Is the Kindle Fire cutting into iPad sales already?

Amazon hasn't even launched the Android-based Kindle Fire tablet (it's due to be released on November 15) but two separate studies may show that the tablet could be making people think twice about purchasing Apple's popular iPad. Forbes reports that according to a ChangeWave survey of 2,600 early technology adopters, five percent of those surveyed said that they had already pre-ordered the Kindle Fire or were very likely to buy the tablet. By contrast only four percent of people surveyed back in 2010 had purchased or were highly likely to buy the iPad when it was first announced.

Not only that, but of that five percent of Kindle Fire fans, 26 percent of them said they would delay or hold off on plans to purchase the iPad. We are betting that the $199 price point is part of the reason for that statistic.

In another story today, News.com reports that sales of the iPad might actually be slowing down. Analyst Ashok Kumar of Rodman and Renshaw claims that iPad unit production has been cut down "due to moderating sell-through". He predicts that instead of 14 to 15 million iPad sales in the current fourth quarter, the numbers will be closer to 11 or 12 million units.

What does all this mean? For Amazon, it likely means that it will be selling a lot of Kindle Fire tablets. For Apple it means that while the iPad may still be the dominate tablet the rise of the Kindle Fire will almost definitely eat into its massive market share, more than any other tablet competitor up to now. Will Apple counter with a cheaper iPad of its own? Will Amazon make a bigger tablet that's priced closer to the iPad but with more features? Stay tuned.

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"We are betting that the $199 price point is part of the reason for that statistic"

That's kinda obvious, isn't it? That's kinda the whole idea behind the Fire, a decent tablet for a decent price.

Heh, it's funny how cut down iPad sale expectations might "just" be 11-12 million units for a single quarter. But yes, all Kindles are low cost alternatives to the iPad if all you actually want to do is use it as an e-reader. Since the Fire can do a few more things than that on top, it's probably a good competitor for basic media consumption.

Northgrove said,
Heh, it's funny how cut down iPad sale expectations might "just" be 11-12 million units for a single quarter. But yes, all Kindles are low cost alternatives to the iPad if all you actually want to do is use it as an e-reader. Since the Fire can do a few more things than that on top, it's probably a good competitor for basic media consumption.

You speak as if the majority of iPad owners are doing amazing things with their iPads. Yes, it is powerful and there are some advanced users out there making great use of them, but more likely than not, the majority of iPad owners use their iPads for nothing more than web browsing, playing Angry Birds, perhaps watching video or listening to music, and yes, using it as an e-reader as well.

So to summarize, the Kindle Fire will fulfill the needs of the vast majority of people who own, or will own a tablet, and it will do so at a $199 price point.

Competition is always good. I think the iPad will remain the dominant tablet for some time however the Kindle Fire will most certainly be up there as the 2nd most popular.

Not according to this report : (Amazon will have only 5% in 2012)

Apple's Share of the 2011 Tablet Market: 75 Percent or More

With its competitors unable to field a true iPad rival, Apple's tablet continues to dominate the market that it created. The company sold 11.1 million iPads in the September quarter, accounting for about three-quarters of all tablets sold to consumers. And with a true competitor yet to emerge, that dominance will likely persist for some time, further reinforced by the upcoming holiday shopping season.
Says Canaccord Genuity's T. Michael Walkley, “We anticipate very strong sales of the iPad 2 for the holiday quarter, and we are modeling iPad units ramping from 11.1 million units in the September quarter to 14.0 million units in the December quarter.”

“While new entrants such as Amazon could disrupt the completive dynamics into holiday sales, we view low-priced 7-inch models as a threat to other Android OEMs rather than to the iPad,” he says. “As such, given our updated iPad estimates, we anticipate Apple will command roughly 65 percent of the tablet units sold into the channel during C2011. However, we believe Apple's sell-through share of the tablet market will exceed 75 percent during C2011.”...

http://allthingsd.com/20111107...-market-75-percent-or-more/


*shrugs* Its possible, but at the same time how are the other tablets doing? They'll be hurt as well, in theory. Personally, I think Amazon will do well, although how many people will return the fires having hoped it would be just like an iPad is something I'm curious to see.

I can't see Apple lowering prices, and if they follow form, they'll opt for higher profit per unit sold versus selling more at lower margins. If they ever do lower prices, well, that would be impressive, but it'll still be relatively premium pricing.

I don't have neither of them and even if I did have the money for a Kindle Fire, I would wait till the 1st gen were out for reviews

Good. Only because Apple actually had the nerve to say that consumers will see fragmentation on Androids part and opt-out and buy an iPad. Apple should know this better than anyone. Consumers are not tech savy. Which is why Apple can get away with their dumb marketing (especially with their 4G comparison to the iPhone 4S and excluding 4G LTE in their "comparison").

Overall this is good for the market. Manufacturers can finally start lowering their prices next year.

UndergroundWire said,
Which is why Apple can get away with their dumb marketing

If their marketing that gets them 14 to 15 million sales is dumb, I would love to see some good marketing just to see how many sales that would bring them. Don't have to like what they make or do, but calling their marketing dumb only makes you look dumb. There are few that can compare to Apples marketing skills.

ILikeTobacco said,

If their marketing that gets them 14 to 15 million sales is dumb, I would love to see some good marketing just to see how many sales that would bring them. Don't have to like what they make or do, but calling their marketing dumb only makes you look dumb. There are few that can compare to Apples marketing skills.

I call their marketing dumb because only idiots fall for what Apple has to say. Fortunately I know my technology and can't fall for their BS. If it works on you, that's your problem. I merely pointed out one example of how they attract the morons to their products.

It's like when I see cable internet commercials trying to compete with Verizon FiOS then saying they are faster than Verizon Internet (referring to the Verizon DSL without actually saying DSL). Idiots fall for that kind of stuff, NOT ME!

If that is all you got out of what I had to say then you completely missed my point. Consumers in general know NOTHING about technology. They don't know what is running Android and what is not. For Apple to say something so dumb is expecting a lot from the general consumer. Perhaps you should re-read what I had to say. Maybe read it slower if you are having trouble understanding.

UndergroundWire said,

I call their marketing dumb because only idiots fall for what Apple has to say. Fortunately I know my technology and can't fall for their BS.


Agreed, and it just shows how many stupid people there are on this planet.. :\

UndergroundWire said,

I call their marketing dumb because only idiots fall for what Apple has to say. Fortunately I know my technology and can't fall for their BS. If it works on you, that's your problem.

Good for you... But guess what? I'm willing to bet that most people don't buy an iPad (or any tablet for that matter) based on just the commercial. You know how I know this? Because every Apple store is jam-packed with people TRYING out the product. All ads are exaggerated to an extent, so even a monkey would know that. All they want to do is lure you into the store and let you find out for yourself that it's a quality product. Fact is, the iPad is by far the best tablet on the market, and that's the reason why they are unloading millions upon millions of them. All of you Apple haters are so blind to reality that you all talk down on Apple users as idiots or a "sheep". Well Apple is laughing all the way to the bank while their customers are enjoying a great product. But hey, maybe the next Android tablet will be the "iPad Killer".... No? Okay, maybe the twentieth one after that...

Astra.Xtreme said,

All of you Apple haters are so blind to reality that you all talk down on Apple users as idiots or a "sheep". Well Apple is laughing all the way to the bank while their customers are enjoying a great product. But hey, maybe the next Android tablet will be the "iPad Killer".... No? Okay, maybe the twentieth one after that...

You killed your post with this.
Apple will start seeing a decline when Android devices such as this one get very cheap. And it will be killed off completely when Win 8 gets released. Why? Because in a 2 - 3 years frame, there will be cheap (200 US$) Win8 tablets, and Apple won't be going below its 500 US$ frame.

P.S: Apple buyers may not be idiots, because a very few do really like what Apple gives for them.

But most of them are sheep, because they do believe that something is magical an revolutionary when it has been made previously but not as hyped up as Apple did.

Astra.Xtreme said,

Good for you... But guess what? I'm willing to bet that most people don't buy an iPad (or any tablet for that matter) based on just the commercial. You know how I know this? Because every Apple store is jam-packed with people TRYING out the product. All ads are exaggerated to an extent, so even a monkey would know that. All they want to do is lure you into the store and let you find out for yourself that it's a quality product. Fact is, the iPad is by far the best tablet on the market, and that's the reason why they are unloading millions upon millions of them. All of you Apple haters are so blind to reality that you all talk down on Apple users as idiots or a "sheep". Well Apple is laughing all the way to the bank while their customers are enjoying a great product. But hey, maybe the next Android tablet will be the "iPad Killer".... No? Okay, maybe the twentieth one after that...

Yeah, remember when they said that about phones. The iPhone Killer. Guess what Android is on top. How long do you think Apple will be on top with their tablets? Apple prices things too high. Look at their desktop line, laptop line, their iPhone line (I'm not talking about 2-year contract pricing).

Thank you Apple for introducing the world to X product, but we'll take over from here. Apple needs to learn to adjust pricing when competition heats up.

Apple is number 2 in desktop OS!
Apple is number 2 in mobile OS!
How long before we can say the same thing for tablets?

It's not to say that number 2 is bad, Apple is still making money by being number 2 in mobile OS. But why did Apple (mainly Steve Jobs) get all worked up over Android? You see if they are taking it personal for being number 2, why can't I rub that in? Why can't I rub that in to the iSheep? It's an obvious issue that Apple can't seem to deal with.

Good for Amazon stealing market share from Apple in the tablet market. I hope the Nook Tablet does the same in the coming months.

Jose_49 said,

You killed your post with this.
Apple will start seeing a decline when Android devices such as this one get very cheap. And it will be killed off completely when Win 8 gets released. Why? Because in a 2 - 3 years frame, there will be cheap (200 US$) Win8 tablets, and Apple won't be going below its 500 US$ frame.

And your post is DOA unless you can see 2-3 years into the future, and have data to back up the, "most of them are sheep," claim chowder.

Astra, I wouldn't go as far as to say that the iPad is the best tablet and it's a fact because that's subjective. But it is certainly the best selling. For now. Not in some theoretical future.

Underground, and we're still waiting on this iPhone killer. Hell, we're still waiting for the iPod killer. Android, the platform, is on top, yes, but the iPhone is still the best selling and takes most of the mobile revenue. The only line that comes close, I think, is the Galaxy line, but whatever Samsung sold of those in a year, Apple sold of theirs in just over a quarter.

UndergroundWire said,
Good. Only because Apple actually had the nerve to say that consumers will see fragmentation on Androids...

When did Apple say that? I wouldn't be surprised if they did, but too often critics of Apple grasp at straws and take any-old-comment on the Internet and make it out like Apple said this, or Steve Jobs said that. So please clarify because that is the krux of your argument.

omgben said,

And your post is DOA unless you can see 2-3 years into the future, and have data to back up the, "most of them are sheep," claim chowder.

Astra, I wouldn't go as far as to say that the iPad is the best tablet and it's a fact because that's subjective. But it is certainly the best selling. For now. Not in some theoretical future.

Underground, and we're still waiting on this iPhone killer. Hell, we're still waiting for the iPod killer. Android, the platform, is on top, yes, but the iPhone is still the best selling and takes most of the mobile revenue. The only line that comes close, I think, is the Galaxy line, but whatever Samsung sold of those in a year, Apple sold of theirs in just over a quarter.

A couple of points for you.

1) Samsung is now the number 1 manufacturer of phones. http://www.businessweek.com/ne...gest-smartphone-seller.html
2) If one of Android manufacturers is killing Apple in sales, it's no wonder why Android dominates.
3) There is no "iPhone Killer". Only idiots like to compare everything to Apple when the platforms are very different. Which is why you don't see those stupid articles anymore. Until an iPhone can customize screens (no application grid), include widgets, include live wallpaper, etc. there is no reason to compare the phones.
4) Samsung, HTC, Motorola (those are just the top 3) all saw huge gains from selling Android. It's not like they are doing bad at all.
5) iPhone sales are usually big one quarter (all the iSheep line up when it is released) then it levels off where as Android is constantly seeing huge gains every quarter. You see where Apple fails is technology is evolving and people don't all want the same thing. Android accommodate these two points very well.

Shadrack said,

When did Apple say that? I wouldn't be surprised if they did, but too often critics of Apple grasp at straws and take any-old-comment on the Internet and make it out like Apple said this, or Steve Jobs said that. So please clarify because that is the crux of your argument.

Unlike other people on this forum, I can backup what I say
http://www.bgr.com/2011/11/03/...ll-drive-consumers-to-ipad/
http://www.droid-life.com/2011...help-apple-sell-more-ipads/
http://www.macrumors.com/2011/...more-android-fragmentation/
http://www.appleinsider.com/ar...rther_fragment_android.html

There's more articles that I can post if you would like. I tried to get an article from a neutral source, 1 from and Android source and 2 from Mac just to be fair.

Edited by UndergroundWire, Nov 10 2011, 5:20pm :

Reitzer, an analysis for UBS Investment Research (Barclay), said those things. You linked to 4 re-hash blog/like articles that all link to the same source. Can you find anything that someone at Apple said in any official way?

Nevermind, I found a statement from Steve Jobs. Ok, so Apple thinks Android is just as fragmented as the rest of us

P.S. I have a Kindle Fire on pre-order.

Shadrack said,
Reitzer, an analysis for UBS Investment Research (Barclay), said those things. You linked to 4 re-hash blog/like articles that all link to the same source. Can you find anything that someone at Apple said in any official way?

Nevermind, I found a statement from Steve Jobs. Ok, so Apple thinks Android is just as fragmented as the rest of us

P.S. I have a Kindle Fire on pre-order.

Reitzes met with Tim Cook (Apple) and Peter Oppenheimer (Apple). That is what they said in the meeting. How come I don't see Apple coming out saying "We didn't say that"?

Who is grasping at straws now?

UndergroundWire said,

Yeah, remember when they said that about phones. The iPhone Killer. Guess what Android is on top. How long do you think Apple will be on top with their tablets? Apple prices things too high. Look at their desktop line, laptop line, their iPhone line (I'm not talking about 2-year contract pricing).

Thank you Apple for introducing the world to X product, but we'll take over from here. Apple needs to learn to adjust pricing when competition heats up.

Apple is number 2 in desktop OS!
Apple is number 2 in mobile OS!
How long before we can say the same thing for tablets?

It's not to say that number 2 is bad, Apple is still making money by being number 2 in mobile OS. But why did Apple (mainly Steve Jobs) get all worked up over Android? You see if they are taking it personal for being number 2, why can't I rub that in? Why can't I rub that in to the iSheep? It's an obvious issue that Apple can't seem to deal with.

Good for Amazon stealing market share from Apple in the tablet market. I hope the Nook Tablet does the same in the coming months.

It's pretty dumb to compare a whole fleet of devices (Android) to a single iOS device. No single Android device comes within a light year of the sales of an iPad or iPhone.

In fact, it's really sad how huge of a chunk of the market that one device can have. The iPad has what, 75% of the tablet market? At this point, it's so far along that something else could never dig into that. And if for some miraculous reason, a cheap tablet starts threatening iPad sales, Apple will lower their price and crush it. This is the power they get by single-handedly jump-starting a market. The exception is obviously their computer line, but that was never meant to be mass produced for "everybody".

Jose_49 said,

You killed your post with this.
Apple will start seeing a decline when Android devices such as this one get very cheap. And it will be killed off completely when Win 8 gets released. Why? Because in a 2 - 3 years frame, there will be cheap (200 US$) Win8 tablets, and Apple won't be going below its 500 US$ frame.

Companies can't afford to push out cheap tablets like this. The Kindle Fire is likely sold at a big loss with hopes that apps and books and magazine sales make up the difference. The average Android tablet company doesn't have that luxury, so it will never happen. Also, there is no way in hell a Windows 8 tablet will cost $200. The licensing alone for Windows will keep the price super high. Probably even higher than the iPads which will easily be the reason why they will quickly fail.

Astra.Xtreme said,

It's pretty dumb to compare a whole fleet of devices (Android) to a single iOS device. No single Android device comes within a light year of the sales of an iPad or iPhone.

In fact, it's really sad how huge of a chunk of the market that one device can have. The iPad has what, 75% of the tablet market? At this point, it's so far along that something else could never dig into that. And if for some miraculous reason, a cheap tablet starts threatening iPad sales, Apple will lower their price and crush it. This is the power they get by single-handedly jump-starting a market. The exception is obviously their computer line, but that was never meant to be mass produced for "everybody".

It's pretty dumb to compare two different products in general. Apple has always been the exception to the rule. People in general just go Apple crazy. It's not like the iPhone is some great product worth going crazy over.

The fact is in the end, Apple can not under-price their products to compete. People that are Apple will crazy will still buy their products. But thank God there are more smarter people that think with their wallets than the ones that look at a logo. Especially in these economic conditions.

Astra.Xtreme said,

Companies can't afford to push out cheap tablets like this. The Kindle Fire is likely sold at a big loss with hopes that apps and books and magazine sales make up the difference. The average Android tablet company doesn't have that luxury, so it will never happen. Also, there is no way in hell a Windows 8 tablet will cost $200. The licensing alone for Windows will keep the price super high. Probably even higher than the iPads which will easily be the reason why they will quickly fail.

I actually can't wait when the first Windows 8 tablet comes out. No I don't want one. I just happen to agree with what you have to say about the pricing and want these fan boy idiots to shut up about it.