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Wait another year to buy high def DVD player

Fred Derf   on 16 September 2006 - 00:09 · 50 comments & 19477 views

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Digital Home is advising readers to purchase neither a HD-DVD player nor a blue-ray player based on the existing sales of both players. Early adopters have only purchased 25,000 HD-DVD players in the last 150 days resulting in a market too small for content providers to bother with. Even if Disney managed to get one in five HD-DVD owners to purchase the $15 HD-DVD edition of the Lion King, it would still result in gross sales of only $75,000. Sales results for Blue-Ray devices were not available but the assumption was that they lag behind even HD-DVD sales making the argument to wait even more compelling.

Digital Home suggests that, even if HD-DVD sales increase by a ten-fold magnitude, it still make take a year before one million units ship. As such a high definition DVD player may not be a wise gift until Christmas 2007 or even possibly Christmas 2008. In the meanwhile, they recommend watching high definition movies on cable since a monthly subscription to a high definition movie network is generally less than the cost of purchasing one HD-DVD or Blue-Ray movie per month.

News source: Digital Home Canada

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(4 replies) #1 swordfish on 16 Sep 2006 - 00:20
i would say start slowing down the normal dvd production and normal tv production and start pumping out more and more hd stuff . Or take a slow process as the vhs -> dvd took. i think that took about a year?
#1.1 tereshchenko on 16 Sep 2006 - 01:11
A year? More like six or seven!
And why would they slow down normal DVD production, when people still want DVDs?
#1.2 Xavien on 17 Sep 2006 - 02:28
DVD sales and rentals provide more income to the content providers than box office sales and HD media put together. So production shouldn't be slowed down unless you want a massive hole in your profit margins.

Think about this:

VHS > DVD:
The Video Quality difference from VHS to DVD was huge
It went from an analogue format to a digital format to allow greater versatility
Because it was a digital format, it allowed a great number of things to be done, such as menus, chapters and your standard FF/RWD, it also allowed zooming and 'on-the-fly' processing of the image to make it look better and enhanced

DVD > HD Media formats:
The Video Quality difference is about 1/2 that of the jump from VHS to DVD (and even less than that if an Upscaling DVD Player is used)
The amount of features provided by the new formats is neglegible, menu's will still exist, chapters etc

So, if it took 6-7 years for the mainstream user to transfer over to DVD from VHS, how long honestly is it gonna take for the mainstream userbase to transfer over to the HD media formats? 10? 15 Years? maybe even never.

For a long time to come an Upscaling DVD player is by far the best value for money.
#1.3 vacs on 17 Sep 2006 - 17:48
Quote - Xavien said @ #1.2
DVD > HD Media formats:
The Video Quality difference is about 1/2 that of the jump from VHS to DVD (and even less than that if an Upscaling DVD Player is used)


Where did you get that because it's obviously wrong. When comparing solely image quality and not simple gimmicks like menus or different angle feature, the quality difference is huge with those new 1080i and 1080p HD movies. DVD is a joke against 1080i+ HD and I barely can watch DVDs anymore because of the noticeable worse image quality.

Infact, the latest HD movies on a decent HD screen make home movies for the first time look like on the big screen with all the details and imperfections which are visible on the original film negatives but no longer visible on DVD or comparable. Movies like Blade Runner or Lord Of the Rings just unbelieveable better on HD than on DVD. Trust me, if you see it once, you'll never want to go back to DVD ever again.
#1.4 Xavien on 17 Sep 2006 - 20:52
Have you tried an upscaling DVD player? i think you'll find there is not that much difference between an upscaled DVD and the Hidef formats, i've seen them both side by side and the quality difference is not 'huge' by anymeans, yes it is better, but not that much.

A decent upscaling DVD player can deinterlace without artifacts and can also upscale the picture remarkly well.

Regardless, i really dont think either HiDef format will ever go mainstream. Its just way too soon since the introduction of DVD and people are not gonna upgrade to such formats for a long time to come. Sure, the tech enthusiast will go for the best tech, but the mainstream wont.

If anything HD-DVD and Blu-ray will probably die by the time HVD launches.
(1 reply) #2 slyph on 16 Sep 2006 - 00:26
make hdtvs cheaper and hd-dvd players will sell extremely fast.

the fact that you have to have a new tv as well as a new player makes these sell less
#2.1 Xerxes on 16 Sep 2006 - 07:51
That is the reason I won't be upgrading to Bu-Ray/HD-DVD anytime soon, already got a new (SD)TV (in the last 2 years) I'm not gonna get another one just so I can watch HD and a lot of people I know feel the same way.
(9 replies) #3 twistedddx on 16 Sep 2006 - 00:35
Call me crazy but the ps3 launch will see the number of bluray players jump to over a million units at the drop of a hat, not Christmas 2008... Standard cable is far cheaper than buying dvd's at the moment aswell, I do not think that stopped dvd sales all that much. I do not see how the cable service is a substitute for actually buying and owning the content forever.
I understand why the Americans insult the Canadians sometimes now.
#3.1 beardedwonder on 16 Sep 2006 - 05:11
over a million? I thought they were only shipping 400,000 units to the US. How are there going to be over a million blue ray units?
#3.2 Ravensworth on 16 Sep 2006 - 16:49
He was using "Sony Math®" and forgot to convert to normal math.
#3.3 beardedwonder on 16 Sep 2006 - 18:18
Quote - Ravensworth said @ #3.2
He was using "Sony Math®" and forgot to convert to normal math.

Ah!
#3.4 EduardValencia on 16 Sep 2006 - 19:12
LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
#3.5 DaveBG on 17 Sep 2006 - 19:11
Quote - beardedwonder said @ #3.3
Quote - Ravensworth said @ #3.2
He was using "Sony Math®" and forgot to convert to normal math.

Ah!



400 000 in US, 600 000 in Asia = 1 000 000. Until march another 1 000 000 in small portions PS3s is Europe too. Go to school HD DVD fanboys
#3.6 Xavien on 17 Sep 2006 - 20:54
Quote - DaveBG said @ #3.5
Quote - beardedwonder said @ #3.3
Quote - Ravensworth said @ #3.2
He was using "Sony Math®" and forgot to convert to normal math.

Ah!



400 000 in US, 600 000 in Asia = 1 000 000. Until march another 1 000 000 in small portions PS3s is Europe too. Go to school HD DVD fanboys


Wrong, 400,000 in US and 100,000 in Japan thats it, not 600,000. Your Sony Math is misleading people, stop doing it.
#3.7 DaveBG on 18 Sep 2006 - 08:38
Quote - Xavien said @ #3.6
Quote - DaveBG said @ #3.5
Quote - beardedwonder said @ #3.3
Quote - Ravensworth said @ #3.2
He was using "Sony Math®" and forgot to convert to normal math.

Ah!



400 000 in US, 600 000 in Asia = 1 000 000. Until march another 1 000 000 in small portions PS3s is Europe too. Go to school HD DVD fanboys


Wrong, 400,000 in US and 100,000 in Japan thats it, not 600,000. Your Sony Math is misleading people, stop doing it.


If you think 600 000 = 100 000 then your math is wrong pal
#3.8 Fantmx on 18 Sep 2006 - 17:37
Quote - DaveBG said @ #3.7
Quote - Xavien said @ #3.6
Quote - DaveBG said @ #3.5
Quote - beardedwonder said @ #3.3
Quote - Ravensworth said @ #3.2
He was using "Sony Math®" and forgot to convert to normal math.

Ah!



400 000 in US, 600 000 in Asia = 1 000 000. Until march another 1 000 000 in small portions PS3s is Europe too. Go to school HD DVD fanboys


Wrong, 400,000 in US and 100,000 in Japan thats it, not 600,000. Your Sony Math is misleading people, stop doing it.


If you think 600 000 = 100 000 then your math is wrong pal
Wow, where did you learn how to read? But then again I'm sure you know better than Sony how many units they will ship.
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060911-7715.html
#3.9 DaveBG on 20 Sep 2006 - 11:11
Quote - Fantmx said @ #3.8
Quote - DaveBG said @ #3.7
Quote - Xavien said @ #3.6
Quote - DaveBG said @ #3.5
Quote - beardedwonder said @ #3.3
Quote - Ravensworth said @ #3.2
He was using "Sony Math®" and forgot to convert to normal math.

Ah!



400 000 in US, 600 000 in Asia = 1 000 000. Until march another 1 000 000 in small portions PS3s is Europe too. Go to school HD DVD fanboys


Wrong, 400,000 in US and 100,000 in Japan thats it, not 600,000. Your Sony Math is misleading people, stop doing it.


If you think 600 000 = 100 000 then your math is wrong pal
Wow, where did you learn how to read? But then again I'm sure you know better than Sony how many units they will ship.
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060911-7715.html


What is this? Here is official SONY news pal!
http://www.ps3fanboy.com/2006/09/19/1-mill...s3s-preordered/
See the link in the article leads to the IFA 2006 report!
Get an IQ and learn to find real news, not rumors!
#4 tmaxxtigger on 16 Sep 2006 - 04:05
There are more and more HD-DVD movies available through Blockbuster online rentals, that way you don't have to buy the movie, you could rent one at a time for about $9.99 a month.
#5 CrisCr0ss on 16 Sep 2006 - 04:49
i wont buy an HD-DVD movie why? Because i dont have a HD-DVD player and i dont really care about buyin my moive in HD content atm
#6 TexasFlood on 16 Sep 2006 - 07:02
Most of the non-techie people I know don't even know about the existence of HD-DVD's, Blu-Rays and so forth!

Why would they be buying this? It costs them big money to upgrade just for a better picture even when most of them are still on small, 10 year old TV's.

I don't think anybody is ready for this transition yet, except for the enthusiasts. Or rich people.
#7 Orange on 16 Sep 2006 - 08:47
I'm gonna wait till summer of 2007 before i get anything maybe xmas 2007
(1 reply) #8 yert* on 16 Sep 2006 - 09:10
I might be interested in HDDVD or bluray if I COULD AFFORD AN HDTV! Derr.
#8.1 DaveBG on 18 Sep 2006 - 08:39
Quote - yert* said @ #8
I might be interested in HDDVD or bluray if I COULD AFFORD AN HDTV! Derr.



Or you can use Blu-Ray drive (from sony, pioneer, LG, panasonic <- available) now with your current PC.
#9 Fred Derf on 16 Sep 2006 - 16:00
If you read the full article. rather than my summary, you will find that another reason to wait is to see who wins the format war. Otherwise consumers might invest a lot of money into a failed technology.
(4 replies) #10 Mathiasdm on 16 Sep 2006 - 16:40
Only 25 000 so far?
Woah! I guess the PlayStation 3 will play a big role after all!
#10.1 EduardValencia on 16 Sep 2006 - 19:13
i think it's the opposite
#10.2 Mathiasdm on 17 Sep 2006 - 09:10
Quote - EduardValencia said @ #10.1
i think it's the opposite

Care to explain?

If only 25 000 HD-DVD players have been sold so far (and probably even less Blu-Ray players), I doubt more than 100 000 will be sold in the next 6 months.
That would mean Blu-Ray (due to the PS3) would gain the lead in the amount of players.
That effect would cause the sales of Blu-Ray disks to go up, which would be (for the Blu-Ray camp) a very positive change.
#10.3 mufdvr3669 on 17 Sep 2006 - 15:31
Quote - EduardValencia said @ #10.1
i think it's the opposite


How would the release of the PS3 be beneficial to the HD-DVD? That does not make any sense.
#10.4 DaveBG on 17 Sep 2006 - 19:04
Quote - mufdvr3669 said @ #10.3
Quote - EduardValencia said @ #10.1
i think it's the opposite


How would the release of the PS3 be beneficial to the HD-DVD? That does not make any sense.


Man cant you understand? Its the hd dvd way of "sence". No mather what, even though the world is against hd dvd they "will" win
#11 Ravensworth on 16 Sep 2006 - 16:47
"Sales results for Blue-Ray devices were not available but the assumption was that they lag behind even HD-DVD sales"

Going by Amazon's sales ranking I would say so. http://www.thedvdwars.com/index.cfm
(7 replies) #12 Julius Caro on 16 Sep 2006 - 18:56
I will wait until they're cheap
#12.1 libertas83 on 16 Sep 2006 - 20:47
HD-DVD player can be picked up for $400 and I'm sure the the add-on for the xbox will be less, so while not dirt cheap like a $40 DVD player its still pretty good prices.

BTW, waiting to see who wins is stupid. If the media and early adopters pick a format now and go with it then its likely the format war will end fast. Waiting is going to make the format war longer!
#12.2 DomG on 17 Sep 2006 - 01:32
US$400 is a lot of money for something that, to me, offers nothing more than a normal DVD player. These HD players are being pushed too early, not enough people have HDTV. I don't know anyone who has an HDTV. Most people I know don't even know there's a difference between digital and analog, let along SD and HD.
#12.3 AfroTrance on 17 Sep 2006 - 20:58
Quote - libertas83 said @ #12.1
BTW, waiting to see who wins is stupid. If the media and early adopters pick a format now and go with it then its likely the format war will end fast. Waiting is going to make the format war longer!


You're stupid. Why should we risk wasting money because the industry is childish?
#12.4 DaveBG on 18 Sep 2006 - 08:35
Quote - libertas83 said @ #12.1
HD-DVD player can be picked up for $400 and I'm sure the the add-on for the xbox will be less, so while not dirt cheap like a $40 DVD player its still pretty good prices.

BTW, waiting to see who wins is stupid. If the media and early adopters pick a format now and go with it then its likely the format war will end fast. Waiting is going to make the format war longer!




Yeah right!
Why should i put money on something wich will be gone few months from now? Blu-Ray have not yet been launched and will have 400 000 more players with PS3 release, while hd dvd have been out a year ago and have ... ~20 000 players sold
#12.5 libertas83 on 18 Sep 2006 - 19:07
Quote - DaveBG said @ #12.4
Quote - libertas83 said @ #12.1
HD-DVD player can be picked up for $400 and I'm sure the the add-on for the xbox will be less, so while not dirt cheap like a $40 DVD player its still pretty good prices.

BTW, waiting to see who wins is stupid. If the media and early adopters pick a format now and go with it then its likely the format war will end fast. Waiting is going to make the format war longer!




Yeah right!
Why should i put money on something wich will be gone few months from now? Blu-Ray have not yet been launched and will have 400 000 more players with PS3 release, while hd dvd have been out a year ago and have ... ~20 000 players sold


HD-DVD has only been out since May, a few months, not a year. Als, put your money where you want, but Blu-Ray is not going to add anything more than HD-DVD already brings. The best they can do is equal each other and at that point I consider spending $1,000 on Blu-Ray a waste of money.
#12.6 DaveBG on 19 Sep 2006 - 13:54
Quote - libertas83 said @ #12.5
HD-DVD has only been out since May, a few months, not a year. Als, put your money where you want, but Blu-Ray is not going to add anything more than HD-DVD already brings. The best they can do is equal each other and at that point I consider spending $1,000 on Blu-Ray a waste of money.



They will not equal since HD DVD have no spce for improvenment:

http://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=2601

and Blu-Ray have
#12.7 libertas83 on 19 Sep 2006 - 18:48
Quote - DaveBG said @ #12.6
Quote - libertas83 said @ #12.5
HD-DVD has only been out since May, a few months, not a year. Als, put your money where you want, but Blu-Ray is not going to add anything more than HD-DVD already brings. The best they can do is equal each other and at that point I consider spending $1,000 on Blu-Ray a waste of money.



They will not equal since HD DVD have no spce for improvenment:

http://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=2601

and Blu-Ray have


Disc space has nothing to do with video quality. The codec is the key here. VC1 and H.264 all achieve better video quality using much less disc space compared to MPEG2. These advanced codecs can fit a 4 hour movie on 1 HD-DVD disc with the same high quality we are seeing from video reviews on HD-DVD.

Studios that support both formats are going to use one codec for both formats and use the same encode! Warner's latest Blu-Ray discs are using the same VC1 encode from HD-DVD.

That is the best it can get folks in regards to video quality. Both formats support the exact same codecs and studios will choose their preferred codec and use them in both.

The extra disc space in Blu-Ray is best suited for tv episodes and data, not movies.

Put it another way for you. If I rip a DVD to my hard drive, has it increased in quality just because there is more space to store it. No!
(1 reply) #13 Lt-DavidW on 16 Sep 2006 - 21:05
What the hell is "Blue-Ray"?? lmao
#13.1 Fred Derf on 16 Sep 2006 - 22:25
Quote - Lt-DavidW said @ #13
What the hell is "Blue-Ray"?? lmao

That's my fault. The original article has it spelt correctly. Still, I don't think it detracts from the meaning of the article.
(2 replies) #14 PeterTHX on 17 Sep 2006 - 05:03
Except at this time there may be not much HD DVD left.

In the next three months no less than SIX Blu-ray players will be available.

Panasonic
Sharp
Pioneer
Sony
Philips
PlayStation 3

Mitsubishi, Yamaha, LG, Lite-On have announced players but no street dates.

Disney, Paramount discs are available over the next 2 weeks.

Fox discs in November.

HD DVD has no additional studio support. No additional manufacturer support. It's the UMD of the HD world.
#14.1 DaveBG on 17 Sep 2006 - 19:07
Quote - PeterTHX said @ #14
Except at this time there may be not much HD DVD left.

In the next three months no less than SIX Blu-ray players will be available.

Panasonic
Sharp
Pioneer
Sony
Philips
PlayStation 3

Mitsubishi, Yamaha, LG, Lite-On have announced players but no street dates.

Disney, Paramount discs are available over the next 2 weeks.

Fox discs in November.

HD DVD has no additional studio support. No additional manufacturer support. It's the UMD of the HD world.




Yes. Also Fox is backing Blu-Ray, and many small and bigger hardware companys.
On the other hand Toshiba is loosing money from HD DVD because they sell their player underpriced. The player cost is ~800 and they sell it for 400 to get it to more people. This is no good i think
#14.2 phiberoptik on 17 Sep 2006 - 20:40
Quote -



Yes. Also Fox is backing Blu-Ray, and many small and bigger hardware companys.
On the other hand Toshiba is loosing money from HD DVD because they sell their player underpriced. The player cost is ~800 and they sell it for 400 to get it to more people. This is no good i think


There is no way in hell Toshiba pays $800 to make the hardware the forms a HD-DVD Player.

Now if maybe your talking about R&D and then production, then maybe I can see that..

But the physical hardware, pcb boards, and physical automated machines that build them, they already have, and probably spend less then $10 on making the units.
(3 replies) #15 ThaCrip on 17 Sep 2006 - 09:32
me personally i dont really care much about HD DVD or BLU RAY as there barely better than standard dvd format... like someone said above... VHS > DVD = HUGE improvement..... DVD > blu-ray/hd-dvd = minimal improvement... and if your on a standard tv (like im sure the vast majority of people are) it's basically pointless to by one of those players.... ill bet even on a HDTV the differeance aint nothing super big.

i aint even sure if either of those formats will win... im kinda with the group of people that thinks that hd-dvd/blu-ray's biggest competitor is the DVD format itself.... plus i think that the fact that HDTV owners are in the minority that right there is obviously going to hurt the odoption of those fancy new players.

me personally... the only thing i will like about those new formats is for the "storage" as that's about the only thing thats a HUGE improvment over standard dvd when talking pc data

bottom line (for me) = i wont be leaving dvd anytime soon .... p.s. i prefer XviD over DVD anyways as it lets u fit more movies onto a standard dvd recordable disc (about 3-6 movies)... i just use my moded xbox (with XBox Media Center) to play back the XviD movies.
#15.1 libertas83 on 17 Sep 2006 - 16:39
I completely disagree that DVD > Hi-Def is minimial improvement. It is a huge improvement! I have watched DVDs for years on my computer and my computer monitor shows the flaws in DVDs. Even really good mastered DVDs like Star Wars have major problems. I own Attack of the Clones DVD and later downloaded a 720p wmv-hd version of it. Going back and forth you can really tell the difference.

I used to debate with one of my friends why I think PC gaming is better than the PS2. I would show him how much better the quality is on PCs because you can run the game at 1280x960 resolution compared to 640x480 used on the PS2 and he couldn't see a big difference. However, I have many wmv-hd trailers and clips, plus the quicktime HD trailers and it blew his mind.

Everyone I have talked to who sees an HDTV with a 720p or 1080i content being played on it notices the improvements. Sports get a major improvement in 720p. Most of the broadcast content is actually over-compressed and badly made, but its much better than what we have now. All the reviews from HD-DVD say that they have surpassed that quality, and even surpassed the quality of the HD clips I have on my computer.

If you think its a small improvment than you have never seen HD and how bad DVDs really are. DVDs suck!
#15.2 AfroTrance on 17 Sep 2006 - 21:01
Quote - libertas83 said @ #15.1
I have watched DVDs for years on my computer and my computer monitor shows the flaws in DVDs.


Try and find the same flaws sitting 3 metres from a 50 cm analog TV.
#15.3 libertas83 on 17 Sep 2006 - 21:51
Quote - AfroTrance said @ #15.2

Try and find the same flaws sitting 3 metres from a 50 cm analog TV.


I won't see the flaws in the DVD because I will see all the flaws from your TV. Which is fine because you are not so much into quality as you are just in having something that works. There is nothing wrong with that, its your choice.

However, coming on here or telling people that DVD is perfect is a lie to those people who have never seen it. DVDs are far from perfect and HD-DVD or Blu-Ray is a huge improvement. This is an investment for people who want better quality, and most of the time, they won't know they want it until they see it in person.

BTW, I stopped purchasing DVDs a couple years ago because I knew it was a waste of money when HD movies were on their way. I still have a standard analog tv too, so I can't just go out and buy a HD-DVD player. I don't have much money myself, its just something I want and will look forward to in the future.
#16 j0j081 on 17 Sep 2006 - 14:21
same thing smart people have been saying for months.
#17 Magallanes on 17 Sep 2006 - 21:35
If i was disney, then i launch hd or blu-ray as fast as i can, no matter how many people have a player because even if the movie gain dust.. is still can be sell in the future. I remember the first cd when the only musica available was classic one.. and they sold reallly good.


#18 TigerFX on 21 Sep 2006 - 16:05
Can anyone explain to me why there's even a competition between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray? Forgive me for being ignorant, but I've wondered this for years now and I've never gotten an answer. BR has, in many cases double the storage space of HD-DVD (making it ideal for PC backups, and also for television series, and things like LOTR special edition which pack in hours and hours of extras - it's not about video quality as you said, but quantity). What does HD-DVD have that Blu-Ray doesn't?

Also, people are going to laugh at me for this but I consider it a major issue. "Blu-Ray" is so much easier to pronounce than "HD-DVD" (2 vs 5 syllables). Considering how frequently we use the term "videotape" or "DVD" in our lives ("Did you get the new James Bond [HD-DVD/Blu-Ray], yet?", "Buy it today on [HD-DVD/Blu-Ray]!" ), I really think it's a significant issue. Whichever format prevails, we're going to be saying it a lot, and for the sake of the millions of people who will be using the name on a daily basis, I'm behind Blu-Ray for that very reason (for the most part; though specs also play a part). There's just no way to shorten "HD-DVD", since both "HD" and "DVD" mean different things, so you'll have to pronounce the whole darn thing every time you want to mention it (which depending on your field, could be countless times in a day). Also consider the poor advertisers to whom every second in your 30-second spot is priceless. Since HD-DVD is 250% as hard to say, I really think it's a significant issue.

Maybe you all think I'm nuts. But that's been one of my major concerns from the beginning.

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