Analyst: "I cannot imagine a PlayStation 4"

[Spartan_X]

Analyst: "I cannot imagine a PlayStation 4"

Nomura Securities' Yuta Sakurai believes the PS3 will be Sony's last console; sees Hirai appointment as Sega-like shift to software.

In the months leading up to the launch of the PlayStation 3 and Wii, barely a week went by without one analyst or another issuing proclamations of doom or promises of riches for both Sony and Nintendo. Now that both consoles are on the market, many investment firms' in-house game-industry experts are giving their assessments of the two companies' fortunes.

The prognostication reached a fever pitch today, when Sony Computer Entertainment (SCE) shuffled its executive lineup. Sony Computer Entertainment America (SCEA) president Kaz Hirai took over the position of SCE president Ken Kutaragi, who was promoted to SCE chairman and retained the title of SCE group CEO. Hirai will also be SCE's chief operating officer, and will relocate to Sony's Tokyo headquarters from SCEA's HQ in Foster City, California.

While Sony spun the changes as a "strengthening" of its executive team, many analysts saw it as a vote of no confidence for Kutaragi's stewardship of the PlayStation 3. The high-tech console's blu-ray laser drive has been plagued by component manufacturing woes, which drastically limited supply of the console for its Japanese and North American launches, and delayed its European debut until 2007.

Some analysts went one step further, taking Hirai's succession as a harbinger of doom. No one was more pessimistic than Nomura Securities' Yuta Sakurai, who made the astounding prediction that the PlayStation 3 would be the last console Sony, the current console market-share leader, would ever make.

"The appointment of Hirai could be the start of a shift from hardware to software," said Sakurai. "I cannot now imagine a PlayStation 4." According to the Financial Times, Sakurai's reasoning is that "Hirai?s new global portfolio puts a predominantly software-focused manager in charge of the company." His logic is reportedly that, with the emphasis moving to software, Sony would go the way of Sega, transforming from a console-maker to a mere game publisher.

Critics were quick to point out that, despite its problems, Sony is primarily an electronics manufacturer, and has invested billions in the research and development of the PS3's technology. Despite the hyperbolic tone of Sakurai's comments, SCEA publicity chief Dave Karraker issued a polite response. "Following the launch of the PlayStation 3 just a few weeks ago, and witnessing the huge consumer demand for the product, I think it would be rather short-sighted for anyone to predict there might not be a next generation of PlayStation product," he told GameSpot.

By Tor Thorsen -- GameSpot

Posted Nov 30, 2006 9:20 pm CT

Story from GameSpot: http://www.gamespot.com/news/6162560.html

Copyright ?2006 CNET Networks, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

[User6060]

It's way too early to tell how well the PS3 will be adopted. Sure it sold out but it wasn't like there was tons to go around.

[Sniper101]

Nar no PS4, look at the Playstation Markets for this year and last year, there not doing so well. Either sony will stop making the Playstation due to Money problems or they will just risk it and do another console.

But its hard to tell what will happen next, PS3 Launched its all down to how well it does in the Markets. If it does good its possible we can see another one coming. If it does Bad then pack your suitecase and move to a new console. Iv watched the Playstation Markets for the PS2 and lets just say things didnt pick up till the SlimPS2 came out ;).

[HawkMan]

If this generation isn't the last generation of gamign consoles, the next one surely will be.

these will last 5 years at least, within 5-10 years we'll move away from computers as we know them today, enthusasts will probably retain big component based computers. but majorly we'll in some 5 years see a shift into compact boxed computers where if everything isn't on one cheap, it'll almost be.

Effective and cheap to produce. and upgrades simply be replacing the box rather than replacing parts and stuff, and you then have a fully upgraded computer, with parts guaranteed to work together well, at their most efficient. basically makign future computers consoles on their own, making consoles in themselves obsolete.

so your next console will probably be a computer anyway,

Might not happen fast enough to make the next generation of consoles obsolete, but we'll probably not see a generation after that at least. We're allready moving there with regular computers, and Apple has been heading there a long time.

[Mathachew Veteran]

It's far too early to make any kind of call like this. I mean, the thing has been out for a whopping 3 weeks. Maybe the PS3 will suddenly boom as more consoles are released, Sony decides to lower royalty and develop kit costs, and so on and so forth. This whole thing could turn around and Sony could come out ahead of everyone. They could also bomb. Time will tell, but there's no need to think that far ahead. The PS3 is here and will be for the next couple of years at least.

[Brandon Live Veteran]

That's a weird statement to be making - although I suppose it's possible in 5 years there may not even be a Sony anymore. Or that it will have to "reinvent" itself if its financial situation gets too terrible, which certainly could mean leaving the console market I suppose.

[sundayx Veteran]

well i wouldnt have imagined that by 2005 there would be a xbox 360... i mean, we havent even got to 2 yet....

[Xerxes]

There will be a PS4 (and 5 and 6....) Sony are the current market leaders and they are here to stay.

I would say it will be more like it could be MS's last console, I don't think they ever made a profit off the Xbox 1? (or did they?) and the Xbox 360 isn't doing much better...while the 360 is a great console (well I think so) it's just not doing that well and since MS is primarily a Software company (their computer hardware is pretty top notch though) I think it's them that we might not see "next gen"..but we will wait and see I guess :) (I do hope MS do stick around though)

[tiddlie]

I just look at the difference in prices on Ebay 2 weeks after launch of the Xbox 360 vs PS3. If memory serves me right, the Xbox 360 (which was cheaper in the first place), was going upto ?850 for a premium console.

The PS3 can be bought for ?400 at the moment on Ebay if you look hard enough.

That, to me, says the PS3 is not as desireable as the 360, and therefore Sony have their work cut out to turn this around.

[The2]

Hm.. PS2 was sold over 100 milion! And it's still manufactured, and why do you think Ps3 will gonna be something different? It has BluRay, that's good, why buy a HD-dvd or bluray player, if you can buy a blu ray and game console in one? And, every console is expensive at start. People, this isn't a small company that plays weird games, it's a sony, they are to big to risk (like MS) one of their most profitable subsidiaries. Common, re-look at this in a year and a half.

and btw. here where I live (Europe) everybody has playstation, and you can't even legally buy Xbox. Ofcourse, all playstations are "chipped" but... we, alone, are a big market.. atleast for older generation

[Pc_Madness]

There will be a PS4 (and 5 and 6....) Sony are the current market leaders and they are here to stay.

I would say it will be more like it could be MS's last console, I don't think they ever made a profit off the Xbox 1? (or did they?) and the Xbox 360 isn't doing much better...while the 360 is a great console (well I think so) it's just not doing that well and since MS is primarily a Software company (their computer hardware is pretty top notch though) I think it's them that we might not see "next gen"..but we will wait and see I guess :) (I do hope MS do stick around though)

Yeah, I agree, Sony can't be killed, as much as I would like them too.

And, MS is currently making a small profit on the 360 reports have said.

[The Teej]

M$ is making $75 profit on each 360 sold, I'd say that's a nice profit for now.

I can forsee a PS4, I just don't know what it will be like.

[Huleboeren]

Nar no PS4, look at the Playstation Markets for this year and last year, there not doing so well. Either sony will stop making the Playstation due to Money problems or they will just risk it and do another console.

But its hard to tell what will happen next, PS3 Launched its all down to how well it does in the Markets. If it does good its possible we can see another one coming. If it does Bad then pack your suitecase and move to a new console. Iv watched the Playstation Markets for the PS2 and lets just say things didnt pick up till the SlimPS2 came out ;).

Yeah. lets take a look

The ps2s are still selling like hot chocolate - outselling the x360

[nomis_nehc]

well, from a financial stand point, if a miracle doesn't happen for ps3's production, it will be sony's last console.

i forget the exact numbers, but i recall sony losing about $200 a piece for each ps3 sold right now... selling around 300,000 units thus far has cost them $60,000,000. that's 60 million dollars. selling a million units would mean a net loss of $200,000,000... that's a lot if you ask anybody.

should i remind everyone that xbox360's have sold around 7 million units already? a very apparent thing that will happen is many exclusive developers will wake the hell up and jump onto the profitable bandwagon... and pretty soon sony will have nothing left going for them.

lastly, it doesn't help that the developers are complaining how much more difficult it is to program for the ps3. (which is understandable for a new console, but hey look, xbox360 is much easier...!)

[+InsaneNutter MVC]

Of course they will be a PS4, I mean just look at Nintendo... I?m told the N64 didn?t really do too well against the PS1 (I had no interest in consoles back then), The GameCube did awful against the PS2 and Xbox and Nintendo have still managed to bring the Wii out, I see no reason why they won?t be a PS4.

[Brandon]

Of course they will be a PS4, I mean just look at Nintendo... I?m told the N64 didn?t really do too well against the PS1 (I had no interest in consoles back then), The GameCube did awful against the PS2 and Xbox and Nintendo have still managed to bring the Wii out, I see no reason why they won?t be a PS4.

thats not true though. Nintendo will always have its fanbase with Mario and Zelda, not to mentoin mario party, mario kart and super smash brothers.

[Digitalx]

i'm not sure what this Playstation has been failing is coming from considering PS2 is still out-selling xbox 360 which says somthing.

[Laughing-Man]

Nar no PS4, look at the Playstation Markets for this year and last year, there not doing so well.

wtf the consoles been out for what, like two-three weeks?

[selphj]

i'm not sure what this Playstation has been failing is coming from considering PS2 is still out-selling xbox 360 which says somthing.

Come on. The dreamcast was a huge seller after they stopped manufacturing it. Why? It was like $80 and sometimes less. The sales of the PS2 at this point only means that it's cheap and many parents aren't willing to spend $250 to $600 on a newer console. There's no way you can spin the demotion of Ken as a good thing. It shows a lack of faith in the board room at Sony in the PS3's handling.

[1759]

Come on. The dreamcast was a huge seller after they stopped manufacturing it. Why? It was like $80 and sometimes less. The sales of the PS2 at this point only means that it's cheap and many parents aren't willing to spend $250 to $600 on a newer console. There's no way you can spin the demotion of Ken as a good thing. It shows a lack of faith in the board room at Sony in the PS3's handling.

If price was the only determining factor, the GC should've been out selling the PS2 and x360 for the past year.

I can't see Sony as a publishing house, as what do they really have for exclusives? GT and SOCOM?

Besides as goofy as Ken is, wasn't he named chairman? Would be weird to call that a demotion.

[Dotdot]

I,ll admit I see Sony having a hard time with the PS3 initially. But I dont think they,ll go the way of Sega anytime soon.

Remember 2 months ago analysts predicted PS3 to be a massive success! So kind of contradictory to say the least

[SnowRanger13]

Playstaton 3 was just released and sorry to let down everyone that think its going to fail because it's not. Sure it could finish last behind Wii and Xbox360 but it's still going to end up making Sony some money.

I can't see Sony pulling a Sega anytime soon, A PS4 will come around eventauly but how bout now we enjoy the next few years of X360 and PS3 gaming.

[spenser.d]

There will be a PS4 (and 5 and 6....) Sony are the current market leaders and they are here to stay.

I would say it will be more like it could be MS's last console, I don't think they ever made a profit off the Xbox 1? (or did they?) and the Xbox 360 isn't doing much better...while the 360 is a great console (well I think so) it's just not doing that well and since MS is primarily a Software company (their computer hardware is pretty top notch though) I think it's them that we might not see "next gen"..but we will wait and see I guess :) (I do hope MS do stick around though)

The Xbox 360 hardware is already turning a profit just a year after being released. That's not to mention all the software and peripherals that have been sold and turned a profit for MS. They have stated over and over that they have always been looking at the long run. That's why they're not particularly worried that the Xbox hardware never turned a profit. It's going to take the Playstation 3 at least 2 years to start turning a profit on hardware, at a current loss of $300 a piece. Sony is in a far worse place financially than MS.

MS is here to stay. I'm sure Sony won't be going anywhere anytime soon either.

-Spenser

[-Anthony]

And there won't be a Windows Next......

Wait development has already started.... on the Next Xbox as well.

[MGS4-SS]

Come on. The dreamcast was a huge seller after they stopped manufacturing it. Why? It was like $80 and sometimes less. The sales of the PS2 at this point only means that it's cheap and many parents aren't willing to spend $250 to $600 on a newer console. There's no way you can spin the demotion of Ken as a good thing. It shows a lack of faith in the board room at Sony in the PS3's handling.

He was promoted...