bbc Does the PC Have a Future?

[Sir Topham Hatt]

Once upon a time when you wanted to use a computer you sat down in front of a desktop PC, turned it on and got to work.

Then laptops appeared so you could do that work on the sofa, the train or the plane. Then came mobile phones. And the world wide web. And smartphones. And tablets.

The poor PC is getting left behind.

"There was a time when the programs and applications you used only existed on PCs," said Ranjit Atwal, a research analyst at Gartner who watches the PC market. "But that's not the case anymore."

Sales figures suggest that the plethora of those other gadgets are making households reluctant to buy PCs at the moment.

Mr Atwal said Gartner is expecting a "notable" slowdown in the number of PCs consumers buy in late 2011 and 2012. That seems odd given what technological advances and the recession are doing to the desktop PC.

"The PC has become commoditised so it can sell at lower prices," said Mr Atwal. "And that's been exaggerated by the economic downturn. Instead, we're investing in other devices."

Even though the PC is cheap and is getting cheaper, that is not tempting people to pick up a new one. In these tight times, people appear unwilling to spend cash on something they already have. Evidence suggests they are using it to buy the gadgets they do not own - such as tablets and smartphones.

The bad news does not end there. More evidence that the PC is being left behind comes from data gathered by online computer memory store Crucial. It produces software that customers can download and run on their computer to gather information about their system. The retailer uses the tool to advise customers about what they should be buying to beef up their PC. Crucial spokesman Roddy Maclean said the information also offers a snapshot of what is whirring away inside tens of thousands of PCs found up and down the country. The statistics suggest that more and more people are holding on to their ageing PC rather than splashing out on a new one.

"About 50% of the systems upgraded in the last year are about four years old," he said. "That's up from up from 40% last year. Many people seem to be buying a few key parts for their home PC to squeeze more out of it, which makes sense because of the wide variety of tasks people perform with their PC. There's usually some kind of trigger point that makes people upgrade. Often that's frustration that their system has started to slow down or the demands on their system are becoming greater."

"People use their PC as a tool for a much wider variety of applications than ever before," he said. "The desktop PC has become a real workhorse. All of that is driving an increased demand for more computing power and the number of things people are looking to do with their systems," said Mr Maclean.

Even those who build their own PCs and who might be expected to be in a permanent state of renewal are slowing down, said James Gorbold, editor of Custom PC.

"I think the upgrade cycle for upgrade enthusiasts has got slightly longer over the last 3-4 years," he said.

There's one simple reason for this.

"There are less and less games being developed exclusively for the PC," he said. Many more games are now developed for both consoles and PCs.

"Given that consoles are less technologically sophisticated than PCs they will be programmed for the lowest common denominator which, from a commercial point of view, makes sense," he said. "However, it means they are not pushing modern PC hardware."

There's no reason to upgrade, said Mr Gorbold, if a better graphics card, more memory or more powerful chip in your self-built system has no effect on what you see on screen.

Changes may be on the horizon, though.

"There are significant games that are due for release soon and they might be the killer app that drives the upgrade," he said. The graphics heavy games in question are Battlefield 3 and Skyrim, and they could be the titles that prise open the wallets of those hardcore system builders.

Even Gartner is convinced that the PCs will once again find a place in the hearts of consumers. Trends it has picked out suggest PC sales figures will pick up towards the end of 2012.

But, said Mr Atwal, most PC makers would have to work hard to get people to buy.

"The PC has not changed as consumers and users have changed their habits," he said. "One thing the PC makers have not done over the last few years is make products that are innovative in terms of compelling features and novel form factors. There's the need for a fundamental re-think of how we make these gadgets compelling," he said.

Source - BBC

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I upgrade perhaps once every 2-3 years because I feel I could get a better system for not much extra money. But I am finding as I am using my PC for less gaming and more as a tool to process documents, pictures and browse the internet, then I no longer need a super powerful workhorse.

I'd like to upgrade in 2012 (my last upgrade was about 2, maybe 3 years ago), but I don't think I will. Certainly not until the latter part of the year for sure!

[zhangm Supervisor]

The future of PCs might be jeapordized when the question becomes "do I get a console/HDTV/tablet or a PC." A decrease in incremental hardware updates on the part of individuals doesn't constitute a sign that the need for such devices is waning. Sure, it isn't the only desirable hardware out there, but it is still like the stove in your kitchen.

[TheLegendOfMart]

Please Im sick of stupid editorials like this, the PC is going nowhere. Tablets are just another fad in the long line of passed fads. Pocket PCs/PDAs, UMPCs, Netbooks, eventually the market will get oversaturated just like when Netbooks started getting bigger and bigger and started the blur the line between Netbook and Notebook.

[Muhammad Farrukh]

Enough of this **** already.

PC is here to stay and it will.

But, said Mr Atwal, most PC makers would have to work hard to get people to buy.

"The PC has not changed as consumers and users have changed their habits," he said. "One thing the PC makers have not done over the last few years is make products that are innovative in terms of compelling features and novel form factors. There's the need for a fundamental re-think of how we make these gadgets compelling," he said.

Assorted BS.

Sure users have changed their habits but can you play the latest games like BF3, MW3, Skyrim, Crysis on tablets, smartphones?

PC will always have its marketshare no matter what.

'One thing the PC makers have not done over the last few years is make products that are innovative in terms of compelling features and novel form factors'

I don't really understand what he is trying to say here.

Seriously.

What possible innovation can you do with PC?

Novel form factors?

I am sorry but who is this guy?

Is this supposed be some kind of a joke?

[Osiris]

I dont think tablets are a fad, mobile computing is evolving and lower costs and better tech are making it more and more viable however you're not always mobile...and its not without its disadvantages which may never be overcome due to mobility so a desktop isnt going anywhere, particularly in business.

I agree though I am getting sick of these editorials too, and innovative PC form factors? lulz much.

[Lastwebpage]

I see nothing on the horizon that will change this. The last innovation that force the users to buy a new PC, maybe, was the DVD Player. The only other reasons why people buy new PCs are games, maybe. Windows? You can run Windows 8 on a better Windows XP PC.

NO, something new, that the users want, must coming before anything change in the PC market.

[Ace]

I don't get the point of these articles. The TV didn't replace radio, so why should tablets replace PCs?

[Sir Topham Hatt]

^ Not yet.

Maybe it is just the BBC, as they were looking to close loads of radio stations.

• For me, I will ALWAYS have a home, desktop PC.
  
• My partner uses a laptop and will continue to do so as she will take that to Uni and such.
  
• I'm not really looking to pick up a tablet as such right now. Unless they become as powerful as a desktop PC.
  
• My smart phone is seriously limited by space so all the "good" games, I cannot play right now.
  

I guess another way to look at it is the Kindle and e-Reader will never replace the book.

[Daedroth]

I highly doubt that the PCs future is in jeopardy.

The market for business computers is absolutely huge, and that isn't likely to change. Home use is going more towards portability, but that isn't the majority of the market (imo).

[ichi]

What possible innovation can you do with PC?

Novel form factors?

Actually I think there has been some attempts at that with the so called "nettops". While they have been mostly low spec devices, some offered features like being able to attach them to the back of your TV using the wall mount screws.

The PC won't be going away any time soon, but the typical dedicated desk for you desktop PC with it's own monitor might be (at least for non-hardcore gaming home use), and considering you hardly ever directly interact with your PC box hardware I'd think most people would take a concealed box or a small stylish one (eg. like Dell's bamboo finished PC) over the classic PC tower.

[mudslag]

The PC is here to stay, period.

[Chicane-UK Veteran]

Um.. and what are businesses going to use? I'm here with a full suite of applications open including office utilities, remote management tools, ssh sessions, VMware workstation, etc...

The PC isn't going anywhere.

[Phouchg]

Threads about PC having no future oficially sook.

[protocol7]

Do sensationalist web editorials have a future?

[Joey S]

PC's will become a niche market. Sure, you'll have a small percentage of people (programmers, designers) etc using them, but not the market we have today. With the advent of increasing powerful and productive mobile devices, the PC market will undoubtedly slump even further. That's why Microsoft, Intel, Dell, et al are so worried. Their traditional monopolies/revenue bases are being increasingly eroded. I don't see Windows 8 changing this, although many PC OEM's would like us to think so.

[+Gary7 Subscriber²]

Please Im sick of stupid editorials like this, the PC is going nowhere. Tablets are just another fad in the long line of passed fads. Pocket PCs/PDAs, UMPCs, Netbooks, eventually the market will get oversaturated just like when Netbooks started getting bigger and bigger and started the blur the line between Netbook and Notebook.

I agree, I would never use a Tablet. I have no use for it. I am not saying that others don't but these devices will never render the PC obsolete at least in my lifetime.

[mudslag]

PC's will become a niche market. Sure, you'll have a small percentage of people (programmers, designers) etc using them, but not the market we have today. With the advent of increasing powerful and productive mobile devices, the PC market will undoubtedly slump even further. That's why Microsoft, Intel, Dell, et al are so worried. Their traditional monopolies/revenue bases are being increasingly eroded. I don't see Windows 8 changing this, although many PC OEM's would like us to think so.

What makes you think they are worried? Intel is far from limited to just PC's and MS isnt going anywhere. Windows still has a 90% market share. PC's might change a bit but the tablet/phone market wont be able to provide a full PC experience for at least another decade if even that. And for the foreseeable future, there are just to many things that cant be done on a tablet, phone or non windows machine.

Hell my job alone requires me to use a minimum of 3 24" monitors with 2 high powered PC's. Not a single program I use for work will work on anything but windows.

[ahhell]

I agree, I would never use a Tablet. I have no use for it. I am not saying that others don't but these devices will never render the PC obsolete at least in my lifetime.

Bingo. Tablets have their place but there is no way in hell that they will replace desktops.

[Max Norris]

Sure tablet sales will increase, handy devices, but completely replacing a desktop system? (Pick your OS, doesn't matter.) Not going to happen. Way too many things that can't be done or aren't practical on a tablet. Very convenient for some things, but not everything. Just more nonsense rumors, shoot more likely to see the Year of Linux first.

[BryanChung]

This article came at a good time because I am considering to buy myself a new PC or go with a laptop.

[alphaomegainfinity]

PCs are here to stay. There is still no device in sight which can comprehensibly replace the abilities of a personal computer.

[ichi]

Bingo. Tablets have their place but there is no way in hell that they will replace desktops.

Certainly not now, but what if we had tablets with decent specs and wireless multimonitor HDMI?

Not anytime soon, but it seems just logical to eventually replace the beige boxes with something with a more convenient, portable form factor.

Laptops are kinda there, but they are still a bit bulky if you'll be using them with a external display and bluetooth kb and mouse, and also not that comfortable to use while walking.

[Ci7]

• I'm not really looking to pick up a tablet as such right now. Unless they become as powerful as a desktop PC
  

that next to impossible , PC has the edge of "more space" those more powerful Components

unless you say "till they become as powerful as Core 2 Quad!!!" for example then you have limit

[Phalesafe]

Sure the PC is dead for media consumption and internet in the consumer space but anyone trying to accomplish anything still needs a Laptop or Desktop to get them done ie: Adobe Creative Suite, Autodesk Products, Macros in Excel etc. I would be fine with less consumers using PCs I would get tagged less by family to troubleshoot their bull**** for free lol.

[oldaccount1]

PC's will become a niche market. Sure, you'll have a small percentage of people (programmers, designers) etc using them, but not the market we have today. With the advent of increasing powerful and productive mobile devices, the PC market will undoubtedly slump even further. That's why Microsoft, Intel, Dell, et al are so worried. Their traditional monopolies/revenue bases are being increasingly eroded. I don't see Windows 8 changing this, although many PC OEM's would like us to think so.

This is one of the only non-computer-fanboy posts I've seen and it makes the most sense. Desktop growth has been leveling off for a while now and in many markets has rapidly declined. Laptops ARE being cannibalized by tablets and netbooks and to hide behind "it's just a fad" sounds just like the forums back in '98 and '99 when people were saying "we'll ALWAYS have a home and business land line haha mobile phones as your primary phone?!?!!? LOLzZZ!!1!". We ARE moving to a mobile environment. Sure desktops will have their niche. I think it was Jobs who once painted the analogy of the automobile transition: when we were an agrarian society, there were only trucks--but as we moved into being a dominantly urban and suburban culture, cars became much more common place. Like the trucks, desktops will eventually become a niche market but they DO have a future and will always be relevant in certain markets e.g. data analysis, video and photo editing, engineering, etc.