Needham & Co Predict Mac Market Share Explosion
Posted by MonkeyClaw on 13 June 2006 - 21:11 · 21 comments & 8257 views
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(1 reply)
#1 Posted by Miles Acton on 13 Jun 2006 - 22:14
- Yes.... just like this is going to be the year of the Linux.
Not going to happen.
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#1.1 Posted by sphbecker on 14 Jun 2006 - 12:35
- If you start with the theory that there is a group of people who have considered the Mac but are worried about dropping Windows completely then this prediction could be correct.
I don' think anyone is really going to buy a Mac with the intention of running Windows all of the time; it would just cost way too much. But for people who were considering buying a Mac; the ability to run Windows takes some of the risk out of the decision.
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(2 replies)
#2 Posted by *John* on 13 Jun 2006 - 22:24
- *Newsflash*
*Macworld (Mac Fanboys) predicts Mac market share explosion!*
In other news, scientists have discovered that the sky is blue and ducks have the ability to fly, unlike the penguin, that cant fly.
Now to some random to give us the weather report.......
Last edited by *John* on 13 Jun 2006 - 23:29 -
#2.1 Posted by Chad on 14 Jun 2006 - 04:03
- Did you even read the article? The prediction is from an independant 3rd party company (Needham & Co). Macworld just reported the prediction.
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(5 replies)
#3 Posted by LTD on 13 Jun 2006 - 23:14
- MS will miss the back to school season as well as the Christmas shopping season.
Meanwhile, we have Apple = Intel + Windows, with Leopard on the way, as well as iPod enhancements. For the first time in history, Apple is producing and releasing hardawre that is powered by Intel and which runs Windows. It's a whole new ballgame. Also remember that Apple's target market is *still* not the one in which Microsoft thrives. I've already covered this in numerous threads and news comments. Apple is looking to reach out to a certain kind of user, not to the average teenage DOOM-addict.
Maybe the Anti-mac crowd should wait until profits are actually posted and shipment results are in before engaging in useless comparisons to Linux. No Linux distro or app is in any way shape or form in the same league as Apple software, anyway. -
#3.1 Posted by bluarash on 14 Jun 2006 - 02:02
- I think this is some of the problem, the Mac crowd is too elite (at least they think they are). They appear almost "*****" because of the phobia of using "commodity" parts and being associated with low income users. This is silly. Creating a computer that runs Windows does nothing to change their market share unless they distance themselves from OSX and become a Windows reseller. As strange as it may seem, most people want to use Windows not because they are forced to use it but rather because they like it.
More importantly, this is reinforced by your comment against "Doom addicts," or (PC gamers). I think they need to think about all possible markets if they want to have more than a four percent share of the market (or is that 2%). They can compete in the content creation market, but do not expect even a very small minority of businesses to switch to the Mac anytime soon. People like what is familiar to them and OSX as much as it looks like Windows (more so than the original Mac OS) does not equate to a Windows box.
As for your comment about Linux, again, you are missing the mark. Linux is key in the back office and server market. This is another market that Mac is not going to be able to compete in because of being tied to one hardware vendor. Windows 2003 and Linux run on whatever box and hardware configuration I want them to run on. This is not the case with OSX, at least not legally.
Do not equate iPod sales to anything remotely connected to the Mac line. Many people buy iTunes songs and use iTunes because it is separate from Windows. Most Windows users do not like putting all of their eggs in the same basket. They like choice and in music, at least at the moment, Apple has a better product. -
#3.2 Posted by WinMacLin on 14 Jun 2006 - 02:49
- Quote - bluarash said @ #3.1I think this is some of the problem, the Mac crowd is too elite (at least they think they are). They appear almost "*****" because of the phobia of using "commodity" parts and being associated with low income users.
That is just plain wrong. Never have I witnessed a Mac user assert there proudness of owning something more expensive. This is a fallacy invented by Windows users who specifically dislike Apple the Macintosh and Mac OS users.
I use a Mac and I use a PC and I'm thankful to be able to afford both -
#3.3 Posted by Starcom826 on 14 Jun 2006 - 04:01
- Quote - WinMacLin said @ #3.2Quote - bluarash said @ #3.1I think this is some of the problem, the Mac crowd is too elite (at least they think they are). They appear almost "*****" because of the phobia of using "commodity" parts and being associated with low income users.
That is just plain wrong. Never have I witnessed a Mac user assert there proudness of owning something more expensive. This is a fallacy invented by Windows users who specifically dislike Apple the Macintosh and Mac OS users.
I use a Mac and I use a PC and I'm thankful to be able to afford both
Well I certainly have.
"They want the cheapest, and they get PCs. You get what you pay for" or something to the effect. That's also a fallacy. Just because you haven't witnessed, doesn't mean it doesn't happen. -
#3.4 Posted by WinMacLin on 14 Jun 2006 - 05:14
- Quote - Starcom826 said @ #3.3Quote - WinMacLin said @ #3.2Quote - bluarash said @ #3.1I think this is some of the problem, the Mac crowd is too elite (at least they think they are). They appear almost "*****" because of the phobia of using "commodity" parts and being associated with low income users.
That is just plain wrong. Never have I witnessed a Mac user assert there proudness of owning something more expensive. This is a fallacy invented by Windows users who specifically dislike Apple the Macintosh and Mac OS users.
I use a Mac and I use a PC and I'm thankful to be able to afford both
Well I certainly have.
"They want the cheapest, and they get PCs. You get what you pay for" or something to the effect. That's also a fallacy. Just because you haven't witnessed, doesn't mean it doesn't happen.
With such statements like that your going to have to back it up with evidence. -
#3.5 Posted by sphbecker on 14 Jun 2006 - 12:53
- I have seen comments all over Neowin to that effect. Here are a few examples (not direct quotes, but idea is correct).
"Who cares about market share!? McDonald’s might have the highest market share but that doesn't make it better than a fine restaurant with only one location."
"What kind of idiot would pay $4,000 for a Dell?" - Not sure this was meant as a pro-Mac comment, but it sure could have been.
"We all know the only reason Widows has such a large market share is because of $299 Wal-Mart systems."
"I always love watching the computer sales staff at Best Buy showing some poor fool HP's shinny new bulky system"
"People who buy PCs just look at price"
"More people would buy Macs if they knew what they were doing"
ect....
Don't ask for references, this comes from years of reading NeoWin comments and it would take about that long to find the exact quotes. I'm sure others have seen comments such as these before.
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#4 Posted by matthew24 on 13 Jun 2006 - 23:34
- I think we don't have to worry, James Bannan writes for APC Magazine:
"In between the howls of outrage over Vista’s dropped features and claims that Microsoft are screwing and disappointing their loyal customers yet again, the Mac and Linux fanboys are rubbing their hands with glee – anticipating a flood of disillusioned Windows users flocking over to the Light. Sorry guys – the disappointment is going to be yours to savour. Microsoft-bashing may still be a popular passtime [sic], and sometimes they certainly do roll over and present a nice soft target,"
"But the thing to remember is that the way in which the vast majority of us use computers is the Microsoft way – Microsoft mentality, Microsoft products, Microsoft technologies. It doesn’t matter who thought of it first, who ripped off who, whose version is better…we are the Microsoft/MSN/Hotmail generation of computer users. And these products are to computer usage what iPods are to portable music – not necessarily the best, but the natural choices. If someone’s a Windows user now, they’re going to stay a Windows user when Vista rolls out. Don’t try and fight it."
"Windows lets you in, gets you going and gives as much or as little freedom as you want, Windows rules now, and will rule next year too. Attack Vista all you like – it makes for amusing viewing."
Source: http://www.apcstart.com/site/jbannan/2006/...ld-deal-with-it
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(1 reply)
#5 Posted by Cole on 13 Jun 2006 - 23:34
- I see this happening too, Apple finally got me interested in their hardware this year. :p
Just like Myspace harnessed the young audience, Apple will target the same audience, except with the "hip, stylish" style. -
#5.1 Posted by theyarecomingforyou on 14 Jun 2006 - 10:28
- So you weren't interested in hardware until Apple copied PCs hardware? Sounds like you're more interested in the image than the product. The main difference is that Apple don't do budget systems, whereas PC manufacturers do - that means should you want a cheap PC you can get one and should you want the top end you can go Alienware.
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#6 Posted by AdamJ89 on 13 Jun 2006 - 23:36
- *yawn*
Macworld have an article like this almost every day. Oh look - the article below this "Mac unit sales to double by 2010?". I'm sick of hearing this. I am a Mac user myself but I'm sick of hearing about increases in market share, it's all just speculation. Come and write about it if/when the Mac market share does explode. Rant over.
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(2 replies)
#7 Posted by Cierro on 13 Jun 2006 - 23:47
- This is really good actually. I mean we've been waiting for something like this for a while now. I was personally hoping apple would port OS X to x86 but oh well. either way we still have the ability to run either OS X or XP or Vista on one box now.
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#7.1 Posted by Kushan on 14 Jun 2006 - 04:28
- Dude...Intel macs ARE x86....you can install mac OS on ANY intel/AMD box recently released. As long as it's cracked, Apple deliberately blocks this normally, but it's still possible
So why pay over the odds for mac hardware when you can spend that extra money you'd save buying regular components on BETTER hardware and still afford an OSX license? -
#7.2 Posted by NeoTrunks on 14 Jun 2006 - 07:17
- Quote - Kushan said @ #7.1Dude...Intel macs ARE x86....you can install mac OS on ANY intel/AMD box recently released. As long as it's cracked, Apple deliberately blocks this normally, but it's still possible
So why pay over the odds for mac hardware when you can spend that extra money you'd save buying regular components on BETTER hardware and still afford an OSX license?
I believe it is because he does not want to incriminate himself. Not just that, but there will definitely be driver issues.
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(1 reply)
#8 Posted by rob.derosa on 14 Jun 2006 - 06:50
- triple its market share..... from 2% to 6%?
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#9 Posted by osirisX on 14 Jun 2006 - 07:39
- I expect to see another article like this in 2 days time. It seems to be the trend currently. If Apples market share 'explodes' then hurrah for them.
Wolf notes his recent online survey of college students, which revealed a dramatic increase in the number of Macs Apple may potentially sell, but warns that these results may be biased because the "higher education market is one of the Mac's strongholds".
Windows on Mac is killer-blow
In response to these concerns, the analyst has committed further research across a sample of Windows users in the US home market. The results of this survey aren't as dramatic as the student research, but still supports an optimistic outlook for the company.
His report observes: "The Mac arguably offers a superior computing experience to Windows because of the tight integration of its hardware and operating system." Despite this, he warns that attracting Windows users in significant numbers has been stalled by "the inability to run Windows apps on a Mac". This is precisely what Boot Camp addresses, he adds.
Wolf reports: "The second survey indicates that the new ambidextrous Mac could possibly triple its share in the home market and almost double its share worldwide." He also anticipates a boost in sales as a result of the 'iPod halo'.
US home market share set to triple?
His second survey revealed that the likelihood of Windows users switching to Mac rose 8 per cent on the basis that Macs can run Windows. "An increase which would triple Apple's share in the home market and almost double its share worldwide," he said.
His report states that the potential switch rate among Windows users who have iPods is dramatically higher than that of those who don't. "The Mac's ability to run Windows gave the halo effect a terrific boost: the mean switch rate rose 12.6 percentage points to 20.2 per cent," he wrote.
iPod halo boosts results
"This was over nine percentage points higher than the mean switch rate among non-iPod owners. From Apple's perspective, the good news is that Windows users who owned iPods represented only 13 per cent of all Windows users in our survey. As this percentage increases, the iPod could play an increasingly important role in Apple's strategy to grow its market share."
The Windows home-user survey was conducted for Needham & Co by market researchers at Harris Interactive. The results depended on 1,600 useful responses. The Mac held a combined 4.2 per cent share in the US and European home markets in 2005. Wolf analysed the survey results to account for common consumer behaviour (for example, if 50 per cent of a sample group says it will do something then only half of that group actually will, Harris Interactive said).
Stage set for growth
As a result of his analysis, Wolf states that given the maarket share increase described: "The Mac's market share (in 2005) would have hypothetically increased to 12.2 per cent in these markets as a result of the 8 per cent share gain."
"Although seemingly small, this increase would have almost tripled the Mac's share in these markets and translated into a 75 per cent increase in total Mac shipments in 2005," he said. "The gain in the Mac's worldwide market share would have been more subdued (from 2.3 per cent to 4.0 per cent in 2005) because the US and European home markets represent only 20 per cent of worldwide PC shipments."
In a separate note, Wolf raised his assessment on Apple stock to 'Buy' from 'Hold', assigning a $90 price target on the stock. "The migration to the Mac resulting from its ability to run Windows is unlikely to kick in fully before 2008," he warned investors. "In the meantime, Apple's transition to Intel processors could cause customers to postpone purchases until this transition is completed in early 2007," he said.