Analyst: Windows 8 to be in third place in tablet market

Windows 8's new Metro-style touch-screen interface is supposed to be designed for, among other things, the growing tablet PC market. But according to the analyst firm Gartner, Microsoft will have a hard time trying to beat Apple's iPad and the various tablets based on Google's Android operating system. Carolina Milanesi, the research vice president at Gartner, states, "We expect Apple to maintain a market share lead throughout our forecast period by commanding more than 50 percent of the market until 2014."

As far as Windows 8, Milanesi says, "The current buzz around Windows 8 driven by the demonstrations seen at the BUILD conference might be short-lived if Microsoft’s push to use the new OS across devices comes at a compromise in usability. Moreover, the late arrival might limit its appeal, especially to consumers, as Apple and Android will be more entrenched by then."

As far as sales of tablets in 2011, Gartner predicts that there will be a worldwide total of 63.6 million tablets sold by the end of the year, a huge 261.4 percent increase from tablet sales in 2010. Apple's iPad will have a commanding 73.4 percent of worldwide tablet sales in 2011, according to the report. Sales of Android-based tablets such as Samsung's Galaxy Tab and Motorola's Xoom will take up 17.3 percent of total tablet sales. In a chart predicting sales of tablets in 2015, Gartner believes that the iPad will sell 148 million units and Android based tablets will sell 116 million units. Microsoft's operating system will be a distant third in this prediction with just 34 million tablet sales in 2015.

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TsarNiklky - that comment made just as much sense as the editorial post that kicked off this thread. The OP makes the following two assumptions:

1. Tablets and slates will remain underpowered compared to portables with a traditional formfactor (notebooks and netbooks) meaning no crossover.

2. Windows 8 on ARM will fail, despite a greater number of applications compared to iOS and even Android, for unspecified/unknown reasons (greatest suspect - lack of *coolness*).

You make the assumption that traditional Windows desktop users are married to the Start menu - that makes as much sense as assuming that all users of openSuSE choose distribution's default desktop environment (specifically, KDE). Have you considered that it's not that Windows users necessarily *like* the Start menu - instead, we hate alternatives to it that feel half-baked. Other than the Start menu, what's really missing, even for traditional (keyboard and mouse) users? Speaking a traditional (keyboard and mouse) desktop (not tablet, slate or notebook) PC user, I am finding that I don't really miss the Start menu - and Windows 9x, then 2000 and later, complete with Start menu, has been my default operating system since Windows 95 hit RC1 (I came into the beta in October 1994). Seventeen *years* of the Start menu - and I'm discovering how little I actually need it. From not having it, and listening to the incessant clamor to retain it, it still comes down to familiarity and comfort - the *comfortable pair of shoes*. The desktop is still there. The classic applets (and Control Panel) are still there. All the "Windows key" shortcuts are still there. Can you even explain *why* the Start menu is so necessary, even for a desktop computer user?

Unless Windows-8 gets serious for PC users, not tablet users (meaning a traditional desktop idiom for mouse and keyboard), Windows-8 will probably end up being be a marginal operating system. It may, someday, become big for tablets; but, will not capture the serious PC user marketplaces--either business or personal.

Really? For how long. That long? Let me ask. How long does it take for a factory to ramp up and product 5 million tablets? Maybe a year? And we are talking about Windows, right?

Price isnt the issue and some think, it capability for the cost. So lets see. For Windows 8 there will be 2 types of tablets. Some based on ARM and some based on x86. The x86 version will offer the new Metro UI on top of the standard Windows desktop we all have come to love. Now. That means these will be Group Policy enabled which means they will be enterrprise worthy.

So lets see, how many enterprises use Windows? So if they alone just roll out 50% usage, that is enough to secure 2nd place. Then when you add 50% of the consumer usage, that's first place.

What you didnt take into consideration is this. Once Windows 8 tablets start shipping, less people will buy both Android and iPad tablets. ARM tablets will likely meet the same price points as iPad at $499. However, MS could request pricing to start at $399 for the very low end and $499 for a mid range and $699 for a top 3G/LTE model. With Premium models like x86 to start at $800. Basically a full portable PC.

The Samsung device demoed using 8 weighted 2lbs, and ran Windows perfectly with no lag. Metro or desktop usage didnt matter. Instead of buyign one trick ponies like iPad which is nothing more than an iPod Touch with a 10" screen, or a G-Tab; they will likely invest in x86 versions the most as they will give users 100% Windows capabilities like 100% web support for Flash, Java, Silverlight and more. I am sure they will sport HDMI and USB 2.0 at the least, thus giving use compatibility with ANY keyboard, mouse, external storage and more.

No one is going to want the kiddie toys tablets accept kids. These x86 tablets will be able to play online games like WOW and more. No more playing those reskinned kiddie games from the 80's. For those who love Facebook games they will have 100% compatibility on the go.

Then you have to look at this. How many PC makers are their? Combined they all sell over 280M PC's per year. If the top 5 PC makers all make and sell over 5M tablets together in just 1 year and then double up every year after that, these new tablets will likely be top dog before 2015. I expect less people will buy toy tablets for the real thing.

there are how many millions tablets sold thus far? not that much. a tablet can be sold to everyone. windows 8 is going to dominate desktop category and that could be a big sell point. it is for me. device integration can be great if done properly. win8 laptop + wp + win8 tablet sounds good.

Well no it's desktop Windows! Nothing can compete with it. Won't be a matter of time before it dominates the tablet scene.

I see windows 8 tablets at the number one spot in 30 days after launch. Might not even take that long. Most of the people I know that run windows plan to get a windows 8 tablet including myself soon after launch.

Windows 8 Tablets if priced right will definitely be better than Android and iPads in functionality and their compatibility with Windows PCs. Now forgive me if this isn't right because I haven't really read up much on Windows 8 but Microsoft's tablets will most likely be able to do a lot more than Androids or iPads and will probably go hand-in-hand within Windows based PCs especially Windows 8 based.

I for one have been waiting for windows tablets, as I would rather have a full windows OS than a proprietary OS like iOS and Android.

SfIsHeR1701 said,
I for one have been waiting for windows tablets, as I would rather have a full windows OS than a proprietary OS like iOS and Android.

Believe it or not many people, me included, have been using Tablets running Windows OS since 2002.
Granted at the beginning the experience was, sometimes, a rough one but right now W7 is an excellent Tablet OS; and yes it does allow a "Touch" interaction too.
Personally I am not so crazy about this "Touch" frenziness: it is interesting, it is a novelty but ...... a portable device must have a limited size screen in order to be a portable device and I have a hard time imagining myself using a touch screen to interact with Excel or even Outlook

The current buzz around Windows 8 driven by the demonstrations seen at the BUILD conference might be short-lived if Microsoft's push to use the new OS across devices comes at a compromise in usability.

Or it might not, if it doesn't!

Thanks, analyst guy.

I can't honestly see how Android us going to end up ahead of Windows 8 - maybe the analysts feel burnt by their WP7 predictions and now just assume the worst

Considering the modern tablet market is still in it's infancy, and Android tablets aren't exactly selling like hot cakes, Microsoft have a perfectly good chance to go in and destroy everyone. As long as their hardware partners are upto the job.

~Johnny said,
I can't honestly see how Android us going to end up ahead of Windows 8 - maybe the analysts feel burnt by their WP7 predictions and now just assume the worst

Considering the modern tablet market is still in it's infancy, and Android tablets aren't exactly selling like hot cakes, Microsoft have a perfectly good chance to go in and destroy everyone. As long as their hardware partners are upto the job.

I would compare W8 with Android 4 or even 5 not with what is offered right now.
And even doing so it is a very empiric prediction: W8 is a developer preview and many things could change in one year.
Personally I like W8 very much although I hope to see several changes before RTM.

Where I work we are in the midst of a large Windows 7 deployment right now. I do not expect we'll ever make the jump to Windows 8 on our laptops or desktops as a primary OS. However, I can see where we may have Windows 8 in the company for tablets and developers whose applications are customer/external orientated. Having an OS that blends the lines like this could be an amazing opportunity.

On my personal devices, I'll jump to Windows 8. Especially on my Acer W500 tablet, which may receive the beta and RC builds.

I think Microsoft have the advantage in the tablet war: they're using an OS built for big screens, not small ones and scaled up.

[quote=Meph said,]
Microsoft ever so silent on what Windows-8 will offer the millions of people who use mice and keyboards. Touchy-feely can go only so far.

MS will have no problem with windows 8. It will be on PCs, slates, tablets, touch screens, media centers and tons of other devices.

Hello Everyone,
I'm an analyst. The IT guy at our company installed me Windows 8 developers preview.
I can tell you a lot of things from this preview.
Microsoft will exactly sell 34 million slates in 2015.
My wife is cooking macaroni for dinner.
I'm going to die in August 2031.
And this silly report will NOT be reported across the blogosphere.
Good bye.

FMH said,
Hello Everyone,
I'm an analyst. The IT guy at our company installed me Windows 8 developers preview.
I can tell you a lot of things from this preview.
Microsoft will exactly sell 34 million slates in 2015.
My wife is cooking macaroni for dinner.
I'm going to die in August 2031.
And this silly report will NOT be reported across the blogosphere.
Good bye.
What time is dinner? I love me some macaroni and cheese.

zeke009 said,
What time is dinner? I love me some macaroni and cheese.
I'm so sorry. I went home and there was no macaroni, and neither was my wife.
I'm not so sure about my report any more.....

zeke009 said,
What time is dinner? I love me some macaroni and cheese.
I'm so sorry. I went home and there was no macaroni, and neither was my wife.
I'm not so sure about my report any more.....

"The current buzz around Windows 8 driven by the demonstrations seen at the BUILD conference might be short-lived if Microsoft's push to use the new OS across devices comes at a compromise in usability."

Uh, if there's a compromise in usability it's on the keyboard+mouse-support side, NOT on the touch-side.

Yeah but, no but, yeah but, no but...Windows 8 tablets will work in every situation. Put your tablet on your desk...whamo, it is a desktop (with keyboard and mouse hookup). Then take it with you where ever you go as a tablet. Now, use iPads to replace your desktop...

In other late breaking news, the sun is hot, and water is wet.

Useless article. Of course they will be in third place. The question is, for how long. I've always disliked Gartner... claiming they can predict the sales of hardware 4 years down the line that doesn't even exist yet is just ludicrous.

I dont want to sound like a fanboy but I think Win8 tablets have a chance to become no.1 tablets.
The samsung tablets they gave away at the build conference is the first tablet that I thought to my self, I want it. This is what tablet is all about atleast for me. Plug in 2 monitors, keyboard , mouse and everything you have and use it as a workstation pc. When you are done plug it out and take it with you wherever you go.

random_ said,
I dont want to sound like a fanboy but I think Win8 tablets have a chance to become no.1 tablets.
The samsung tablets they gave away at the build conference is the first tablet that I thought to my self, I want it. This is what tablet is all about atleast for me. Plug in 2 monitors, keyboard , mouse and everything you have and use it as a workstation pc. When you are done plug it out and take it with you wherever you go.

Personal needs and preferences widely differ.
Said that in my personal experience, and I have been using a convertible Tablet since 2002, these devices are a perfect replacement for a laptop not for a desktop.
I do not see a Tablet power my three 21" screens anytime soon. Right now I use two NVidia GE Force cards in my desktop.
n the future things could change but right now I do not see my Tablet replace my desktop.

I feel that if the Businesses who want to start treading into Tablet Territory, and whom the iPad has proven unsuitable will pick up Windows 8 Tablets, and it will take off like a storm, Microsoft has never really had this kind of tablet publicity before, nor have they revamped their OS just for tablets on this scale before.

Effectively, this will be the first large-scale Tablet OS that is a full OS. Having that power is a very good thing, right now the competition are Android and iOS. Both are locked down and feature stripped, now suitable for a lot of people's needs.

McKay said,
I feel that if the Businesses who want to start treading into Tablet Territory, and whom the iPad has proven unsuitable will pick up Windows 8 Tablets, and it will take off like a storm, Microsoft has never really had this kind of tablet publicity before, nor have they revamped their OS just for tablets on this scale before.

Effectively, this will be the first large-scale Tablet OS that is a full OS. Having that power is a very good thing, right now the competition are Android and iOS. Both are locked down and feature stripped, now suitable for a lot of people's needs.

In addition to your comments, also consider that, as these are full blown Windows machines, Active Directory policies can be applied to these machines, which will make them very popular with businesses

these guys are a bunch of idiots... specially when you compare Windows 8 to Android.

its like they dont even know about technology, they just want to say it will not sucess....

i dont know why people and blogs still pay attention to this stuff.. but oh well.

my best part "The current buzz around Windows 8 driven by the demonstrations seen at the BUILD conference"... so they are based their analysis in a OS that hasn't even been released. you know its not even RC... well, not even Beta... what?? no! its not even beta its a Developers PREVIEW!

Tablets or Slates? Slates are different than tablets (which have a keyboard). Anyways, I'm sure they will be wrong.

Zedox said,
Tablets or Slates? Slates are different than tablets (which have a keyboard). Anyways, I'm sure they will be wrong.

Tablet is an umbrella term, slates are a subset of tablets

Tablets with a swivel screen and KB are referred to as Hybrid tablets

Tablets with a detachable KB are called Convertible tablets

Tablets with a book form factor (think Courier) are called Booklet tablets

Edited by Sraf, Sep 22 2011, 9:47pm :

Sraf said,

Tablet is an umbrella term, slates are a subset of tablets

Tablets with a swivel screen and KB are referred to as Hybrid tablets

Tablets with a detachable KB are called Convertible tablets

Tablets with a book form factor (think Courier) are called Booklet tablets

Actually Tablet with a swivel screen and KB are "CONVERTIBLE" Tablets; and they have always been since these kind of devices launched.

I think the Windows tablet might really pick up a lot more than Gartner thinks. There's a huge advantage to having a full Windows-compatible OS on the device. This might drive a good deal of commercial sales of tablets that wouldn't even consider the iPad or an Android tablet.

DaveGreen said,
This analysis is flawed.

Care to elaborate? I could just as easily say its flawed and that it massively overestimates MS' chances, it might not be my view but I can still say it

thealexweb said,

Care to elaborate? I could just as easily say its flawed and that it massively overestimates MS' chances, it might not be my view but I can still say it

It's flawed because there is absolutely no data to judge Windows 8 tablet sales IN 2015!!
The analyst brings in stunning precision. 34 million?
Seriously!

Is he an analyst or a fortune-teller?


If there is anything to go by, the platform preview had 500, 000 downloads in 12 hours!
But even this is stupid to judge the future of the product. It is only a developers preview.

So, flawed.

FMH said,
It's flawed because there is absolutely no data to judge Windows 8 tablet sales IN 2015!!
The analyst brings in stunning precision. 34 million?
Seriously!

Is he an analyst or a fortune-teller?


If there is anything to go by, the platform preview had 500, 000 downloads in 12 hours!
But even this is stupid to judge the future of the product. It is only a developers preview.

So, flawed.

I believe that their is not enough data yet.. But this is what they do, analyse things with small amounts of data because people want to take a swing at in.. They are probably taking into account the fact that windows phone has had a hard time gaining consumer interest which is very similar..

Remember this is for Tablets not for desktops or laptops... but i believe they will have a hard time breaking into the market but i have faith they will do better then 3rd.

Lachlan said,

I believe that their is not enough data yet.. But this is what they do, analyse things with small amounts of data because people want to take a swing at in.. They are probably taking into account the fact that windows phone has had a hard time gaining consumer interest which is very similar..

Remember this is for Tablets not for desktops or laptops... but i believe they will have a hard time breaking into the market but i have faith they will do better then 3rd.

Windows already owned every prior generation of Tablets, from Pen Windows in the 90s, to Windows CE based tablets in late 90s/early 00s to XP TabletPC. Vista and Windows 7 have all the prior tablet technologies as well, and have done well in the corporate tablet market. (Notice people out working with computers in their hand, they are Windows Tablets.) They don't have the numbers of the consumer marketed iPads, but they are 'known' in the professional world.

As for the comment about Tablets vs Desktops/Laptops - This definition will go away with Windows 8, as they all become computing devices with similar functionality, no matter if it is a netbook or a traditional SlatePC.

Also don't forget how 'big' Windows is... Apple gets a lot of buzz, but in comparison to people running Windows, they are 'tiny' numbers. There are more people running Windows 7 than all the Macs EVER sold - all the iPhones EVER sold - all the iPads EVER sold combined. (Not just the ones in use today.)

Sadly people still think Apple invented the 'touch screen', the 'smartphone' and the 'tablet' computer. (Although the iPad technically is not a true 'tablet computer', as it is not a full general purpose device, nor does it handle handwriting.)

thenetavenger said,

Windows already owned every prior generation of Tablets, from Pen Windows in the 90s, to Windows CE based tablets in late 90s/early 00s to XP TabletPC. Vista and Windows 7 have all the prior tablet technologies as well, and have done well in the corporate tablet market. (Notice people out working with computers in their hand, they are Windows Tablets.) They don't have the numbers of the consumer marketed iPads, but they are 'known' in the professional world.

As for the comment about Tablets vs Desktops/Laptops - This definition will go away with Windows 8, as they all become computing devices with similar functionality, no matter if it is a netbook or a traditional SlatePC.

Also don't forget how 'big' Windows is... Apple gets a lot of buzz, but in comparison to people running Windows, they are 'tiny' numbers. There are more people running Windows 7 than all the Macs EVER sold - all the iPhones EVER sold - all the iPads EVER sold combined. (Not just the ones in use today.)

Sadly people still think Apple invented the 'touch screen', the 'smartphone' and the 'tablet' computer. (Although the iPad technically is not a true 'tablet computer', as it is not a full general purpose device, nor does it handle handwriting.)

There are more people running iPads than all the Windows tablets EVER sold (in 20 years).

alexalex said,

There are more people running iPads than all the Windows tablets EVER sold (in 20 years).

They were very niche, only good for certain professions and students, really. Artists too, maybe. The Wacom digitizers were sweet.

thenetavenger said,

(Notice people out working with computers in their hand, they are Windows Tablets.)

Actually i see at lot more profesionnal using ipad these days than Windows Tablet. Did not see any windows tablet at a IT conference for a while.

thenetavenger said,

As for the comment about Tablets vs Desktops/Laptops - This definition will go away with Windows 8, as they all become computing devices with similar functionality, no matter if it is a netbook or a traditional SlatePC.

Then should we start adding ios to osx market share ?

Lachlan said,

I believe that their is not enough data yet.. But this is what they do, analyse things with small amounts of data because people want to take a swing at in.. They are probably taking into account the fact that windows phone has had a hard time gaining consumer interest which is very similar..

Remember this is for Tablets not for desktops or laptops... but i believe they will have a hard time breaking into the market but i have faith they will do better then 3rd.

They will have a hardtime why? Its Windows. Windows never has a hard time braking into the market. Its already the market leader. Everyone has been saying once Windows tablets come and they work as good or better than iPad, Apple and everyone else can start looking to move on. 3rd place by 2015?

Lets look back. Apple had a 5 year headstart on IBM. DOS was enough kick Apple to the curb and Windows all but nearly eliminated Mac OS.

What the analyst isnt considering is, x86 tablets are not like the cheap ARM toys Apple and Google have. I would say the ARM versions of the tablet may have a rough time, but not the x86 versions because it is basically a full portable PC and ARM based devices are not.

TechieXP said,

They will have a hardtime why? Its Windows. Windows never has a hard time braking into the market. Its already the market leader. Everyone has been saying once Windows tablets come and they work as good or better than iPad, Apple and everyone else can start looking to move on. 3rd place by 2015?

Lets look back. Apple had a 5 year headstart on IBM. DOS was enough kick Apple to the curb and Windows all but nearly eliminated Mac OS.

What the analyst isnt considering is, x86 tablets are not like the cheap ARM toys Apple and Google have. I would say the ARM versions of the tablet may have a rough time, but not the x86 versions because it is basically a full portable PC and ARM based devices are not.

Hi TechieXP, I agree with you on most points, except the last one.
I think Windows 8 ARM tablets would sell like hot cakes, just like Windows x86.

I think battery life would a great selling point.
And Nvidia CEO did talk about Windows ARM convertibles, which will have battery life that would last for days.