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Microsoft being too modest with Surface Sales estimations?


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#16 .Neo

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 17:36

Oh, I fully expect that there is a symbiotic relationship between advertising surface and getting windows 8 market share, no doubt. I just think the focus on Surface so much shows that there may be more to the surface equation than we were led on to believe :)

Surface is basically Microsoft's flagship device and a great way to show off Windows RT/8's capabilities. It could very well be their initial Surface shipment estimates were on the low side to cover themselves in case the device wouldn't sell as well as they might have really hoped. I mean look at what happened to Apple during the iPhone 5 launch. All these self-proclaimed analysts predicted insane shipment volumes. When Apple didn't deliver to those unrealistic standards people acted disappointed and their stock fell. By saying you only expect so ship an X amount of units you basically protect yourself against that. But who knows what Microsoft's real reasoning is. :p


#17 HawkMan

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 17:38

Dell is selling Windows 8 RT tablets. I'm sure more will jump on with it between now and the end of Q1 2013...

It will be interesting to see what affect the Surface will have on these OEMs. It might have a negligible impact or it might not. The numbers will be the only way to know.


So ? it can't cannibalize a market that didn't exist before MS themselves entered it. they're just competing like everyone else in a new market segment. if all the other oem had been selling RT tablets for a year or more, sure, but they haven't.

#18 Growled

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 00:33

They seem to be what is filling up my Quick Spy so I end up reading a fair bit of them and then offering a comment every so often. If my contributions have been worthless and serving only to devalue the discussion I'll reduce my participation in Surface related threads. I'm content with just reading threads and refraining from jumping into them.

I'll be sure to try to post only when there is considerable value to add to Surface threads going forward.


I enjoy your comments and you always add to a thread. Please don't let them get to you.

#19 Subhadip

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 05:12

Firstly, I would like to remind you that no 10 inch tablet apart from iPad has sold even close to those numbers. The iPad is the de-facto standard and it takes a lot of push for regular people to even check out something else. Especially if it's a brand new and unproven ecosystem. They had to make an extraordinary buzz or the thing wouldn't sell, as simple as that. Or should I say, establish.

If Microsoft end up selling 5 million Surface RTs in a quarter I would say it is a huge success.

#20 BajiRav

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 05:42

Dell is selling Windows 8 RT tablets. I'm sure more will jump on with it between now and the end of Q1 2013...

It will be interesting to see what affect the Surface will have on these OEMs. It might have a negligible impact or it might not. The numbers will be the only way to know.

That tablet was not going to sale much with or without Surface.

#21 +LogicalApex

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 16:57

So ? it can't cannibalize a market that didn't exist before MS themselves entered it. they're just competing like everyone else in a new market segment. if all the other oem had been selling RT tablets for a year or more, sure, but they haven't.


Err what? The tablet market existed well before the Surface came out... Even still, you can cannibalize sales in a new market...

If Microsoft takes significant market share from its OEM partners then the Surface will have a cannibalizing effect on the Windows RT market. This is a cannibalizing issue because Microsoft is competing directly against its partners so every Windows RT sale MS earns is one that their OEM partners would have earned without them being in the market. But I shouldn't have to explain this, it is pretty straight forward.

How much of a cannibalizing effect the Surface has on the market is of extreme importance. The success of the Surface would be a big win for MS when it comes to Windows RT, and Windows 8, but if its success dwarfs its OEM partners then it will upset industry conditions greatly for MS. It would potentially lead to its major PC OEM partners pursuing alternative OSs for their tablets and shunning Windows RT. Will that hurt MS? Who knows, but it will be the biggest shift in the PC industry in over 3 decades. It will also be a strong test of MS to convert themselves into a consumer brand making all their hardware in house.

All of this is speculation though, as I said we need to see Q4 2012 and Q1 2013 numbers before we can start to make sense of what is really happening out there.

#22 HawkMan

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 17:09

Err what? The tablet market existed well before the Surface came out... Even still, you can cannibalize sales in a new market...



No it didn't, Tablet PC's however existed. that is of course the problem with naming the Slate form computers tablets, since they're not tablets, they're Slates or Pads. Tablet PC's is compeltely different from these new tablets/slates/pads.

MS created this Market for windows based slates, and they're first to market. by your definition everyone who sells a slate form WinRT computer is a cannibal. MS simply competes in this market the same as it's OEM partners, they're not even the cheapest, and they put the same license cost for windows on top of their hardware as their OEM partners, do, there is no cannibalizing going on. just competition.

#23 +LogicalApex

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 17:24

No it didn't, Tablet PC's however existed. that is of course the problem with naming the Slate form computers tablets, since they're not tablets, they're Slates or Pads. Tablet PC's is compeltely different from these new tablets/slates/pads.

MS created this Market for windows based slates, and they're first to market. by your definition everyone who sells a slate form WinRT computer is a cannibal. MS simply competes in this market the same as it's OEM partners, they're not even the cheapest, and they put the same license cost for windows on top of their hardware as their OEM partners, do, there is no cannibalizing going on. just competition.


MS can't compete with its OEM partners without cannibalization occurring, but I'm not going to keep explaining this simple concept. Competing against MS isn't the same as competing against other OEMs in this space, for obvious reasons.

The tablet market existed before the Surface. Last I remember the Kindle Fire, iPad, Google Nexus 7, and a litany of Android tablets dotted the landscape prior to the arrival of the Surface...

#24 +TruckWEB

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 17:27

The fact that you can't buy Microsoft Surface in store right now must have an impact. They don't have Microsoft Store everywhere and for things like that, I tend to prefer to play with the device before buying. Surely I'm not alone that prefer to try before buying so the fact that you can buy Surface online does little for me.

But every BestBuy, FutureShop have all the iPad or Android tablet you'd like. So, MS will have a hard time....

As of right now, no store close to where I live have a WinRT/WinPro tablet.

#25 +LogicalApex

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 17:30

The fact that you can't buy Microsoft Surface in store right now must have an impact. They don't have Microsoft Store everywhere and for things like that, I tend to prefer to play with the device before buying. Surely I'm not alone that prefer to try before buying so the fact that you can buy Surface online does little for me.

But every BestBuy, FutureShop have all the iPad or Android tablet you'd like. So, MS will have a hard time....

As of right now, no store close to where I live have a WinRT/WinPro tablet.


Yep, for sure that will have an impact. Microsoft chose to limit the availability of the Surface to reduce the cannibalization effect that HawkMan thinks doesn't exist...

#26 tsupersonic

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 17:34

The fact that you can't buy Microsoft Surface in store right now must have an impact. They don't have Microsoft Store everywhere and for things like that, I tend to prefer to play with the device before buying. Surely I'm not alone that prefer to try before buying so the fact that you can buy Surface online does little for me.

But every BestBuy, FutureShop have all the iPad or Android tablet you'd like. So, MS will have a hard time....

As of right now, no store close to where I live have a WinRT/WinPro tablet.

You're not the only one - I prefer to play with devices before I buy them, which is one reason to highly value B&M places. You can't try a monitor/mouse/keyboard online, you can only read reviews/watch videos. But, it's nice B&M places still exist so I can try the product, even if I don't buy it there :p For something like this, yeah, I too would need to play with the Surface before I could buy it. Also, there are no Microsoft stores anywhere near me, the closest place is actually in Canada (and I'm in western NY - sad that my closest location is in another country). Tsk tsk Microsoft, if you want to see your products succeed (aka market share), advertise wisely, and expand your locations.

#27 HawkMan

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 18:21

MS can't compete with its OEM partners without cannibalization occurring, but I'm not going to keep explaining this simple concept. Competing against MS isn't the same as competing against other OEMs in this space, for obvious reasons.

The tablet market existed before the Surface. Last I remember the Kindle Fire, iPad, Google Nexus 7, and a litany of Android tablets dotted the landscape prior to the arrival of the Surface...


The non Windows based tablet market is kind of irrelevant and doesn't factor into cannibalization anyway. And yes they can, again it's called competition, if the surface didn't have to pay for the windows license, then you might have a point.

otherwise, as I said, all the OEM would be cannibals as well, which they are, but it's called competition. Cannibalization is what MS did when they released the Zune and became the second most popular PMP, while Apple didn't lose any sales and all their plays for sure partners lost out. That's not what's happening here. In fact, the surface in many ways is beneficial for the OEMs. as their devices are cheaper, whenever they decide to release some. So they benefit from MS ads and market penetration, and then they see a cheaper device that is the same thing and they go for that. They're basically paving the road for them. Something all the OEMs are capable of seeing except one, which is also not known for it's reputation of high quality hardware.

#28 +LogicalApex

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 18:41

The non Windows based tablet market is kind of irrelevant and doesn't factor into cannibalization anyway. And yes they can, again it's called competition, if the surface didn't have to pay for the windows license, then you might have a point.

otherwise, as I said, all the OEM would be cannibals as well, which they are, but it's called competition. Cannibalization is what MS did when they released the Zune and became the second most popular PMP, while Apple didn't lose any sales and all their plays for sure partners lost out. That's not what's happening here. In fact, the surface in many ways is beneficial for the OEMs. as their devices are cheaper, whenever they decide to release some. So they benefit from MS ads and market penetration, and then they see a cheaper device that is the same thing and they go for that. They're basically paving the road for them. Something all the OEMs are capable of seeing except one, which is also not known for it's reputation of high quality hardware.


There are more types of cannibalization than just internal cannibalization. The type of cannibalization I'm referring to here is called market cannibalization since, obviously, the partners are not internal to Microsoft.

Additionally, to see Microsoft as pure competition is wrong. Competition works when all of the players are on equal footing. In the Windows RT market Dell, and other OEMs, are not on equal footing against Microsoft. At the most basic level, MS is the branding associated with the most visible part of the product, the OS, and they benefit enormously from that.

If your argument made any sense, which it doesn't, then Microsoft would ensure that the Surface was as accessible to consumers as any other OEM is going to try, but they won't do that. They are purposely keeping the Surface out of B&M and away from Amazon and it isn't because they hate the color of money.

#29 HawkMan

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 18:52

So basically you're calling competition cannibalization.

And they are on equal footing, in fact the competition stands stronger since MS is fairly unknown in hardware, and their hardware is more expensive. and the average person isn't going to care that the kickstand on the Surface and the rest of the device is of superior quality when they'll use it handheld anyway.

Not ebing in BM might actually not be MS' choice, also trust me that getting your device into BM stores isn't that easy. not with as many unknowns as there are, and right now at this point in time it's actually more beneficial for them to not be there, especially since they avoid the bad association with the price premium.

#30 George P

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Posted 09 November 2012 - 19:05

The tablet market is young and growing fast, there's no cannibalization going on at this point when you don't have a fixed/mature market to target, to that extent "marketshare" numbers just means who can sell more and keep up with the growth. You could have a low overall marketshare % but sell something like 3 million units. Does that mean your product hasn't done good? It seems to be that if you don't sell the most then you're failing in tablets and phones with the way some people look at things.

Anyways, OT, originally months ago SteveB said they planned to sell 3 million by the end of the year iirc. Flash ahead a few more months and we have reports that MS ordered 3-5million to be made. We'll know when the time comes but if they sell anywhere in the area of 3-5million then it's a success. It's not iPad numbers but it doesn't have to be, it's just one Windows tablet in a bigger group. If the others can sell 1-2million or so as well then we're talking WinRT/Win8 taking a good chunk of the tablet market for 4Q12 and or 1Q13.



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