Analyst: iPod sales hit 23.5 million by 2006
Posted by malebolgia on 24 November 2004 - 17:14 · 56 comments & 4529 views
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#1 Posted by oddity on 24 Nov 2004 - 17:18
- I think they might, i don't know about "Critical Masses" though.
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(6 replies)
#2 Posted by Prism128 on 24 Nov 2004 - 17:24
- w00t
iPod rocks
now if only they can increase the battery life to about 2x as long as it is atm, and release Mac OS X for windows comps!!
w00t!! -
#2.2 Posted by theyarecomingforyou on 24 Nov 2004 - 21:28
QUOTE For this response you need to be shot.
Actually, both of those things would be great... though only one would be practical for Apple to achieve.-
#2.3 Posted by Zenith on 25 Nov 2004 - 10:36
- apple will never introduce Mac OS X for windows. If they do, i will use Linux or similar for the rest of my computing days.
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#2.4 Posted by kingius on 25 Nov 2004 - 11:42
- Why would they ever want to?
If you want OS X go buy a Mac. You wont regret it! -
#2.5 Posted by theyarecomingforyou on 25 Nov 2004 - 19:55
QUOTE If you want OS X go buy a Mac. You wont regret it!
Your wallet might.
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#3 Posted by Hills420 on 24 Nov 2004 - 17:25
- I need to replace my battery with one of the extended life batteries.
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#4 Posted by versiondub on 24 Nov 2004 - 17:35
- 4th gen ipods have the perfect battery length for me. I only listen to my ipod for 2-3 hours a day at most
and even if I'm skipping songs and have the backlight on, there's still way over half left by the time I get home to charge it again.
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(6 replies)
#5 Posted by NinjaMonkey82 on 24 Nov 2004 - 17:38
- Now I love Apple and like to see them doing well but these numbers seem off. That seems like an awful lot of units to be shipped. While the iPod is generating mainstream appeal I don't think the numbers will grow that much in a year.
Also why the 2% for the iTMS? That seems low considering the prediction of so many iPods being shipped. Maybe this article assumes other stores will be selling songs for the iPod. -
#5.1 Posted by dp123 on 24 Nov 2004 - 18:14
- Seem rather conservative to me. iPod sales have been increasing at enormous growth rates. They are likely to sell 4 million this quarter, putting them near 10 million this year. I would expect close to 20 million next year, and better than 24 million in 2006.
If you check out his numbers, he isn't looking at Apple individually as I am... He is predicting 1.3 billion PCs by 2010... Then predicting music players will have 7% penetration to the world's population, putting the music player market at 500 million. And he is predicting that Apple can hold on to 20% of it.
QUOTE Wolf's analysis and raised target price are not dependent on an iPod halo effect, nor on Apple maintaining an 80 per cent share in the hard drive-based music player market and 70 per cent of the music download market. Nor does it depend on any future iPod flash product release.
Last edited by 9953 on 24 Nov 2004 - 18:26 -
#5.2 Posted by NinjaMonkey82 on 24 Nov 2004 - 18:36
- You maybe right. iPod shipments have gone up every quarter but I still don't think any MP3 player (as of right now) will gain that much appeal over the course of a year.
The thing that made the Walkman a hit was that it played a standard physical format you could go out to a store a buy and use without any technical knowledge.
There are still tons of people that don't know that they can rip their CDs to their computers hard drive. Though Apple has done a great job of making things very simple. -
#5.3 Posted by dp123 on 24 Nov 2004 - 18:39
- "There are still tons of people that don't know that they can rip their CDs to their computers hard drive."
I'm not sure you're living in the same decade as I am. -
#5.4 Posted by NinjaMonkey82 on 24 Nov 2004 - 20:02
- Last week we had a luncheon at work and there were a bunch of us sitting around and I pulled out my iPod. I had to explain to about three people it was possible to copy your CD collection to your computer. They knew about P2P but didn't know you could copy your own discs.
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#5.6 Posted by dp123 on 24 Nov 2004 - 21:48
- "They knew about P2P but didn't know you could copy your own discs."
And, again, I don't know what decade these people are living in. But please read the article. We are only talking about 7% penetration. We are already at 2-3%. If you don't think that by 2008, 7% is achievable or that people will know what most of us have known for 5 years, that's your problem.
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#6 Posted by pixlnet on 24 Nov 2004 - 17:59
- Yeah, his predictions are way off. I think Apple will completely dominate this market for a while. Flash and hard-drive based players will still sell like hot-cakes. Apple has done with the mp3 player what Coke has done with it's cola. iPod is reffered to as mp3 player just like Coke is referred to as soda.
Anyways, the iPod is pretty cool. It's not very hard to copy, though. iTunes is a different story. That piece of software, in my mind, will keep the player successful with a market share above 50% for the next four years. Who knows what Apple and the rest of the market has up their sleaves though. A change of mind by record labels can definetely stir things up quite a bit. -
#6.1 Posted by sheer on 24 Nov 2004 - 20:29
- If Apple produce a flash-based iPod I can see it being pretty much game over for the other manufacturers out there, especially if they can price it somewhere between $125-$175 for one with say 1g of memory at the upper end of that price point.
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(4 replies)
#7 Posted by Magallanes on 24 Nov 2004 - 18:07
- There are not a valid reason to think that the Ipod will rulz in the future, cause Ipod don't have some "special feature" in comparison with their competitors.
In fact, portable videoplayers will be the future and Ipod still don't support it. -
#7.1 Posted by dp123 on 24 Nov 2004 - 18:20
QUOTE Microsoft argues that consumers want choice in their online music purchases, and will eventually favour non-Apple devices. Wolf declares that the Redmond company's assessment, "ignores reality".
Wolf does not believe music lovers care about music formats when they buy songs, and that most songs are ripped from CDs or downloaded elsewhere. He argues that consumers don't care which online service they use, as long as it has what they want and is compatible with their device, and adds that content will not drive a single standard service to emerge, as music content will be identically-available on multiple services.
"There are no compelling economic reasons why Microsoft’s Windows Media Audio music software platform should end up dominating this market just because it’s been adopted by a host of online music stores and music players", he writes.
"In our opinion, the only way Windows Media could emerge as the dominant platform is if Apple stops innovating its iTunes software and the iPod," he states.
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#7.2 Posted by macrosslover on 24 Nov 2004 - 18:38
- so the Lord has spoken and that's it?
just because Apple is dominating right now doesn't mean they will always do it, same with MS and windows. sometimes people just want something different.
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#7.3 Posted by dp123 on 24 Nov 2004 - 18:42
- The Lord? No, just responding to "no valid reason." The fact is: just the opposite. There is no valid reason to expect a change. People say they want choice: they have choice and are choosing Apple. People say they want cheap: they have cheap and are buying from Apple. People say they want more features: they have more features and they are buying from Apple.
Same thing with MS and Windows? So when did people decide they want something different and eliminate their market dominance? Same thing indeed.
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(2 replies)
#8 Posted by Zolk on 24 Nov 2004 - 18:09
- More choices, More music, More devices
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#8.1 Posted by dp123 on 24 Nov 2004 - 18:19
- Is anyone buying into this program?
The same 36 players and 8 stores have been there since launch. Of those 36 players, a good portion of them are the same device. If you counted all of the capacities of each generation and type of iPod, you'd have almost as many players.
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(1 reply)
#9 Posted by aethier on 24 Nov 2004 - 18:12
- nice to see you have all become prof. market analysts
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#10 Posted by Fubar on 24 Nov 2004 - 18:42
- nice to see analyst still get paid for coming up with complete twaddle , wish i was one
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#11 Posted by PR. on 24 Nov 2004 - 19:24
- By 3160 Apple will be selling 2bn iPods per month. - based on me plucking figures out the air...
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(3 replies)
#12 Posted by DJ Prem on 24 Nov 2004 - 19:29
- WOW!!! I won't be one of those owners
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#12.1 Posted by Timmah on 24 Nov 2004 - 20:24
- Nor will I! My iRiver H-140 has MORE features, LARGER battery life and DOESN'T require bloatware to manage my music!
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(6 replies)
#13 Posted by deron dantzler on 24 Nov 2004 - 22:25
- I know PERSONALLY (see in person often not an Internet friend) only 1 person with an I-Pod, yet I know at least 7 or 8 people with MP3 players, about 5 of which are alternatives to I-Pod like the Creative Zen.
MS will beat the I-Pod just like the PC beat the Mac. Wait and see. Bill Gates predicted it. People like more options, more file formats, and the hardware for other players has surpassed the I-Pod technology (more space, battery life, etc.). Apple will never win. -
#13.2 Posted by STV on 24 Nov 2004 - 23:56
- @deron dantzler: I agree. Microsoft is beating PalmSource and PalmOne in the mobile devices market, just as it beat out apple in the PC market, and hopefully Microsoft will beat apple in the Music Service and wma/mp3 Player market.
STV -
#13.3 Posted by pixlnet on 25 Nov 2004 - 03:12
- Deron, you're dead wrong. The name iPod is synonomous with mp3 player. My professors talk about iPod. Kelly and Regis were talking about it this morning. iPod already has a unique consumer culture associated with it.
I think it's quite embarrassing when Microsoft says to it's employees, "Just copy iTunes." A few months later a poorly designed webstore opens. Truth is, Microsoft has been doing a lousy job trying to be "cool". They've been late on practically everything in this area.
Napster is the only music service that is somewhat competitive to this day. I don't really care if Creative spends 100 million dollars on advertising. They're marketing a product that comes with poor software, and blatently rips off the look of an iPod. Consumers know what an iPod looks like because it's very unique. Everyone knows the Zen is imitation. Nobody likes imitation crap.
Bill Gates can try to predict as much of the future as he wants. He's been doing a piss poor job of it. Microsoft has been entering consumer markets way late these days.
I think people really just like simply, easy to use software. Onlime music stores only sell one format anyway, so it really defeats the purpose of more file formats. AAC/WMA same difference. Bottom line is iTunes and iPod are the best package deal out there. Customers just want something that's fun and works. Apple has done a tremendous job on designing both of these products to work together. -
#13.4 Posted by the_snitch on 25 Nov 2004 - 07:54
- you can tell just how clueless your are by the way you refer to it as the I-pod
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#13.5 Posted by nifu on 26 Nov 2004 - 01:59
- the_snitch hit the nail on the head... he also hit the smiley face in the head.... with an arrow.... now im rambling...
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(3 replies)
#14 Posted by kravex on 25 Nov 2004 - 09:00
- And for what reason would I buy a MAC just because I've brought an I-pod?
because I wan't a computer I can't upgrade? Or maybe one with hardly any software for it?
Who knows... -
#14.1 Posted by pixlnet on 26 Nov 2004 - 03:54
- People are buying Macs because they are impressed with the iPod and iTunes. Face it, OS X and the software coming out of Apple is top notch. They don't have to upgrade their computer every week. Most consumers don't even upgrade hardware components in their computer because they just buy a new computer. If something breaks, a Mac is just as easy to fix as a PC. The components are almost identical.
Hardly any software? Please. Every major software title is available for the Mac. Office is actually better on the Mac than the PC version! Don't make an ignorant comment like that until you've done your research. -
#14.2 Posted by Smigit on 26 Nov 2004 - 18:05
- "They don't have to upgrade their computer every week"
you just have to pay for a new point release on a yearly basis lol
(im aware they are changing the release schedule from now on)
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#15 Posted by iconboy on 25 Nov 2004 - 15:26
- people that own irivers are to ipod users what ipod users are to people that "dont know they can rip their cds to their hdds"
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(1 reply)
#16 Posted by iconboy on 25 Nov 2004 - 15:32
- im not anti apple or anti ipod, im just pro underdog and at the moment, iriver and everyone else seem to be the under dogs. Oh and to the person who said MP3 was synonymous with ipod... just over a decade ago nintendo was synonymous with video games, netscape was sysnanymous with internet browsing and palm was synanymous with pdas. Errr... actually now sony and microsoft are fighting for VG domination, internet explorer has crushed netscape and windows mobile is killing palm... errr... i guess if the trend continues microsoft will take over...
which isnt a great thing either ..
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#16.1 Posted by pixlnet on 26 Nov 2004 - 03:59
- Interesting comment. Reason all that happened is because they stopped innovating their products. If iPod stops innovating like the comments said above, then they leave chance to every company waiting for the door to open. So yeah, right now they've got a great lead. It can change fast though, this is a whole new market.
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#17 Posted by DodgeViper on 26 Nov 2004 - 02:22
- I think that MS are going to start off with a pretty good mp3 player but people still going to favour the iPod, but a few generation MS mp3 player is completly changed and slowly people realise it's the superior mp3 player.
That's the only story I can think with MS, they very slowly gain market share even if they have to lose money.
At the moment nothing beats the iPod and I've been thinking of getting one but waiting for the 2nd gen mini with more space. When's it coming?
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(1 reply)
#18 Posted by iconboy on 26 Nov 2004 - 15:50
- M$ isnt gunna make their own Mp3 player, just like the PDA market, M$ will dominate the Mp3 player market using their software, Microsoft Mobile Media software will be used by the majority of companies eventually... its alreally happening with portable video offerings from creative, HP and iriver.
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#18.1 Posted by winmacguy on 27 Nov 2004 - 09:50
- Apple has always had portable video its called a Power Book, or in the cheaper version its called an iBook. Why would anyone want to walk around watching video on a 2inch screen anyway? I thought that the reason people bought 48" flat screens was so that that they could watch their DVDs on a LARGE screen.... with music it makes sense to have asmall portable device because you can walk around LISTENING to it wand watching other things like where your walking. You dont have to focus your attentions on a small screen.
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#19 Posted by DeepThought on 27 Nov 2004 - 16:44
- That guy talks pretty big for having "anal" is his title...
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#20 Posted by EduardValencia on 27 Nov 2004 - 23:33
- ipod rockz i agree
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#21 Posted by 23305004937369 on 28 Nov 2004 - 03:01
- sales go that high... BUT LOOK AT THERE STOCKS!
A leading Wall Street analyst expects 100 million Windows users to own iPods by 2008, Macworld UK is reporting. In a 27-page research note issued to clients, Needham & Co. analyst Charles Wolf claims the iPod will achieve 'critical mass' that could lead to a surge in Mac sales if only a nominal fraction of iPod users make a Mac purchase.
Voicing his belief that Apple--despite being tight lipped--will soon launch a flash-based iPod, Wolf wrote, "Although we expect hard drive players to capture an increasing share of the portable music player market, flash players should dominate the market through 2006." Wolf also described Apple's online and brick-&-mortar retail stores as "the unsung heroes of the Apple story." He further predicts that by 2010, iTunes Music Store market share will have fallen to just 2 per cent, but equates this figure to sales worth $800 million per year by then.
I feel I should point out that even if computer manufacturers start installing Firefox at their end, it won't make a jot of difference. The techies will be annoyed as it most likely won't be the absolute latest version when it gets to them, and they'll just have to update it anyway. The don't-cares, meantime, will still see their traditional big "e" and instinctively click on that. You could label Firefox "better internet" and it still wouldn't change the fact that people are creatures of habit.
The wonderful people over at spreadfirefox.com have managed to raise enough money for a full-page ad in the New York Times telling everyone of the joys of the browser. Unfortunately, as great as that is, I quite simply can't see it having that much of an effect. Remember the marketing push when Windows 95 came out? There was a massive TV campaign; billboards everywhere; Microsoft even subsidised The Times newspaper for a day, making it free for everyone - on the condition that it came with a special supplement telling of the wonders of this new operating system in terms ordinary people could understand. Firefox, unfortunately, isn't going to get anything like that amount of publicity. Sure, it's attracted a lot more attention than probably any other browser release in history. But think of where this attention has been focused - most, if not all, has been in tech magazines and on tech websites aimed at people who will already have heard of, and for the most part be using - or at least have tried out - Firefox.
So I've come to the conclusion that the only way to get Firefox used by the internet population at large, and to stop all these stupid spyware exploits and viruses clogging up our precious bandwidth every two days, is guerilla tactics. We need to employ our own version of Microsoft's campaign of the '90s, and simply remove any sign of Internet Explorer from their computers. I don't go in for the customising of Firefox to look exactly like Internet Explorer, partly because Firefox with Qute looks 100 times nicer than IE ever could. But this campaign could be very effective. It's simple: go onto your friend/flatmate/work colleague's computer and get rid of the desktop IE icon and any links from the start menu, quick-launch bar and so on. Install Firefox and make icons in exactly the same place as they'll simply go there to launch it anyway. But make sure you rename them to "Internet" - we don't want our dear friends getting confused, after all. This is something I've already tried out a couple of times and it seems pretty effective. If they're tech-savvy enough to notice that something is different, simply say: "Oh, it's a new version" - then show them some of the new features included. Hey, we're not saying they've been included by Microsoft!
This, I am convinced, is the only possible method for getting Firefox usage to account for even 20% of internet surfing. 50%? It's unrealistic, to be honest. But if it even gets to a fifth, that's enough users for web "developers" to stop simply building sites which will only operate in Internet Explorer. Losing around one in 20 customers, as at the moment, is bad enough; losing one in five would, quite simply, be unforgivable.