Bill Gates shares his vision for a future free of DVDs. He views a television that shows the user what they want to see, when they want to see it. Is Bill Gates right? In only ten years will we be DVD free, and come to rely on another format?

DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years at the latest, Microsoft boss and founder Bill Gates predicted. Asked what home entertainment would like in the future, Gates said that DVD technology would be "obsolete in 10 years at the latest. If you consider that nowadays we have to carry around film and music on little silver discs and stick them in the computer, it's ridiculous," Gates said in comments reproduced in German in the mass-circulation daily Bild.

"These things can scratch or simply get lost." Gates' vision of television of the future was: "TV that will simply show what we want to see, when we want to see it. When we get home, the home computer will know who we are from our voice or our face. It will know what we want to watch, our favourite programmes, or what the kids shouldn't be allowed to see."

News source: Yahoo! News





There are 126 additional comments
Advertisement
(6 replies) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #1 Posted by JadeWolf324 on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:00
man...whatever he's smoking...i want some.
Quote this comment #1.1 Posted by rbet on 14 Jul 2004 - 09:41
Quote this comment #1.2 Posted by SunnyB on 14 Jul 2004 - 10:47
Remember what he is saying.
Inside of 10 years, home entertainment systems will have
hundreds of gigabytes of local disk space to store movies and music.
Legally. These storage systems will be updated periodically to
contain the latest titles and will be available to the user on an
"on demand" basis. The menu will be updated as newer releases
are moved in and older releases are either deleted or moved to a
"classics" library storage.

Something like Dish Network's Pay Per View but with local storage
and a menu of your chosing.

How many Favorite movie releases can be stored on a 200Gb disk?
20 to 25 full movies? If the user wants a larger library they only need to install
another disk or a larger disk. A 400Gb SATA drive will hold a lot of titles.

AHHHH, the future is bright.
Quote this comment #1.3 Posted by shao on 14 Jul 2004 - 10:56
the future's bright.. until you want to take the movie you've purchased to a friend's house to watch, or to view it in your laptop whilst you're travelling somewhere.. then the mpaa are in our faces telling us to go screw fair use.

thanks.
Quote this comment #1.4 Posted by briangw on 14 Jul 2004 - 12:05
by the time this happens, portable media will be very cheap and very fast.
Quote this comment #1.5 Posted by redFX on 14 Jul 2004 - 13:45
What quality are we talking about here? 20-25 movies on a 200 gb disk is saying about 8-10 gigs per movie. Thats ok if you're doing DVD quality but since in 10 years, everything will be HDTV and beyond HDTV, its going to be more like 10-20 gigs a movie for top quality.

Not that it matters because in 10 years, 1 Tbyte drives will be the norm. The future is indeed bright!
Quote this comment #1.6 Posted by jameswjrose on 14 Jul 2004 - 14:47
>>Not that it matters because in 10 years, 1 Tbyte drives will be the norm. The future is indeed bright!

If I were to do the math based on how much storage space 10 years ago (approx 1 gig in 94) compared with today (1/3 TB) then in 10 years I would have many many petabytes.

And you're right, HDTV will need much more storage space... but with 1TB costing $800 (Drive Quote) right now, storage space will not be an issue.

Also, as for taking a movie to a friend's house... think TIVO, BitTourent, etc. We'll be able to transfer files directly.

Peace,
James Rose
New York City
(2 replies) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #2 Posted by altermind on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:07
same here

I give it at least 15 to 20 years before we get rid of media like this
Quote this comment #2.1 Posted by Varsity on 14 Jul 2004 - 06:01
Which is exactly what they said about CDs, which are dying out too.
Quote this comment #2.2 Posted by shao on 14 Jul 2004 - 08:48
more like cd sales are dying off without anything decent in place to replace them.. where's the much touted dvd audio?

with dvd sales so high compared to vhs, and with it continuing to grow year after year i don't personally see people wanting to give up their movie collections, and home movies written to dvd. the benefits from vhs->dvd were obvious and the technology was/is cheap enough for a lot of people to want it. Really there needs to be another generational technological jump to make consumers want to ditch old players and movies for a newer technology. Maybe when dvd recorders become mass market and the desire for greater capicty discs take off.
(1 reply) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #3 Posted by nX07 on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:09
LoL I think his visions are to closed base. I can see that in maybe, 30, 40 years. But come on, Computers that will know you by face & voice, and TV Being pure choice.

There goes the economy everyone. (Selective TV: No Ads + Few Show selection for fewer people, lower ratings + cable company billing methods = No way for television stations to pay off there fees, shows drasticly cut off, actors loosing jobs, hollywood falling apart, cable company billing can ether sky-rocket or stay the same, tho ether way you'd be loosing on the deal.

I can see that the DVD-Media/style we have a.t.m will be obsolete in 10 years, but with Blu-Ray (Not DVD Per say, but he says it will be obsolete becuase of the actual physical properties: sctraching/pastic/round, etc.) well - thats the Blu-Ray as well, which will replace DVD+/-ROM and probabally HD.
Quote this comment #3.1 Posted by mram on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:19
It's a shift to on-demand methodology.

Have you taken a vacation anywhere recently? Have you seen the systems avaliable in hotels? Are you in a market where your cable system offers on-demand rentals (not just pay-per-view, but actual 24 hour rentals of movies to stop/start/pause/rewind)?

Imagine your cable box as a mini computer. It's gotten vastly better in 10 years. Megabit bandwidth is already travelling on that same copper, if not 10s of megabits. Streaming movies are easy; it's being done now.

The only thing left is to logically tie rentals to equipment. With the cable company it's already done ... you can only view it on your cable box. For computers, it's a bit harder. You can already "rent" movies on the internet via streaming. The only reason it doesn't exist in a higher demand is due to a distributors fear that the property will be redistributed more easily because of the medium.

This kind of fear never existed in any practical sense with VHS/Betamax. Unless you had a recording shop, there's no way you could meaningfully copy, sell, distribute tapes in a speedy enough fashion to really hurt the market. But now, all I need to do is run a program, go to sleep, and voila, by morning I've got 10 new movies. And sending them to 100 friends is easy... dvd burning is easy ... etc.

Bill isn't stressing the decline of the DVD as that'll probably always be around in some form ... probably replace the floppy, actually, as a more permanent computer fixture ... but what he is saying is that the desire for a DVD will be so diminished in 10 years as to be non-viable. Who wants a DVD when it's basically available by a click of the mouse?

Anyhow that's some fuel for discussion.
(3 replies) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #4 Posted by bangbang023 on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:09
I'd say he's pretty close. Look how fast vhs lost its place in the market. 20 years and DVD has been out for a while now.
Quote this comment #4.1 Posted by werejag on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:35
vhs is still here. look at floppies they are still around and cd/dvd booting has been out for ages
Quote this comment #4.2 Posted by bilbobaggins on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:53
Well, not exactly I mean yes, they are around but for what exactly ? I myself don't have an FDD in my computers since (let me think) 1999, almost full 5 years, and I know many of my friends don't have or use them either.

What I want to say is we tend to keep technology parts whic connects us to the "past" mainly for fear (I also have an FDD and a load of older hw parts locked up someplace). For fear that some day I won't be able to access my "old" stuff. But for me, that's it.

Sometimes I just wonder how many hw parts will I stock up till I'll get 50
Quote this comment #4.3 Posted by Knight' on 14 Jul 2004 - 06:38
Nope the floppy will never die, they come in very handy.
(2 replies) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #5 Posted by tiagosilva29 on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:12
I think that Bill has something on the sleeve...

Last edited by 55115 on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:18
Quote this comment #5.1 Posted by g33kb0y on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:06

Mail

Agenda

Planner
QUOTE
I think that Bill has something on the sleeve...

maybe something up it, too?
Quote this comment #5.2 Posted by Grope for Luna on 14 Jul 2004 - 11:52
of his red pendleton shirt?
(3 replies) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #6 Posted by OSUKid7 on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:13
Meh, I hope he's right. Can only imagine a world where everything is connected and you'll have on demand video instantly available.
Quote this comment #6.1 Posted by markjensen on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:19
I'm not such a big fan of his visions. Too Orwellian for me. Everything goes through "Big Brother" Microsoft, uses Microsoft products, and a closed Microsoft format...
Quote this comment #6.2 Posted by mram on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:22
My cable provider already does what Bill is already talking about. On-demand 24 hour movies. This "pie" is already out there, and trust me, Microsoft and everyone else will want a piece of it. And everyone will have the same concerns.

Bandwidth is the one thing that everyone seems to have more of in houses today. Today it's more likely that you have an internet connection in your house than cable television! Imagine in 10 years what this will be like. 10 years ago I was happy with a 14.4k connection to a private ISP. (ok well, maybe 28..
Quote this comment #6.3 Posted by Mav Phoenix on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:52
OneSoft™
Quote this comment Reply to this comment #7 Posted by Alistero on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:13
10 years? i dont think so. DVD's are to mainstream to be taken off so quickly
But i do see alot more interactive TV. where youd just select what tv show youd like to see at that moment, instead of waiting for 7:30 to come along.
(2 replies) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #8 Posted by ksalter on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:17
Just look back 10 years and see where we are now...

1994: still on VHS, cable was a mere 20-30 channels, audio CDs had no copy protection, no satellite TV (small dish), cell phones were just getting popular (still bulky and very expensive). computers were no better than fancy calculators, there was no Windows 95... need I go on? We've come a long way, baby.
Quote this comment #8.1 Posted by Spitfire_x86 on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:23
CDs are still going strong and CD copy-protection isn't an advancement.
Quote this comment #8.2 Posted by panacea on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:57
omg einstein
cds are still going and pcs, as well as cell phones are continuesly evolving. in fact so is cable tv and satelite, as well as windsow os. nothing revolutionary have really happend.

but to completely stop using dvds in 10 years from now would be revolutionary and i hardly think its possible. blu ray disks are still coming out so are high speed dvd burners.

well as least in 10 years we may finally dump cds and floppies
(2 replies) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #9 Posted by jwoair23 on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:18
what the heck cds arent even out of date yet!
Quote this comment #9.1 Posted by Galley on 14 Jul 2004 - 06:36
16-bit audio CDs became "out-of-date" in 1999 with the introduction of the Super Audio CD (SACD), codevoped by Sony and Phillips, who invented the original CD.
One hybrid SACD can hold both the stereo and 5.1 multi-channel version of the album, as well as a standard 16-bit audio version that will play in any CD player.

http://www.superaudio-cd.com/
Quote this comment #9.2 Posted by Spitfire_x86 on 14 Jul 2004 - 06:53
Oh yea, SACD and SACD players are now selling more than Audio CD and Audio CD players
(1 reply) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #10 Posted by brianshapiro on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:18
I dont think people would want to give up removeable media, just like i dont think people want to give up on hard drives and access everything through the net (what others have been predicting). Though i hope there will be a move to smaller, and less damageable media like memory cards

Last edited by 8493 on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:31
Quote this comment #10.1 Posted by StarSabers on 14 Jul 2004 - 05:21
Exactly. Personaly, I don't want to talk to my computer like it's a human ... I'd rather type and click than tell it to click okay for me. That's just me ... make you feel REALLY stupid, essepcially when someone walks in and your just talking. lol
Quote this comment Reply to this comment #11 Posted by neufuse on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:20
we're still not rid of CD-ROMS where about 10yrs ago were gona be "obsolete" in the "near future" and we still are using them like crazy...
Quote this comment Reply to this comment #12 Posted by NASCAR6Frd on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:21
Yea, well look at Back to the Future from the eighties. It's been twenty years, and I still don't have my tiny pizzas that expand to full size in the oven. Give me my pizza!

I know, that's just a movie that was done for fun. But honestly - we've been using compact discs for decades, and there hasn't really been THAT much change to them. You really think that DVDs are going to be obsolete in an even smaller amount of time? Dream on...
(7 replies) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #13 Posted by Spitfire_x86 on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:24
What about 640 kb memory being enogh? Billy said that and he was very wrong.

And I think Billy's wrong about this, too.
Quote this comment #13.1 Posted by Cephas on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:35
Nope... he never said that.
Quote this comment #13.2 Posted by dmd3x on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:35
I beg to differ, he did say something like that there would never be need for more than 640K of RAM!
Quote this comment #13.3 Posted by Cephas on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:48
http://hotwired.wired.com/netizen/97/02/katz3a.html

QUOTE
QUESTION: "I read in a newspaper that in l981 you said '640K of memory should be enough for anybody.' What did you mean when you said this?"

ANSWER: "I've said some stupid things and some wrong things, but not that. No one involved in computers would ever say that a certain amount of memory is enough for all time."
Quote this comment #13.4 Posted by Slugbait on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:22
You might as well start arguing Moore's Law now. Everyone thinks Gordon Moore said that the doubling of transistors (CPU speed) occurred every 18 months.

But he never said 18 months. His exact words were "every couple of years".

It's funny how so many people insist that urban legend is true...
Quote this comment #13.5 Posted by bilbobaggins on 14 Jul 2004 - 05:00
Thing is, Moore was hell right for so many long years. But his statement was based on a very good knwledge of tr. technology. This sentence got taught in schools for god's sake Technology eventually gets over him, but hey, that doesn't make him any lesser.

In case of Gates ? Well, he made an exaggeratedly confident (how mildly put) guess, nothing more. His statements have the only goal of influencing people and development.

In my world Gates and Moore are not mentioned on the same page.
Quote this comment #13.6 Posted by cdcase on 14 Jul 2004 - 11:22
bilbo - exactly.

Bill Gates has these goals in mind whenever he opens his mouth within range of others:

1) influence people to do what I want
2) control
3) self-inflation
4) profit!

Those are his primary motivators. They have been for a few decades now. Every word that comes out of his mouth should be evaluated against those 4 objectives before you accept or reject what he says.
Quote this comment #13.7 Posted by Shining Arcanine on 14 Jul 2004 - 16:54
QUOTE
bilbo - exactly.

Bill Gates has these goals in mind whenever he opens his mouth within range of others:

1) influence people to do what I want
2) control
3) self-inflation
4) profit!

Those are his primary motivators. They have been for a few decades now. Every word that comes out of his mouth should be evaluated against those 4 objectives before you accept or reject what he says.


So where does the Gates Foundation fit in to that? The donations to africa to fight aids?
(6 replies) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #14 Posted by musicmaster on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:25
Bill gates sucks really, he ha no clue about anything
Quote this comment #14.1 Posted by KoNStaNtiN on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:07
Yup, thats why he is the richest man on earth
Quote this comment #14.2 Posted by Slugbait on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:23
Second richest.
Quote this comment #14.3 Posted by bangbang023 on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:30
Yeah, that disproves konstantin's point
Quote this comment #14.4 Posted by Slugbait on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:40
QUOTE
Yeah, that disproves konstantin's point
Sorry. I didn't notice that he made one...
Quote this comment #14.5 Posted by jtl on 14 Jul 2004 - 06:08
That report was incorrect. Read here.
Quote this comment #14.6 Posted by KoNStaNtiN on 14 Jul 2004 - 14:52
Everyone know that was a fake report
(4 replies) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #15 Posted by jerry on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:29
10 years ? Anybody could have said that. I said a couple of years back that CDROMs will be obsolute in 10 years and we're already more than half way there ...
Quote this comment #15.1 Posted by markjensen on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:32
Except that vendors were selling PCs with CD-ROMs in them back in 1990. So I guess that they have already exceeded 10 years, and are still very common.
Quote this comment #15.2 Posted by g33kb0y on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:11
How many computers can you buy with a CDROM anymore? Most come standard with a CDRW / DVD drive anymore - with a simple upgrade to a DVD-RW +/-. Only your most basic, run-of-the-mill or lower machines have merely a standard CDROM. Heck, even servers are shipping with DVD-ROM drives now!
Quote this comment #15.3 Posted by the_legendary_gunjack on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:45
QUOTE (#1.2)
How many computers can you buy with a CDROM anymore? Most come standard with a CDRW / DVD drive anymore - with a simple upgrade to a DVD-RW +/-. Only your most basic, run-of-the-mill or lower machines have merely a standard CDROM. Heck, even servers are shipping with DVD-ROM drives now!

hmmm, but what exactly do you think it is that we put into cdrw drives? omg me thinks its... CD'S!! And why put an operating system that takes 695MB (XP, 2000, 9X) on a DVD? It would be a waste of money unless they made it with office XP and like photoshop all on the same DVD. Other than that it is complete OVERKILL!!!
Quote this comment #15.4 Posted by jerry on 14 Jul 2004 - 05:25
QUOTE
And why put an operating system that takes 695MB (XP, 2000, 9X) on a DVD?

Because CDs are on their way out. Seriously the cost to manufacture a CD and a DVD are almost equivalent. Its only that software companies/game companies want more of our dough just because they put it on a DVD - Thats called "convenience" according to them and I call that "BS". Sorry for going off topic there.
Quote this comment Reply to this comment #16 Posted by tommie on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:31
Bill is right.
(6 replies) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #17 Posted by denzilla on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:31
Bill's vision falls in line with what all Corporations want. They want a system where there aren't hard copies of anything. They want you to have to pull it all of the web on damand. If there is no permanent form of storage for the consumer, then piracy would die. I think the days of an "open" PC are going to end at some point. DRM and the other greed inspired garbage is only the beginning. They're basically terraforming our minds, slowly but surely warming us up to this way of life. The first copy protected CD topping the charts was no doubt a victory for these *******s.
Quote this comment #17.1 Posted by werejag on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:41
and that is where open source and the hacker community will succeed. while the masses get brain washed into what the microsoft wants, we will find ways to stay a step ahead
Quote this comment #17.2 Posted by Spitfire_x86 on 14 Jul 2004 - 06:52
QUOTE (#17.0)
The first copy protected CD topping the charts was no doubt a victory for these *******s.

This is not a victory for these *******s. People who bought that CD, bought for the music, not for copy protection. And if some of them wanted to rip/duplicate their CD, they surely did with some extra tools
Quote this comment #17.3 Posted by Shining Arcanine on 14 Jul 2004 - 16:59
QUOTE (#17.0)
Bill's vision falls in line with what all Corporations want. They want a system where there aren't hard copies of anything. They want you to have to pull it all of the web on damand. If there is no permanent form of storage for the consumer, then piracy would die. I think the days of an "open" PC are going to end at some point. DRM and the other greed inspired garbage is only the beginning. They're basically terraforming our minds, slowly but surely warming us up to this way of life. The first copy protected CD topping the charts was no doubt a victory for these *******s.

So why does Microsoft's own software allow you to rip and burn CDs?
Quote this comment #17.4 Posted by denzilla on 15 Jul 2004 - 02:02
Because it suits them for now....
Quote this comment #17.5 Posted by denzilla on 15 Jul 2004 - 02:06
post deleted
Quote this comment #17.6 Posted by denzilla on 15 Jul 2004 - 02:08
Yes it is a victory for them. It shows that the public is more accepting of having less control over what they buy then in the past.
Quote this comment Reply to this comment #18 Posted by Dallas on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:32
i agree with bill, that sounds like a good idea,vision
Quote this comment Reply to this comment #19 Posted by Webgraph on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:38
Haha! That idea is farfetched since we will always need some way to store information on some kind of removable media for when the networks may be shut down! Yes, DVD's may be nearing obsoletion in maybe a decade, but Gates' vision is not a true replacement.
(1 reply) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #20 Posted by aaroniekins on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:45
the future of piracy is gettin slim...
Quote this comment #20.1 Posted by werejag on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:46
if u say so...
Quote this comment Reply to this comment #21 Posted by werejag on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:46
the only thing that i can see that wont be here is microsoft. dvds like floppies will be here for another 20 years
(2 replies) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #22 Posted by naap51stang on 14 Jul 2004 - 03:50
We only need 640k of ram........
Microsoft Bob will be the future.......



Quote this comment #22.1 Posted by brianshapiro on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:00
3d accelerated microsoft bob
Quote this comment #22.2 Posted by petroid on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:10
QUOTE (#22.1)
3d accelerated microsoft bob

Running in 640k of ram? That must be some tight code
(1 reply) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #23 Posted by nic on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:14
mram said:
QUOTE
This kind of fear never existed in any practical sense with VHS/Betamax. Unless you had a recording shop, there's no way you could meaningfully copy, sell, distribute tapes in a speedy enough fashion to really hurt the market.


that reminds me of a ghostwriter episode (i'm pretty sure it was ghostwriter on pbs), where one of the main characters uncles was distributing copied movies (on VHS) and ghostwriter and the gang had to stop him. I think his entire recording shop burned down by the end..

I think it is very possible for us to see person and voice recognition really strongly in 10 years. MPEG-7 is currently being researched and developed very rapidly and it promises these things. And what about the upcoming Internet2 technology that boasts downloading a "full-length DVD movie in about seven seconds."

Seems pretty likely from a technology view point. Now, will it be adopted that soon (by people, government, and commerce). ???
Quote this comment #23.1 Posted by enzo on 14 Jul 2004 - 20:39
I loved that show.
(2 replies) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #24 Posted by nekrosoft13 on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:21
how the hell would a tv know what i want to see

brain implanted chips?

**** you bill,
Quote this comment #24.1 Posted by Slugbait on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:35
Let me introduce you to a little friend I like to call TiVo...
Quote this comment #24.2 Posted by Alistero on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:37
he didn't say the tv would know, just that you would be able to choose a tv show and watch it, without having to wait for when it usually comes on.
Quote this comment Reply to this comment #25 Posted by qdave on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:30
10 years....neah!!!!
maybe 20.

Quote this comment Reply to this comment #26 Posted by oik on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:39
the 4.7gb dvd will be gone within 5 years... the dvd format as a whole? hmm...
(3 replies) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #27 Posted by xpablo on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:41
No everything will be like it was on Star Trek NG. Computers will be done by voice command. Dvd's will be obsolete like Vinyl Records are now, but in 15 years not 10.
Quote this comment #27.1 Posted by Cephas on 14 Jul 2004 - 05:20
I don't think voice-driven interfaces will ever be widespread. The technology has existed for about 10 years now but talking to your computer while nobody else is present is just too awkward, and if there are others nearby then people will be annoyed by each other from all the chatter.
Quote this comment #27.2 Posted by saippua80 on 14 Jul 2004 - 07:20
That's just a matter of getting used to. When cell phones came people said they would never catch on because people don't want strangers to hear what they're talking on the phone. Today when you sit on a bus you can propably learn a lot more about a stranger than you would ever really want.
Quote this comment #27.3 Posted by riahc3 on 15 Jul 2004 - 23:41
Vinyl Records are not obsolete (theyre the big black ones right? lol)

Many clubs/DJs use it and i have Jay-Z's Blueprint 2 on a Vinyl
Quote this comment Reply to this comment #28 Posted by reddsoda on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:43
I think it all depends on how fast storage and bandwidth keep advancing.

QUOTE
"TV that will simply show what we want to see, when we want to see it. When we get home, the home computer will know who we are from our voice or our face. It will know what we want to watch, our favourite programmes, or what the kids shouldn't be allowed to see."


For all of you that love to bash Bill and Microsoft, hey it's not a bad vision to have is it? Look to see how fast Tivo's and PVR's have emerged. Is it likely to happen in 10 years, who knows (though people in Bill's position likely have a better gauge as they are presented the future every week from companies and investors). Will CD's, DVD's and floppy disks still be around in 10 years? Probably in some capacity(though prob not floppies in any measureable quantity). Heck, tape cassettes are still around.

My personal opinion is he's probably wrong as the bandwidth won't be there for the massess as HD DVD is 8 times greater than current DVD's (720p or 1080i which is what most people will have in the homes by then). Even the best current options aren't good enough. Hopefully Bill has seen stuff from Japan or Silicon Valley or where ever that will give us his vision.
(2 replies) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #29 Posted by sodapop on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:47
Does bill gates want to replace all my 300+ dvds with whatever comes out next? I already replaced all my vhs with dvd and it's too expensive to do it all again.

No way gates...
Quote this comment #29.1 Posted by aaroniekins on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:49
vhs still aint completely dead
so i say bill on crack
Quote this comment #29.2 Posted by reddsoda on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:55
That's why I've stopped buying DVD's except for a few must have's a year. HD DVD, once it finally arrives, will be worth upgrading to. The movies remastered in HD from HBO and Showtime look incredible. Absolutely incredible. I sometimes even watch bad movies in HD because it looks so good.

It pisses me off every time I watch an HD movie on TV and it looks so much better than my DVD copy. Stuff that streams over my coax cable looks better than what I can currently buy in media? Wtf?

sp
Quote this comment Reply to this comment #30 Posted by ernicoats on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:53
no DVDs what will happen to the Xbox oh noooo lol
(2 replies) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #31 Posted by QuasaR on 14 Jul 2004 - 04:58
Gates is missing the point. People like collecting thing. Books, bugs, stamps, coins, bottle tops, DVD's whatever. People feel proud of their collection. You can't change that.
Quote this comment #31.1 Posted by reddsoda on 14 Jul 2004 - 05:07
True. Though he did say obsolete, not that they will disappear from store shelves. On demand will just be the standard method such as DVD's are pretty much the standard now over VHS. My post above still stands as I don't think it will happen that soon but I wouldn't mind it happening in 10 years.
Quote this comment #31.2 Posted by werejag on 14 Jul 2004 - 05:29
as for me i will have a hard copy of what i buy. this anti fair use that bill wants is insane
Quote this comment Reply to this comment #32 Posted by rocks1985 on 14 Jul 2004 - 05:01
in 2014, the standard new cell phone will have at least 20 gigabytes of storage, so 10 gigabytes could be devoted to a person's music library, leaving 10 for other media like 2 or 3 feature length movies, a few TV shows, and PIM data. If people wanted to put everything on their cell phones, they could just buy the 40 to 80 gigabyte models... no need for CD's or DVD's...
(1 reply) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #33 Posted by djurbino on 14 Jul 2004 - 05:06

Bill, you've spent ten years "revolutionising" office, and all you have to show for it is a talking paperclip, and that doesn't even work. What makes you think you have more than a snowball's chance in hell of getting these pigs up into the sky?

Quote this comment #33.1 Posted by reddsoda on 14 Jul 2004 - 05:11
Not to defend Bill's opinion but he does have a multibillion dollar company including billions himself. Plus I'm sure he sees stuff from MS research and countless other companies around the world on new technology.
Quote this comment Reply to this comment #34 Posted by Skyfrog on 14 Jul 2004 - 05:08
As long as they don't stop making laserdiscs I'm happy.
(2 replies) Quote this comment Reply to this comment #35 Posted by ork on 14 Jul 2004 - 05:11
I respect man's vision even some of them may not see the light of day or take more time, but atleast he dreams of being able to do new things.

Do you guys know what amazing stuff happen at MS Research. It is seperate division and the technology these guys protype is just amazing. obviously it doesnt come out as a product, but bits of pieces of it makes it into products. Some imp features in Longhorn are from MS Research.

I am sure when billg talks about these visions, he might have seen a working prototype in MS Research. It would take more than microsoft effort to make it into mainstream but i am hell as sure he is not smoking crack.
Quote this comment #35.1 Posted by bilbobaggins on 14 Jul 2004 - 05:23
Well, I eventually get to see some snippets of ms research outcomes on conferences (I'm in a specific area - which I willl not disclose - so I get to hear from research they do in these areas). What I can tell on these is that they don't really ever tell their newest ideas (understandably most of it is kept private).

But what I hate about them big