CDs and DVDs are doomed - so say those soothsayers at Forrester, who reckon that the "end of physical media is nearing". Forrester reckons that a third of all music sales will be made by downloads in the next five years. It also predicts that almost 15 per cent of films will be viewed by "on-demand" services such as cable TV rather than by DVD or video by 2005. Although this will "wreak havoc" with traditional retailers flogging and renting the stuff, digital downloads and on-demand services could give the creative industry a much-needed shot in the arm, concluded the report From Discs to Downloads.
"On-demand services are the future of entertainment delivery. CDs, DVDs, and any other forms of physical media will become obsolete," predicted Forrester analyst Josh Bernoff. "Music and studio executives are finally beginning to understand that they must create new media services through channels that consumers will pay for. Consumers have spoken - they are tired of paying the high cost of CDs and DVDs and prefer more flexible forms of on-demand media delivery," he said.
According to Forrester, music sales are set to increase by more than half a billion dollars in 2004 thanks to online revenues. Equally, on-demand movie distribution channels will generate $1.4 billion by 2005, while revenue from DVDs and tapes will decline 8 percent.
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News source: The Reg
"On-demand services are the future of entertainment delivery. CDs, DVDs, and any other forms of physical media will become obsolete," predicted Forrester analyst Josh Bernoff. "Music and studio executives are finally beginning to understand that they must create new media services through channels that consumers will pay for. Consumers have spoken - they are tired of paying the high cost of CDs and DVDs and prefer more flexible forms of on-demand media delivery," he said.
According to Forrester, music sales are set to increase by more than half a billion dollars in 2004 thanks to online revenues. Equally, on-demand movie distribution channels will generate $1.4 billion by 2005, while revenue from DVDs and tapes will decline 8 percent.
NVIDIA's major rival in the PC space, ATI, recently won the contract to create the graphics chipset for the successor to Microsoft's Xbox - no surprise to those who have been following the internal tensions in the relationship between Microsoft and NVIDIA over the current Xbox contract, but rumours suggest that the final stumbling block may have been a refusal by NVIDIA to hand over manufacturing permissions for the chipset to Microsoft rather than creating and supplying all of the components itself. Given Sony's track record, it seems highly unlikely that it would accept anything less than this from a technology partner - so even ignoring the technology hurdles, a deal seems highly unlikely.
However, our source could not rule out the possibility of discussions between Sony and NVIDIA. "I'd expect that Sony talk to a lot of people," he commented. "In a business like that you always explore all the options, but it would take a hell of a pitch to change minds at Sony about internally developing the GPU, and NVIDIA just don't have that pitch. People hear a whisper that someone from NVIDIA is talking to someone from Sony and bang, you have a massive rumour, but it really doesn't mean anything - people from these companies talk all the time."

Just look how long it's taken VHS to phase out, and they still are not phased 100% out yet. So this is just one person's opinion.
It could take some market share from the movie renting business though.
How would I lend my downloaded album to my mate? By burning it onto CD, mite aswell buy a CD.
Also, A lossless(or very good quality) download of some music would be a massive download, it'd be quicker to go to the shop and buy the CD.
That's quite a few DVDs and CDs.
The storage and retrieval technology is already here; it's just a matter of time before media availability and bandwidth capabilities catch up.
*dies from the previous rant*
recently i have cds degrading like hell...!...,
weird spots starts to appear on them, and then the cd is dead....!!
i'll never back my important files on cds ever again.... and i won't even trust getting dvds if they are going to die like that...
Only guessing but i think analysts like 'Forrester' bunch predicted Vinyl was doomed when casette's came in...
so 8% in 2 years... approx. so in 20 years time DVD will be out? i'd expect them to be phased out quicker than that as newer formats are being developed more frequently and each has new benefits...
I will also not pay for a moive that isn't encoded with HDtv ready picture and DTS or 5.1 audio.
3D displays
I don't think it's quite the end of physical media, unless they give every household a free OC-256 connection.
If everything does become online to download, then surely it'll be harder for people to choose between 2 exact copies of something... just one free, and one not
I too am a person who buys the good films on DVD, I want my collection of discs.
Phasing out - no time soon I can tell you. People are still buying Vinyl Records these days (granted a lot of them are DJ's, but they're still used). VHS is still widely used, cassettes are still widely used. In comparison CD's & DVD's are relatively new considering, so we've got many decades before these phase out (Vinyl 1st, then cassette, then CD, then DVD, then Blu-Ray, then Holographic Storage)...the list is endless.
Point being, CD/DVD's are here to stay and won't phase out for decades to come. DVD writers are still very new to me, I'll be buying my 1st DVD writer (+R/+RW) next April '04...and this is still new technology (and finally the prices have gone down to decent levels). Blank DVD's are now cheaper than CD's (£2 per DVD 4.7GB, £1 per CD 700MB...easy math there)
...suggests an initial retail price of USD $3800.00. I don't know about you guys, but that's a little pricey for me!
Q
Last edited by 13486 on 02 Sep 2003 - 16:56
They can go to the cinema for that. Demand for the majority of ppl will always be for physical and tangible media.
Sales managers talking crap...view on demand...
We the public will decide.
daredevil
the hulk
terminator 3
lilhaloshaka
http://www.superaudio-cd.com/
on demand at light speed !!
Colossal Storage Corporation
I have an idea!
There will be a software where you have to sign-up for it. (which include credit card)
You will be able to download Mp3!
And you can add Mp3 servers, and you start off with one.
"Why do you need a credit card?"
You have to BUY the Mp3s!
One Mp3 will cost 50¢ (USD). Price may change due to servers' choice.
...End of story...
(P.S. - If they don't make this technology, the world will end up with 4mm microchips!
Last edited by 28304 on 27 Sep 2003 - 17:53
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