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Likelyhood of the next xbox inculding a blu-ray drive?

blu-ray format war microsft xbox next gen

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#226 Emn1ty

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 06:16

Games currently don't go over 32GB of space, but that isn't to say they never will. Especially if higher quality video/audio starts to be adopted. 4K maybe? Still the price of pressing discs is much, much cheaper. This seems to be a point you keep factoring out of the discussion. Price matters. Manufactures, especially when competing in the console market, want to keep them down and encourage sales to get people into their ecosystem. Someone has to pick up the costs if manufactures get extravagant with development. And you can get your bottom dollar it will be us, the consumer, who will do so.

In the link you provided, (provided these numbers are accurate) a BD DL (50 GB) was $0.09 per GB while SDHC (32GB) was $0.90 per GB! That is 10 times the cost per GB :| ! That is an insane increase. You do that over millions of units and it is a whole lotta mulah... For very little reward.

Lets see, we'll take 25GB and compare prices including other costs. If it cost $10, as the article suggests, to fit each produced disc/card and both are 25GB of data. It comes out to $12.25 per BR vs $32.50 (about a price difference of 1:3-ish rather than 1:10), again also as the article indicates. This comes with the added benefit of:
1. Ever device is already equipped with a method to read it.
2. The device that reads the media is cheaper (I can buy a multicard reader for $4.99, a Blu-Ray player is >= 10x that cost)
3. The media can be updated over time, meaning an error in your menu/subtitles can be fixed (instead of with a Blu-Ray disc you would have to repurchase the video to correct the issue).
4. Zero noise (in a cinematic/immersive environment this is priceless)
5. Faster loading times (for movies and games, allowing you to experience your purchase sooner)

And more that has all been mentioned in the article. Cost is the only thing holding media such as SD/Flash back. And there are many reasons to deal with that cost.


#227 giantpotato

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 07:11

Lets see, we'll take 25GB and compare prices including other costs. If it cost $10, as the article suggests, to fit each produced disc/card and both are 25GB of data. It comes out to $12.25 per BR ...


Do you really think it costs $12.25 to press a Blu-Ray disc? You can find Blu-Rays selling for $5. Do you really think companies take a loss of $7.25 for every one of those sold?

it cost ~$2.00 for the studios to press a disc 5 years ago when Blu-Ray first came out, I can guarantee you they cost pennies to produce now.


Edit: http://wesleytech.co...s-revealed/111/
Price from 5 years ago.

I received quotes on Blu-ray single layer (25GB) replication at plant #2 between $1.35-$1.45 USD per disc on runs of 25K or more. Blu-ray DL (50GB) was quoted between $2.15 – $2.25 per disc on a 25,000 quantity run.


http://www.forbes.co...ho-will-use-it/
Price from 2 years ago

The actual cost of manufacturing today’s optical discs, even Blu-ray disks is less than $1.00,



#228 Emn1ty

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 07:44

Do you read? I said labeling, boxes, etc. The stuff alongside the disk. I could easily see that stuff totaling beyond just a few cents or a dollar or two. Paper, plastic, ink all cost money. It may not be $10, it could be more or less. But again, I repeat that what I am talking about is not just the disc, but the price of producing the disc as well as packaging the disc (branding/etc included). Unless you expect discs to just be sitting by themselves on the shelf without a box, label or pamphlet to go with it.

#229 The_Decryptor

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 07:46

And those costs don't apply to a game on flash media?

#230 Emn1ty

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 07:49

And those costs don't apply to a game on flash media?

Did I say that? I added $10 to both:
- Blu-Ray 25GB = $10 (Misc print and packaging costs) + $0.09 per GB = $12.25/disc
- SDHC 25GB = $10 (Misc print and packaging costs) + $0.90 per GB = $32.50/card

Did anyone actually read the article?

#231 The_Decryptor

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 08:00

I just read it then, you're quoting the 50GB Blu-Ray costs for the 25GB disks.

#232 Emn1ty

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 08:29

I just read it then, you're quoting the 50GB Blu-Ray costs for the 25GB disks.

Then I'll just link the comparison chart and its description of the pricing differences.

Today, both 16GB and 32GB flash cards are readily available -- in fact these are the cheapest per-GB cards. Above and below this "sweet spot" range, the prices are higher, but these are useful sizes for high-definition video releases.
For comparison here's a table of sizes with typical compressed video times (Format is hh:mm) that can be stored in standard definition MPEG2 (i.e. DVD format with a bit-rate around 1.0 mbps) and 1080P VP8 or H264 format (typical for high-definition content, with a bit-rate around 20 mbps[2]):

Posted Image

The entries in bold are of particular interest for releasing movies and/or video series. Although this chart suggests that we'd need SDHC-32 for most feature-length films, it's also possible to increase the compression slightly if cost is a major factor (to 18mbps (1:58) or 16mbps (2:13)) without having a serious effect on quality. Also, as it happens, none of the immediately forseeable Lib-Ray titles are over 1:46 (the longest would be Sita Sings the Blues at 1:21, Lunatics will probably be in two- or three-episode volumes below 1:30) -- and by the time the format catches on with a more mainstream market demanding longer formats (assuming it does), SDHC-32 may be as cheap as SDHC-16 is today.


Also this, which is of particular interest to those creating games:

Low Fixed Costs

Of course, in addition to patching already distributed media, the master currently in production could be patched to remain up to date. This is because, unlike pressed optical media, flash media are simply copied on a duplicator. Thus, there is no appreciable fixed setup cost to a printing run, and therefore no reason to make overly-long production runs (except for your own time in designing the release, of course).

Low fixed costs are particularly useful for high-risk low-volume markets like free-culture and independent film


This means not only can you make updates during the printing run, but you don't have to guarantee a large market in order to sell. Low fixed costs are particularly useful for high-risk low-volume markets like free-culture and independent film, where it may be desirable to print as few as 100 copies for sale at a time (or even to go with "print-on-demand"/"quantity one" production).



#233 giantpotato

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 08:56

Then I'll just link the comparison chart and its description of the pricing differences.

Also this, which is of particular interest to those creating games:


The chart you posted has nothing to do with pricing differences, it's a list of how much video you can fit on different media.

Frankly, the second quote you posted just shows how highly irrelevant that site is concerning video games. The site is about the costs of distributing some low-volume independent films. Video games are going to be manufactured in batches of hundreds of thousands, if not millions. And you know what, even if they completely screw up a batch of blu-rays, It would still be cheaper to throw them out and press another batch, than to use SD cards. Hell, they can screw up 20 batches in a row and it'll still be cheaper than using SD cards.

#234 HawkMan

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 10:03

Name a game to me, outside of DLC, that uses more than 32GB of space. You won't find one. Even MMO's don't break that size and they are notorious for being extremely large installs. And that's on PC. Take a look at the article I linked, it demonstrates that price differences for movies can be made up for in many ways, this would also include games. One particularly interesting thing is direct patching/updating of the media. You movies could, for example, get updated subtitles and during production these changes can easily be applied to the newer releases.


the Secret World, 36GB

#235 Emn1ty

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 11:41

the Secret World, 36GB

It was not 36GB on release, iirc. Regardless, while it is cheaper to press a disc, its cheaper for the consumer to use an SD/Flash Drive. There is nothing to buy in almost every instance. Most televisions have USB drives now, and I'm sure there are some which even have SD slots. The cost of producing a Blu-Ray vs a 32GB drive may be 3:1 (much of which could be eliminated if production could be increased). Almost every single device (save for phones) is or can easily be equipped with SD readers or USB drives, bringing the initial cost of them down to near $0 for the consumer. Sure, it may be 3 times as expensive to print an SDHC game (which means game/movie prices will pop up about $20, or possibly even less depending on how the prices of the card drop based on increased production) but in return you will get significantly reduced loading/install times, smaller form factor hardware, significantly reduced noise from your console (even in comparison to your hard drives), a game that can once again store its own data within itself (which is extremely convenient, especially for anyone who's taken their game to their friend's console and had to download 5 updates, ofc I'm not necessarily saying save games should be on the card, but it could be an option to store them there as well).

I guess, imo, I'm willing to pay an additional $20 per game (and probably $50-$150 less for my console) to get the above benefits. Discs are fragile (not extremely so, but many games I have from the Original XBox days are starting to give out and have needed to be repurchased) and the players even more so (dust on the laser can ruin a player until you thoroughly clean it, and the player itself can fail easily).

I know long term the games would cost more, but the much more hassle-free experience of media cards would be worth it, at least to me.

#236 BajiRav

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 19:47

They will have to have a BD played in next Xbox for movies and at that point using flash memory just for games doesn't make any sense.

#237 shakey

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 19:52

For all those saying flash drives.... We are not there yet. MS will not take another jump on some new way to do media, especially after the failing of HDDVD.
It makes every sense to go with bluray. Not only for movies, but games too. It's already a good standard, holds plenty, and is basically scratch proof.
It's crazy to think that Bluray isn't going to be included, but then have faith that a even more less than used format for media will be. While flash drive games and media would be neat, it isn't going to happen anytime soon. And I don't see MS trying to push it forward when there is basically 0 presence of it being done by anyone already.
And the arguement of others already have bluray... well, others already had DVD players when the 360 came out, and that didn't stop them. It's called reaching out to the most people. They will pick a format which already has a strong holding in the market. Since DVD is now too old and obsolete, it will be bluray. Unless you think that somehow due to MS making it all be USB, it will force movie companies and such to change how they distribute movies..... which wouldn't happen.

#238 McKay

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 20:05

Games currently don't go over 32GB of space, but that isn't to say they never will. Especially if higher quality video/audio starts to be adopted. 4K maybe? Still the price of pressing discs is much, much cheaper. This seems to be a point you keep factoring out of the discussion. Price matters. Manufactures, especially when competing in the console market, want to keep them down and encourage sales to get people into their ecosystem. Someone has to pick up the costs if manufactures get extravagant with development. And you can get your bottom dollar it will be us, the consumer, who will do so.

In the link you provided, (provided these numbers are accurate) a BD DL (50 GB) was $0.09 per GB while SDHC (32GB) was $0.90 per GB! That is 10 times the cost per GB :| ! That is an insane increase. You do that over millions of units and it is a whole lotta mulah... For very little reward.


I think they'll start increasing in size drastically in the next gen. In the first Xbox games averaged around 2-3GB. Games on 360 are pushing the 8(ish)GB limit quite often, and indeed surpassing it with multiple disks, this is with subHD textures etc. On the next one we'll probably see native 1080 textures which will chew up space quickly.

#239 TheLegendOfMart

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 20:11

PS3 exclusives are huge.
Uncharted 3 - 47Gb
GT5 Spec II - 26Gb
Killzone 3 - 46Gb
MGS4 - 28Gb

All multiplatform games are gimped because of 360s small Dual Layer DVDs, they are no bigger than 8Gb for single disc games.

#240 srbeen

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 20:24

Yep. It'll be there.