America unprepared for bird flu threat

[_sphinx_]

Sept. 29, 2005 ? There are new concerns in the Senate over whether the United States is prepared for the mysterious and deadly avian flu.

The avian flu virus is spread by chickens, ducks and other birds and has been a problem in Southeast Asia for years. Since late 2003, it has killed at least 65 people in four Asian countries and has also been found in birds in Russia and Europe.

With strains of the virus found in humans, there has been growing concern among U.S. officials about the possibility of a pandemic and whether the United States is prepared to combat the disease.

"Experts warn that a global, cataclysmic pandemic is not a question of 'if' but 'when,' " said Sen. Bill Frist, R-Tenn.

Millions of Americans Could Be Infected; Treatment Shortage

The draft report of the federal government's emergency plan predicts that as many as 200 million Americans could be infected and 200,000 could die within a few months if the avian flu came to the United States. Right now, there is no vaccine to stop the flu.

"The first thing is, everybody in America's going to say, 'Where's a vaccine?' And they're going to find out that it's really darned hard to make a vaccine," said Laurie Garrett, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations. "It takes a really long time."

Although there is no avian flu vaccine, there is one medicine to treat it: Tamiflu. Tamiflu is made by the Roche pharmaceutical company with its plant in Switzerland. Roche says it has been selling Tamiflu for years. Scientists, however, have only recently realized that it is the sole medicine proven effective against avian flu. This has sparked a huge demand for Tamiflu and a shortage of the medicine.

"Our current stockpile is around 2 ? million courses of treatment," Garrett said. "[it] Looks like we have a shortage."

United States Not at Top of Waiting List

Roche has set up a first-come, first-served waiting list for Tamiflu and sources told ABC News that the United States is nowhere near the top of that list. U.S. officials say they are working to obtain Tamiflu quickly.

Source

[rumbleph1$h]

Since this "pandemic virus" has killed only ~60 people worldwide in 2.5 years, I'm guessing it's not our top priority. Either way, "U.S. officials say they are working to obtain Tamiflu quickly". I'm guessing Egypt couldn't say the same.

[mntbikeracer1]

Media scare tactics like this are so amuzing, remeber those killer bees that were supposed to swarm accross america over the past 10 years, or how about west nile..... LOL

And even worse people who believe this crap.

[Fred Derf Veteran]

Other pandemic flus have caused a huge loss of human life. Hopefully this situation will stay contained but it should not be dismissed as a non-threat.

The Spanish Flu Pandemic, also known as the Great Influenza Pandemic, the 1918 Flu Epidemic, and La Grippe, was an unusually severe and deadly strain of influenza, a viral infectious disease, that killed some 25 million to 50 million people worldwide in 1918 and 1919. It is thought to have been one of the most deadly pandemics so far in human history.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Flu

[Thread Title Edited] (it did sound like flame-bait)

[Jelly2003]

Since this "pandemic virus" has killed only ~60 people worldwide in 2.5 years, I'm guessing it's not our top priority. Either way, "U.S. officials say they are working to obtain Tamiflu quickly". I'm guessing Egypt couldn't say the same.

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I think that you're not getting the point. I didn't know what all the fuss was about till recently when I found out about the virus.

At the moment it is a sickness that is can only be caught from a bird. So you need to come in contact with an infected bird to get sick from it. In Asia it is easy because they aren't as strict with their birds. Walk down a street full of markets and you literally see people sucking the snot out of a chicken's beak. It's no wonder that they get infected with the virus.

The influenza virus is one of the most highly adaptable viruses in existance, every year there are hundreds of new variations of the human influenza virus to deal with. Humans haven't had to deal with bird flu in the past so therefore you get sicker from it and there is a much higher mortality rate.

What they're fearing is that eventually a strand of this flu will infect a human and then it will mutate while in that human so that it can spread from person to person. If the virus ever achieves this then it will be possible to get infected just like the regular flu.

The World Health Organisation is estimating that between 5 million and 25 million people world wide will die from the virus if it mutates to transmit from human to human. It all depends on the preparedness of the world's governments.

I know that Australia is stockpiling treatments for the diesease and also has a lock down plan in place so nobody can come in or out of the country if the virus mutates to transmit from human to human. The US should also have similar plans rather then waiting for the virus to become a pandemic before acting, when it's too late, and possibly already in the country, of course it is also not as big of a threat to the USA because they're not right next door to countries where virus exists like Australia is.

Once the virus is in a country and there is very little treatment available then it will be a massive task trying to contain the virus and many people will die as a result.

EDIT: In 1997 18 people were infected in Hong Kong, of which 6 died, thats a 33% mortality rate. To put that in perspective, take the common flu, when it goes around how many people do you know get it? Imagine if 1 in 3 of those people died from it. Thats why it is a threat that should be taken seriously.

Edited October 2, 2005 by Jelly2003

[Hum]

:rolleyes: I don't think running to the drug companies over every threat is the answer.

How about we believe in our health, and take good care of our bodies ?

[Jelly2003]

:rolleyes: I don't think running to the drug companies over every threat is the answer.

How about we believe in our health, and take good care of our bodies ?

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I'm not suggesting that people run to their local chemist and buy the whole place out, nor am I suggesting that stockpiles of medicine are the answer. I'm simply stating that it is a possible threat that needs to be taken seriously and governments should be prepared for it.

There is more to being prepared then just having stockpiles of medicine, you also need plans for quarantine, good hospitals, efficient emergency response, etc, etc.

I totally agree that your level of fitness would have a huge impact on your chances of survival. It doesn't matter if there are health threats or not, people should always look after their health and fitness.

Having the vaccine would help prevent people from getting infected in the first place and having treatments stockpiled helps people survive who might not survive on their own. Also remember that once you're infected, it doesn't matter how fit you are, you spread the virus just like everybody else does.

Doesn't it make sense to actually prevent people from getting infected in the first place?

Doesn't it also make sense to stock pile drugs that might save the lives of many people?

PS. I'm also well aware that this could turn into nothing just like SARS did. The media does like to exhadurate, thats why I never really take what they say very seriously.

Edited October 2, 2005 by Jelly2003

[Fred Derf Veteran]

:rolleyes: I don't think running to the drug companies over every threat is the answer.

How about we believe in our health, and take good care of our bodies ?

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You don't necessarily need to have 295,000,000 doses ready and stockpiled but you need to have a plan to know what factories/labs could be quickly converted to produce the drugs required. You also need a small supply on hand to deal with containment of a local area.

The thing with this bird flu is, if it were ever spread from person to person, that the mortality rate would be something like 50% of the people infected.

I don't think it is a good plan to just rely on good general health and figure that at least 150 million Americans will still pull through.

[Envark]

The sky is falling!

The sky is falling!

The sky is falling!

[Fred Derf Veteran]

Oct. 4, 2005. 03:44 PM

Bush would use military to contain avian flu

CANADIAN PRESS

WASHINGTON ? President George W. Bush, increasingly concerned about a possible avian flu pandemic, said today that any part of the country where the virus breaks out could likely be quarantined, and he's considering using the military to enforce it.

``The best way to deal with a pandemic is to isolate it and keep it isolated in the region in which it begins," he said.

After the bungled initial federal response to hurricane Katrina, Bush suggested putting the Pentagon in charge of search-and-rescue efforts in times of a major terrorist attack or similarly catastrophic natural disaster. He has argued that the armed forces have the ability to quickly mobilize the equipment, manpower and communications capabilities needed in times of crisis.

But such a shift could require a change in law, and some in Congress and the states worry it would increase the power of the federal government at the expense of local control.

Bush made clear that the potential for an outbreak of avian flu is much on his mind, and has had him talking with "as many (world) leaders as I could find."

He acknowledged that a quarantine ? an idea sure to alarm many ? is no small thing for the government to undertake and that enforcing it would be tricky.

"It's one thing to shut down airplanes," Bush said. "It's another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu."

He urged Congress to give him the ability to use the military, if needed.

"I think the president ought to have all . . . assets on the table to be able to deal with something this significant," he said.

As a standby precaution, Bush signed an executive order in April that added pandemic influenza to the government's list of communicable diseases for which a quarantine is authorized. It gives the government legal authority to detain or isolate a passenger arriving in the United States to prevent an infection from spreadin.

Bush also said he has been urging world leaders to improve reporting on outbreaks of the virus, and exploring how to speed the production of a spray, now in limited supply, that "can maybe help arrest the spread of the disease."

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentSe...tacodalogin=yes

[sdb815]

He urged Congress to give him the ability to use the military, if needed.

Oh noes! Remember what happened last time we did that? :pinch: :laugh:

[MonkeyClaw Veteran]

hahahahahahaha good point.

well this is rather worriesome, but what is the mortality rate for regular flu? is this really so much worse than the common every year stuff? i am really uninformed about this, i keep thinking of that damn movie outbreak with dustin hoffmann. that is enough to freak ya out...

[Diffused Mind]

Hey, wheres that "Republicans call for action" mantra BOOG posted from an email? :laugh:

[MonkeyClaw Veteran]

ah wonderful, sounds like fun. im sooo glad my country is doing all it can to protect its people from it :rolleyes:

[Fred Derf Veteran]

hahahahahahaha good point.

well this is rather worriesome, but what is the mortality rate for regular flu?  is this really so much worse than the common every year stuff?  i am really uninformed about this, i keep thinking of that damn movie outbreak with dustin hoffmann.  that is enough to freak ya out...

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About half the people who get it (H5N1) die. Compare this to the Spanish Flu (H1N1) that killed 25-50 million people with only a 5% mortality rate.

[Yochanan]

Two words: Viral F****ing Weapons.

[NTUsEr Veteran]

what? Posse Comitatus? what? noo that doesn't mean anything! :argh: :angry:

[~WinGz~]

this is somthing like resident eivl apoc if you think abou it, they had everyone quarantined into a city then everyone dies. but hopefully our government tries to help the ppl instead of letting them just die.

[mAcOdIn Veteran]

Well actually letting people die would be helping if the containment actually worked. It sounds heartless but it all depends, it's just a contingency plan, not an inevitable outcome.

Personally there's not much the government could do to actually protect us short of killing every bird on the planet.

[mAcOdIn Veteran]

I view protection and reaction as two totally different things. If the government could actually protect us there'd be no real chance of it getting here, but they can't, so the real question is what can they do once it hits? How many can they save?

But I wouldn't confuse that with protection.

[Fred Derf Veteran]

Toronto had a dress rehersal with the whole SARS crisis a few years ago.

[Vykranth]

Given the fact that in 1918, the Spanish flu spread across the entire globe, you may consider that in 2005, as it is far easier to travel across the globe, the bird flu would be developping much faster, making the containment policy and the use of military forces ultimately useless.

[Fred Derf Veteran]

U.S. plans to fight flu overseas

Thursday, October 6, 2005 Posted at 8:46 AM EDT

Associated Press

Washington ? The United States plans to fight a potential flu pandemic are based on the same strategy used to battle a forest fire during a drought: Watch for the spark and race to extinguish it before it spreads.

Outlining the pandemic plan, Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt said Wednesday that U.S. health officials would rush overseas to wherever a bird flu outbreak occurred and work with local officials to try to contain it.

?If you can get there fast enough and apply good public health techniques of isolating and quarantining and medicating and vaccinating the people in that area, you can ... squelch it or you can delay it,? Mr. Leavitt said in an interview with The Associated Press.

Mr. Leavitt is travelling to Asia to shore up international co-operation should bird flu mutate to easily infect people.

To further that goal, more than 65 countries and international organizations were to participate in discussions Thursday at the State Department about preparations for the possibility of worsening bird flu.

Next week, Mr. Leavitt plans to meet with leaders of the Southeast Asia countries that are the epicentre of the virus.

There have been three flu pandemics in the last century; the worst, in 1918, killed as many as 50 million people worldwide.

Scientists say it is only a matter of time before the next worldwide influenza outbreak. Concern is rising that it could be triggered by the avian flu called H5N1.

That virus has killed or led to the slaughter of millions of birds, mostly in Asia, but also in parts of Europe. It has killed about 60 people, mostly poultry workers, because so far the virus does not spread easily from person to perThe fear is that it will mutate to spread easily, a catastrophe because H5N1 is so different from annual flu strains that people have no natural immunity.y.

?The probability that the H5N1 virus will create a pandemic is uncertain. The signs are worrisome,? Mr. Leavitt said. He added that the updated pandemic plan, due this month, envisions other super-strains of flu, too.

Appearing Thursday on CBS's The Early Show, Mr. Leavitt acknowledged that ?no one in the world is ready? for such a catastrophe.

?The good news is, we do have a vaccine,? Mr. Leavitt added. But he also said there isn't an ability to produce it quickly enough or in sufficient quantity in the event of an emergency.

?It's enough of a possibility that it demands our attention,? he said. ?We have to be prepared all the time ... for that type of problem and we need to improve.?

Role-playing different outbreak possibilities over the past few months led federal health officials to broaden their focus on how to detect a bird-flu mutation in another country and quickly send overseas help.

If that fails, the pandemic plans' first draft last year called for closing schools, restricting travel and other old-fashioned quarantine steps, depending on how fast the super-strain was spreading and its virulence. Those steps are getting renewed attention after President George W. Bush's comments Tuesday that troops might have to be dispatched to enforce a mass quarantine.

Typically, state and local authorities deal with quarantine decisions ? isolating the sick and closing large gatherings where diseases might spread.

?They have to be prepared, and frankly they're not,? Mr. Leavitt said.

The updated plan will outline when federal health officials will take over for the locals, something that will depend on how the flu is spreading, he said. For instance, mass quarantines were needed in 1918, but not during the pandemics of 1957 and 1968, he said.

As for treatment, HHS last month began spending $100 million for the first large-scale production of a bird flu vaccine. But the department has been criticized for only stockpiling enough of the anti-flu drug Tamiflu for several million people. The Senate last week passed legislation that would increase those purchases by $3 billion.

A bigger gap is how to create quickly a vaccine to match whatever pandemic flu strain erupts, Mr. Leavitt said. That currently takes months. The new plan will focus on rejuvenating vaccine production to speed the process, he said.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto.../International/

Also not sure if everyone is aware but humans still carry partial immunity due to the 1918 flu.

586631729[/snapback]

How many of us were alive in 1918?

[Qumahlin]

Toronto had a dress rehersal with the whole SARS crisis a few years ago.

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Yeah and look how badly that was handled. Then lets look at the fact that SARS was 99% media hype, 1% deadly virus

Which is why you hear nothing about SARS anymore, the media can only scare people so much before noone cares anymore.

the 1918 flu was actually the same as this "super" flu and was a mutated strain of avian flu. From tests that have been run on the avian flu of 1918 versus current flus it's found that while the very young and very elderly would be at high risk, the rest of the population would be fine using current antivirals already on the market.

Also not sure if everyone is aware but humans still carry partial immunity due to the 1918 flu.

[Fred Derf Veteran]

The sky is falling!

The sky is falling!

The sky is falling!

586609875[/snapback]

Maximum 360 million dead

Thursday, October 6, 2005

H5N1 flu

Many experts say it is only a matter of time before there's another major influenza pandemic. From year to year, the virus changes only slightly, so most healthy people develop a certain level of resistance to the annual flu bug. They may get really sick but it won't kill them unless their overall health is already compromised. However, new deadly strains do emerge, particularly when the virus jumps back and forth between animals and people. In this cross-species exchange, the virus can pick up new genetic traits from flu viruses that normally attack birds, pigs or other animals. This gene-swapping can produce an especially virulent strain. In the past century, three major flu pandemics struck the human population.

Some experts believe the so-called H5N1 bird flu strain now circulating in Asia will be the origin of the next pandemic. Scientists have predicted a death toll ranging from fewer than 2 million to 360 million.

Hong Kong flu, 1968-1969

The Hong Kong flu virus resulted from bird and human flu viruses exchanging genes. It was first detected in early 1968 and claimed between 750,000 and 1 million lives. It was the mildest of the three 20th-century flu pandemics. In some ways, the Hong Kong flu was similar to the Asian flu, which might have provided people with some immunity to it.

Began in mid-July, 1968, in southeastern China

Spread to Hong Kong in the same month, reached maximum intensity within two weeks.

Spread worldwide, but clinical symptoms mild and mortality low; disease spread slowly.

The United States epidemic began in California in September, carried by troops returning from Vietnam. In Europe, the epidemic began in December in Britain, and progressed until early April, 1969.

Total estimated death toll: 1 million

Asian flu, 1957-1958

The Asian flu originated in China in 1957 and spread worldwide that same year. The virus lasted until 1958. It is believed to have passed through pigs and birds before infecting humans.

Broke out at the end of February, 1957, in a single province in China.

Spread throughout China in March, and reached Hong Kong by the middle of April.

Within six months, every part of the world had experienced cases.

European and U.S. epidemics exploded with the opening of schools in September, but the first wave ended by December. The second wave appeared between one and three months after the first, and affected mostly the elderly.

Total estimated death toll: 2 million

Spanish flu, 1918-1919

The Spanish flu pandemic was an unusually severe and deadly strain of influenza that killed between 25 million to 50 million people worldwide in 1918 and 1919, though the toll may have climbed as high as 100 million. It is thought to have been one of the most deadly pandemics in human history. The latest research suggests an avian virus acquired mutations that allowed it to infect humans.

First wave: simultaneous outbreaks in March, 1918, in Europe and in different parts of the United States.

Infection travelled back and forth between Europe and the United States via troop ships, then spread to Asia and Africa.

Highly contagious, but not especially deadly.

Second wave: near the end of August, 1918, simultaneous outbreaks in France, Sierra Leone and the United States with a 10-fold increase in the death rate. Most deaths in young and healthy persons between ages of 15 and 35.

Spread throughout the world, except to Australia, which maintained a strict maritime quarantine, so the flu arrived there later, at the start of 1919, and was milder. But it lasted longer than elsewhere.

25 per cent of the world's population fell ill.

Total estimated death toll: 25 million to 100 million

The World Health Organization, in assessing the epidemic threat in January, 2005, estimates

2 million to 7.4 million deaths

David Nabarro, United Nations co-ordinator for avian and human influenza, in a news conference, Sept. 29, 2005, estimates 5 million to 150 million deaths.

Michael Osterholm, director of the Centre for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, estimates between 180 million and 360 million deaths.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/Art...EMIC06/TPHealth