Could Windows Phone overtake Blackberry in the US by fall?

While Microsoft doesn't officially talk about how many Windows Phone devices have been sold, there has been evidence that Windows Phone-based products are starting to gain steam in the smartphone marketplace. The increase in sales seems to have come mostly at the expense of Research in Motion and its Blackberry OS, which has seen a big dip in sales in the last few quarters.

Now WMPoweruser.com has extrapolated how both these trends could show Windows Phone overtaking Blackberry later this fall. Using web user data from StatCounter, the site predicts that usage of Windows Phone products will be ahead of Blackberry, at least in the US smartphone market, sometime in November.

This would seem to be a pretty safe bet, since Microsoft and its hardware partners such as Nokia, Samsung and HTC are supposed to launch new Windows Phone 8 devices later this fall. However, RIM won't be doing the same. It recently revealed that its Blackberry 10 OS, and its corresponding smartphones, would not launch until sometime in the first quarter of 2013.

Add all that up and it looks like Windows Phone will indeed be making some small, but important, gains in the crowded smartphone race later this year. The big question: Will it also take market share away from iOS and Android?

Source: WMPoweruser.com | Image via WMPoweruser.com

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29 Comments

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ahinson said,
A better title would have been. "Will Windows Phone give Blackberry a RIM job in the US by this fall?"

HAHA!!!! Epic

I am Reid said,
better title would have been "Could Blackberry's market share drop below Windows Phone."

Was gonna say the same. Is it really overtaking when your market share barely moves and Blackberry just falls below cause they are even worse? It's the battle of the 1 percents!

Poor blackberry. I bet that after blackberry 10 arrives next year, they will be dead like palm.

And Windows Phone is like Windows, without partners selling them, they won't even achieve 1% of the market.

still1 said,
even bada OS will overtake RIM phone. Not a big feat here for WP here.

Exactly. At the rate RIM is declining, a whole slew of mobile OS's have the potential to outdo them. Including but not limited to Firefox, Tizen, and Bada.

still1 said,
even bada OS will overtake RIM phone. Not a big feat here for WP here.

Agreed. I mean you have to start somewhere but beating RIM is like bragging you beat up the special needs kid.

MSFT needs to re-think their strategy. clearly it isn't working. maybe just give the OS for free and subsidize with app sales and ads like google does.

at this point if all WP is looking for is %2 marketshare they may as well just not charge.

neonspark said,
MSFT needs to re-think their strategy. clearly it isn't working. maybe just give the OS for free and subsidize with app sales and ads like google does.

at this point if all WP is looking for is %2 marketshare they may as well just not charge.

I think if that's still the case at the end of next year then you're right, however with the Windows 8/WP8/Xbox 360 Fall Update/Surface convergence only a few months away it's worth them doubling down and seeing what happens in the market.

neonspark said,
MSFT needs to re-think their strategy. clearly it isn't working. maybe just give the OS for free and subsidize with app sales and ads like google does.

at this point if all WP is looking for is %2 marketshare they may as well just not charge.

Taking an Android approach to things will ruin it. There are many reasons why WP is superior to Android phones but first on that list is they did not take an Android approach to the hardware. While I am an Android user, I wish that they had taken a WP approach to the hardware which would had taken Android from good to great. If Verizon gets a decent WP, while the trophy ran WP great overall it was a POS, I am jumping the Android ship. I like the eco-system Microsoft is putting into place (except xbox, I like my PS3). Running Windows 8 on my Desktop, Win 8 pro on my work laptop, and I think WP will integrate nicely with them, I will add a surface if they sell for 199 for the RT.

neonspark said,
MSFT needs to re-think their strategy. clearly it isn't working. maybe just give the OS for free and subsidize with app sales and ads like google does.

at this point if all WP is looking for is %2 marketshare they may as well just not charge.

in that case, I would have bought a Droid if I wanted that kind of UX. But I didn't.

tomcoleman said,
go windows!

look at both the slops in the graph.. WP is almost like a straight line with a slow up slant but RIM share is like steep slope downhill.. so isn't it obvious even bada os will beat RIM!!! funny how this article is written.