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Microsoft being too modest with Surface Sales estimations?


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#31 +LogicalApex

LogicalApex

    Software Engineer

  • Tech Issues Solved: 8
  • Joined: 14-August 02
  • Location: Philadelphia, PA
  • OS: Windows 7 Ultimate x64
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Posted 09 November 2012 - 19:17

So basically you're calling competition cannibalization.

And they are on equal footing, in fact the competition stands stronger since MS is fairly unknown in hardware, and their hardware is more expensive. and the average person isn't going to care that the kickstand on the Surface and the rest of the device is of superior quality when they'll use it handheld anyway.

Not ebing in BM might actually not be MS' choice, also trust me that getting your device into BM stores isn't that easy. not with as many unknowns as there are, and right now at this point in time it's actually more beneficial for them to not be there, especially since they avoid the bad association with the price premium.


Competition can be cannibalism, but that isn't what I'm referring to. I am not sure why this tangent is going on for so long really. Microsoft is not an equal footing competitor to Dell. As I have said many, many, times in here any cannibalism won't be known until the quarterlies are released. There many be none (the market itself is growing rapidly and MS is a very small part) or there may be lots (MS Surface sales covering over 50% of Windows RT tablet sales).

It is one of many questions that will be answered about the Surface in time. I'm not making any definitive statements when no hard numbers are publicly available.

The tablet market is young and growing fast, there's no cannibalization going on at this point when you don't have a fixed/mature market to target, to that extent "marketshare" numbers just means who can sell more and keep up with the growth. You could have a low overall marketshare % but sell something like 3 million units. Does that mean your product hasn't done good? It seems to be that if you don't sell the most then you're failing in tablets and phones with the way some people look at things.

Anyways, OT, originally months ago SteveB said they planned to sell 3 million by the end of the year iirc. Flash ahead a few more months and we have reports that MS ordered 3-5million to be made. We'll know when the time comes but if they sell anywhere in the area of 3-5million then it's a success. It's not iPad numbers but it doesn't have to be, it's just one Windows tablet in a bigger group. If the others can sell 1-2million or so as well then we're talking WinRT/Win8 taking a good chunk of the tablet market for 4Q12 and or 1Q13.


It all depends on how the Windows RT market shapes up in terms of the overall tablet market. The Windows RT market can be relatively fixed while the tablet market is growing. You can also get increasing concentration around MS in the Windows RT market even though it is growing.

Again, I'm not saying anything definitive. This is why I've said so many times that we will need to see those quarterlies before we can even begin to get an idea of what is happening out there.

To argue that MS is an equal competitor to Dell as Acer is nonsense and that is all I have been attempting to make clear to HawkMan.