Analyst Says Windows 8 should be free to existing Windows users

[Hum]

An analyst from IHS says Microsoft should emulate what Apple is doing and make Windows 8 free for existing Windows users.

 

Of course -- how else will they get them to use it. :p

[trooper11]

It may happen with Windows 8.2 or 9 or whatever they call the future version...

 

The problem with Windows 8 isn't so much what they added in and of itself. The major problem is that they didn't add enough for the core market that uses the product.

When you have users that will say that they would not even use Win 8 if it was free, then its more than just that they didn't add enough for the core market.

I'm part of that core market, if I was given Win 8 for free, I could use it happily for the little things they did do for the core market. I could even use free third party apps to change how the new bits affected my usage if I wanted.

Look, at this point, it doesn't matter. Win 8 will be off limits to some users regardless of the future. If MS is going to go down because of it, well they just have themselves to blame for not courting those users enough.

Maybe Win 9 doesn't even happen or maybe it becomes Win 7 V2 and then people come back. Who knows.

[MorganX]

True, but the savings to push Software Assurance onto the Enterprise is the cost of licensing both of these products. Right now they are both under severe price pressure for Microsoft (Windows far more so than Office).

 

Microsoft needs to keep the sticker price for Windows high to make Software Assurance seem like a great deal to the Enterprise. Especially since these agreements generally don't allow the organization to keep using the products when the agreement expires. A free Windows may push many enterprises back to licensing Office directly.

 

You're right on the complex pricing structure.

 

But on the perpetual license, you do own perpetual licenses for Windows if you use Pro. However, most people don't know, if you use enterprise, that is NOT a perpetual license and you must stop using it when the agreement expires. Now, guess which version you are licensed to use in a VDI environment, lol. Enterprise. So if you go VDI, you WILL be renewing ... perpetually.

[+LogicalApex MVC]

When you have users that will say that they would not even use Win 8 if it was free, then its more than just that they didn't add enough for the core market.

I'm part of that core market, if I was given Win 8 for free, I could use it happily for the little things they did do for the core market. I could even use free third party apps to change how the new bits affected my usage if I wanted.

Look, at this point, it doesn't matter. Win 8 will be off limits to some users regardless of the future. If MS is going to go down because of it, well they just have themselves to blame for not courting those users enough.

Maybe Win 9 doesn't even happen or maybe it becomes Win 7 V2 and then people come back. Who knows.

People said the same things about Windows XP. They will use if it brings enough to the table for them. It is all about value to the user. Obviously, I have no idea what that value is to anyone but myself. So I can't go speculating about what they should or should have added.

[JJ_]

I really am not trying to start something with the following question.....

 

For all those who just posted "I wouldn't use Windows 8 even if it was free......" , can you please explain (like a reasonable adult) why you don't like W8? Or What you found wrong with it? I honestly want to know. I keep hearing "The Start Menu, The Start Menu".... but that cant be it because 99% of the people who visit Neowin have some level of geekness in them and which means they should be able to pick and install one of dozens of cheap or free start menu add on's that will give you the "correct" start menu (that looks like Win 7 or earlier). I also heard the "well I don't want to use snap or the app store or the start screen"......but that cant be it, because if you add a start menu that you can add in less than 60 seconds for free, you can boot to the desktop and never have to use snap or the app store or any of the new touchscreen functions.  For most on the cutting edge types, like I know most of you are, cant be the price of Windows 8 because how long was it $40 (I know its back to full price now), and if you have Windows 8, Windows 8.1 is FREE.

 

So honestly I do want to know what is it about Windows 8. 

 

(Disclosure: I have and run Windows 8 on my computers and enjoy the faster boot times, less resources required to run Windows, have a Start Menu which I installed from Ninite.com installed, boot to the desktop, and use the app store rarely even though I have download a few free games and xbox music app. I also use an Android phone so no I'm not stuck into the Windows Eco-system)

 

 

I know more than a handful of people who have downgraded new laptops running Windows 8/8.1 back to 7 and I've helped most of them with the process. The main complaints are the usual, lack of start button, laptop randomly going into metro when navigating the touchpad and metro itself.

 

I installed W8 RP on my laptop when it initially came out and it didn't really make much of an impression on me. I installed 8.1 on my desktop back in October in a VM and the first thing I had to do was install Start Menu 8 to get rid of the hideous Metro screen on boot and bring back some form of normality.

 

The things I dislike about 8.1 are

 

-metro

-the flat UI sucks

-metro

-lack of;

             aero

             native gadget support

             native themes (classic)

-metro

 

I guess these are not really that detrimental, just personal dislikes. If there was no alternative (W7) then I would probably be using 8.1. Desktop mode in 8.1 is still pretty much Windows 7, just 'jazzed down'. I personally think Microsoft blew it with 8 & 8.1 aka SP1. Instead of forcing metro/lack of start menu/flat UI on the masses, they could have had the best of both worlds and let people easily interchange between metro/desktop and a pure desktop mode (minus metro) and with the usual bells and whistles (start menu/aero/gadgets).

[Athernar]

I'll say it one more time:

MS has no revenue to take the place of windows desktop license fees.

If and when that changes, they could certainly get away with giving away those licenses. Giving them away right now and for the future would not be so smart for them.

 

You can say it as many times as you want, it doesn't make it true.

 

The Windows 8 store is a source of revenue for them, and increasing 8's share will increase that revenue. Simple as that.

[MorganX]

I'll say it one more time:

MS has no revenue to take the place of windows desktop license fees.

If and when that changes, they could certainly get away with giving away those licenses. Giving them away right now and for the future would not be so smart for them.

 

I don't see it changing in the foreseeable future. Aside from a new OS, what major apps are released, period, not just for WinRT or Win32? Office has a market lock, Adobe has that market for the most part, the only AAA titles released that sell millions are ... games. That's why SteamOS is relevant and why I think MS is rethinking things and putting back functionality their telemetry told them they could get away with removing, lol.

 

Modern UI provides opportunity for some really cool apps, but it's just not happening. 2 years in.

[trooper11]

Obviously, I have no idea what that value is to anyone but myself. So I can't go speculating about what they should or should have added.

And there is the ultimate problem. Trying to find out the features that bring value to the largest number of people.

[trooper11]

I know more than a handful of people who have downgraded new laptops running Windows 8/8.1 back to 7 and I've helped most of them with the process. The main complaints are the usual, lack of start button, laptop randomly going into metro when navigating the touchpad and metro itself.

 

I installed W8 RP on my laptop when it initially came out and it didn't really make much of an impression on me. I installed 8.1 on my desktop back in October in a VM and the first thing I had to do was install Start Menu 8 to get rid of the hideous Metro screen on boot and bring back some form of normality.

 

The things I dislike about 8.1 are

 

-metro

-the flat UI sucks

-metro

-lack of;

             aero

             native gadget support

             native themes (classic)

-metro

 

I guess these are not really that detrimental, just personal dislikes. If there was no alternative (W7) then I would probably be using 8.1. Desktop mode in 8.1 is still pretty much Windows 7, just 'jazzed down'. I personally think Microsoft blew it with 8 & 8.1 aka SP1. Instead of forcing metro/lack of start menu/flat UI on the masses, they could have had the best of both worlds and let people easily interchange between metro/desktop and a pure desktop mode (minus metro) and with the usual bells and whistles (start menu/aero/gadgets).

Are you talking about booting straight to the desktop? Win 8.1 added that option, so you wouldn't need any third party tool in order for the system to boot straight to the desktop and skip the start screen.

 

 

You can say it as many times as you want, it doesn't make it true.

 

The Windows 8 store is a source of revenue for them, and increasing 8's share will increase that revenue. Simple as that.

Alright, that's fine. MorganX gets my point.

[+LogicalApex MVC]

I don't see it changing in the foreseeable future. Aside from a new OS, what major apps are released, period, not just for WinRT or Win32? Office has a market lock, Adobe has that market for the most part, the only AAA titles released that sell millions are ... games. That's why SteamOS is relevant and why I think MS is rethinking things and putting back functionality their telemetry told them they could get away with removing, lol.

 

Modern UI provides opportunity for some really cool apps, but it's just not happening. 2 years in.

 

Precisely, I compared the lessons learned by Coke with "New Coke" to what Microsoft did here with Windows 8 using telemetry data to tell them what people wanted. It was a powerful lesson we learned in Business School that seems to have been lost on Microsoft. Blindly using data without looking at the broad picture can often be a recipe for major disaster. The only smart move Microsoft made, that Coke didn't, was they didn't pull Windows 7 off the market.

[MorganX]

Are you talking about booting straight to the desktop? Win 8.1 added that option, so you wouldn't need any third party tool in order for the system to boot straight to the desktop and skip the start screen.

 

 

Alright, that's fine. MorganX gets my point.

 

A rarity indeed, we're in total agreement. I think not everyone realizes just how much money (profit) Microsoft makes from Windows licensing. It simply cannot be replaced.

[MorganX]

Precisely, I compared the lessons learned by Coke with "New Coke" to what Microsoft did here with Windows 8 using telemetry data to tell them what people wanted. It was a powerful lesson we learned in Business School that seems to have been lost on Microsoft. Blindly using data without looking at the broad picture can often be a recipe for major disaster. The only smart move Microsoft made, that Coke didn't, was they didn't pull Windows 7 off the market.

 

Great analogy. I've been thinking right now Microsoft reminds me of Apple after Jobs got ousted. There are no cool people in management. Only bean counters and share holder shills. No one is connected to what users want, how they actually use it or want to use it, and why they liked your products in the first place.

 

It can be fixed for the most part, but I don't think MS will ever dominate the consumer market the way it has the enterprise, outside of Xbox of course, and the PC may give Xbox and PS4 a run for their money.

[Dot Matrix]

I don't think MS will ever dominate the consumer market the way it has the enterprise, outside of Xbox of course, and the PC may give Xbox and PS4 a run for their money.

Does it need to? Look at Apple. They're dominating, and now they're afraid to change a damn thing. Because of that, Android is running around all over them, and Mac sales are less than stellar.

[trooper11]

It can be fixed for the most part, but I don't think MS will ever dominate the consumer market the way it has the enterprise, outside of Xbox of course, and the PC may give Xbox and PS4 a run for their money.

Yeah, I agree, its too late for any one company to truly dominate the consumer market. The best MS can aim for is to have a large piece of it.

The interesting part about the xbox side of things is that the pc does not need to be a threat to MS. If MS does the right things, the pc can be just another part of their 'one' platform. I still think MS intends to merge the two at some point. Making 'xbox' a service more than a dedicated console.

[MorganX]

Does it need to? Look at Apple. They're dominating, and now they're afraid to change a damn thing. Because of that, Android is running around all over them, and Mac sales are less than stellar.

 

Since Microsoft if basically based on volume and it's ecosystem development and developers, yes, they need to dominate in so much as without a large installed base, they're irrelevant.

 

Apple afraid to change, those are the folks you need to ask if they "need" to. Currently, like all things there is room for improvement, but radical change, if they're dominating (Which they are not, Android is dominating) and can sustain their margins, why change for changes sake? You think while dominating, Apple should make radial change, that many of their user base are opposed to? Remove features and functionality, and call it progress?

 

Now, if Microsoft were to break itself apart, each company may not need to dominate, but Microsoft as it is today would cease to exist.

 

Regarding Mac sales, mac sale have always been largely irrelevant and relatively low volume, though profitable. That's Apple's business. And now, Apple is primarily an iPhone/iPad driven company. Remember, Tim Cook says we're in a post-PC era, and Apple has been since  the first unveiling if the iPod, lol. Unfortunately, someone at Microsoft thought he was talking about them.

 

About the only thing directly comparable between these two companies, is they both have customers they must keep happy, and keep buying.

[MorganX]

Yeah, I agree, its too late for any one company to truly dominate the consumer market. The best MS can aim for is to have a large piece of it.

The interesting part about the xbox side of things is that the pc does not need to be a threat to MS. If MS does the right things, the pc can be just another part of their 'one' platform. I still think MS intends to merge the two at some point. Making 'xbox' a service more than a dedicated console.

 

I agree and that would be fantastic. But they're not doing so good with GfWL and now XfW. For some reason the gaming community is absolutely in love with Steam and for the life of me I can't figure out why. I personally loved the last version of GfWL and think XfW is a great idea. Unfortunately no one is using it... :/ None of the titles I'm playing or looking forward to are using it, and that's all that matters. Like everyone else, you go where the games you want to play go. At the end of the day it's all about the apps.

[trooper11]

I agree and that would be fantastic. But they're not doing so good with GfWL and now XfW. For some reason the gaming community is absolutely in love with Steam and for the life of me I can't figure out why. I personally loved the last version of GfWL and think XfW is a great idea. Unfortunately no one is using it... :/ None of the titles I'm playing or looking forward to are using it, and that's all that matters. Like everyone else, you go where the games you want to play go. At the end of the day it's all about the apps.

Well I think its a bit early to write off XfW considering that MS is only now starting to really push it. GFWL is still being phased out after all. They needed a clean slate and that is XfW, but what its happening right now is not the final step.

For XfW to really matter on the pc, it will need to grow as a platform to sell and play games from, much like Origin and Steam. They need to leverage their advantage from the console. They need to bring all of the XBL features over that make sense and they need to make games purchased on either platform playable on either. True cross buy. Buy an X1 game, get the pc version for free and the other way around. Maybe that could start out as just a discount rather than completely free. Then beyond just buying it for both platforms, allow game saves to migrate via the cloud to either platform and allow pc gamers to play against X1 gamers where it makes sense.

Take the upcoming Halo game for the X1. It came out on Win 8 first, and if you bought it there, you get the X1 version at a large discount. This should be for all first party games and MS should work hard to persuade third party developers to follow.

I really think MS has been making baby steps in that direction and the X1 itself is more evidence of that.

[threetonesun]

A rarity indeed, we're in total agreement. I think not everyone realizes just how much money (profit) Microsoft makes from Windows licensing. It simply cannot be replaced.

 

Windows licensing on new computers and for businesses. I do wonder how much they actually make off of upgrades. 

 

If anything, the current pricing scheme is designed to make people consider buying a new computer rather than upgrading an old one. My guess is OEMs get more value out of it than Microsoft.

[MorganX]

Well I think its a bit early to write off XfW considering that MS is only now starting to really push it. GFWL is still being phased out after all. They needed a clean slate and that is XfW, but what its happening right now is not the final step.

For XfW to really matter on the pc, it will need to grow as a platform to sell and play games from, much like Origin and Steam. They need to leverage their advantage from the console. They need to bring all of the XBL features over that make sense and they need to make games purchased on either platform playable on either. True cross buy. Buy an X1 game, get the pc version for free and the other way around. Maybe that could start out as just a discount rather than completely free. Then beyond just buying it for both platforms, allow game saves to migrate via the cloud to either platform and allow pc gamers to play against X1 gamers where it makes sense.

Take the upcoming Halo game for the X1. It came out on Win 8 first, and if you bought it there, you get the X1 version at a large discount. This should be for all first party games and MS should work hard to persuade third party developers to follow.

I really think MS has been making baby steps in that direction and the X1 itself is more evidence of that.

 

That all sounds good. Buy one, get the other at a significant discount seems reasonable, get the other free, probably not.

 

MS should double-time it though. Unlike years past, the markets aren't standing still and neither are consumers. They don't have to. They have plenty of acceptable choices.

[cropcircles]

It's a little late to back track now but Windows 8 was marketed wrong by MS and should of been presented as a different flavor geared towards touchscreen tablets and Windows smartphones, not as an upgrade to Windows 7. Windows 8 will NEVER be accepted by the business community. The learning curve would be too enormous to train people over to.

[The Evil Overlord]

I'm sorry, but no, it's not exactly priced 'off the earth'

strip clubs, on the other hand......

[trooper11]

That all sounds good. Buy one, get the other at a significant discount seems reasonable, get the other free, probably not.

 

MS should double-time it though. Unlike years past, the markets aren't standing still and neither are consumers. They don't have to. They have plenty of acceptable choices.

Yeah, I have no idea if they have enough time to pull it off., but at least they seem to be going that way if you look at various steps being taken lately.

[Dot Matrix]

It's a little late to back track now but Windows 8 was marketed wrong by MS and should of been presented as a different flavor geared towards touchscreen tablets and Windows smartphones, not as an upgrade to Windows 7. Windows 8 will NEVER be accepted by the business community. The learning curve would be too enormous to train people over to.

Just how would it be impossible to train users on the start screen? Hell, if a business is deploying tablets, and people use it there, then what?

[Atomic Wanderer Chicken]

If Windows 7 really was not good like Windows Vista was, then Windows 8 would have really taken off. Windows 8's problem is, Windows 7 is seen as perfect by almost everyone and is why Windows 8's adoption rate is considerably slow

[MorganX]

Windows licensing on new computers and for businesses. I do wonder how much they actually make off of upgrades. 

 

If anything, the current pricing scheme is designed to make people consider buying a new computer rather than upgrading an old one. My guess is OEMs get more value out of it than Microsoft.

 

That can get tricky, especially with EAs as Apex alluded to. MS has shown a willingness to reduce OEM costs for Windows with v8.x. I think they cut close to 25% leaving them with guesstimates of around $60-80 per OEM license for new PCs. Now despite the lack of year over year sales growth, you're still talking close to a hundred million PCs in the US alone. Billions of dollars a year, more if Office is bundled.

 

The numbers may be off, but you get the idea. They're not going to give away Windows. I wouldn't either. I would reduce the cost significantly, or add more value. Make the core apps top notch, include Media Center, and maybe not reduce the cost at all. Consumers will pay when they perceive they're getting their money's worth and if you sell them what they want, or think they want.