Google+ growing at incredible pace of +20 million users a month

[Boz]

Google+ is adding new users at a very rapid pace. It may be the holidays, the TV commercials, the Android 4 signups, celebrity and brand appeal, or positive word of mouth, or a combination of all these factors, but there is no question that the number of new users signing up for Google+ each day has accelerated markedly in the past several weeks.

Each week my team from elance runs hundreds of queries on various surnames which we have been tracking since July. We revised our model based on the actual user announcements made by Google on July 13th and Oct 13th.

Here is what the tracking shows so far:

July 13 - 10 million

August 1 - 20.5 million

September 1 - 24.7 million

October 1 - 38 million (Larry Page announced "more than 40m users on Oct 13th)

November 1 - 43 million

December 1 - 50 million

December 27 - 62 million

January 1 - 65.8 million (forecast)

February 1 - 85.2 million (forecast)

What is really remarkable is that nearly 1/4th of all Google+ users (24.01% to be precise) will have joined in December alone.

If this rate of new signups (625k daily) continues then Google+ will reach 100 million users on Feb. 25th and 200 million users on August 3. They will finish 2012 with 293 million users.

I expect the growth to continue to accelerate however. Google can continue to integrate Google+ into its other products and word of mouth will continue to build. Most importantly, 700,000 Android devices are activated daily and this will become a very significant source of new users for Google+. That number will also grow next year.

As more users sign up, the value of the network will increase for everyone. The network effect will become powerful. See:http://en.wikipedia..../Network_effect

It won't be long before new users start encountering family and friends as well as the thriving tech and media sharing community that embraced Google+ early on.

And as more Google+ APIs are released next year, developers will be able to build experiences on top of Google+ and make it even better.

Based on the accelerated growth I'm seeing and all the dials and levers Google can still utilize, and the developer ecosystem that will be developed, I predict that 2012 is going to be a breakout year for Google+ and that it will end next year with more than 400 million users.

Also:

Google+ Adding More Than 600,000 New Users EACH DAY

http://www.businessinsider.com/google-is-adding-more-than-600000-new-users-each-day-1-2011-12

[Dot Matrix]

All of this is nonsense and useless without a reputable source.

[thealexweb]

Good to see Google suceeding in the social space, we can't let Facebook establish a monopoly.

[FMH]

That figure is I think is better than Facebook's, which gets around 15 million members every month.

Lets hope they are able to sustain it.

I would love Facebook to get some serious competition.

[Dot Matrix]

Good to see Google suceeding in the social space, we can't let Facebook establish a monopoly.

A monopoly of what, exactly? People's lives?

Google's only in it for the money. Nothing else. They're butt-hurt because Everyone on Facebook is lost advertising revenue.

[Elliott]

I would love Facebook to get some serious competition.

Same here, but I'm really failing to see how Google+ is any better than Facebook.

[FMH]

Same here, but I'm really failing to see how Google+ is any better than Facebook.

The interface is designed better. And the idea of 'circles' is very well-implemented.

But in Apps, Facebook is miles ahead.

Google's only in it for the money. Nothing else.

Isn't it true for every single business, and individual? :)

[Boz]

Same here, but I'm really failing to see how Google+ is any better than Facebook.

Better UI

Hangouts

Circles

Better search with Twitter like hashtags

Open nature of it

Tight integration with all of their services especially with business pages

When APIs are finalized and more and more people own Android phones the growth and the service will become even better and leap frog Facebook

Not to mention the integration of Chrome Store with it that's coming.

People forget, it took years for Facebook to get to 60 million users. Google+ achieved it in mere months. It's not hard to see that 400 million users by end of 2012 is not a far fetched notion at all.

[Dot Matrix]

Isn't it true for every single business, and individual? :)

Yes, but once you realize that Google's bread and butter is advertising, then you wonder why they're *really* in it. To *really* compete with Facebook, or disrupt Facebook, and gain precious adsvertising space?

[thealexweb]

A monopoly of what, exactly? People's lives?

No a monopoly in the social networking industry, Facebook has established a massive one in the UK.

[FMH]

People forget, it took years for Facebook to get to 60 million users. Google+ achieved it in mere months. It's not hard to see that 400 million users by end of 2012 is not a far fetched notion at all.

People forget, it took Google years and several failed attempts, to get it right. :p

[Dot Matrix]

No a monopoly in the social networking industry, Facebook has established a massive one in the UK.

But, is anyone forced into Facebook? They're there because they choose so, and can leave at any point in time. I'd hardly call the "social bubble" monopolistic. After all, MySpace ran solo for how many years, and then died on it's own.

But, If you ask me, competing social sites are going to run thin on the public. Even already, I know many suffering from "social overload".

[hotdog666al]

Google plus will continue to be a joke to me until I can post something to someone else directly.

Lack of direct communication ("Walls") = Useless!

Don't give a **** if Facebook is a monopoly, it's a free service and they keep expanding it for the better.

[johnporter29]

I've just recently closed my Google+ account, Diaspora account and several others, just keeping to facebook as that's where all my friends are.

[HawkMan]

Better UI

Hangouts

Circles

Better search with Twitter like hashtags

Open nature of it

Tight integration with all of their services especially with business pages

When APIs are finalized and more and more people own Android phones the growth and the service will become even better and leap frog Facebook

Not to mention the integration of Chrome Store with it that's coming.

People forget, it took years for Facebook to get to 60 million users. Google+ achieved it in mere months. It's not hard to see that 400 million users by end of 2012 is not a far fetched notion at all.

Facebook has circles, it's called groups and has been there long before G+

Better UI ? it's a direct ripoff of facebook. but I prefer FB anyway

FB has tags as well. what are you talking about...

If anything FB is more open. everything connects to FB and the other way. G+ connects to other google services and devices.

Would rather prefer Google worked on making their stuff open so their crap would work easily with other API's instead of lockign tighlty into the Gogole eco system personally. Look at Live gallery for example. out of the box it connects to Picasa, Live gallery, Facebook, Flickr and you can hook up more with easy to install plugins. PIcasa, connects OOB to Picasa web gallery. to connect to anythign else you need annoyign and far more complicated plugins. at least you did, flickr was a royal bit*h

As for growing. Yes of course google is growing faster. Let's look at some facts.

Facebook started out as a limited service only allowed at ONE university, then slowly opened for a few more universities, then slowly all universities in the US, then worldwide, then fully open. it was never intended to grow fast. since it was fully opened, it's grew faster (mroe users per month) than G+ did at opening though.

Meanwhile G+ was fully opened from day one, except the short beta. Also every google account created by every Android buyer, counts as a G+ account :rolleyes:

Facebook also has a far high active user retention than G+ has.

[bgjerlow]

I seriously doubt Google+ is ever gonna beat Facebook. Facebook simply has superior options on their service, which Google+ simply cannot live up to.

[FMH]

Facebook also has a far high active user retention than G+ has.

That may not be Google's fault per se. For most people it will be because of having no friends on G+.

.

I would call this Google's 'bold mistake': They are trying to take on Twitter and Facebook together!

[Boz]

Facebook has circles, it's called groups and has been there long before G+

Better UI ? it's a direct ripoff of facebook. but I prefer FB anyway

FB has tags as well. what are you talking about...

If anything FB is more open. everything connects to FB and the other way. G+ connects to other google services and devices.

Would rather prefer Google worked on making their stuff open so their crap would work easily with other API's instead of lockign tighlty into the Gogole eco system personally. Look at Live gallery for example. out of the box it connects to Picasa, Live gallery, Facebook, Flickr and you can hook up more with easy to install plugins. PIcasa, connects OOB to Picasa web gallery. to connect to anythign else you need annoyign and far more complicated plugins. at least you did, flickr was a royal bit*h

As for growing. Yes of course google is growing faster. Let's look at some facts.

Facebook started out as a limited service only allowed at ONE university, then slowly opened for a few more universities, then slowly all universities in the US, then worldwide, then fully open. it was never intended to grow fast. since it was fully opened, it's grew faster (mroe users per month) than G+ did at opening though.

Meanwhile G+ was fully opened from day one, except the short beta. Also every google account created by every Android buyer, counts as a G+ account :rolleyes:

Facebook also has a far high active user retention than G+ has.

Most of what you noted came to Facebook after Google+ not before .. especially things like Skype partnership which is completely half assed and Hangouts is light years ahead.

Facebook is scared of Google+ that's without doubt. Google+ immediately was clear would be taking the best things from Twitter and had superior features compared to Facebook when it launched beta and then went public. Facebook was basically try to respond and quickly match those features to remain relevant.

And I have said from the very beginning, Google+ will outpace Facebook in a very short time. We are talking next 2-3 years and Facebook will be start being the new MySpace. G+ already has most tech people. Most tech people, entrepenuers, and tech celebrities are on Google+ and have left Facebook. The network effect will just intensify as Google opens API and more and more people join. If Google+ gains 300-400 million people in 2012, this is the number that will continue to shatter Facebook's userbase.

Btw, the latest news is that Facebook updates have dropped 93% already.

I can bet you that you will be using Google+ more by end of 2012 than you are using Facebook.

[Dot Matrix]

I can bet you that you will be using Google+ more by end of 2012 than you are using Facebook.

No, I'm pretty sure I won't. I don't have time anymore for most of this crap, and quite frankly, it annoys me to no end when people make this kind of stuff a "fad". If/when Facebook falls (Which I doubt will be anytime soon), the social bubble will collapse for most, and that'll be the end of all of this.

And as someone said above, G+ has booming user numbers because of Android, but how many people *actually* use it compared to Facebook? I think Apple's Ping had more users...

[Tech Star]

Lol. I bet most of those are users that sign up for gmail accounts or other google services. I made a new gmail account and it automatically signed me up for G+.

G+ is dead. No one uses it and not enough of a reason to switch from facebook to it because they are more or less the same. Now twitter on the other hand is better than them all.

[44MLX]

Who has Google+ ? :D

[Dot Matrix]

Now twitter on the other hand is better than them all.

I wish Twitter had more than 140 characters. Maybe at least 200? But, I do enjoy Twitter above all. Nice and simple.

[FMH]

Who has Google+ ? :D

Google Inc. ;)

[HawkMan]

Most of what you noted came to Facebook after Google+ not before .. especially things like Skype partnership which is completely half assed and Hangouts is light years ahead.

Facebook is scared of Google+ that's without doubt. Google+ immediately was clear would be taking the best things from Twitter and had superior features compared to Facebook when it launched beta and then went public. Facebook was basically try to respond and quickly match those features to remain relevant.

And I have said from the very beginning, Google+ will outpace Facebook in a very short time. We are talking next 2-3 years and Facebook will be start being the new MySpace. G+ already has most tech people. Most tech people, entrepenuers, and tech celebrities are on Google+ and have left Facebook. The network effect will just intensify as Google opens API and more and more people join. If Google+ gains 300-400 million people in 2012, this is the number that will continue to shatter Facebook's userbase.

Btw, the latest news is that Facebook updates have dropped 93% already.

I can bet you that you will be using Google+ more by end of 2012 than you are using Facebook.

errr. no most things FB had before G+ somethigns it added later, some thigns it imrpved on later. whereas G+ just ripped everythign from FB and a little from Twitter.

and how will G+ outpace FB, when FB is still growing faster and have a higher user retention...

[Boz]

It's funny how people are inert to change and are unwilling to look at things objectively. There are so many factors why Google+ will outpace Facebook and why they are growing at a pace not seen so far.

No, I'm pretty sure I won't. I don't have time anymore for most of this crap

And that's why you will use Google+ in a short time instead of Facebook. Most of your friends and family will be using Google+ and you will by inertia use Google+ more.

Right now, a lot of people can't see that because it's 60+ million users VS 800 million on Facebook, but once Google reaches critical mass of 200+ million users the network effect (described in the quote i put in the original post), majority of people using Android devices will create an even more noticable shift.

Many people don't have time as you do to use 2 big social networks and if Google+ continues to grow as it is, people will shift towards it instead of Facebook due to increasing popularity and offering a much more open and integrated approach to everything in their lives. This is Google's biggest strength and something people just refuse to acknowledge. But give it a bit more time and it will become obvious to even the biggest critics of Google+.

I have been using Facebook since the very beginning, and Google+ is quite a bit better than Facebook and a much cleaner and useful social experience. Facebook is trying to match Google+ and is just making a bigger and bigger mess (see user negative reactions to Timeline for example).

and how will G+ outpace FB, when FB is still growing faster and have a higher user retention...

Same way Myspace was MASSIVE compared to Facebook and Facebook took over. There is really no difference.