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CDs and DVDs are 'doomed'

Daniel Fleshbourne   on 02 September 2003 - 14:33 · 39 comments & 3139 views

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CDs and DVDs are doomed - so say those soothsayers at Forrester, who reckon that the "end of physical media is nearing". Forrester reckons that a third of all music sales will be made by downloads in the next five years. It also predicts that almost 15 per cent of films will be viewed by "on-demand" services such as cable TV rather than by DVD or video by 2005. Although this will "wreak havoc" with traditional retailers flogging and renting the stuff, digital downloads and on-demand services could give the creative industry a much-needed shot in the arm, concluded the report From Discs to Downloads.

"On-demand services are the future of entertainment delivery. CDs, DVDs, and any other forms of physical media will become obsolete," predicted Forrester analyst Josh Bernoff. "Music and studio executives are finally beginning to understand that they must create new media services through channels that consumers will pay for. Consumers have spoken - they are tired of paying the high cost of CDs and DVDs and prefer more flexible forms of on-demand media delivery," he said.

According to Forrester, music sales are set to increase by more than half a billion dollars in 2004 thanks to online revenues. Equally, on-demand movie distribution channels will generate $1.4 billion by 2005, while revenue from DVDs and tapes will decline 8 percent.

View: The full story
News source: The Reg


NVIDIA's major rival in the PC space, ATI, recently won the contract to create the graphics chipset for the successor to Microsoft's Xbox - no surprise to those who have been following the internal tensions in the relationship between Microsoft and NVIDIA over the current Xbox contract, but rumours suggest that the final stumbling block may have been a refusal by NVIDIA to hand over manufacturing permissions for the chipset to Microsoft rather than creating and supplying all of the components itself. Given Sony's track record, it seems highly unlikely that it would accept anything less than this from a technology partner - so even ignoring the technology hurdles, a deal seems highly unlikely.

However, our source could not rule out the possibility of discussions between Sony and NVIDIA. "I'd expect that Sony talk to a lot of people," he commented. "In a business like that you always explore all the options, but it would take a hell of a pitch to change minds at Sony about internally developing the GPU, and NVIDIA just don't have that pitch. People hear a whisper that someone from NVIDIA is talking to someone from Sony and bang, you have a massive rumour, but it really doesn't mean anything - people from these companies talk all the time."

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#1 TheDeputy on 02 Sep 2003 - 14:35
I don't think so. People like to collect DVD's, well the people who pay for them. I highly doubt we will see this in 10-15 years.
Just look how long it's taken VHS to phase out, and they still are not phased 100% out yet. So this is just one person's opinion.
(1 reply) #2 edgrale on 02 Sep 2003 - 14:37
VHS is not phased out, and wont be as long as recording DVD's cost 100's of bucks.
#2.1 TheDeputy on 02 Sep 2003 - 15:18
As I said they are not phased out 100%. If you go to rental stores see how many DVD's to VHS they have. Here in Canada Blockbuster and Rogers are around 80% DVD's now.
#3 cerbero on 02 Sep 2003 - 14:44
It's hardly the end of DVDs.. I'd much rather have a DVD in my shelf, with a nice cover, and lots of extras on the discs, than download movies every time I want to watch them. Sure I download movies now, but not to collect. Movies I want to keep and watch again, I buy.
It could take some market share from the movie renting business though.
#4 neel2k on 02 Sep 2003 - 14:45
I would like to have stuff I have paid for on something that I can hold.
How would I lend my downloaded album to my mate? By burning it onto CD, mite aswell buy a CD.
Also, A lossless(or very good quality) download of some music would be a massive download, it'd be quicker to go to the shop and buy the CD.
(1 reply) #5 forster on 02 Sep 2003 - 14:45
... hmm, perhaps the news is correct, but users still need to backup / store their data elsewhere in a place other than their current HDD's, so I dont think cd's and dvd's are quite 'doomed' yet
#5.1 Octol on 02 Sep 2003 - 15:48
On my main system, I have two 120GB HDDs, mirrored, for my stored data. I could just as easily have four 250GB drives in two mirrored sets for a half-terrabyte of storage that I would never have to back up or worry about losing.

That's quite a few DVDs and CDs.

The storage and retrieval technology is already here; it's just a matter of time before media availability and bandwidth capabilities catch up.
#6 SimplyPotatoes on 02 Sep 2003 - 14:46
end of year in 2005 no more digital television right?! so everyone with a old tv need a DAC and i have a new DAC from microsoft/brighthouse for beta testing and OMAN it has lots of ports on the back but when i try ti record any HDTV show on my vcr through its video output it shows This Material is ina format not useable by ur blah blah and i cant record it. also it only records the highest quality in wm9 for everything!! not just hdtv ; so if microsoft and brighthouse only make these then OMG everthing will be in wm9 format sigh. i guess u could use some other manufactures DAC to get regular cable (ie all channels below 100 now non digital) but with digital the cable companies will probly use encryption so sigh people are going to be pissed either way they have to buy a DAC or rent one...
#7 kingius on 02 Sep 2003 - 14:47

*dies from the previous rant*
(2 replies) #8 iomayho on 02 Sep 2003 - 14:51
i think the main reason cds and dvds will be doomed is if companies don't start to come up with ways to prevent them from degrading...!!!
recently i have cds degrading like hell...!...,
weird spots starts to appear on them, and then the cd is dead....!!
i'll never back my important files on cds ever again.... and i won't even trust getting dvds if they are going to die like that...
#8.1 Mav Phoenix on 02 Sep 2003 - 14:58
That's what will happen to most anything unfortunately seeing as nothing made by human hands is perfect.
#8.2 TheDeputy on 02 Sep 2003 - 15:20
I don't know what cheap CDR's you guys buy but i've had CDR's that i've bought like 4 years ago and they still work just fine. I've never had any fading problems or anything like that, or any spotting
#9 kingius on 02 Sep 2003 - 14:52
aliens are stealing our backup cds and replacing them with coasters!
#10 antny_uk on 02 Sep 2003 - 14:56
I agree with with #1... no way are DVD's doomed. I too like to go out and buy DVD's and are proud of my collection.
Only guessing but i think analysts like 'Forrester' bunch predicted Vinyl was doomed when casette's came in...

QUOTE
Equally, on-demand movie distribution channels will generate $1.4 billion by 2005, while revenue from DVDs and tapes will decline 8 percent.


so 8% in 2 years... approx. so in 20 years time DVD will be out? i'd expect them to be phased out quicker than that as newer formats are being developed more frequently and each has new benefits...
#11 ryuh3d on 02 Sep 2003 - 15:01
People still enjoy ownership. Plus bandwidth is also a major problem. I am not going to download a 9gb movie over a cable movie.

I will also not pay for a moive that isn't encoded with HDtv ready picture and DTS or 5.1 audio.
#12 Rambo2000 on 02 Sep 2003 - 15:03
DVD's and CD's will die out in the future but not for awhile yet, reason being is that what would be the point of having DVD's and CD's when we have hard drives that are really big, a lot bigger then today and internet access will be a lot faster then today meaning, what reason would there be to have DVD's and CD's, for 1, if I want to back up information, no probs, I'll back it up on a secondary hard drive or even on the internet, 2, if I want to send information to a friend or anywhere else, no problem again, send it over the internet to them, considering pretty much everyone will be on the internet and it will be way faster then it is today, there'll be little to no need to have DVD's and CD's in the future, but it's not going to happen in 10 years, will take longer then that.
#13 kingius on 02 Sep 2003 - 15:08
You are forgetting a simple thing - that as the internet speeds up and hard drives become bigger, so will the optical storage mediums. In ten years time we will have optical disks that stores hundreds of terabytes and, as films will now be on these in a super-resolution format, it will still take forever to download the latest blockbuster. So, disks are here for good.
#14 antny_uk on 02 Sep 2003 - 15:18
wonder how much space it takes to store a 3D movie with 7.2 audio??

3D displays
#15 djze on 02 Sep 2003 - 15:45
Are these the same guys that predicted the end of newspapers, mags and books when the internet took off? a bunch of bs if you ask me
#16 whistlerxp on 02 Sep 2003 - 15:49
Pah... Downloading will never really catch on (legal or ilegal). CDs & DVDs have cornered the market.
#17 vetToxicfume on 02 Sep 2003 - 15:59
Holographic storage someone.
#18 Marduk on 02 Sep 2003 - 16:06
HAH! Give that line about downloading all your movies to some poor guy that has a extremely homo ISP that has a small quota. I bet you'll make him mighty angry!
#19 Darkness2k on 02 Sep 2003 - 16:23
So this means that if you want a new game for your PS2 you'll need a writer that creates authentic PS2 readable disks without using a modchip in your console, as well as the time and bandwidth to download DVD sized games lol

I don't think it's quite the end of physical media, unless they give every household a free OC-256 connection.

If everything does become online to download, then surely it'll be harder for people to choose between 2 exact copies of something... just one free, and one not
(1 reply) #20 DjmUK on 02 Sep 2003 - 16:32
And now Blu-Ray is supposed to be coming out with 25GB per disc as far as I know. And these are using a completely different type of dye - so hopefully these will last longer than CD / DVD's.

I too am a person who buys the good films on DVD, I want my collection of discs.

Phasing out - no time soon I can tell you. People are still buying Vinyl Records these days (granted a lot of them are DJ's, but they're still used). VHS is still widely used, cassettes are still widely used. In comparison CD's & DVD's are relatively new considering, so we've got many decades before these phase out (Vinyl 1st, then cassette, then CD, then DVD, then Blu-Ray, then Holographic Storage)...the list is endless.

Point being, CD/DVD's are here to stay and won't phase out for decades to come. DVD writers are still very new to me, I'll be buying my 1st DVD writer (+R/+RW) next April '04...and this is still new technology (and finally the prices have gone down to decent levels). Blank DVD's are now cheaper than CD's (£2 per DVD 4.7GB, £1 per CD 700MB...easy math there)
#20.1 Octol on 03 Sep 2003 - 11:19
A Digit-life review of the SONY BDZ-S77 Blu-Ray Recorder...



...suggests an initial retail price of USD $3800.00. I don't know about you guys, but that's a little pricey for me!
#21 raid517 on 02 Sep 2003 - 16:51
Na I like my DVD collection too much. My only gripe is the lack of capacity. But BlueRay discs will overcome this pretty soon anyway.

Q

Last edited by 13486 on 02 Sep 2003 - 16:56
#22 Bryan000 on 02 Sep 2003 - 17:10
Uhhh, this study is bull. I love buying DVDs, and even CDs (though, mostly DVDs!) I would much rather buy something that I can OWN instead of paying a fee to only watch/listen to it temporarily! "The Consumers have spoken" they say? I would like to see their research. What a LOAD!
#23 Tartan on 02 Sep 2003 - 19:23
This is Bulls**t, people will always want to own a copy of movie or music album just like books. Although a small minority will be happy with on demand services, the majority will ALWAYS want their own physical copy of it. Their is NO WAY ppl will choose to keep paying for something they can only watch or listen once each time.
They can go to the cinema for that. Demand for the majority of ppl will always be for physical and tangible media.
#24 Tikimotel on 02 Sep 2003 - 19:24
Ha!,
Sales managers talking crap...view on demand...

We the public will decide.
#25 sodapop on 02 Sep 2003 - 19:32
Ha!, This is one of the funniest things I have ever read...the death of cd/dvd LOL!
#26 phen!x on 02 Sep 2003 - 19:48
Hmm.. i doubt it.
#27 DWZ on 02 Sep 2003 - 22:22
QUOTE
It also predicts that almost 15 per cent of films will be viewed by "on-demand" services such as cable TV rather than by DVD or video by 2005. Although this will "wreak havoc" with traditional retailers flogging and renting the stuff, digital downloads and on-demand services could give the creative industry a much-needed shot in the arm, concluded the report From Discs to Downloads.
I'm going to take a guess that these people have never looked at the Australian market...
#28 snippet1 on 03 Sep 2003 - 01:12
CDs and DVDs mightn't stay, but there will always be new formats.
#29 perochan on 03 Sep 2003 - 04:03
I heard there will be a new CD format that has lot more spaces than DVDs. Forgot the name tho. I think the CD is transparent.
(1 reply) #30 lilhaloshaka on 03 Sep 2003 - 05:34
dvds will be doomed if they keep making sh** movies like,
daredevil
the hulk
terminator 3
#30.1 Geo on 03 Sep 2003 - 08:56
The world will be doomed if they keep giving birth to people like,
lilhaloshaka
#31 Galley_SimRacer on 03 Sep 2003 - 14:39
Standard audio CDs don't thrill me any longer. As far as 16-bit audio goes, I am perfectly happy with 128Mbps MP3s. If I am gonna listen to an audio disc, it's gotta be a 24-bit Super Audio CD.
http://www.superaudio-cd.com/
#32 micahelthomas on 03 Sep 2003 - 17:36
Atomic Holographic Optical Storage will be able to down load 1,000,000 movies
on demand at light speed !!

Colossal Storage Corporation
#33 docterbluj on 16 Sep 2003 - 00:46
This was all started by file sharing!

I have an idea!

There will be a software where you have to sign-up for it. (which include credit card)

You will be able to download Mp3!

And you can add Mp3 servers, and you start off with one.

"Why do you need a credit card?"

You have to BUY the Mp3s!

One Mp3 will cost 50¢ (USD). Price may change due to servers' choice.

...End of story...

(P.S. - If they don't make this technology, the world will end up with 4mm microchips! )

Last edited by 28304 on 27 Sep 2003 - 17:53

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