Software giant claims businesses will rush to upgrade to Vista, but analysts paint a different picture
Microsoft is predicting that Windows Vista will be adopted by companies twice as fast as its predecessor, Windows XP.
Twelve months after the release of Vista, Microsoft expects that usage share of the oft-delayed operating system in businesses will be double that of XP a year after it shipped, said Brad Goldberg, general manager for Windows product management at the software maker.
"Vista is built for businesses," Goldberg said. "We're giving businesses the tools they need to get out of the gate faster with Vista... Our goal is to have twice as fast deployment of Vista than for any other operating system."
Microsoft declined to give its own figures on Windows XP's usage percentages, and instead referred to research by IDC. According to the analyst company, XP was installed on about 10 percent of enterprise PCs after a year. That would put the goal for Vista at 20 percent.
View: ZDNet News
Microsoft is predicting that Windows Vista will be adopted by companies twice as fast as its predecessor, Windows XP.
Twelve months after the release of Vista, Microsoft expects that usage share of the oft-delayed operating system in businesses will be double that of XP a year after it shipped, said Brad Goldberg, general manager for Windows product management at the software maker.
"Vista is built for businesses," Goldberg said. "We're giving businesses the tools they need to get out of the gate faster with Vista... Our goal is to have twice as fast deployment of Vista than for any other operating system."
Microsoft declined to give its own figures on Windows XP's usage percentages, and instead referred to research by IDC. According to the analyst company, XP was installed on about 10 percent of enterprise PCs after a year. That would put the goal for Vista at 20 percent.
View: ZDNet News
With its money and man power, Windows is still such a crap.
They don't have any innovations at all.
But at the same time, they think they desire more and are going to rise the price of the OS.
I really don't see anything a business can benefit from upgrading to Vista.
I think unless other software vendors stop supporting XP SP2, Vista will just be some people's toys.
In the future, I think almost all of Microsoft software will be sold with new PCs; no one is going to upgrade to something that has negligible new useful features with a higher price.
Last edited by ALUOp on 02 Oct 2006 - 17:49
If in fact SP1 somes aout Mid-2007, they would place it well within the first year of release for Vista. If most companies jump on the "mature" SP1, I can see Microsoft's prediction of over 20% deployment by first year to be very feasable.
I disagree; firewalls, be they locally or remotely hosted, aren't the be-all and end-all to security; what about security vulnerabilities in regards to buffer over runs and other wonderful security flaws related to memory - if they're running Windows 2000, it'll be on older hardware which doesn't have DEB/NX enabled in the processor, and even if it did, Windows 2000 doesn't support that feature out of the box.
Unforunately, what is holding many of these companies back isn't Microsoft and their software, but lazy third parties, and poorly written programmes written internally by their own IS staff who hacked crap together resulting in stuff that falls to pieces when the ever so slightest things have changed in subsequent versions of WIndows.
Home users will adopt much quicker then corporate.
You seem to have some issues with Microsoft software - what are they?
I've had this Toshiba laptop for over a month, and have yet to experience a single crash or BSOD; luck or just the fact that I don't buy **** quality hardware.
I've had this Toshiba laptop for over a month, and have yet to experience a single crash or BSOD; luck or just the fact that I don't buy **** quality hardware.
No crash or BSOD for a whole month on a brand new laptop?!?!?!?! How is this possible...oh right, we aren't in the Windows 95/98 days. Are you running Vista on the computer. If this is true then I am rather surprised.
I've had this Toshiba laptop for over a month, and have yet to experience a single crash or BSOD; luck or just the fact that I don't buy **** quality hardware.
No crash or BSOD for a whole month on a brand new laptop?!?!?!?! How is this possible...oh right, we aren't in the Windows 95/98 days. Are you running Vista on the computer. If this is true then I am rather surprised.
Windows XP Professional; and going by past reactions, I'll say there will be whiners like you, bitching that your DIY job, made up of **** components, is crashing, whilst someone like me has smooth sailing all the way.
Let's tackle the upgrade list first:
1. GeForce 6xxx? Try 5xxx (or ATI R3x
2. 1 GB DDR333/400: The biggest hardware upgrade for older PCs otherwise Vista-ready, as this still costs about $350USD (1).
3. 3 GHz+ CPU: Oh, please. *Any* Northwood-C (S47
Slower than XP? Decidedly *not* in my experience; so far, Vista has been, if anything, faster than XP (largely because of no longer having my startup group excessively peppered with appearance-related applications).
Once again, you make reference to Vista being *rushed*: I really have to ask if you have installed RC1 (either 5600 or 572
You seem to think that the only folks with good Vista experiences are pre-teens and teens. I am 45 years old, have tested various software products for *several* companies (including Microsoft) for fifteen years, been involved in helpdesk/LAN support for ten years (concurrent with software testing since 1996), and even found time to do programming/software development (mostly databases) for three years (1996-1999). I have built my own computers since 1993, so I am well familiar with the compromises forced on a SoHo business, since I am one.
A software developer/ISV that continues to stall in a competitive market should be reminded of the price that can be paid for stalling. Are you holding the whiphand over your ISVs, or is it the other way around? If you are a large business, and over half your ISVs are stalling on supporting Vista because the OS hasn't shipped yet, remind them that it is time to *fish or cut bait*. They are NOT the only ISVs out there, and I'm pretty sure you *can* find Vista-compatible alternatives for your software (that is, if the ISV market is Genuinely Competitive).
What do you think they are going to say? "No one is going to upgrade to Vista" ?
As for my personal opinion, I think Microsoft is horribly wrong...I think the adoption rate is going to be VERY slow.
LOL One thing is what they expect and another thing is the reality
Or maybe it was all a dream and Charles Babbage is actually having a shower in the next room...
Microsoft has yet to learn they can sell more copies the lower the price is.
Support staff require 2 machines, a 2000 and xp machine for support as the roll-up is going to take another year with slow migration.
Another year or two and we will have all the 2000 desktops converted to xp, so I don't see us going to vista anytime soon.
Support staff require 2 machines, a 2000 and xp machine for support as the roll-up is going to take another year with slow migration.
Another year or two and we will have all the 2000 desktops converted to xp, so I don't see us going to vista anytime soon.
Question; are those 600+ applications internally written widgets or actually serious large applications from vendors like Oracle, Sybase and SAP?
They probably used undocumented features and hacking around in parts that they shouldn't.
Its like MacOS X; the only stuff that seems to break are poorly written **** by polytech trained coders who use goto liberally though their VB code.
the MS marketing goon is just trying to help keep his job and bolster his stock price. My expectation is that, due to the now mandatory system replacement dongle requirement for Vista, Microsoft will see a MUCH slower adoption rate for Vista than they did with XP.
Think about it. It made sense to upgrade lots of Windows 2000 and Windows 98 machines to Vista. Today, however, I won't even be upgrading the machines I have now that are capable of running Vista. It is simply too expensive, contains a ton of things I don't like/need/trust (WGA, new DRM(s), "trusted" computing, god knows what else), and offers to the general consumer nothing obviously of interest/need except for the snazzy interface.
So, I'll be doing what I am recommending to all my clients, family, friends, etc. - re: when I buy a new machine, it'll be Vista, PCI/X, SLI, etc.
I expect Vista's sales curve to be very, very tied to the sales of new computers...period.
(n) stampede (a headlong rush of people on a common impulse) "when he shouted `fire' there was a stampede to the exits"
(n) stampede (a wild headlong rush of frightened animals (horses or cattle))
Like I keep trying to say to people, the make or break point for Windows Vista isn't necessarily whether Microsofts product is of a 'high quality', because lets face it, they have 95% of the market, and even if the quality were to drop, people would be still upgrading; what will dictate as to the speed of upgrading will be whether or not third parties have embraced the features added to Vsta and created "Vista Optimised" applications.
Let's see what this really unqualified message leaves open......12 months after XP was introduced an X number of W98's were replaced by XP. Now 6 years on, and a multiple size of installations MSFT claims twice the number of Vista installs 12 months from introduction......hmmm wordplay with an ominous undertone.
Personally, now 5 years after install and re-install and re-install and getting rid of most of the bugs it finally runs smooth.....Vista first needs to proof itself, particularly its security model, its entirely new network stack, the antitrust compliance hurdles, what not. Which business is going to install that?
XP is now 5 years old and we still have critical vulnerabilities released for it. If you thought about XP now the same way you think about Vista, you still wouldn't deploy XP.
The real issue is as follows:
1. Do your apps work? This is a no-brainer.
2. Does it enable more function for you / your business, even potentially? You don't have to buy into #2 as immediate benefit. A lot of coporations renew their Windows license as part of a leased PC program, so as new machines enter the business they have the latest license on them.
After those issues, the only real concern that sane businesses have is: Does Microsoft as a company have a standardized support model where we can expect patches? Heck, if anything has been proven over the last 5 years it's that. You think seriously that Vista won't be released without the best possible patch management? In fact, one of the features of Vista is improved patching (less reboots necessary).
It doesn't matter if it's new. Companies install "new" software all the time. It's all about the ongoing support, not the "new"-ness.
XP is now 5 years old and we still have critical vulnerabilities released for it. If you thought about XP now the same way you think about Vista, you still wouldn't deploy XP.
The real issue is as follows:
1. Do your apps work? This is a no-brainer.
2. Does it enable more function for you / your business, even potentially? You don't have to buy into #2 as immediate benefit. A lot of coporations renew their Windows license as part of a leased PC program, so as new machines enter the business they have the latest license on them.
After those issues, the only real concern that sane businesses have is: Does Microsoft as a company have a standardized support model where we can expect patches? Heck, if anything has been proven over the last 5 years it's that. You think seriously that Vista won't be released without the best possible patch management? In fact, one of the features of Vista is improved patching (less reboots necessary).
It doesn't matter if it's new. Companies install "new" software all the time. It's all about the ongoing support, not the "new"-ness.
The "new"-ness of a version IS a big deel to most corporations. New features mean new bugs. A smart corporation would rather let others file the bug reports while it waits for a good, stable OS. Any and all software suffers from this, even the VERY expensive ones. I experienced this with MathCAD earlier this year when our company upgraded to v. 13.0. The software was EXTREMELY buggy, and they had customer support call me for my weekly bug list (no joke). 13.1 was a god send.
Not saying MathSoft = Microsoft, but this has been the trend in computing for over a decade now, why do you think it is going to change now?
So as far as they're concerned, once Vista hits the retail shelves, XP will be considered legacy and they'll not sell it any more...
I dread that day. I just can't see myself advising people to get down the shops and pick up a copy of Vista :|
Last edited by Chicane-UK on 02 Oct 2006 - 21:07
Companies with Volume Licenses need to make use of their free year subscription upgrade, otherwise they may loose the opportunity to get vista cheaper.
I DO NOT CARE FOR THE OTHERS
Maybe *home users* when it's out for them, but businesses?! I'd say not a chance. There's too much at stake. A business don't want to risk a single unknown incompatibility and would rather wait to read up on how things are working for others first. If any problems are discovered, they'll then have a better chance of a fix having been found already.
This looks more like a wish from Microsoft that if they put it out in the media, they hope it'll come true due to their confidence in it happening.
I'm part IT admin part software developer at our work and I'll sure as hell not vote for an upgrade before we've had a number of months of solid "RTM testing" by the large public, despite we having the *ability* to upgrade as soon as it's out for Volume License customers as we do have access to those builds. At most I could upgrade my own computer a bit earlier, but that's only because I admin it myself and is computer literate enough to have much greater understanding on how to work around problems. I would never have time to troubleshoot 20+ peoples' sudden Vista issues.
Last edited by Jugalator on 02 Oct 2006 - 22:09
"I triple guarantee you, the American business customers will rush to purchase Vista."
I don't see any company begging for translucent windows, or taskbar gimmics or 3D program switcher.
I think they are trying to attract the public attention that they believe to be lacking.
The question is will it be better than Millenium edition or not.
I don't see any company begging for translucent windows, or taskbar gimmics or 3D program switcher.
I think they are trying to attract the public attention that they believe to be lacking.
The question is will it be better than Millenium edition or not.
Comparing vista to me is just plain wrong. And there's alot more to it than just a pretty interface. But, with all it has, i think it's adoption will still be relatively slow.
"I apologize for the misinformation...that is not the 'Business Customer'....but the 'American Army' Stampeding"
The only niche i can see wanting Vista so bad will be the hardcore gamers who want their DX10 goodness
I am a big fan of Microsoft but this Vista stampede will not happen.
Let's consider my school ... all of the machines here have either 256MB or 512MB RAM (only a select few have 1GB) and Vista won't do well in those...
Not everyone is made of money