1.7 billion smartphones by 2017, Android dominates

According to a new report from market research firm Ovum, Android will have firmly established itself as the dominant mobile OS by 2017. During this time, Ovum thinks that the smartphone market will grow almost 25%, hitting 1.7 billion units by 2017. Those are some pretty big numbers.

Ovum thinks that Android's dominance is inevitable, thanks to its broad support from handset makers and the low costs involved with using it in a device. Since so many devices are being produced for the Android platform, it's just hard for anyone else to compete, especially since Android's numbers are still on the rise.

Ovum predicts that Android will have a 48% market share by 2017, compared to the 27% Apple's iOS should have by then. Adam Leach, Ovum's principal analyst, said that “While Apple has defined the smartphone market since it introduced the iPhone in 2007, we're now seeing a sharp rise in the shipment volumes of Android, signaling its appeal to leading handset manufacturers.”

Quite simply, it's just hard for Android's more locked-down competitors to maintain dominance over it, at least when it comes to marketshare. Even Microsoft's approach is shackled and drawn compared to the free-for-all that is Android.

Speaking of Microsoft, where will Windows Phone be by 2017? Ovum thinks that it will have carved out about 13% of the market by then. That's a pretty small number compared to Android, but it could still represent a lucrative niche, if executed correctly.

Perhaps most unbelievably, Ovum thinks that RIM's BlackBerry platform will still be holding on to 10% of the market in 2017. But, if RIM is still alive then, we suppose that anything is possible.

That's all pretty interesting, so long as you remember that it's all speculation. A lot can happen between now and 2017, especially in the tech sector. And even if Android does manage to maintain its dominance over the mobile market, there's still plenty of room for Apple and Microsoft to hold on to a profitable chunk of the market, especially when it comes to premium handsets.

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mcrosoft should just rise the licensing fees android has to pay them, that will stop the crap android os from infecting the planet, the whole point of this is so google can infect the whole planet and make it one big advertising scheme that pays them billions upon billions.

korupt_one said,
mcrosoft should just rise the licensing fees android has to pay them, that will stop the crap android os from infecting the planet, the whole point of this is so google can infect the whole planet and make it one big advertising scheme that pays them billions upon billions.

But then Google/Motorola will just raise the licensing fees Microsoft and its Windows and XBox products have to pay them. Or just ban them outright like Windows 7 in Germany.

simplezz said,

But then Google/Motorola will just raise the licensing fees Microsoft and its Windows and XBox products have to pay them. Or just ban them outright like Windows 7 in Germany.

I'm not too sure Microsoft is paying Google any money on Windows and Xbox, atleast I haven't heard Google having any licenses on them.

Windows phones would have died off by then.

5 years ahead projections. What happens if in 3 years someone comes up with a super virus that destroys all electronics. It won't be number one then.

Oh I know. I'm going to have a giant turd on my future super tablet with this article on it.

This is just a load of BS, predicting the technological future. Pft...

Yeah, analysts can't even predict a few weeks out, let alone five years. Remember how big of a failure analysts said the iPhone 4s was?

Yeah...yeah...

Meh .. I believe android will fail at some point when the main player (samsung) is so big they will just buy their own operating system and stop giving money to google..

Why would samsung not just buy Blackberry for 10 billion and put blackberry 10 on all their phone .. the emulator would run all their own android apps and they would start their own app store.. They would make soo much more money that way.. make microsoft pay to have blackberry 10 use their maps and search and it would be awesome.

They would destroy all the other android companies and make way more profit for themselves with complete control of their products

Lachlan said,
Meh .. I believe android will fail at some point when the main player (samsung) is so big they will just buy their own operating system and stop giving money to google..

Why would samsung not just buy Blackberry for 10 billion and put blackberry 10 on all their phone .. the emulator would run all their own android apps and they would start their own app store.. They would make soo much more money that way.. make microsoft pay to have blackberry 10 use their maps and search and it would be awesome.

They would destroy all the other android companies and make way more profit for themselves with complete control of their products

Wow, I don't know where to start with this one. Firstly, why would Samsung abandon the investment in Android that they have made? The very large majority of their smartphone range runs Android and its taken them from strength to strength. They would have to abandon the Galaxy range and all of the brand recognition they've built as a result.

Why would they also abandon the Android market, further fragment the somewhat working range of appstores and incur the costs and problems that would be involved in running their own appstore (Beyond the limited Samsung store that already exists).

You also state how they'd destroy all Android companies and while 'Android' as an OS probably isn't as known by the general user base, it is picking up steam, plus the fact that as the smartphone market matures the general user will be most likely be drawn to the devices physical characteristics and the manufacturer skin and could base future purchases on this recognition. Samsung have created a range of highly successful devices that share a similar experience through the combination of Android and Touchwiz, throwing all that to the wind and jumping on a dying ship would be idiotic.

You could argue that they have already invested in their own OS with Bada but for their high end smartphone range Android is and probably will be a large driving force for them in the future. In short, this is nonsense.

Lachlan said,
Meh .. I believe android will fail at some point when the main player (samsung) is so big they will just buy their own operating system and stop giving money to google..

Why would samsung not just buy Blackberry for 10 billion and put blackberry 10 on all their phone .. the emulator would run all their own android apps and they would start their own app store.. They would make soo much more money that way.. make microsoft pay to have blackberry 10 use their maps and search and it would be awesome.

They would destroy all the other android companies and make way more profit for themselves with complete control of their products

Because BB doesn't have their own Map & Search technology it would be better for MS to buy Nokia and dominate easily if they wanted to be in the hardware business than going to BB for an OS that is not backwards compatible and no marketplace when WP has triple more apps then BB has at the moment..
Wait...is this troll-land??

Its just a prediction. They also predicted that Linux is going to be the king of computers but its not. Infact Apple and Microsoft spending a lot of money in basic functionality and ease of use where android is just selling and selling without even controlling the quality. That is not a good sign for android...

S3P€hR said,
Its just a prediction. They also predicted that Linux is going to be the king of computers but its not.

You know that Android is Linux right? So is your router, likely Neowin's webservers too that you are posting to.

From Super computers, Desktops, Tablets, to Phones, Linux's everywhere my friend. So in that sense, it is king of computers.

simplezz said,

You know that Android is Linux right? So is your router, likely Neowin's webservers too that you are posting to.

From Super computers, Desktops, Tablets, to Phones, Linux's everywhere my friend. So in that sense, it is king of computers.

Yeah, but I think the prediction he was talking about is from the 90s and 00s where Linux was going to be the Desktop OS King.

simplezz said,

You know that Android is Linux right? So is your router, likely Neowin's webservers too that you are posting to.

Trust me, my router is not running Linux

The market share Android has is all well and good, unfortunatly the other statistic isn't as good.


Samsung and Apple may be duking it out for the number one slot in smartphone sales (particularly due to the collapse of Nokia), but the two leaders have an astonishing combined 99 percent of global handset profits for Q1 2012. Of that, Apple took in 73 percent of global handset profits, despite having just 9 percent of global handset market share, according to new quarterly analysis from Canaccord.