufacturer now offers streaming in their devices. Panasonic just added Amazon VOD to their TVs and Blu-ray players, LG just added Vudu to their TVs, Samsung uses Netflix and so on.. most of these (Vudu, Amazon VOD, Netflix, Xbox 360, PS3) will, or already do, offer full 1080p instant-on in the next couple of months too so the quality is also rapidly increasing. Only last year we didn't even have 1080p HD streams, now we do. As speeds of broadband increase at people's homes (which they do actually at a decent pace as well) your quality is automatically upgraded with streaming/downloads/VOD. RIght now 1080p Instant-On might not be as good as Blu-ray but next year or year after that it might be, the thing is that most people are very satisifed with even 720p HD from XBL and on smaller sets the resolution thing becomes less relevant. Only a small amount of people actually appreciate Blu-ray, which was always the case with niche formats and those who demand the highest quality. To come really close to Blu-ray quality with new technology streams need be around 10mbps. So you'll probably need 20mbs cable connection and I don't think it will be a problem in a short while.

What I've noticed is that a lot of studios like RedBox too. And a lot of people asked themselves why? But it becomes pretty obvious when you realize that people don't own discs as much as they used to and actually prefer renting. If that's the case, then streaming/subscription services along with RedBox model is definitely where it's going.

It's all about renting and optical media can't survive if people just rent. That's why there's a decline.

Ask how many people on this forum, own a PS3 or Blu-ray and they barely ever buy Blu-rays but only rent. I can tell you from the people I see around me that have Blu-ray, most of them actually rent and only buy certain movies and that REALLY has to be a good movie to warrant a high price of Blu-ray purchase for example.

^+1 Nice post +boz, absolutely agree with you.

Remember MiniDisc. Yeah ... It's an upgrade where an upgrade wasn't needed. Save your money.

I'm seeing more and more shop space dedicated to blu ray, it appears to be increasing in popularity.

I'm not convinced the way forward is digital delivery, people like something in their hands to justify their money. Until this changes I don't think boxed media will dissapear.

I know several retailers are bumping up their retail floor space for Blu Ray. Best Buy is going to be bumping up to somewhere around 30% - 35% of their total movie space just for it company wide. Walmart has also been expanding space.

Physical media isn't selling as well as it used to because people are downloading illegally. When I'm at work, they're about 3 people I know that admit to me that they do it. I tell them to buy or rent a certain movie because it's good. They're reply is: "Ah! That's a waste of money. I can just download it for free."

That's right. People are "illegally" downloading movies now, which is why physical media is declining in sales. The same happened with music. You don't honestly think that EVERYONE with Ipods have songs on them that are all legally copied. Very few people download their music and pay for them. The same will happen with movies. Why people would pick a ****ty DivX video over a nice, beautiful looking Blu-ray video in HD is beyond me.

Trust me. If storage will overtake Blu-ray, or even DVDs for that matter, they would've done that with music. Everyone listens to music on their Ipod or computer using memory. But they still refuse to ditch CDs despite its HUGE decline in sales. Apparently, no matter how successful memory-based media becomes, they will always try to have one physical media out there available as an option.

Uhh I'm pretty sure those people are picking a nice 1080p DTS supported MKV rip, not a DivX encode... just saying, you know, Blu Rays do get pirated.

Where digital distribution can curve piracy from the digitally inclined is by offering high quality access at any time DRM free encodes (im not talking streaming 1080p, I'm talking maximum quality 1080p encode to download whenever you need it). Some people just need a little encouragement to buy something, they don't necessarily want to pirate everything.

I don't want to own discs any more for films, like I don't want cds for music, but I ain't touching digital until the DRM is gone and encodes offer me completely transparent video and audio quality. Why? Well as I've explained if you buy a Blu Ray movie on disc you can rip it yourself to those standards. May mean the film ends up on your hard drive and the Blu Ray on a shelf, but that's fine with me till digital distribution sorts it's act out. I'd rather own two copies of my movie and go through the hassle of ripping the movie to my hard drive than own some "contracted" digital film I only have a license to watch and can't watch on anything else other than my PS3/360/set top box.

VCD - DVD - BD logical progression for physical media? How obvious!

actually i think that blu-ray is more popular than dvd when you consider how long it took DVD to get to the same level of popularity.

What's wrong with that? Think of the physical copy as a backup. I hate to have only one digital copy of a movie. Yikes! If my hard drive gets wiped or something happens where the movie gets accidentally erased, what do I do? Purchase another digital copy??



+1

At least, three years into the format we're seeing some $9.99 movies. When DVDs were three years into the format, we were lucky if we found a $20 movie. And I know because I bought my first DVD player when the format was three years old. It was soooo hard finding a good movie for a decent price. I had only 2 movies on my shelf for a very long time.

You can redownload digital copies as many times as you want.

That scenario though is the best way to do it right now, you end up with a physical copy of the movie and a DRM free digital for probably less than the official digital anyway (digital prices are terrible and shops often have sales on actual Blu Rays).

However the issue for me is encoding, doing a 1:1 rip of a Blu Ray ranges around 20-40GB per movie - Yeah it only takes 30 mins or so to rip the disc, but the space usage is high. If you encode to H264 you can get a completely transparent video file around 7-20GB depending on the quality/size of the source. Encoding takes ages though on my system, we're talking like 7-9 frames a second at times meaning hours, even over a day to encode one film.

That's a pain in the arse since encoding is heavy CPU orientated, even if you run in a low process mode. Where as if I could download a transparent 1080p DRM free digital copy I could easily do that in the background, or through my PS3/360 which wouldn't even interfere with or hog my PC. Not to mention you can pause a download, pausing an encode is not as simple.

Am i the only one who is kinda saddened by the prospect of a medialess future IE no discs and what not?

you can redownload digital copies for so long as the download service continues. but we have seen so many problems with digital downloads shutting down, or the DRM servers being shut down. nothing beats physical copies.

It's not going to be compeltely media-less for a long time, so no need to worry, just enjoy it the way things are.

A dual approach of physical/digital is the best way to make money as some people simply can't support digital only, and other people will always have sentiment in owning something physical. Cutting off either stream drops revenue.

I think that's quite easy to see, but others think we're going to hit digital only fairly quickly for whatever reasons. To me it's pro-consumer to have choice, not to be forced down one avenue.

Wait.. so how are mp3s working then? It's the same thing that's happening with movies, no different.

This is beside the point because people won't own movies in the future anyways. You will have all you can eat subscription and watch movies as much as you want for a fixed amount. That's why everyone is working super fast on increasing the quality of 1080p movies through streaming services.

Vudu just revamped their system to allow progressive/streaming structure for their HDX movies. So you don't have to wait 4 hours to download.
Netflix is already doing the system and they grow at a pace that's simply amazing.
most other VOD are following this moment.

It really begs the question. If you have all-you-can eat subscription where you can pick what movies you want to watch at your convenience.. why would you buy any movies?

Keep this in mind:

I like the all you can eat subscription idea. But I want to consume it in my way being able to watch it on any device, anytime, anywhere and at the quality I want. I can buy a Bluray and rip it for all my devices and store it on my Media server so I can access it from anywhere in the world at any quality I want on the fly.

I don't want to use Vudu's Box. Also my ISP (like pretty much all ISP's these days) have bandwidth caps. If I download more than 3.5GB in the day time I'll get capped. And Vudu's 1080P content will be more than 3.5GB.

Internet delivery just doesn't work and no mater how much more capacity they build in to the Internet it always gets consumed. We will never be able to get on top of internet delivery for everyones needs. Maybe some consumers can be satisfied with the quality and the access methods but no one can get around their providers speed issues and internet caps.

EDIT:// Also I just wanted to add that if any type of All you can eat system would be successful it would be the kind that Netflix run. Internet instant watching for those who want to do that and Bluray/DVD discs for people that want physical media.

But look! CDs are still being in sold in stores. The success of memory-based media doesn't necessarily mean that physical media is going away.




You got that right. BTW, I love your avatar!

Actually you can with digital downloads/streaming. You already can. I watch all my amazon purchases and TV shows along with many other content on any device I have. When everything is in the cloud you can.

Don't forget, you are in fact breaking the law by ripping the Blu-ray disc. The same was with DVD, not to mention the fact that only 10% of people actually knows or is willing to do it.

I'm not arguing that optical has some benefits, but in the overall picture optical media is old technology and the ability to buy plastic to have it sitting on the shelf for your convenience is a model that has already proven to be disliked by more and more people.

Also, you have to wait a long time until you see something on optical media because it has to be prepared, pressed, distributed etc etc. I watch shows for example pretty much day after it was aired and in HD. Sure, it's not Blu-ray but hey it's still great and that's what most people want.



Nobody is forcing you. LG just signed with Vudu to offer streaming of HDX movies directly from your TV. It is a valid point that you might have caps now. Nobody is disputing that. Streaming/DL/VOD in general have some kinks to work out and it's still growing but the caps and those issues will be resolved. When there is money there's a will to expand. If you read that article thing I posted streaming/subscription services already make 20 times the money then traditional pay-per-view model. It is really not hard to see that studios will actually support this and invest money into and cable companies will catch up and will have to losen the cap issues. It's all about the $$.



I don't know.. I disagree.. Internet delivery does work for me. I enjoy all the HD from various sources (Vudu, Netflix, XBL, PS3) without any issues and I'm very satisfied. Sure, I still rent and watch Blu-rays for some movies I want the best quality but over the course of past year the quality of streaming and downloads have increased several times in my eyes and what I see.

As I said, it's all about the money. Caps and bandwith throttling with some providers is out of fear and inertia to upgrade their infrastructure, but I've already read many articles where everyone (from government to studios and others) are pretty much forcing them to stop doing it. I have no reason to believe that this problem will not go away.

I personally have not had any issues. I have a 25mbps connection, I download HD all day long and use legal services and never had a cap or anything of sorts. And I"m on Cox Communications.



That's where everything is going. Netflix model. I don't mind pay-per-view either, but it has been shown that it's pretty expensive and subscription model is much more successful.

Blu-ray or DVD will not go away for a long time but in the next 5 years I'm pretty sure we will see equal amount of consumers using VOD/Streaming subscriptions/DL as Blu-ray and DVD together. So about 50% maybe and as that model grows eventually it will overcome optical media.

The point of this thread though is that Blu-ray is growing, but IMO will not have a chance to reach the level of DVD and by 2013 DL will start overtaking optical media (I think I read somewhere).

The reality though is that by the latest reports DL/VOD/Streaming have made more money ~$1 billion while Blu-ray made around $400 million. It's fairly logical to see where the next wave on investments will go.


Here, I'll give you another very interesting article. It seems that on Sony PS3 (which is the major Blu-ray driving force) is seeing incredible surge in VOD/DLs. It's actually most likely that a lot of people are starting to use VOD/DL thorugh PS3 then actually getting Blu-ray.





True. No argument there, but it will be on decline until it goes away. CDs are still popular in many places but do you really know a lot of people who still buy them? I sure don't, but maybe I'm around different people.

I mean everyone (I mean analysts and others who are objective) claim the same thing. Optical media as it is going to remain a player for a long time but the decline will continue until it's extinct just like any other technology. VHS took time to get phased out and even today you have Panasonic making Blu-ray player with VHS

So yes, you are right, you will still be able to buy optical media but as more and more people switch to internet based delivery thorugh their TVs and other devices you will find less and less need to buy discs. It is still valid to make discs for those who don't have the ability to enjoy internet based access but those numbers will keep shrinking IMO.

Here's also an interesting article on recent happenings and a large movement towards digital distribution from pretty much all major players:




As you can see, there seems to be a lot of companies that are now working together. It's not hard to predict that they all might merge under one umbrella, especially if Amazon buys Netflix.

That's not true for everybody, I hate when people generalize! It depends in which country you live; we are not all Americans you know, laws differ from one country to another.... Here it is totally legal to make backups of your Blu-Ray/DVD.

Also, I would NEVER pay for a streaming service.... never ever... and for multiple reason:
First, I can't see streaming going as high as Blu-Ray goes regarding bitrates. Most (respectable) Blu-Ray release idle at around 25+Mbps at 1080p. I certainly don't want to go back to stone age and get lower bitrates than this, or even worst, like 720p/1080i crappy resolution. Quality is the main reason why I was not buying DVD's before and that is making me buy Blu-rays now; I just don't want to take a step back in this aspect.
Second, I barely watch American movies. Now, some will say, what does this have anything to do with this topic... well, I bet you that most of those streaming service will only offer a very small catalog of foreign movies, and that the flix offered will very much resemble what is being offered today at Blockbuster (and others). I want to be able to watch any Chinese, Korean, Japanese and French movies I want, but I am pretty sure that streaming services will be very limited on that side.

In conclusion, I really don't mind if I have to go with digital copies, but I want to be able to own a copy on my Hard Drive and I want decent bitrate and resolution... no the kind of thing I see now with the current streaming services.

My 2 cents

1080i is the exact same resolution as 1080p, 1920x1080...just so you know.

The players are still pretty expensive. And you need an HDTV to view one properly as well... so I think it will be a while yet. I think eventually they will be mainstream, but as I said, it will be a while. I buy Blu-Ray whenever I can. I have my PS3 hooked up to my HDTV in my living room. I also have a Blu-Ray drive on my PC, along with an HDTV tuner, It's pretty nice.

Although I got a SONY laptop that has Blu-Ray I honestly have not seen much of a difference in in the quality of the media to be compelling enough to replace my existing library of standard DVD's. Honestly I rather buy content online rather than buy the disc's anymore. Yes it's nice to have the hard copies but the technology is getting so reliable that it's almost not worth the additional cost's of buying physical media. My laptop is not brand spankin new but it's not too old either. It's a SONY VGN-AR730 but no slouch either.

Boz, I think you’re forgetting a major player in order for Digital Distribution to take off. The ISPs. And every indication so far is, their having none of it. ISPs are actually moving backwards technologically. Rather than updating their aging infrastructure, their imposing limits and stifling the technology that would make DD a viable option. Fois internet service is very limited right now and DOCSIS 3 has only hit 20% of the US. 40% of US homes don't even have brodband!

Unless the FCC gets on ISP's backs, the internet is going to rot.

You got that right, rather than invest they like the cellular companies want to bilk the consumer's out of the most money for as long as they can without investing in new technologies and infrastructure because it's "good enough" that's not the answer but with the global economy in shambles they are putting this stuff on the back burner until the economy pick's up, at least I hope so.

...but interlaced thus not full frame... interlaced footage is One of the main reason why I never went for the DVD format.

That's the thing.. from articles I have read they will start regulating cable companies in terms of capping access to internet. It will happen but even if they don't the economy of the market will force them to. I have no doubt about that.

As for 40% of US Home not having broadband, that's still higher then the number of households in the States that have HDTV which is now 50%

As I see it broadband is growing faster then HDTV because it is a necessity and this administration is making it a priority for various reasons.

...on a laptop...... yeah, obviously if your running at a ridiculous resolution you won't really see the difference. Though, if you were watching on a 46+inch screen, then that would be another story.

Ugh... here we go again.

Blu-ray is here to stay.

Digital distribution is still a ways out... don't start banging the drum quite yet. Atleast we got a few of you to quit clinging to HD-DVD.

Well I wasn't generalizing.. I was just responding to Vice's comment about ripping Blu-ray and I think he is in the States or Canada. Maybe I'm wrong but I think he is.



Well considering that you can have Netflix and other services for like $10 a month or less, I don't see why you wouldn't want it. A lot more people are using Netflix on XBox or Roku or through their BLu-ray players or their TVs.

One thing that's important to mention is that obsession with bit-rates is unwarranted. In the format war days, HD DVD had actually about 20mbps usable bitrate and every single reputable review site showed that quality was equal to Blu-ray.

I mention this because you don't need 50mbps bitrate to get top quality with the new compression technologies. They are achieving same quality as Blu-ray through VC1 or other encoders at 12-15mbps and 8-10 mbps is pretty much transparent on 30-55" displays.

It's technological progress, just like you don't need uncompressed audio when you listen to optimized and compressed DTS-MA or True HD without loss of quality but at a much lower bitrate.

In another example, there are plenty of Blu-ray discs that look stunning and have gotten 4 to 5 star reviews and their bitrate for video was around 15mbps. One example from the top of my head is Forgetting Sarah Marshall or 10,000 BC (4 stars and 4.5 stars for video quality) and there are quite a bit of movies like that. I know because I also do backup my Blu-ray discs and make them available for streaming through my PS3. So that's proof that you don't need 30+ mbps bitrate to have excellent HD transfer.

Same here. I don't know anyone that still buys CDs, but regardless, they're still being sold even though sales are very poor. This is because it's the only physical format of music. What I'm getting at is that even though physical media sales may be poor, they still want some format of it available as an option for the few people who want it.

Correct. Except one is interlaced and the other is progressive. In slow moving images, they should look identical, but in 1080i, you can see jaggies during fast moving images. But yes, 1080i will look better on a 1080p TV than on a 720p one due to the resolution match.