NASA warned plan to send humans to Mars may fail

[Hum]

Washington (AFP) - The US space agency NASA has been warned that its mission to send humans to Mars will fail unless its revamps its methods and draws up a clear, well-planned strategy to conquer the red planet.

The National Research Council said in a congressionally-mandated report that Washington should use "stepping stones" to achieve its goal of a manned flight to Mars.

This could involve exploring an asteroid, building a moon outpost or building more international cooperation with countries like China.

"To continue on the present course... is to invite failure, disillusionment and the loss of the longstanding international perception that human spaceflight is something the United States does best," said the NRC's 286-page report.

NASA welcomed the report's findings, saying it was consistent with the agency's Mars plan approved by Congress and President Barack Obama's administration.

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[FloatingFatMan]

Getting to Mars certainly would be easier if it were a global combined effort.  Would help spread the cost for a start!

[DocM]

As we learned with ISS, the cost spreading "benefit" is often an illusion as far as the US is concerned. Other partners barter some module or project that for politics gets valued higher than it actually is and we end up with 80%+ of the bill anyhow.

The Moon would at most be useful for testing habitats, wheeled transports and such and they're already in development. The problem is those parts that need testing could be tested in NASA's big vacuum chambers or in the high deserts where they tested Apollo gear. A coin flip.

Asteroid missions make little sense, and the Administration's proposal to capture one and return it to lunar orbit for examination makes less sense the more you look at it.

?RC is full of it on this one.

[FloatingFatMan]

Obviously, it would have to be -proper- international cooperation for it to work, and not just an exercise in horse trading.

[DocM]

Hopefully - but examples of that are few and far between.

[FloatingFatMan]

Hopefully - but examples of that are few and far between.

 

Alas, truer words are rarely spoken; damned politicians!

[Hum]

Maybe they can shack up with some Martians. ;)

[blerk]

I think the best thing Congress could do is to commit to an increased amount of funding for NASA for x number years. Perhaps commit to giving NASA an extra 2 billion per year for 10 years, on top of their current budget, for future deep space missions. 

 

2 billion/year is peanuts in terms of overall US budget and the probable total cost required to actually send a crew to Mars, but with a clear commitment by congress, I bet NASA could really stretch that money a long way. 

 

 

Asteroid missions make little sense, and the Administration's proposal to capture one and return it to lunar orbit for examination makes less sense the more you look at it.

 

I think a mission such as this would be a worthwhile stepping stone on a journey to Mars. Considering the leap from a trip -> moon to a trip -> mars, a mission of increased technical complexity, but not as extravagant as a trip to Mars is a worthwhile engineering and scientific waypoint. 

[FloatingFatMan]

2 billion/year is peanuts in terms of overall US budget and the probable total cost required to actually send a crew to Mars, but with a clear commitment by congress, I bet NASA could really stretch that money a long way. 

 

 

NASA is a government agency.  They'd spend that 2 billion on a single hammer and all the associated certifications, security vets and other stupid red tape nonsense they love to throw money away on.

 

Give it to SpaceX, they'll make better use of it!

[blerk]

NASA is a government agency.  They'd spend that 2 billion on a single hammer and all the associated certifications, security vets and other stupid red tape nonsense they love to throw money away on.

 

Give it to SpaceX, they'll make better use of it!

:D

 

The other ~15 Billion (i.e. the normal budget) is for them to buy all the certified aerospace-grade red tape. The 2 billion would be specifically for giving to private companies a la SpaceX and for NASA's various research centres to use to increase their research tempo. :P

[Osiris]

I think the only way the American congress will again take up the race for discovery is when there actually is a race.  Might take another 10 - 20 years but eventually another nation be it china, EU, or Russia will set a goal for proper space exploration and as soon as they do im sure NASA will get everything they need for another decade. 

[macoman]

Give it to SpaceX, they'll make better use of it!

Agreed with you. Government agencies does not manage their budget correctly and most will go over the budget. Space X has demonstrated with previous launches that they can do a lot with 1/2 of the budget of NASA.

[Anibal P]

I think the only way the American congress will again take up the race for discovery is when there actually is a race.  Might take another 10 - 20 years but eventually another nation be it china, EU, or Russia will set a goal for proper space exploration and as soon as they do im sure NASA will get everything they need for another decade. 

 

 

Going to take a political revolution first, there are too many, mainly on the Left, that view America being good or leading anything like that as a negative and have been working for years to reduce our position in many international ventures, they would all need to go first before any real progress can happen, but aint gon happen 

[macoman]

Going to take a political revolution first, there are too many, mainly on the Left, that view America being good or leading anything like that as a negative and have been working for years to reduce our position in many international ventures, they would all need to go first before any real progress can happen, but aint gon happen 

I don't know where you got that idea but most of NASA budget has been cut since Republican took control of congress in the 90's and them in the last decade. But you know, I really don't care about NASA anymore, it has been a failure in space flights after the lunar landing. They never send any crew to the moon or to another planet. I rather have Space X take control of future flights with a crew inside and be a permanent contractor for the government. They had demonstrated that with little money they can do anything.

[DocM]

Going to take a political revolution first, there are too many, mainly on the Left, that view America being good or leading anything like that as a negative and have been working for years to reduce our position in many international ventures, they would all need to go first before any real progress can happen, but aint gon happen

There is certainly that element, and this administration has more than its share of them, but it isn't limited to the left.

Across the political spectrum there are those who look at NASA as a make-work jobs program - no accomplishments required so long as their district gets its cut.

[Hum]

I think the best thing Congress could do is to commit to an increased amount of funding for NASA for x number years.

Where will the money come from ?

 

The USA is already headed toward bankruptcy.

[macoman]

Where will the money come from ?

The USA is already headed toward bankruptcy.

There are a lot of sources that money can come from. First, closed unnecessary military bases around the world. That's billions of dollars in savings for NASA and many more for other agencies.

[Shiranui]

Of course it is. We are decades away from doing it.

We should establish a permanent base on the moon first, with any future interplanetary missions being launched from there.

Not going to happen in my lifetime, though. (no reason why it couldn't have)

 

I say we go the Capricorn One route.

[Auditor]

What is point of sending human there anyway. If you want to send human for the sake of experiment then just train couple of murder convicts and give them one way ticket to Mars. Problem solved. 

[macoman]

What is point of sending human there anyway. If you want to send human for the sake of experiment then just train couple of murder convicts and give them one way ticket to Mars. Problem solved. 

You think convicts will be able to establish a colony in another planet? They can't live civilized with other convicts in jail, how you think they will work together for the sake of a future colony? that's just the most dumb idea ever.

[DocM]

What is point of sending human there anyway. If you want to send human for the sake of experiment then just train couple of murder convicts and give them one way ticket to Mars. Problem solved.

The end goal is colonization, making humanity a multi-planet species, and like it or not it will be attempted and it is the corporate goal of SpaceX.

The fact is that their Mars rocket, which will be several times as powerful of Saturn V, is in development NOW.

Its Raptor methane engine components have begun testing at NASA Stemnis (started in May) and the rockets design is a straightforward thing from there.

Right now it looks like Raptor will have ~1.7 million lbs of thrust and the "BFR" (placeholder name) will use 9 of them per core. Being methane fueled they will have much more total impulse than the Saturn V's F-1 engine.

The Mars Colonial Transporter is likewise in development, and how it will work can probably be inferred from their Dragon V2 crew spacecraft; multiple landing engines for redundancy etc.

The initial habitation modules will likely be expandable structures based on Bigelow Aerospaces tech; stronger than metal, highly resistant to impacts, high radiation resistance.

The Mars Base 10 concept may be close.

http://spacearchitect.org/pubs/AIAA-2012-3557.pdf

[macoman]

The end goal is colonization, making humanity a multi-planet species, and like it or not it will be attempted and it is the corporate goal of SpaceX.

The fact is that their Mars rocket, which will be several times as powerful of Saturn V, is in development NOW.

Its Raptor methane engine components have begun testing at NASA Stemnis (started in May) and the rockets design is a straightforward thing from there.

Right now it looks like Raptor will have ~1.7 million lbs of thrust and the "BFR" (placeholder name) will use 9 of them per core. Being methane fueled they will have much more total impulse than the Saturn V's F-1 engine.

The Mars Colonial Transporter is likewise in development, and how it will work can probably be inferred from their Dragon V2 crew spacecraft; multiple landing engines for redundancy etc.

The initial habitation modules will likely be expandable structures based on Bigelow Aerospaces tech; stronger than metal, highly resistant to impacts, high radiation resistance.

The Mars Base 10 concept may be close.

http://spacearchitect.org/pubs/AIAA-2012-3557.pdf

Looks pretty cool, hope it works out well.

[DocM]

I'd expect something more cylindrical. Very likely the structure will expand from the perimeter of the lander, which will then serve as the engineering core.

[macoman]

The only thing that I worry about it's small meteorites that come from space. Mars does not have an atmosphere that can destroy it. How are they going to deal with it?  

[jasondefaoite]

You think convicts will be able to establish a colony in another planet? They can't live civilized with other convicts in jail, how you think they will work together for the sake of a future colony? that's just the most dumb idea ever.

 

Worked for Australia :p