A site boasting to offer irreverent Apple news boasted some frankly irrelevant news yesterday. An opinion piece titled "
Will Vista Be the Last Operating System Microsoft Produces?" suggested that after Vista, that's it in the OS game for Microsoft. We urge you to read it.
The article argues that if they do put out another OS, it won't be until 2015. How, I hear you cry, could this be so? Quite simple, according to Apple Matters (we'd pun the name, but hey, you can over do it). First, Vista is just too big! Secondly, that web based Google OS is coming. Thirdly, that Microsoft have lost some employees to Google.
Leaving asides the 63,000+ people still working at Microsoft, the article is seriously flawed on a number of counts. A new OS every eight years?! Drive letters are an antiquated 'idea'? A web based Google OS? There's too much code in Vista?! Come on. A drastic re-write is what Microsoft claims to have done with Vista, and is one of the reasons why it has taken so long to deliver. The Google OS rumour has hopped from blog to blog with little attributable information to verify such a claim. One might claim with more credibility that Microsoft had done a far better job at building a 'web OS' with Live.com. Further, if reports are to be believed, Microsoft will soon be launching online storage too, well before the GDrive is launched. As Mr Cringley is so found of writing, we probably will see serious virutalisation of Windows on Mac in the near future - yet the scale is important.
Apple is very deft at getting journalists (and bloggers) to write very favourable articles about the company. However, this skill masks excellently the company's size in comparison to the competition. Apple's share of the PC market in 2005 was just 2.5%. That's correct. Whilst it might be coasting at 50+% in portable media player markets, if not a lot more, in the PC market, it is slim. Steve Jobs, mac god, has engineered a recovery in the company's financial fortunes but has seen a decline in the market share (4.6% in 1996, 2.2% 2005). We think you can probably do the maths here - hint - Linux isn't taking up more than a few percent. That's right - Windows has between 80 and 90% of the PC market.
Here is the reality. Vista development is plodding along. It's not going to be the re-birth of Christ, but it is going to be an improvement on Windows XP. It is exciting, and whilst it's very popular to say otherwise, it does come with new features. We're mid year, and Microsoft does not have any major product announcements at the moment. This is why it's gone a bit quiet; not because something has gone seriously wrong and they're hushing it up. Microsoft have a long list of items they've, well, dropped from Vista, and it doesn't seem plausible that they would simply waste that development. Expect a service pack with a number of features (WinFS, for example) after Vista has been launched.
Perhaps it is unfair to single out this article for attention, for it is but one in a series of articles doing a dis-service to bloggers online. A previous example is the 60% of Vista getting a re-write story which bounced around the web in March. We'll admit - true to name, we at Neowin are about as un-professional as it gets. However, we're not in the business of what can best be described as 'trashy think pieces', designed for the single aim of courting 'controversy' - and traffic. Writers might think that the short term gain from getting syndicated around the web is worth it - but we think not. We're here for our users, and think that running mis-leading articles is at best unhelpful, and at worst, down right mischievous. If online publications, bloggers included, want to be taken seriously as 'news' outlets, they need to be serious about their news.
As this affects you, dear reader, we'd like to hear your thoughts - so leave us a comment.
View: Apple Matters Article
The article argues that if they do put out another OS, it won't be until 2015. How, I hear you cry, could this be so? Quite simple, according to Apple Matters (we'd pun the name, but hey, you can over do it). First, Vista is just too big! Secondly, that web based Google OS is coming. Thirdly, that Microsoft have lost some employees to Google.
Leaving asides the 63,000+ people still working at Microsoft, the article is seriously flawed on a number of counts. A new OS every eight years?! Drive letters are an antiquated 'idea'? A web based Google OS? There's too much code in Vista?! Come on. A drastic re-write is what Microsoft claims to have done with Vista, and is one of the reasons why it has taken so long to deliver. The Google OS rumour has hopped from blog to blog with little attributable information to verify such a claim. One might claim with more credibility that Microsoft had done a far better job at building a 'web OS' with Live.com. Further, if reports are to be believed, Microsoft will soon be launching online storage too, well before the GDrive is launched. As Mr Cringley is so found of writing, we probably will see serious virutalisation of Windows on Mac in the near future - yet the scale is important.
Apple is very deft at getting journalists (and bloggers) to write very favourable articles about the company. However, this skill masks excellently the company's size in comparison to the competition. Apple's share of the PC market in 2005 was just 2.5%. That's correct. Whilst it might be coasting at 50+% in portable media player markets, if not a lot more, in the PC market, it is slim. Steve Jobs, mac god, has engineered a recovery in the company's financial fortunes but has seen a decline in the market share (4.6% in 1996, 2.2% 2005). We think you can probably do the maths here - hint - Linux isn't taking up more than a few percent. That's right - Windows has between 80 and 90% of the PC market.
Here is the reality. Vista development is plodding along. It's not going to be the re-birth of Christ, but it is going to be an improvement on Windows XP. It is exciting, and whilst it's very popular to say otherwise, it does come with new features. We're mid year, and Microsoft does not have any major product announcements at the moment. This is why it's gone a bit quiet; not because something has gone seriously wrong and they're hushing it up. Microsoft have a long list of items they've, well, dropped from Vista, and it doesn't seem plausible that they would simply waste that development. Expect a service pack with a number of features (WinFS, for example) after Vista has been launched.
Perhaps it is unfair to single out this article for attention, for it is but one in a series of articles doing a dis-service to bloggers online. A previous example is the 60% of Vista getting a re-write story which bounced around the web in March. We'll admit - true to name, we at Neowin are about as un-professional as it gets. However, we're not in the business of what can best be described as 'trashy think pieces', designed for the single aim of courting 'controversy' - and traffic. Writers might think that the short term gain from getting syndicated around the web is worth it - but we think not. We're here for our users, and think that running mis-leading articles is at best unhelpful, and at worst, down right mischievous. If online publications, bloggers included, want to be taken seriously as 'news' outlets, they need to be serious about their news.
As this affects you, dear reader, we'd like to hear your thoughts - so leave us a comment.

I think people are far more vocal about what Microsoft are putting out these days now that reliable, fast, cheap and attractive alternatives exist - people used to bemoan the state of Windows back in the 95/98 days but then it was just accepted that was how OS's behaved. Competition from the Linux and Apple people have proved otherwise since!
What is it with you people that have to complain because a staff member voiced his opinion about something? Does that make Neowin worthless to you or something? I just don't understand it.
Or maybe you just wanted to be cool and complain...
As for the article, the writer is completely missing the reasons for Microsoft's delays. One, they put Windows development on hold for about 18-24 months to get SP2 and other security fixes out the door (that is not likely to happen again), and two, Vista is a massive over-hall of the Windows platform. I don't expect even the next Major release of Windows (after the point release) to be as big as Vista.
And Acer's was around 2.7%, yet both companies are raking in the money.
Nothing the article didnt say
and the current Mac's can as well.
Really, OS X has around 100% market share of the computers it can run on, the only market segment where Windows and OS X are competing together, is the Mac segment (ignoring warez copies of OS X running on generic PC's), and in that segment OS X is beating Windows.
Apple does not target the average $399 Dell user, because a.) that user cannot afford to do pay say, $1,700 CDN for a decent mac, or b.) will not pay say, $1,700 CDN for a decently-equipped mac because they see it as simply a tool, and not a lifestlye marker.
Same reason Mercedes, BMW, Porsche, Gucci, Versace, all sell the way they do in North America. And yes, there are midrange Fords and GM autos that have larger and faster engines than say, their BMW counterparts. But they're still *not* Beemers. ;-)
Don't blame Steve for the Mac's "decrease" in market share. The Mac was in decline before he returned to Apple. Mac OS X didn't come out till 2001 and wasn't really ready for prime time till 2003. Market share has been steadily rising again since then.
Incidentally, Safari's share of the browser market is over 3%, so the Mac's installed base must be bigger than its market share. Its share of the home market is probably bigger again, as Mac users who have to use PCs at work effectively cancel out their "vote" for the Mac.
When it comes to chosing the OS for your home PC will you ever choose Mac (that has a really number of programs you can run on it) or Linux (that has almost the same problems)?
Just curious why linux has almost the same problems? You make it sound like more software is available on linux than OS X when the opposite is true.
http://darwinports.opendarwin.org/
"The DarwinPorts Project's main goal is to provide an easy way to install various open-source software products on the Darwin OS family (OpenDarwin, Mac OS X and Darwin)
There are currently about 3252 completed and usable ports, with more being added on a regular basis."
Altho its your opinion, it has to be one of the most stupid and troll sentences ive read...
I am not saying don't post them, it can be fun and interesting to read someones opinion on a topic, but in the current structure it seems like you are trying to make it appear as news, just give more general awareness to users, put "Editorial:" in front of the title or something.
If a lot of people are voicing their opinion against your editorials isn't that a sign that they aren't being implemented correctly? Or is our opinions to you worthless?
Actually I like the editorials and would ask that more be posted. Original content is good. It's not like it was expressed as factual knowledge, it was no doubt a single mans oppinion and it was a great read if you ask me.
edit: quoting really stuffs up the formatting of this site..the above post was originally 2.2 or something before I quoted it and it got moved to 8 and my reply to 8.1....ahh well. If it's going to mess up page formatting perhaps the quote button should be disabled for now (using the new swift theme here)
Last edited by Smigit on 22 Apr 2006 - 12:11
Its the fact that you're mixing (what should be) unbiased news with biased articles on the same page.
I am not saying don't post them, it can be fun and interesting to read someones opinion on a topic, but in the current structure it seems like you are trying to make it appear as news, just give more general awareness to users, put "Editorial:" in front of the title or something.
If a lot of people are voicing their opinion against your editorials isn't that a sign that they aren't being implemented correctly? Or is our opinions to you worthless?
Uh, hello... BIG red dot that says E D I T O R I A L.
Trolling again?
PCyr Increasing your post count again?
if you have nothing important to contribute. why post?
I believe I asked you a question first or are you just trying to evade my point? Way to fit the troll criteria even more.
Vista will trounce MacOS X. Over emotional OSS fundies users will still be hating MS. Then we, PC users, will get a new OS. Woot!
the other thing is that most everyone has been watching vista gradually change, and it's hard to see the big picture. for joe user knowing only win xp, vista will be awesome.
Having played with the latest build, I can say it's shaping up to be a very nice release. UAP still needs some work, but it's coming along nicely, and IE7 in that build is bloody fast, never seen it so fast TBH. Plus the visuals and the like, it's coming along and it should still impress.
I don't agree with this guy and I'm not trying to defend anyone here, but come on, let's all consider the basic right to freedom of speech before we post a several-paragraph editorial on the front page.
Of course this is all my opinion - am I going to be attacked because of it?
Last edited by Matt T on 22 Apr 2006 - 12:02
Nothing's gonna change, there's still plenty of innovation left to be done in OSes and the underlying platform.
Microsoft made a big mistake with not getting its team and production of vista running to its set deadline. Features that were impressive are now old hat, after we have seen vista pushed back and back.
We need to be seeing more promised features like WinFS in order for vista to not flop, or for there to be any major reason to fork out for the top end "Ultimate" windows OS, where previous editions quite frankly have indeed been over priced for too long. For non gamers and those working in an office environment using their boxes for word processing and spreadsheets, for those who merely surf the internet, they will see vista as a luxury expense which in reality isn't necessary. It (Vista) offers to them (joe average user) nothing more than XP, a glass interface maybe... is it really worth £200+? There are other features, the search, the DX10, the new security measures etc but joe average doesn't see these as important. If thy bought a pc this year, and it works, goes on the internet, they can use browsers such as FF and opera, no pop ups with good av protection... then their reason to upgrade is pretty minimal.
" if it aint broke don't fix it "
Its a shame, I had such high hopes for vista for so long... but my eager anitcipation has diminished into... well i guess I might upgrade... to damn I have to upgrade in order to play DX10 games...
I will still upgrade as I game and I want DX 10, I am really disheartened by Microsoft's inability to keep to deadlines. But the fact ramains i know many who will not be upgrading... and to be honest rightly so.
ccuk
Sure current OSs are fine for now, but thats until you taste whats better.
If DX10 was coming to XP I wouldn't waste my £ stirling on it. Problem is in order to Continue gaming we are FORCED to upgrade to Vista.
As if MS would drop out the OS market, suicide.
1.) In defense of Vista
2.) while taking a shot at Apple
3.) that is based on a wild assumption.
Microsoft will miss two of the most lucrative moneymaking opportunities: the back-to-school shopping season, and the Christmas shopping season. All thanks to a lumbering, delayed Vista.
Meanwhile Macs are running on Intel, and Apple Stores are literally *jammed* with people. I mean *jammed.* Wait until Christmas.
MS will hold on to their 90+% for the time being, but the competition seems to be galactically underrated and more capable and viable than ever.
So far, Vista has been a disappointment. Prove otherwise and I'll buy you dinner. THAT is why it is being shat on all over the web. If something does not inspire confidence, at least aknowledge it. You can cheer for it when it is released and actually lives up to expectations.
Right now here is the REALITY for all of you that have such a love for pointing it out:
We do not have Vista, but missing features from Betas and broken promises. What we do have is an aging XP that should have had a more meaningful update cycle but never did.
Cheers.
I dont mind but if you wholely believe this news to be trash why not leave it in the backpage news?
edit: whats more when that news was posted no hint was made as to it being false. I never believed it nor did many but it seemed several people did think that they were going to be rewriting all that code.
Just an oppinion, not having a go at the news team or anything.
A true fanboy. Makes up his mind before a product is even finished.
"Those who've never used a Mac will once again believe Windows has "caught up"."
Windows will never be "caught up" to OS X, and OS X will never be "caught up" to Windows. I don't see people can summarize an entire, elaborate OS as being "better" or "caught up". Aside the different development practises, MS and Apple have different priorities about what is important in an OS release. Windows will always (well, very likely) have edges over OS X, and OS X will always have edges over Windows. In the end, it depends what you want in an OS that will make the decision.
Besides, no one's really worried, anyway. Mac users know that they can expect nothing but quality from Apple, and Apple usually delivers that in spades.
Mind you, OS 7.5 and 8 were rather uninspiring, but that's way in the past.
Apple's latest public beta is Boot Camp. And yes, there's been a fuss about it!
And what is the wild assumption anyway?
And what is the wild assumption anyway?
It was rather taking a shot at Apple.
I'd like to know who's ass the "2.2% market share" statistic was pulled out of.
I know the Neowin tagline is "Where unprofessional journalism looks better." but Jesus, if they don't fix the bugs in Shift on IE soon, it'll just be "Unprofressional Journalism."
Back on topic, I am a MS Beta tester, Vista seems pretty promising. They did do a lot of work on it, I can tell. On build 5342, its already pretty stable, and runs pretty fast (I'd expect it to go faster after some final code optimizing).
Firstly, that number is actually 2.5 not 2.2, if you're going to quote somebody quote them properly.
Secondly, Shift is in BETA - the developers are constantly working on it and they know that it's not working exactly as planned in IE, which is why they have brought a member or two on board to help fix this cross-compatability problem. If it's so much of an issue for you, do back to Swift.
http://www.forbes.com/markets/currencies/2...0markets04.html
Unprofessional at best. Quotes two different figures for the same statistic in the same article. And like the author of the article, I'm using selective quotations to suit my devious ends. The article doesn't mention the massively predicted growth in Apple's markets this year nor does it use one of the more optimistic statistics. Depending on where you look you'll find Apple's market share figures are between 2% and 5%.
I realise Shift is in Beta. I was being facetious, it's not an issue for me at all. What is an issue is your attitude. It's plainly obvious you can't tell when somebody is playing devil's advocate. Personally I couldn't care less if the stats are right, if MS releases another OS or whether the author is backhandedly swiping at Apple - I just disagree with the main page of, what is primarily a news and rumour site, being used to promote one person's opinion.
But i do hope that windows vista become a big of failer... Then maybe microsoft will start to listen to the people...
-the registry is antiquated
-get rid of drive letters (mounting would be so much better, imho)
-Windows XP was released in 2001. If Microsoft continues at the same pace, there won't be another OS until 2013 (six years per release). Comparing this to most Linux distributions (2 releases per year) or Apple (one release every 18 months – not sure on this one), that's pretty damn slow!
On the other hand, I think MS will speed up their OS development (I at least hope so).
The rest of the article smells like... bull****:
-Google web-based OS: Oh, come on! Bandwidth constraints don't permit this. Data loss would be a huge risk as well.
-Virtualisation, allowing Apple to run Windows apps on OS X: what does this have to do with virtualisation? Wouldn't it be an implementation of the API instead?
-There won't be a market for MS OS'es: Oh, come on! Over 90% of the OS market is Microsoft (talking home computers here). It'll take decades before the market share erodes by a decent amount (and I doubt it'll be to Apple).
-Every modern OS contains HUGE amounts of code. I'm sure Windows code won't be perfect, but I doubt it's not workable.
-Management: management might not have been so good, but I think they'll learn from their mistakes.
My estimates: Windows will remain the major OS for a long time. OS X might gain a bit of market share, but not much. (They're too expensive... if you take a look here, you'll see the cost of iBooks (yes, those old G4 thingies). I have an Acer I'm using right now. It costs less than the iBook on the right, has a 64-bit processor, a larger hard drive, more RAM...
I know it's a cliché, but Macs are still expensive.)
Linux will gain some market share, and will be pre-installed on more computers. Its market share will still remain rather small, but I suspect that will slowly change.
In 2015, not that much will have changed.
In 2030, I'd say about 20-30 percent of computers will run Linux, 5-10% will run Macs, and the rest will be Linux.