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Where have all the hurricanes gone ?

usa meteorology tropical cyclones noaa above-normal season period of inactivity

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#1 Hum

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 15:35

Since the season began June 1, the Atlantic has produced five named tropical storms but no hurricanes. On average, the first hurricane forms by Aug. 10 and the second by Aug. 28. As of Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center was reporting no activity on the radar, and “tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five days.”

 According to weather records dating back to 1851, there are 48 other years when the first hurricane materialized after Aug. 20, and in 25 of those years, it was on or after Sept. 1. The all-time latest is Oct. 8, 1905. Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30.

“It would be a very, very big mistake to think the season’s over,” says Dennis Feltgen, National Hurricane Center spokesman. “We’ve had some very bad years where we’ve waited until the first hurricane even showed up.”

Despite no formation of a hurricane thus far in 2013, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center said Tuesday that its prediction for a 70 percent chance of an “above-normal” season still stands. Forecasters anticipate 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, six to nine could become hurricanes (winds 74 mph or higher) with three to five of those becoming major storms (Category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of at least 111 mph).

“Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized,” NOAA’s Gerry Bell said in a written statement. “Also, two of the four named storms to-date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season.”

With Sept. 10, the traditional peak of hurricane season, still three weeks away, Feltgen urged the public not to be fooled by the period of inactivity.

“It’ll be strange if there isn’t something floating around by the Labor Day weekend,” he told Yahoo News. “It ain’t over till it’s over and it’s nowhere close to being over.”

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#2 spy beef

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 15:38

Global warming....



#3 FloatingFatMan

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 15:39

I farted and blew them all away.



#4 wv@gt

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 16:03

I was thinking about this the other day. This summer at least here in the south has been very mild and very rainy. We have had record breaking amounts of rain and records for lowest high temps. The massive hurricanes came when we were in really hot temp and during a drought.  I've never seen this much rain during the summer or such cool temps, something is weird about all of this



#5 threetonesun

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 16:09

I was thinking about this the other day. This summer at least here in the south has been very mild and very rainy. We have had record breaking amounts of rain and records for lowest high temps. The massive hurricanes came when we were in really hot temp and during a drought.  I've never seen this much rain during the summer or such cool temps, something is weird about all of this

 

Probably a precursor to a mega-cane. Or sharknado.

 

I've been stuck in a hurricane the last two years, and I live in a mostly hurricane free area, so... I'd be ok with a year or two off.



#6 AJerman

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 16:14

So we're a whole ELEVEN days past the average for the first hurricane, something that's happened roughly a third of the time since we've been keeping track, and we've already had 5 named storms, just not hurricanes.

 

So what do you mean where have all the hurricanes gone? This discussion is a little premature is it not?

 

 

I was thinking about this the other day. This summer at least here in the south has been very mild and very rainy. We have had record breaking amounts of rain and records for lowest high temps. The massive hurricanes came when we were in really hot temp and during a drought.  I've never seen this much rain during the summer or such cool temps, something is weird about all of this

Speak for yourself, Georgia. It's been upper 80s to lower 90s and stupid high humidity all summer in NC. Not really what I'd call cool temps here, but certainly not a hot year. It's been pretty much dead on average temperatures. Very rainy though, yes. I can probably count on one hand the number of times we've gone 2 days without rain this summer.



#7 OP Hum

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 16:17

... something is weird about all of this

 

I know where they have 'gone' ...

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#8 Growled

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 16:19

I dread years like this one. I hope the next big killer is not lurking around the corner, but if I was a betting man I would bet it is.



#9 DocM

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 16:36

The global warmers don't like hearing this, but hurricanes have a decades long cycle. Same as North American droughts. There may be spikes & dips mid-cycle, but a "caused by GW" proof they do not make. Sorry.

#10 wv@gt

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 17:09

So we're a whole ELEVEN days past the average for the first hurricane, something that's happened roughly a third of the time since we've been keeping track, and we've already had 5 named storms, just not hurricanes.

 

So what do you mean where have all the hurricanes gone? This discussion is a little premature is it not?

 

 

 

Speak for yourself, Georgia. It's been upper 80s to lower 90s and stupid high humidity all summer in NC. Not really what I'd call cool temps here, but certainly not a hot year. It's been pretty much dead on average temperatures. Very rainy though, yes. I can probably count on one hand the number of times we've gone 2 days without rain this summer.

 

Well then maybe its just Georgia and maybe Alabama. Last week we had a few days were the highs were in the low 60's. Considering last summer we had a month of 95-100 degree temps and almost no rain, this is quite the change. Rain wise I think this whole summer we have had just 1 or 2 days a week where its not raining. 



#11 vetneufuse

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 17:17

I know where they have 'gone' ...

what in the world does a condensation trail have to do with this?



#12 AJerman

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 17:18

Well then maybe its just Georgia and maybe Alabama. Last week we had a few days were the highs were in the low 60's. Considering last summer we had a month of 95-100 degree temps and almost no rain, this is quite the change. Rain wise I think this whole summer we have had just 1 or 2 days a week where its not raining. 

Yeah, last week was so nice. Too bad the humidity was still sticking around. I don't mind higher temperatures, it's the humidity I can't stand.



#13 Roger H.

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 17:19

I was thinking about this the other day. Loss of property and life is always terrible but I get a little pumped up about crazy weather (even if it's hitting my location). Maybe i'm one of those weather junkies but growing up as a kid we had several hurricanes in the Caribbean so it was more of a crazy fun day(s) rather than being scared. We were supposed to have some thunderstorms last month that might knock out power and hail and all that and nope, nothing..... son I am disappoint :(

 

So while i'm happy there aren't any storms to knock out power and kill people and all that, I kinda do miss the power they show.



#14 Growled

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 17:45

what in the world does a condensation trail have to do with this?

 

http://en.wikipedia....nspiracy_theory



#15 greenwizard88

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 17:53

I heard the CIA fought them all off.





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