Likelyhood of the next xbox inculding a blu-ray drive?

[ndoggfromhell]

I've always wondered about that myself, but I suspect that the costs must be too high. A Blu-ray is less than a few dollars, while a 16 GB flash drive still lingers around $10 at consumer facing prices. Stacking that up to a capacity necessary for hi-res textures of the next generation games, and I think we would watch the publisher lose all of its profits as webdev511 suggested. The nice perks of it is that read speed would almost certainly be improved, and publishers could buy the smallest size necessary to fit the game, but I think that cost must be too high to make it all feasible.

That's a rewritable flash drive. I'm talking about writeonce memory or ROM which is significantly cheaper.

[Growled Member]

I know hd-dvd lost the nerd wars but MS should have still put a hd-dvd drive in the newer xboxs and just used that for games. Sony did it with UMD and i dont think anyone ever used them aside from psp.

Sounds like a good idea to me.

[+Eternal Tempest MVC]

If Ms was smart, they swallow there pride, Blu-Ray movies is a standard now with many different manufactures making and add it to the Xbox.

This would take a way a bullet point Sony can use to try and sell the PS3 over Xbox and go with there new multi-media angle Microsoft is pushing with the Xbox in your home.

It would also be a benefit for game developers and gamers with the additional storage capacity.

[Emn1ty]

If Ms was smart, they swallow there pride, Blu-Ray movies is a standard now with many different manufactures making and add it to the Xbox.

This would take a way a bullet point Sony can use to try and sell the PS3 over Xbox and go with there new multi-media angle Microsoft is pushing with the Xbox in your home.

It would also be a benefit for game developers and gamers with the additional storage capacity.

Or they could be really smart and just switch to flash drives as physical distribution. Games never get scratched, they are more portable and the only media drive you'd have to include is a USB port. I still don't understand why this hasn't happened yet.

[George P Global Moderator]

Or they could be really smart and just switch to flash drives as physical distribution. Games never get scratched, they are more portable and the only media drive you'd have to include is a USB port. I still don't understand why this hasn't happened yet.

At one point I thought that it would be interesting if the system came with a flash drive, 32GB or so, that you could then take to someplace like best buy or gamestop and the whole process of buying your game would be then copying over the game to your drive (instead of selling you a disc copy. The copy on the flash drive would have some type of unique hash/key for piracy reasons ofc, but then you'd take it back home, pop it into the system and play the game off of it or move it over to the systems internal storage where games and other contant you download go etc. Then you could reuse the same flash drive/stick w/e over. You'd basically have no discs or stack of flash carts or w/e, it'd be "digital" distro at retail for those who don't have the internet speed to download full games.

And using the same flash drive over you'd keep costs down for developers who don't need to press discs at all etc.

[Jeston Veteran]

At one point I thought that it would be interesting if the system came with a flash drive, 32GB or so, that you could then take to someplace like best buy or gamestop and the whole process of buying your game would be then copying over the game to your drive (instead of selling you a disc copy. The copy on the flash drive would have some type of unique hash/key for piracy reasons ofc, but then you'd take it back home, pop it into the system and play the game off of it or move it over to the systems internal storage where games and other contant you download go etc. Then you could reuse the same flash drive/stick w/e over. You'd basically have no discs or stack of flash carts or w/e, it'd be "digital" distro at retail for those who don't have the internet speed to download full games.

And using the same flash drive over you'd keep costs down for developers who don't need to press discs at all etc.

How would you propose people with multiple systems play their purchased game on more than one console, assuming your "hash/key" is a one time use thing and/or is tied to the original console (otherwise I fail to see how that would combat piracy)?

I personally don't care what format it uses as long as it's got more storage space than a DVD. If they switch to Blu-Ray, I'm guessing backwards compatibility would be more problematic or more costly than if they were to use some sort of HD DVD derivative. Sure BC isn't super important as it's got to end somewhere in order to promote evolution and I don't plan on trashing my 360 when this comes out, but it's always a nice feature to have.

[George P Global Moderator]

How would you propose people with multiple systems play their purchased game on more than one console, assuming your "hash/key" is a one time use thing and/or is tied to the original console (otherwise I fail to see how that would combat piracy)?

I personally don't care what format it uses as long as it's got more storage space than a DVD. If they switch to Blu-Ray, I'm guessing backwards compatibility would be more problematic or more costly than if they were to use some sort of HD DVD derivative. Sure BC isn't super important as it's got to end somewhere in order to promote evolution and I don't plan on trashing my 360 when this comes out, but it's always a nice feature to have.

The hash/key or w/e would be a unique identifier so the system knows you actually paid for the game on the drive and it's not just copied over from some pirated source. It wouldn't so much as limit use to one system really.

[HawkMan]

How would you propose people with multiple systems play their purchased game on more than one console, assuming your "hash/key" is a one time use thing and/or is tied to the original console (otherwise I fail to see how that would combat piracy)?

I personally don't care what format it uses as long as it's got more storage space than a DVD. If they switch to Blu-Ray, I'm guessing backwards compatibility would be more problematic or more costly than if they were to use some sort of HD DVD derivative. Sure BC isn't super important as it's got to end somewhere in order to promote evolution and I don't plan on trashing my 360 when this comes out, but it's always a nice feature to have.

With both next gen consoles 90% likely to go X86/AMD this round, backwards compatibility is out the windows anyway. Unless they do what they did last, let you download new executables for the game.

[Scorpus Veteran]

If they switch to Blu-Ray, I'm guessing backwards compatibility would be more problematic or more costly than if they were to use some sort of HD DVD derivative.

Not really. Both Blu-ray drives and HD-DVD drives need three lasers (or two lenses, I forget) to operate (one for CDs, one for DVDs and one for Blu-ray/HD-DVD)

[compl3x]

Xbox live is where MS makes their money. I don't see flash memory costs being an issue. $70 at the store, $60 to download and the cost is covered (or $60 and $50).

Cost is always an issue.

Oh..that would be nice. I would love it if the new XBox goes back to cartridge based ROMs. Don't think it would happen though because they will probably want backwards compatibility and they probably don't mind it at all if you scratch the disc up and need to buy a new one.

I fondly remember the old cartridges, but I don't want to go back to them, frankly.

The thing is, 4GB of flash is sooooooo cheap now, throw in USB 3.0 and why use optical?

I'm thinking the next gen game sizes would be around 30-50GB mark. Games now are larger than 4GB.

[+Mud W1ggle Subscriber²]

I can't see a new Xbox without a BD drive. Its the defacto HD standard now, and since MS are pushing the Xbox as a media/entertainment hub, it makes NO sense not to put one in.

Downloadable content is fine, but for those of us who dont live in a country with ultra fast internet and no data caps, its just not feasible. Maybe Next Gen after the next gen for pure digital delivery sure, not this gen though.

I would just love to see the new Xbox release a unit the same size as your standard-width audio gear so it fits in nicely with the rest of our gear, DVD, CD Amp etc..

[AbandonedTrolley]

I'm pretty certain that it will come with blu-ray. It is the current physical format for movies and no matter what anyone says streaming isn't the answer in all regions. Just because the US has 1080 streaming, I've yet to see something like that her in the UK they will not just assume that people want to burn through their data caps for games and movies. So unless they aren't going to push it as a media device then they need to include the latest media drive.

[HawkMan]

I'm pretty certain that it will come with blu-ray. It is the current physical format for movies and no matter what anyone says streaming isn't the answer in all regions. Just because the US has 1080 streaming, I've yet to see something like that her in the UK they will not just assume that people want to burn through their data caps for games and movies. So unless they aren't going to push it as a media device then they need to include the latest media drive.

zune streams 1080 anywhere.

[Mike Frett]

For all the fanbois of the unsecured 'Cloud' crap: It's not gonna happen OK, Look at the news with SOPA type bills and unlimited data plans being cancelled; ISPs don't care to upgrade their infrastructure. Now it's possible there could one day be a combo of Optical Drive/Download, but full cloud? Not in most of our lifetimes, sorry.

[threetonesun]

For all the fanbois of the unsecured 'Cloud' crap: It's not gonna happen OK, Look at the news with SOPA type bills and unlimited data plans being cancelled; ISPs don't care to upgrade their infrastructure. Now it's possible there could one day be a combo of Optical Drive/Download, but full cloud? Not in most of our lifetimes, sorry.

Most of the PC gaming market is already download only. I haven't purchased a disc for a PC game in years. A huge chunk of US entertainment (see Netflix, Hulu, etc) is in the cloud. There's a good chance Microsoft could cut deals with the major internet / cable providers so that, say, Xbox game downloads don't count against a cap.

Also, game assets for consoles in the next gen will be shooting for 1080p performance, which is still lower than PC games, so while there will be some 40GB games, most won't even be close.

Granted, a lot of the US still has **** for internet, so you're right, it probably won't happen with the next Xbox, but you can't say it will never happen.

[Raa]

I think the chances are low - but I also think this is a really silly move. Microsoft should 'keep a stiff upper lip', and put a BR drive in to get some more sales going.

[TheLegendOfMart]

Most of the PC gaming market is already download only.

No its not?

Most games are still sold retail but have the option of downloading them digitally. Just like the 360/PS3 has now, games sold in shops but also on the Market for the people who can take advantage of it.

As for flash don't make me laugh, there are four problems.

One, NAND is far more expensive than pressing a disc.

Two, NAND has a finite amount of read/write cycles it wont last more than a few years constantly rewriting games onto it.

Three, Security concerns, if you allow a user to read and write games to the drive its a MASSIVE weak point for security, eventually people could spoof a drive and boom you made it super simple to copy games.

Four, the logistics of having a machine in the stores that a) has the security/encryption, b) has access to the internet to get all the latest releases, c) whos going to pay for the machine, microsoft or the stores?

Flash and digital download only is a pipe dream, by the time it does happen we wont be playing on 'consoles', we will be streaming games over the internet to any device.

[threetonesun]

Flash and digital download only is a pipe dream, by the time it does happen we wont be playing on 'consoles', we will be streaming games over the internet to any device.

I don't go into the local gamestores often, but last time I was there, they had no real PC section. They had a handful of copies of new games, and a bunch of older games like Roller Coaster Tycoon. I personally don't know anyone plays PC games who still buys discs.

As for the flash memory part, yes, maybe they can be hacked. On the other hand, my guess is that the next generation will require Blizzard / EA type account management in order to play any game, or an Xbox / PS account to play downloaded games.

The cost of flash memory can also be covered by charging more for store copies, as is the case with every other digital / physical product we purchase today.

MS wants to be the "entertainment" console. They also want everything to come through them, so they'd much rather see people download through Zune then stick a disc in the console.

[Yusuf M. Veteran]

What good is an HD entertainment device if it can't play HD movies on physical media? I think it's extremely likely that the next-gen Xbox will support the Blu-ray Disc format. From a business perspective, it's better to appeal to a wider audience. If Microsoft made it download-only, then people with slow Internet connections will have problems downloading what they want. And then there's the issue of storage space. It makes more sense for people to have a stack of 25-50 GB Blu-ray Discs than a low number of movies on their hard drive at once. There's also the issue of monthly bandwidth limits that a lot of Internet service providers impose.

By supporting the Blu-ray Disc format, Microsoft can allow more people to watch HD movies on their Xbox (without having to wait for a download to finish). From what I've read, it seems like Microsoft would rather people use their console over other entertainment devices (e.g. Blu-ray/DVD players or other consoles).

[HawkMan]

No its not?

Most games are still sold retail but have the option of downloading them digitally. Just like the 360/PS3 has now, games sold in shops but also on the Market for the people who can take advantage of it.

As for flash don't make me laugh, there are four problems.

One, NAND is far more expensive than pressing a disc.

Two, NAND has a finite amount of read/write cycles it wont last more than a few years constantly rewriting games onto it.

Three, Security concerns, if you allow a user to read and write games to the drive its a MASSIVE weak point for security, eventually people could spoof a drive and boom you made it super simple to copy games.

Four, the logistics of having a machine in the stores that a) has the security/encryption, b) has access to the internet to get all the latest releases, c) whos going to pay for the machine, microsoft or the stores?

Flash and digital download only is a pipe dream, by the time it does happen we wont be playing on 'consoles', we will be streaming games over the internet to any device.

Few problems with your facts

1: most here are talking ROM which is probably cheaper and easier to make than pressing discs today.

2: they have finite WRITING cycles, but infinite reading, even after a SSD has written as many times as it can, the data can still be read forever.

3: being read only memory that's cheap, you also don't have any security concerns, same as a disk, only much much faster.

4: read only cartridges, same as disks, only smaller (think the nano sized USB sticks)

the second part would be irrelevant though as we'd probably be talking a ROM cartridge with a small amount of flash memory for storing game specific patches and possibly saves.

Don't think flash, think ROM

[TheLegendOfMart]

I don't go into the local gamestores often, but last time I was there, they had no real PC section. They had a handful of copies of new games, and a bunch of older games like Roller Coaster Tycoon. I personally don't know anyone plays PC games who still buys discs.

As for the flash memory part, yes, maybe they can be hacked. On the other hand, my guess is that the next generation will require Blizzard / EA type account management in order to play any game, or an Xbox / PS account to play downloaded games.

The cost of flash memory can also be covered by charging more for store copies, as is the case with every other digital / physical product we purchase today.

MS wants to be the "entertainment" console. They also want everything to come through them, so they'd much rather see people download through Zune then stick a disc in the console.

Stores don't have big PC sections because consoles have the bigger marketshare and that's where they make all their profit. My local store has a top 10 shelf of all the latest PC games and then at least 2 full standing shelves dedicated to older PC titles and its hardly a large store.

An account system won't stop hackers, I'm not up on console hacking but I'm pretty sure you can't play copied games online without risk of them banning your console, not being able to play online is inconsequential to pirates as its par for the course this generation anyway. So having an online account system wouldnt bother them as they would play their console offline and Microsoft wouldnt make the console online only,

Games already cost a fortune when discs cost pennies to produce, if you start introducing flash memory the cost goes up in dollars not cents.

Microsoft arent stupid, of course they want people to download movies, games and music through their store but they would never restrict their console to do so it would be commercial suicide.

Few problems with your facts

1: most here are talking ROM which is probably cheaper and easier to make than pressing discs today.

2: they have finite WRITING cycles, but infinite reading, even after a SSD has written as many times as it can, the data can still be read forever.

3: being read only memory that's cheap, you also don't have any security concerns, same as a disk, only much much faster.

4: read only cartridges, same as disks, only smaller (think the nano sized USB sticks)

the second part would be irrelevant though as we'd probably be talking a ROM cartridge with a small amount of flash memory for storing game specific patches and possibly saves.

Don't think flash, think ROM

Yes but the guy was saying you could take your flash drive into the store and copy the games onto the drive, he wasnt talking about ROMs.

[threetonesun]

So having an online account system wouldnt bother them as they would play their console offline and Microsoft wouldnt make the console online only,

An account system won't stop hackers, I'm not up on console hacking but I'm pretty sure you can't play copied games online without risk of them banning your console, not being able to play online is inconsequential to pirates as its par for the course this generation anyway.

Microsoft arent stupid, of course they want people to download movies, games and music through their store but they would never restrict their console to do so it would be commercial suicide.

There's probably all of 2 or 3 people who have pirated Halo or COD games and played them offline. Piracy is not an issue when you can tie everything to an account that can be banned. This is doubly true if you tie everything on the console (games / entertainment / communication) to an account that can be banned. It's not worth the risk to pirate any more.

And you're forgetting that Microsoft already has a console that doesn't have Blu-ray, and it's selling just fine. Blu-ray is established at this point, anyone interested in it has a player, the rest of us don't care / stream / don't need one.

[+John. Subscriber¹]

Very likely. Physical media will be around for a long time, despite most of us not wanting it.

[TheLegendOfMart]

There's probably all of 2 or 3 people who have pirated Halo or COD games and played them offline. Piracy is not an issue when you can tie everything to an account that can be banned. This is doubly true if you tie everything on the console (games / entertainment / communication) to an account that can be banned. It's not worth the risk to pirate any more.

And you're forgetting that Microsoft already has a console that doesn't have Blu-ray, and it's selling just fine. Blu-ray is established at this point, anyone interested in it has a player, the rest of us don't care / stream / don't need one.

Pretty sure the figures are MUCH higher than that. Consoles can be banned this generation, it still doesnt stop piracy.

Im not forgetting anything. Microsoft didn't put Blu-Ray in Xbox because they were betting on HD-DVD and by the time the format war was over it didn't make sense to put Blu-Ray into the xbox as everyone who already had a DVD powered one would have been left out.

Multiplatform games have been held back this generation because of DVD, having to sacrifice on content and quality to fit the game on one or two DVDs, where PS3 exclusives have been 15Gb+ (and it shows quality wise).

Digital download will never be an option when ISPs are capping and charging ridiculous rates, ROM Carts don't make sense cost wise, NAND is too expensive and insecure. DVD held games back this generation it wouldnt make sense to put DVD drive into the next console.

That leaves two options, Blu-ray which would make sense as they are pushing the Xbox as a media player, or a format based on HD-DVD, Microsoft already bought into it and its 'cheaper' to retrofit DVD pressing plants to press HD-DVDs.

[mikiem]

A DVD/BD ROM drive runs ~$50 -- probably cost MS ~$20-$25 for the actual hardware packaged in an external box like their try at/with HD DVD. *IF* they added some sort of a twist, some added feature(s), *maybe* along the lines of a media player, they'd also pick up sales from those without a Xbox -- if all you got was an external DVD/BD ROM it'd be kinda pointless, & MS could just as well let users plug in whatever USB storage they wanted -- they could use that external DVD/BD ROM [or a BD burner] they bought elsewhere if that's what they wanted.

Personally I'd lean against MS sticking a BD drive in the Xbox itself, though it could of course happen. With the arguable exception of win8's Metro, MS is all about market demand, & staking out territory so they're not left out of a market -- MS has learned that lessen I think from all the cash they've spent trying to catch up with Bing, cell phones etc. They may be more concerned about devices like Apple & Google TV than they are about other brands of game consoles. And Blu-Ray movie sales are down -- there's less rather than continuing or increasing demand, even as HDTV sales stay steady.

And that brings up another point to consider -- *most* people are very willing to accept lower video quality. It may matter to you, but chances are it doesn't matter all that much to your neighbors. HDTVs are more often marketed on size nowadays, or on-line features, or 3D, but not so much on brand X having a better picture than brand Y. Cable HD is most often lower quality than the DVD of the same movie, upsampled by your HDTV or your Blu-Ray player. Blu-Ray movies may have started out using most of the available storage space, with a higher bit rate video file, but most current releases have dropped that in half. Blu-Ray movies are a PITA with the often forced previews/ads, heavy DRM requiring firmware/software updates, & slow loading Java to support features most will never use. Stats say most people would rather just get the DVD or use a streaming service like Netflix, Hulu, Amazon etc.

Being perfectly willing to settle for lower quality likely carries over to a large portion [the majority?] of current Xbox owners as well. If every Xbox owner chimed in on this thread it'd crash the servers -- you're more like an elite subset. What MS ultimately decides to do depends in large part on how many of you it thinks there are in the world, so let them know. :)