Analyst: Windows 8 won't make a splash until 2016

Analysts. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, they’re full of… well, something. Occasionally, that something turns out to be right. And while we’ve got no comment on the matter, one of them just said that it’ll be 2014 before Windows 8 even begins to take hold. Kind of like how Windows 7 didn’t surpass Windows XP until the very year that its successor was going to be released.

Forrester’s Frank Gillett predicts that while Windows 8 and its sister products, Windows RT and Windows Phone 8, will stop the marketshare bleeding Microsoft is currently experiencing, it won’t really start to turn things around for a few years. In Forrester’s vision of the future, Windows 8 is going to solidify Microsoft’s total dominance of about 30% of the personal devices market up until 2016.

By then, they think that Redmond will have a solid hold on a measly 14% of the smartphone market which, while not impressive, is certainly a lot better than its current position of about 3.6%. They’ll be a little better off in the tablets market, with somewhere along the lines of 27% of unit sales. Desktop dominance isn’t expected to change, no matter how badly some folks hate Windows 8.

In the end, Forrester doesn’t see a whole lot of change over the next couple of years, at least as far as marketshare is concerned. Microsoft owns desktops, Apple owns tablets, and Google owns phones. On the other hand, who even listens to analysts these days?

Source: Forrester | Image via Forrester

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23 Comments

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I almost spilled my coffee reading the headline. These analyst are really full of it. Let me make a prediction.... in 2016 there will be no Windows 8... how about that? Windows Next will be the new 8 around that time and it may have a 3D interface with voice as a 3rd input device and holographic displays will be the new retina... Who would want to run Windows 8 in 2016? Is like asking me to run Android 1.6 in 2012.

Wireless wookie said,
Paul thurrot has a good analyse of this analyse ( see here : http://www.winsupersite.com/bl...heterogeneous-future-144589 ) . It's depend of what is considered as devices on one side, and depends of the market growth on the other side. The MS marketshare isn't really bleeding as we consider those new parameters. So, this analyse is dumb or incomplete but every dumb informations site will consider it as it is...

Huh? Even Thurrott admits that "Microsoft will lose share", only he posits that they "should in fact still grow in the future too"

I agree with him that "It's also not a bad future at all. Choice is good."

Whether the prediction for 2016 will come true or not, I think we can agree that the chart for 2012, where several companies and OSs each have significant personal computing device marketshare, already looks much healthier than one single company absolutely dominating, regardless of which company that might be.

This is junk... You cannot predict 4 years out reliably in the tech world. Things move too fast! The iPad hasn't even been out for 4 years! The iPhone was only released 5 years ago! And this guy thinks he can predict 4 years out on the tech industry? So much has changed in these last 4 years.

rfirth said,

We'll be using Windows 10 and Windows Phone 11.5 by then...

You mean Windows Failsta and Windows Phone Placebo (going by Microsoft's current cycle of intentionally introducing a bad OS then a masquerading a service pack for said fail OS as a new OS so people think they're getting it better this time around.)

"Microsoft owns desktops, Apple owns tablets, and Google owns phones."

I can easily see phones moving upwards to attack tablets from below, and I can see notebooks (PCs) moving downwards to attack tablets from above. What will be left when they meet? Will Apple dominate anything when that happens?

Edited by BattleDaggit, Oct 23 2012, 6:14am :

IronChef75 said,
"Microsoft owns desktops, Apple owns tablets, and Google owns phones."

I can easily see phones moving upwards to attack tablets from below, and I can see notebooks (PCs) moving downwards to attack tablets from above. What will be left when they meet? Will Apple dominate anything when that happens?

They will be out of sizes to "innovate" with...

IronChef75 said,
"Microsoft owns desktops, Apple owns tablets, and Google owns phones."

I can easily see phones moving upwards to attack tablets from below, and I can see notebooks (PCs) moving downwards to attack tablets from above. What will be left when they meet? Will Apple dominate anything when that happens?

Considering Apple's own notebooks and phones will be dominating their respective spheres I don't think they have much to worry about.

Kenny Kanashimi Chu said,
Windows 8 is really not right for desktops, but tablets yes.

Windows 8 is neither for desktop nor tablet.

Brony said,

Windows 8 is neither for desktop nor tablet.

The title of this article made me think of compression between Windows XP, Vista, 7 etc... Didn't expect to be devices.

Well, how could Windows 8 not for tablets?

Don't see that chart happening just because Surface will be a hit and will take away a lot of the android tablets users away. Just because the Android tablet is just junk!

ACTIONpack said,
Don't see that chart happening just because Surface will be a hit and will take away a lot of the android tablets users away. Just because the Android tablet is just junk!

LOL...ahh no. Not at the prices Surface tablets are.

ACTIONpack said,
Don't see that chart happening just because Surface will be a hit and will take away a lot of the android tablets users away. Just because the Android tablet is just junk!

I'd love to know how you come to such a conclusion based purely on your own opinions, rather than actual fact?

I do find them interesting but to take what they say as gospel is a tad silly I think. They do a lot of research into these issues and while its guesswork it is backed by some logic most of the time (by logic I mean the stuff we seldom see on forums such as Neowin), but like I said its still a guess, there aint no crystal ball involved.

duddit2 said,
I do find them interesting but to take what they say as gospel is a tad silly I think. They do a lot of research into these issues and while its guesswork it is backed by some logic most of the time (by logic I mean the stuff we seldom see on forums such as Neowin), but like I said its still a guess, there aint no crystal ball involved.

This they may actually have bang-on - however, Windows 8 itself as an OS won't be why there will be a lack of impact.

The issue is that Windows 8 is being released into the teeth of a poor global economy - despite that hardware requirements are little different (if not NO different) from those of Windows 7, the biggest driver for new Windows licenses has traditionally been hardware refreshes - and the coming fiscal year promises very little of that. (That is, in fact, the REAL reason why Windows 8 upgrade pricing is so cheap - even Microsoft recognizes how poor the economy is globally.)