Analyst Michael Pachter: Microsoft will win next-gen console war

Nintendo launched its Wii U game console in November and Sony announced its PlayStation 4 console in February for a launch by the end of 2013, setting the stage for the next-generation console war. That makes Microsoft the only of the three console hardware makers that has not officially announced or launched a next-gen game console.

Despite this lack of information, a well-known industry analyst is already predicting Microsoft's entry will be the winner in the next-gen console war. VG247.com reports that Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities made that rather bold statement at a panel this weekend at a South by Southwest panel in Austin, Texas.

Pachter said he believes that Microsoft will win because of two unannounced features that he believes will be the next console: a TV tuner and support for Skype. Pachter says they will be "killer apps" for the next Xbox. Sony's PlayStation 4 will still do well in the marketplace, according to Pachter, thanks to the console's content and its Gaikai cloud gaming service support.

Nintendo might have a bit of a problem in the next-gen console fight. While Pachter believes the company's games will be solid, he said its hardware "will be challenged." He also said Nintendo's dominance of the handheld gaming market will be hurt by the popularity of gaming on smartphones and tablets.

And what about the PC as a gaming platform? Pachter believes that the PC "as a gaming device will make a comeback." That might be good news to Microsoft, as PC makers try to sell more products with Windows 8.

Source: VG247.com

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Stating that Microsoft's next Xbox gaming console will when against Sony and Nintendo is premature but I guess analysts like being wrong more than anything.

I honestly think people\analysts should just freaking wait until all the cards are on the table before trying to declare a winner.

There is such a rush to generalize something it is silly. We know next to nothing about the next Xbox and we don't even know the pricing for the PS4 looks like at this point.

It's like people are trying to outdue each other in how absurd they are trying to predict thing to soon.

Would it kill people to wait till April when the details of the next Xbox are reveled?

You can't watch TV without a tuner that has CableCard slots nowadays unless the STB came from the cable company. Will Microsoft be including these and bumping up the hardware price? Or is Pachter blowing smoke out of his butt as usual?

So Microsoft will win because they will sell a console with Skype and a TV tuner... Tell me more about people buying a console to play videogames. Almost any Smart TV have Skype. I don't have to say anything about TV tuner, right? If Microsoft relies on that kind of feature to sell consoles, it will lose. Sony already showed that the PS4 is meant to play games. You can use Skype on your TV, smartphone, tablet, PC... Why would you need your console to use Skype? You can't say who will win when someone didn't even showed up to the game.

So to all the Sony fanboys strutting around the internet right now let me ask WHEN was the last time the most powerful hardware was the dominant console in any given generation?

Answer: it never has been

It is pretty funny how after 6 years of beat down the Sony fanboys get all cocky and loud mouthed again after even a hint of good news for them.

It's like they never learn, this all sounds like 2006 all over again for them. The PS3 was supposed to be this hardware monster that would put the 360 to shame and beat everyone left and right and continue Sony's dominance. It didn't work out that well for Sony, and the Sony fans haven't seemed to learn anything from that.

It really doesn't matter who wins the war anyway. People will buy what they know and love - having one feature over another isn't a sure fire way of selling more units.
It comes down to what games people like to play. For example if God of War was available for both consoles, or even Halo, then it would just be preference to what machine looks more pleasing in their loungerooms or bedrooms... Plain and simple.

This whole console war will be determined WHEN A DAMN REVIEW IS DONE, not by stupid rumor of features coming that haven't even been approved yet, Get real Micheal!

If they do want it to be used as a DVR then they need to make it quieter! My 360 is LOUD. I've tried to watch movies (and TV etc) on it, but I have to turn the volume way up just to drown out the fans...

droolingmonkey said,
If they do want it to be used as a DVR then they need to make it quieter! My 360 is LOUD. I've tried to watch movies (and TV etc) on it, but I have to turn the volume way up just to drown out the fans...

It should be but at the same time there is a rumor of two Xbox models on the way and that the one that could be used as a set top box and sold through cable companies will be smaller and no the full gaming system you'll be able to buy in a store.

Just rumors but we'll know soon enough.

I believe Microsoft will win not for those reasons obviously. Sony showed some games, but the reveal wasn't that innovative and innovation is the real deal here.

We have a world filled with Tablets and phones with iOS and Android as well as the Wii and it has changed the landscape of home video game consoles. Sony didn't show anything other than just appealing to the hardcore, which is nice but they didn't offer anything that couldn't be done with any other next generation video game system.

For example, Killzone looked great in the air, but when you were on the ground it looked like any other 360 or PS3 shooter. There wasn't anything innovative to really be a game changer. Sure they showed Gakai, but that is simple just streaming video games and it by itself is something new for consoles, but it's not innovative enough to go beyond just hardcore players.

There is nothing that is a game changer when it comes to being unique to anyone else and Sony looked more like a follower in the space than a leader. For that reason alone I just don't feel that their PS4 will go beyond any core. The games are the same from the previous PS3/360, just with slightly better graphics and the gameplay is the same, which is getting old.

Gaming itself has to evolve, it can't stay the old static environments with the same old gameplay, it has to evolve.

I have been playing video games since Atari Pong in 1975 and gaming has evolved but it's not really going forward from the PS3/360 days (except a slight bump in graphics).

Microsoft is really our last hope at change. We see what Nintendo has to offer, we see that Sony is offering more of the same. Microsoft is the only one left with at least some innovation in the space and I really don't care with the core have to say because they want the same games over and over and over again, and maybe that works for them, but there are millions of people like me that don't want more of the same, but are crying out for something different.

Stupid pointless payed by Microsoft story. I seriously don't think Nintendo cares and never has cared who wins it's not a who wins competition . Does and will Nintendo and Sony have fun games . YES . These stories are stupid they can't win if all the new consoles red ring lmao .

Considering that MS was considered an "also ran" when entering the PS3/Xbox 360/Wii race and that the PS3 was predicted to sell double or even triple the number of consoles based on the previous generation's performance, I'd say MS did win especially when they have outsold the PS3 in the US for the last 2 years.

ahoncbt said,
just like how ps3 outsold xbox even after releasing a year late.

they haven't outsold them ,and ps3 has 10 million on xbox in japan. the Japanese will buy a turd if its made by sony or nintendo,and the fact that sony makes special content for that region and has a special relationship with the Japanese content providers and the Japanese consumers.

what really matters anyways is software. xbox360 downright destroys ps3 in software sales,and xbox live makes them billions. how pretty is a ps3 for sony if its just sitting on the tv shelf not being used for anything?

Drewidian said,
Considering that MS was considered an "also ran" when entering the PS3/Xbox 360/Wii race and that the PS3 was predicted to sell double or even triple the number of consoles based on the previous generation's performance, I'd say MS did win especially when they have outsold the PS3 in the US for the last 2 years.

There's more then just the US. Just 350million people even Europe is quite a bit larger then that.
And then there's asia with 1/3rd of the world population.
Eastern EU is rising and becoming a large market. So is China and India.
The EU and Asian markets is what Sony is focusing on and it shows in their collection of games
It wasn't until MS saw how popular some games where that they dragged em to the Xbox platform (GTA, Tekken, DoA). I'm sure they'd be dying to get GT6 on the nextbox but at least that aint going to happen.
MS does attempt to gain EU and Asian audiences but its not working. And so far Sony is outselling MS in the EU and by large amounts in Asia.
I'm sticking with Sony especially since MS services are half assed anywhere but the US.

vcfan said,

they haven't outsold them ,and ps3 has 10 million on xbox in japan. the Japanese will buy a turd if its made by sony or nintendo,and the fact that sony makes special content for that region and has a special relationship with the Japanese content providers and the Japanese consumers.

what really matters anyways is software. xbox360 downright destroys ps3 in software sales,and xbox live makes them billions. how pretty is a ps3 for sony if its just sitting on the tv shelf not being used for anything?

North America is the only region which the 360 outsold the PS3. Are you calling Europe, Japan, Middle East, Africa, and Oceania regions turds?

vcfan said,

they haven't outsold them ,and ps3 has 10 million on xbox in japan. the Japanese will buy a turd if its made by sony or nintendo,and the fact that sony makes special content for that region and has a special relationship with the Japanese content providers and the Japanese consumers.

what really matters anyways is software. xbox360 downright destroys ps3 in software sales,and xbox live makes them billions. how pretty is a ps3 for sony if its just sitting on the tv shelf not being used for anything?

http://www.neowin.net/news/idc...wide-game-console-shipments

And that IDC prediction report was proven wrong in both companies' last quarterly financial reports (like I predicted it would in that story). The Xbox 360 still commands a 1.5 million unit lead and a software lead of over 100 million units. The PS3 will end this gen in last place when the next one starts this year.

Edited by Thief000, Mar 11 2013, 9:04am :

Thief000 said,

And that IDC prediction report was proven wrong in both companies' last quarterly financial reports (like I predicted it would in that story). The Xbox 360 still commands a 1.5 million unit lead and a software lead of over 100 million units. The PS3 will end this gen in last place when the next one starts this year.

Everyone wants to talk about units sold but the software lead is the big key, anyone who knows anything about consoles should know the big money comes from the sale of games and other content. Even if the ps3 edges out ahead in the hardware race by the time the new systems are out with the large gap in software sales who do you think made more money in the end?

Whatever the case it doesn't matter unless you're a crazy fanboy of one or the other, the truth is nothing ran away with the market like Sony did back with the PS2.

Hahahaa. I feel ya, but if anything this tells me that they'll draw on games and gaming features and these will be the things that makes someone choose one over the other.

Alladaskill17 said,
Great, the 2 "killer apps" to win the war for microsoft in the gaming console war ARE NOT EVEN GAMES.

Gaming consoles haven't been just about games ever since the original PlayStation could play CDs and the PS2 could play DVDs, plus the success of the PS3 as a Bluray and Netflix player. You need to stop thinking that any attempt to broaden the market for someone wanting a console means you get less games. They two aren't related (Microsoft doesn't make most of the games, duh).

the number may be low, but the impact of the TV Tuner could be huge. It's not the same as 2 AAA games. Depending on what it is, how it's implemented and marketed, something of that nature could have a huge impact and sell consoles to those who may otherwise not purchase one or upgrade. I'm not saying I agree with him. But the nature of these types of "killer apps" do not need to be games to have a HUGE impact.

It won't have a TV tuner, there are that many different TV standards in the different territories they would have to manufacture a dozen different models with different TV tuners and that would be expensive.

Not sure I follow you, ATSC, QAM, NTSC. Not sure much else is needed as far as TV. It's hard to say what he means by TV tuner though.

If it's a DVR with either of those and works with cable or uverse, who knows ...

MorganX said,
Not sure I follow you, ATSC, QAM, NTSC. Not sure much else is needed as far as TV. It's hard to say what he means by TV tuner though.

If it's a DVR with either of those and works with cable or uverse, who knows ...

not just NTSC, PAL, ATSC and QAM... there is also Encrypted QAM to worry about which virtually all cable providers in the USA use now to prevent cable theft... which then would require a cablecard slot and CableLabs certification.....

MorganX said,
Not sure I follow you, ATSC, QAM, NTSC. Not sure much else is needed as far as TV. It's hard to say what he means by TV tuner though.

If it's a DVR with either of those and works with cable or uverse, who knows ...


Um, there are countries outside of the US you know, UK uses DVB-S/S2, DVB-T/T2, DVB-C

A TV tuner, like DVB-T?
Why on earth will a TV tuner be important to anyone?
Everyone has TV's with TV tuners, why would anyone want one in their XBox?

I think most TV broadcasters would be telling you that the legacy use of fixed broadcasts is dying a rapid death. It is all about streaming on demand, which the PS3 and XBox 360 has done perfectly for years.

Most likely it will be through a cable subscription service. MS wants mass distribution of the Next XBox to with the next battle for the living room. To do this, I think they are willing to partner with the cable companies to stream live content to the XBox and since they've piloted a subscription service for XBox with a live gold account, I could easily see the cable companies charging $99 for the box on a 2 year contract with a free Gold account. Given their partnership past with the cable companies, I think live streaming content and the ability to record via a subscription is more likely than over the air broadcast capturing.

bits said,
A TV tuner, like DVB-T?
Why on earth will a TV tuner be important to anyone?
Everyone has TV's with TV tuners, why would anyone want one in their XBox?

DVRs are very popular... adding a TV tuner to the Xbox would just extend the Media Center capabilities... so that you don't have to stream your content from a Media Center PC. Instead they would make your Xbox a Media Center PC.

Why wouldn't you want to connect your cable tv to your Xbox to make it an awesome DVR? It sure beats renting a DVR from your cable company.

this was from more than a year ago

Microsoft was thinking about launching a paid TV subscription service through Xbox Live, but has drawn back after seeing how expensive it would be to license content.

Reuters reports that Microsoft was holding talks with media executives for more than a year about the service, but when they saw the rates for licensing popular shows, they realized it would be way too expensive for the service they envisioned.

Read more: http://articles.businessinside...ox-live-cable#ixzz2NBtMWqNR

I don't think they abandoned this idea. If they make it happen,this would be the most epic tv box.

I hope they haven't abandoned it as well. It's about time someone increased the competition. The only hard thing will be getting content from networks that are owned by the cable companies (NBC-Comcast, CW-Time Warner, etc.).

My prediction is still that whichever console is the easiest to modify and make backups on will win the war, with the exception of Nintendo, which is relegated as more of a niche product.

I personally believe that the primary way MS will win is if they do what I suspect will be the rumored DVR functionality. MS has built a relationships with a number of the cable companies and I suspect that they are planning to offer not only Live TV functionality, but have the cable companies themselves sell the next xBox as a DVR option. If this is the case and you can add external hard drives, it would effectively win the next generation since most people who like or want DVRs, would take one over the crappy options that are provided now. The cable companies would love this since they could have a device that they wouldn't have to support much other than keeping stock and providing connectivity. If it breaks, they give you a replacement and send the broken one to MS to fix. Comcast, Dish network, AT&T, and Verizon all would love to add the xBox under belts as an option as well as the advertising point. There's plenty of hints that this is coming, but we'll only know more at their unveiling next month and E3, but my money is on MS for the next round of consoles, since Sony hasn't unveiled any real killer features, but time will tell.

Already there is a lot of frustration that one needs to pay for XBOX Gold for watching Netflix. When the realization sets in that the next XBOX will need you to pay to both Comcast and Microsoft to watch TV, the backlash will start.

Not a fan of that idea. Our family does use Comcast already, but I prefer the cable companies to not leverage any more power on stuff than they already do. After all, they're the main reason why CableCARD hasn't taken off on HTPC's, which is why Windows Media Center isn't doing so well.

I'd much prefer Xbox to give that as an option than anything, but I'd like to see Microsoft to further develop their own in-house offering of TV shows and movies that can be attached to an account and viewed across Microsoft's ecosystem (PC, Xbox, Windows Phone, etc.).

They need to drop the many restrictions of Xbox Live Gold. If they remain the same I am getting myself a Playstation instead. Paying for Xbox Live just to use Netflix is ridiculous.

what profession? guessing? these anal-yst getting a million things wrong and when they get one right they are heralded like conquering heroes. I predict that there will be a windows 9 and possible a windows 10.

So he is proclaiming the unannounced "Xbox Next" will win the console war based on rumoured specs/features? Man, I'm in the wrong profession! I should be an analyst and be paid to make stuff up...