Transistors inside new Intel CPUs unveiled last week are hundreds of times thinner than a human hair, thanks to a 22-nanometer manufacturing process that the company says “fuels Moore’s Law for years to come.”
Not everyone agrees.
Theoretical physicist Michio Kaku believes instead that an end to Moore’s famous theory is -- at last -- in sight.
"In about 10 years or so, we will see the collapse of Moore’s Law," said Kaku, professor of theoretical physics at City University of New York (CUNY), in a videotaped interview on BigThink.com.
“In fact, already we see a slowing down of Moore’s Law. Computing power simply cannot maintain this rapid, exponential rise using standard silicon technology.”
Is it possible? Could the end really be in sight for Moore’s Law?
In 1965, an article in Electronics magazine by Gordon Moore, the future founder of chip juggernaut Intel, predicted that computer processing power would double roughly every 18 months. Or maybe he said 12 months. Or was it 24 months? Actually, nowhere in the article did Moore actually spell out that famous declaration, nor does the word "law" even appear in the article at all.
'In about 10 years or so, we will see the collapse of Moore’s Law.'
- Michio Kaku, professor of theoretical physics
Yet the idea has proved remarkably resilient over time, entering the public zeitgeist and lodging hold like a tick on dog -- or maybe a stubborn computer virus you just can't eradicate.