Analyst: Less than 500,000 Nokia Lumia phones will ship in Q4

While Nokia may be publicly saying that they are pleased with the initial reception of its Lumia 800 smartphone, that's not the case for others. AllThingsD.com reports that according to a note from Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette, shipments of the Windows Phone-based device will be much lower than he first anticipated for the fourth quarter of 2011.

Earlier, Faucette had predicted that Nokia could ship as much as 2 million units of the Lumia phones into the six European markets that were picked as the smartphone's first launch territories. Now, things are different. He states, " ... we now believe that those shipments are likely to be less than 1 million for the quarter." In fact, he believes the shipment numbers will come in at less than 500,000 units.

Keep in mind this is just one analyst's predictions. It's more than possible that Nokia was conservative in their European shipment numbers for the Lumia 800 to start with. The smartphone has also yet to launch here in the US. In any case it's far too early to start panicking over shipment and sales numbers until Nokia reveals those figures.  That will likely happen in January of 2012 when the company reveals its quarterly financial numbers for the fourth quarter of 2012.

The Lumia 800 has been well received and has already racked up some new hardware for its trophy shelf. The Lumia 800 will sell well and as soon as it starts hitting the shelves in volume globally, Microsoft will finally start to claw back into the market share of Google and Apple. 

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"The Lumia 800 will sell well and as soon as it starts hitting the shelves in volume globally, Microsoft will finally start to claw back into the market share of Google and Apple."

I'm sorry, but such blatant conjecture is jarring, unprofessional and just baffling in the context of this article.

500,000 for a partly quarter for Nokia isn't bad considering the total quarterly sales by HTC+Samsung+Dell (LG bailed out) are about 500,000, so Nokia sales will 2x WP7 sales.

ahhell said,

Great logic there considering that the Lumia is a WP7 phone. Bravo.

Comment was stating that Nokia was essentially doubling the WP7 sales of the other OEMs combined.

Read. Re-read to comprehend. Then Post.

The Lumia 800 will sell well and as soon as it starts hitting the shelves in volume globally

You say that as if it's already fact. Where is your evidence to back up this dubious claim? Stuffing sales channels doesn't guarantee sales.

Microsoft will finally start to claw back into the market share of Google and Apple.

We keep hearing this:
1. When Mango comes out WP will start jumping off the shelves...
2. When Nokia releases a WP, they'll start selling like hot cakes...
3. When Apollo comes out, WP will take over the market...

I see a pattern here...

Shipments ≠ Sales

Nokia can stuff the sales channels as much as they like, but that won't translate into actual sales. They'll just end up with warehouses full of old stock.

Joey S said,
Nokia can stuff the sales channels as much as they like

They can't actually, because of manufacturing constraints. That's the reason why Russia and India were not part of the "selected countries" where the device was launched... nor was Finland. They would have gladly done a global lauch (for the holiday season) but they don't have the manufacturing capacity for it.

Whatever the final number is, we're still just talking about one device in what is going to be a range of devices Nokia will make. Hell, the 800 might be short lived and the US could see a updated 810 for example. The thing is we don't know what they expect to ship/sell so thus any numbers that come out are just guesses. And shipping late in the 4 quarter doesn't really count does it? I mean come on.

I know someone who rushed and bought one the day it came out - and has already sent it back and (much to his relief) had it swapped for a Samsung Nexus... I was hoping he'd give me useful feedback as it'll be a few months before I can upgrade, and he (like me) was formerly a HTC Desire user. He said he sent it back because of poor battery life (I believe a fix is on the way for that) and that it messed up his Google contacts when he tried to sync it.. and it was enough to annoy him sufficiently to want rid of it?!

I'm still very keen on a Lumia however.. think it looks like a great phone and fancy a change from Android!

Chicane-UK said,
I know someone who rushed and bought one the day it came out - and has already sent it back and (much to his relief) had it swapped for a Samsung Nexus... I was hoping he'd give me useful feedback as it'll be a few months before I can upgrade, and he (like me) was formerly a HTC Desire user. He said he sent it back because of poor battery life (I believe a fix is on the way for that) and that it messed up his Google contacts when he tried to sync it.. and it was enough to annoy him sufficiently to want rid of it?!

I'm still very keen on a Lumia however.. think it looks like a great phone and fancy a change from Android!

A fix is coming soon ya, it's been stated, no solid date yet though. As for contacts not syncing right, first i've heard of that.

Chicane-UK said,
I know someone who rushed and bought one the day it came out - and has already sent it back and (much to his relief) had it swapped for a Samsung Nexus... I was hoping he'd give me useful feedback as it'll be a few months before I can upgrade, and he (like me) was formerly a HTC Desire user. He said he sent it back because of poor battery life (I believe a fix is on the way for that) and that it messed up his Google contacts when he tried to sync it.. and it was enough to annoy him sufficiently to want rid of it?!

I'm still very keen on a Lumia however.. think it looks like a great phone and fancy a change from Android!

Weird... how can someone coming from a Desire critticize any phone's battery life ?
That phone was the worst where battery life is concerned (and viewing in sunlight). i've just replaced my desire with a Lumia on monday and I feel like the Lumia 's battery just won't die... Your friend probably got a phone witha defect. And from an Android fan who just converted to WP7 I can tell you that you won't regret it !

Chicane-UK said,
I know someone who rushed and bought one the day it came out - and has already sent it back and (much to his relief) had it swapped for a Samsung Nexus... I was hoping he'd give me useful feedback as it'll be a few months before I can upgrade, and he (like me) was formerly a HTC Desire user. He said he sent it back because of poor battery life (I believe a fix is on the way for that) and that it messed up his Google contacts when he tried to sync it.. and it was enough to annoy him sufficiently to want rid of it?!

I'm still very keen on a Lumia however.. think it looks like a great phone and fancy a change from Android!

Weird... how can someone coming from a Desire critticize any phone's battery life ?
That phone was the worst where battery life is concerned (and viewing in sunlight). i've just replaced my desire with a Lumia on monday and I feel like the Lumia 's battery just won't die... Your friend probably got a phone witha defect. And from an Android fan who just converted to WP7 I can tell you that you won't regret it !

Lol! All Things Digital's quality has gone down incredibly in recent times. Unfortunately, so has Neowin's.

Where did that so-called "analyst" come up with that 500,000 number? There are no numbers, no explanation, no proof, no facts, just pure speculation. Horrible, horrible reporting from All Things D, and equally poor copy-pasting from Neowin.

england_fanboy said,

Where did that so-called "analyst" come up with that 500,000 number?

It's called an estimate. I'd be interested in seeing some actual sales numbers myself though.

england_fanboy said,
Lol! All Things Digital's quality has gone down incredibly in recent times. Unfortunately, so has Neowin's.

Where did that so-called "analyst" come up with that 500,000 number?

Out of the nether regions.

I am buying Lumia as a company (and btw my only phone) this week. To my suprise they were out of the stock in shop I planned to buy from. Waiting time = 3 days.

Nokia has to win back users and Microsoft have to win back users... Half a million is a good start. You don't just push a new product and instantly repair your reputation, if it worked like that there would be a hell of a lot more people using IE9. These things take time, patience, and above all, spending a ton of money!

“We had expected that the company could ship as many as 2 million units into the six targeted markets for the holidays; however, we now believe that those shipments are likely to be less than 1 million for the quarter.”

This are shipments NOT sales.

People need to understand the difference.

day2die said,
“We had expected that the company could ship as many as 2 million units into the six targeted markets for the holidays; however, we now believe that those shipments are likely to be less than 1 million for the quarter.”

This are shipments NOT sales.

People need to understand the difference.


I understand shipments but this is very good for a start for nokia if they can get "2mill Shipped by the end of the year that would be excelet news, WP7 is a great OS and once people see it and feel it they will fall in love with the smoth os ..Shipments eventualy get sold anyway or even given away they don't get shipped back..

day2die said,

This are shipments NOT sales.

Exactly. They could all be sitting in a warehouse for all we know, and never end up getting sold.

Does people even understand what is being said?

shipments = phones that are sent from Nokia to carriers stores/ other stores

In other words, 500,000 Lumia phones will be available for sale.

WhatWarning said,
Shipments != Sale

If they are shipping that much, Nokia doesn't expect that much demand for those phones during that quarter.

Or they had some issues with production... Clearly the demand is there...

Kirkburn said,

Well, it's generally been pretty well received on Neowin.

Not sure Neowin is representative of the rest of the world.

In fact i'm actually sure it is not.

M_Lyons10 said,

Clearly the demand is there...

How did you reach that conclusion? It seems to me the estimates have been cut in reaction to smaller than expected demand. That is to say, the sales channels are already full with devices because no one is buying them

Kirkburn said,

Well, it's generally been pretty well received on Neowin.

That's not what he claimed. He said "Clearly the demand is there". There is no evidence of such "demand" as he puts it.

LaP said,

Not sure Neowin is representative of the rest of the world.

In fact i'm actually sure it is not.

I took it as a joke. I think that's how he meant it. I LOL'd it.

He was implying there isn't demand for it. My response was to point out for it, that there's clearly demand at Neowin.

No, Neowin does not represent the world at large, but it's not *that* insular.

they just like to make analysis all the time... They said 2million at first so later then can make another analysis of less than the earlier predictions...

" until Nokia reveals those figures."

Nokia won't reveal any sale figures as Microsoft (and HTC, Samsung,LG,Dell) didn't reveal any sale numbers in their quarterly reports more than a year after WP7 launch.

alexalex said,
" until Nokia reveals those figures."

Nokia won't reveal any sale figures as Microsoft (and HTC, Samsung,LG,Dell) didn't reveal any sale numbers in their quarterly reports more than a year after WP7 launch.

They will, when they have something to show off!! 2-3 million would be a nice number to boast (if of course they have it)...for a Windows Phone at the moment!!

alexalex said,

Nokia won't reveal any sale figures as Microsoft (and HTC, Samsung,LG,Dell) didn't reveal any sale numbers in their quarterly reports more than a year after WP7 launch.

That's the funny thing. If the WP sales were good, you can bet Microsoft et al would be shouting at the top of their voices about it.

Just ordered mine vodafone let me upgrade a couple of weeks early with a fantastic price plan. Its out of stock however, and they dont know when they will get more in. Hope its soon.
Dont know if thats an indication of low shipping rates because the vodafone guy said its been popular along with the nexus as the two phones people seem to want apparently.