Analyst says Windows 8 expectations have 'plummet[ed]'

An analyst with Topeka Capital has said his Windows 8 expectations have "plummet[ed]" after visiting some supply chain partners for Windows OEMs.

Brian White said that while traveling Europe, he saw supply chains that were "experiencing little life ahead of the October 26 launch." Those same supply chain members said they were expecting idle factories in December, when production should still be going on following a holiday surge. White said those same supply chain partners told him things likely wouldn't pick up until the second half of 2013.

In addition to the Windows 8 pessimism, White claims supply chain partners were equally bearish, saying Intel's requirements for the small laptops have driven up hardware and manufacturing costs associated with the devices.

White's full statement is as follows:

Windows 8 Expectations Plummet and PC Trends to Remain Difficult. The sentiment around Windows 8 was overwhelmingly negative during our trip as the supply chain is experiencing little life ahead of the October 26 launch. Although October is expected to be the sweet spot for the notebook ramp for Windows 8, and further follow through is likely in November, we were warned of idle facilities in December. One of our contacts does not expect Windows 8 to be material until the second-half of 2013. Similarly, the enthusiasm around the Ultrabook ramp has also deteriorated as the cost structure remains too high under Intel's (INTC-$21.48: NR) specifications. Given these disappointments, we believe the PC industry is headed for a muted December quarter and well below the ramp expected with new products. In our coverage universe, Dell (DELL-$9.69: Buy) has the most exposure to the PC market at 50% of sales, followed by Hewlett-Packard (HPQ-$14.41: Hold) at 29%.

Recently, another analyst shared concerns about Windows 8 and Windows RT tablets, saying they were priced "way too high." More analysts should be giving their opinions on Microsoft's fortunes this week, given the upcoming launch of Windows 8.

Source: Business Insider | Image via Microsoft

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I work in retail and technical circles.. there is not a single person I know or have met who finds Windows 8 appealing .... quite the contrary

Cyborg_X said,
I speculate that no one will ever buy a computer ever again.


Where do I pick up my check?

Okay, good first try but you need some work. First, your content is great! However, if you want anyone to take you seriously you also need about 500 words of fluff, something to quote and a picture that may or may not have anything to do with what you are saying. Then you can pick up your check.

I think I'll put on my "analyst" hat when I got to Best Buy, and ask one of those Geek Squad kiddies what the opinion has been with other customers playing with the Win8 display devices.

interesting yet, these tablets are priced at the same price as an equivalent ipad 64gb. I'm not sure what these guys are thinking but 199 dollar ivy bridge tablets that last 10hrs and run any x86 app isn't going to happen overnight.

It is time for OEMs to start making better products at better prices. How is possible that the snobbish Apple iPad and MacBook Air are of much better quality build and design that similarly priced Wintel OEM products? Apple's profit margin is 30% after tax, while most hardware companies get single digit profits. That means that Apple products are overpriced or they managed to reduce production costs. OEMs have been lazy, delivering cheap plastic, ugly, and even vulgar computer designs for years to us that wish to use Windows or Linux. Their poor designs contributed to the overall disenchantment of the consumer towards anything but Apple. I don't think I'm asking for a lot, just some amount of taste and attention to detail, like stop using these ugly latches in laptops and use magnets or some other mechanism. Isn't a magnet latch cheaper to make and it doesn't break like the mechanical latches, and it allows a smooth surface without those ugly pointy latches on your screen? Here's another idea: can we do something more elegant with the fan vents? Can we have the bottom of a laptop smooth and devoid of dozens of holes, mechanical parts, printed text, stickers, uneven surfaces, and other indicatives that the manufacturer doesn't give a **** how the bottom of a laptop looks like? Will the design of a smooth bottom be a huge challenge that will increase their cost, or is it just laziness and poor taste? So, stop complaining or blaming Microsoft. Microsoft gave you the OS used in 91% of consumer computers, and now it runs in tablets and ARM devices, so stop wasting your time filling the machines with useless bloatware and concentrate in hardware design, quality and features.

I honestly think it has less to do with design, than how much easier it is for the average joe (some people on this forum refer to them as idiots, but I don't agree) to get in to trouble with Windows PC's.

I see first hand a computer that came with a signature clean installation of Windows, 6 months later often still has a clean looking interface. A computer that came with a bunch of crap pre-loaded onto it, has even more crap on it 6 months later, and 3 inches worth of toolbars at the top of the browser Window.

Consumers are NOT tech saavy. You can't get into trouble with an Ipad or an Iphone, if you do, you turn it off and turn it back on. Same with Winphone, and soon to be the same with WinRT.

I think for the market that is so popular with the Apple "devices" (not Mac OS) that Microsoft is heading in the right direction. Then theres that whole desktop segment that may not do so well. That's unfortunately another story that time will tell.

I agree with the original article, think Windows 8 is gonna be a slug when it comes to sales and acceptance except with all the fanboys. Trouble is, they don't make up the majority of users.

The only thing I'm buying this fall will be a Surface, and a Win8 phone. I will be buying the Surface for the purpose of reviewing it to see if it will be a useful device for my Mom, and for myself to carry around while on the go. I already have a Vizio running Windows 8 and Office 2013, and it is an awesome device that I can highly recommend. I would actually like it better if it had a touch screen.

I think it would be fair for each and every analyst recommendation to come with that analysts previous track record for recommendations. He could be right, but he could be wrong. He's just trying to make recommendations for how people should place their "bets".

I'm trying really hard to like tablets. In fact, it's not for a lack of trying. I have..

HP touch pad (mom uses it)
iPad 2
Acer W500 windows tablet with windows 8
Nexus 7

I guess the idea of a tablet sounds good, but I'm REALLY trying to like them, but unless i'm reading email or browsing facebook they are all quite worthless. Even the web browsing isn't great. The Acer tablet does let you dock with a keyboard. So that helps. When ever I try to look something up on a tablet I start to get very angry, because it's so frustrating. Just give me a laptop or even better a external monitor and a mouse and keyboard. At the moment Tablets are a fad. Not good for much.

Just last night I ran into another windows 8 annoyance. I was going to run patchmypc on my windows 8 tablet and it said I didn't have dotnet 2.0 or 3.5 and wondered if I wanted to download it. WTF!!! ..so after about 10 mins it was done. This was never an issue on windows 7 it just worked

warwagon said,
IJust last night I ran into another windows 8 annoyance. I was going to run patchmypc on my windows 8 tablet and it said I didn't have dotnet 2.0 or 3.5 and wondered if I wanted to download it. WTF!!! ..so after about 10 mins it was done. This was never an issue on windows 7 it just worked

Yeah, that's windows 8's fault, not the application setting target runtime to any.

But you can't deny they are correct is stating the "prices are way to high".
I'm ready to buy now but won't until they come down so they'll be missing my dosh.
there are plenty of us users saying the same thing so this time the analysts may very well be correct.

Well, truth be told prices (of announced devices) are too high for an ecosystem that is in its infancy. Like it or not ipad is still the paradigm price-wise.

The one complaint from OEMs and manufacturers I keep hearing is that things are now too expensive and they can't make as much money. Well, good! I think this is a sign that they're being forced to improve the quality of their products and that they can no longer sell rubbish with a higher than justified markup. They're the ones who make and design the friggin' products. They're in control of their own destiny. So stop crying and make something people want to buy. Problem solved.

And you can't blame everything on Windows 8. Their's nothing stopping them from offering systems with Windows 7. You can't tell me that factories are suddenly going to be sitting idle because Microsoft releases an updated operating system designed almost exclusively to gain entrance to a new market segment with new form factors.

Edited by BattleDaggit, Oct 15 2012, 1:59pm :

Drewidian said,
I stopped at "Analyst".

^ this
what ticks me off is that these guys make a zillion "pre- 'dick' tions" and if they get .00000000001% right then they are heralded. I read than an 'anal-lust' said that there will be an Iphone 6 and 7 at some point in time.

Drewidian said,
I stopped at "Analyst".

I stopped at at least 2 months ago. Microsoft should have launched this long ago.
If this is a consumer OS as it intents to be and if they want to be like Apple, then they should have launched it IMMEDIATELY in online channels.