Analyst: PC hard drive units won't recover fully until 2013

The Thailand floods that have greatly affected the manufacturers of PC hard drives this year will finally start their recovery in early 2012, but it's going to be a long time before hard drive supplies come back to the level that they were available before the floods in Thailand knocked out a number of manufacturing plants.

That's the verdict from research firm IDC, according to a new story at Computerworld.com. According to the firm's analyst John Rydning, "I think the most painful period will occur now through February of next year. We expect the situation will improve, but it won't feel as if things are back to normal until 2013."

How bad is the current hard drive shortage? In an email sent by PC maker Lenovo to corporate IT customers, the company compared the current situation to what banks had to deal with in the Great Depression. Lenovo stated, "Akin to the hysteria when banks defaulted in the 1930[s], PC orders across the industry are being placed for which HD supply does not exist." Lenovo also said in the email that it is currently out of stock of several hard drives for its ThinkPad notebooks.

Hard drive prices have risen by as much as 100 percent or more since the shortage issues began. While there are some indications that the price increases have peaked for some hard drives its clear that they will continue to be higher than normal for a while.

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I don't know if it's considered bad form to link to a post of my own here, but I call their bluff on this. You can check out my analysis/rant (with evidence) at my Google+ post here:
https://plus.google.com/114224...218253872/posts/RjdPbxjNdnG

Or just have a glance at my evidence, this oh-so-amazing deal on a hard drive--and be sure you read the specs very carefully:
http://www.newegg.com/Product/...t.aspx?Item=N82E16822136096

Basically, they're milking it for all its worth, and they're barely able to hide it. As long as the common customer remains unaware, they'll ramp up the prices as much as they like.

More gouging. All this is nothing more than lies. Ya sure there was some impact, but these companies are exaggerating this so that they can rake in the profits from people too stupid to wait until prices return to normal. Just like the oil companies, whatever excuse they can come up with, they will try as long as the public accepts it.

We in neighbouring country, Malaysia didn't have any problem because we do have our own factories producing HDD, so we're not so screwed eh?

FarCry3r said,
We in neighbouring country, Malaysia didn't have any problem because we do have our own factories producing HDD, so we're not so screwed eh?

We're also screwed. HDD price increased more than 100%..

It's amazing that we depend so much on one country. I hope it won't take them long to recover, because these exports must be really important to their economy.

Because of the price jump of sata driver I bought a SDD and will never look back! The difference in speed is unbelievable.

They need to get tech. manufacturing out of Asia PERIOD! First Japan now Thailand. They need to move manufacturing to less natural-disaster-prone nations because having everything concentrated is a disaster in itself. Since the world is so dependent on technology, we cannot afford to have these periods of interruptions followed by a long period of price hikes.

vladmphoto said,
They need to get tech. manufacturing out of Asia PERIOD! First Japan now Thailand. They need to move manufacturing to less natural-disaster-prone nations because having everything concentrated is a disaster in itself. Since the world is so dependent on technology, we cannot afford to have these periods of interruptions followed by a long period of price hikes.

yea bring them to middle-east
less prone to disaster and well it is in the middle of the world

ShiZZa said,
**** i remember paying $500+ for a 320mb.

damn, that's got to be back in the day as the first HDD i paid big money for was a 80GB for around $300 which i think was back around the year 2000-ish. that hard drive is in my XBox1 console and has been since i first moded it back in Aug 2004.

Yep. prices are sky high right now.

my Samsung 2TB that was floating in $80 range most of the time is now literally $199 + 7 ship. that's 2.5times+ the price!

p.s. i won't be buying any hard drives anytime soon as $200 for a hard drive is not reasonable. they should be $150 MAX for a 2TB.

Damn it! And I that thought that I was getting a 3 TB hard drive at decent price next year. Since it's mandatory an upgrade, I should be preparing my budget

Hopefully there's a silver lining to this and the demand for SSDs goes up, speeding up the replacement process for HDDs. Even a year earlier would be awesome.

HeadsUp said,
Hopefully there's a silver lining to this and the demand for SSDs goes up, speeding up the replacement process for HDDs. Even a year earlier would be awesome.

i can't see that happening as SSD just ain't got the storage space needs that regular HDD's offer.

HeadsUp said,
Hopefully there's a silver lining to this and the demand for SSDs goes up, speeding up the replacement process for HDDs. Even a year earlier would be awesome.

I think it has to have an effect, as prices for disk drives goes up it will push more people that were on the fence to go with SSD (yes I know storage levels are not the same, but in talking about people that were already thinking about going with an SSD but were put off by price alone). This means SSD shipments will logically increase, all through 2012 and that will effect the speed at which prices continue to drop. Now this doesn't mean the manufacturers will drop prices soon, as they are currently losing money from the disk based drives, but production will increase and their costs for SSD production will drop, meaning overall, in time, we'll see the reductions quicker than we would have were it not for this current situation

thankfully in the wake of this, SSD prices are going down, I mean a 128GB SSD on newegg for $119 is an awesome deal

Xerino said,
thankfully in the wake of this, SSD prices are going down, I mean a 128GB SSD on newegg for $119 is an awesome deal

Proof, or I don't believe

This is BS... HD prices the way they are is just nuts considering it really only effected WD..the rest are just rolling in the profit for no reason.

sava700 said,
This is BS... HD prices the way they are is just nuts considering it really only effected WD..the rest are just rolling in the profit for no reason.

Factories that make hard drive parts were also affected.

sava700 said,
This is BS... HD prices the way they are is just nuts considering it really only effected WD..the rest are just rolling in the
profit for no reason.

the issue is quite a few drive makers got most of their drive heads from thiland.

sava700 said,
This is BS... HD prices the way they are is just nuts considering it really only effected WD..the rest are just rolling in the profit for no reason.

i think most of the internal parts they all use are made in Thailand, which is why prices went up for all makers.

Gabe3 said,

i think most of the internal parts they all use are made in Thailand, which is why prices went up for all
makers.

hell even if the ****ers were made in america they would be cheaper than they are now.

sava700 said,
This is BS... HD prices the way they are is just nuts considering it really only effected WD..the rest are just rolling in the profit for no reason.

This affected much more than WD...

so the imagined 'shortage' that was announced a few weeks ago, to not be as bad as thought, is expected to last past holiday time, and into the first quarter where folks will be getting taxes, bonuses, holiday pay, and will be looking to upgrade their PCs when all the new fangled PC hardware is launched by their respective companies...

sounds about right.

Non-Active-Account said,
Hopefully SSD's will drop to 50 cents a gig soon because of this.

Because demand for SSD means prices going down?
In the long term maybe, but not immediately. If it's going to have an effect on SSDs, it will actually increase their price.