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Microsoft CEO: Vista Forecasts Too Aggressive

Daniel Fleshbourne   on 16 February 2007 - 11:53 · 19 comments & 7740 views

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Microsoft Corp. Chief Executive Steve Ballmer said Thursday analysts' forecasts for revenue from Windows Vista in fiscal 2008 were "overly aggressive." Ballmer's comments come two weeks after the world's largest software maker released Vista, the upgrade to its ubiquitous Windows operating system, and predicted that consumers will move to Vista faster than past Windows upgrades. In a strategy presentation to analysts, Ballmer said Vista will create a "small surge" in PC sales in fiscal 2008, but would not spur a big increase over normal growth rates.

"Some of the revenue models and revenue forecasts I've seen out there for Windows Vista are overly aggressive," said Ballmer. "I don't think that much new money will race out of the consumers pockets into PCs." In January, Microsoft made available Windows Vista after more than five years of development and numerous delays. Windows runs on more than 95 percent of the world's computers and represents the company's biggest profit driver. The Windows franchise is the centerpiece of Microsoft's business, because the company makes more than 75 cents in operating profit for every dollar of sales. The cash flow generated by Windows allows Microsoft to make investments in new business like digital music players and online services.

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News source: CRN

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(4 replies) #1 Davebo on 16 Feb 2007 - 13:01
Wow, Microsoft's "wackiest" representative seams to have a better grasp on reality than his colleagues. Who'd a thunk it....

I predict Vista will be a flop compared to their recent offerings. There's too much FUD out there - some of it deserved.
#1.1 excalpius on 16 Feb 2007 - 19:20
Which is the same as my many comments and predictions here over the past year. Ballmer has begun the "management of expectations" game by beginning to back out of the rosy "for Wallstreet idiots" only predictions over the past six months. The rest of us knew better and said so.

Score 1 for the people who know what they are talking about over the army of MS MBAs responsible for Vista's absurd pricing, ridiculous crippleware market/version segmentation, and unrealized promises.

Vista is XP+ and everyone knows it. They should have priced, released, and marketed it as such.
#1.2 parithon on 17 Feb 2007 - 02:25
Quote - (excalpius said @ #1.1)
Which is the same as my many comments and predictions here over the past year. Ballmer has begun the "management of expectations" game by beginning to back out of the rosy "for Wallstreet idiots" only predictions over the past six months. The rest of us knew better and said so.

Score 1 for the people who know what they are talking about over the army of MS MBAs responsible for Vista's absurd pricing, ridiculous crippleware market/version segmentation, and unrealized promises.

Vista is XP+ and everyone knows it. They should have priced, released, and marketed it as such.


Obviously you know nothing about Vista's internal working... if you did, you'd know that it's no XP+ equiv.
#1.3 werejag on 17 Feb 2007 - 11:46
Quote - (parithon said @ #1.2)
Quote - (excalpius said @ #1.1)
Which is the same as my many comments and predictions here over the past year. Ballmer has begun the "management of expectations" game by beginning to back out of the rosy "for Wallstreet idiots" only predictions over the past six months. The rest of us knew better and said so.

Score 1 for the people who know what they are talking about over the army of MS MBAs responsible for Vista's absurd pricing, ridiculous crippleware market/version segmentation, and unrealized promises.

Vista is XP+ and everyone knows it. They should have priced, released, and marketed it as such.


Obviously you know nothing about Vista's internal working... if you did, you'd know that it's no XP+ equiv.


yeah and you my friend are believing the hype.
#1.4 parithon on 19 Feb 2007 - 04:56
Quote - (werejag said @ #1.3)
Quote - (parithon said @ #1.2)
Quote - (excalpius said @ #1.1)
Which is the same as my many comments and predictions here over the past year. Ballmer has begun the "management of expectations" game by beginning to back out of the rosy "for Wallstreet idiots" only predictions over the past six months. The rest of us knew better and said so.

Score 1 for the people who know what they are talking about over the army of MS MBAs responsible for Vista's absurd pricing, ridiculous crippleware market/version segmentation, and unrealized promises.

Vista is XP+ and everyone knows it. They should have priced, released, and marketed it as such.


Obviously you know nothing about Vista's internal working... if you did, you'd know that it's no XP+ equiv.


yeah and you my friend are believing the hype.


Really? So please sir, set me straight. Explain how the security enhancements, performance and reliability enhancements, complete EoA (Ease of Access) redesign, parental controls, sound control redesign, driver seperation from kernel, ability for the OS to determine what applications to close during upgrades/installs (without a complete OS reboot), etcetra, is just an XP overhaul.
(1 reply) #2 lbmouse on 16 Feb 2007 - 14:02
Very interesting. I knew that Ballmer could jump up and down on stage like a monkey and throw chairs like there was no tomorrow, but never knew he could back-peddle so fast.
#2.1 C_Guy on 16 Feb 2007 - 16:11
Don't forget the lighting of fires!

Oh wait, that's a different Steve.

Sorry.
(1 reply) #3 TickleOnTheTum on 16 Feb 2007 - 14:06
I bought Windows 3.0, 3.1, 95, 98 and XP within days of their release, yet I won't be getting Vista. It's just to expensive for too little an improvement. Here in the UK they are charging nearly double the amount that it costs in the US, making it far to expensive to justify for most everyday users.

Unless they drop the price here to what it should be if you convert the US price at the current exchange rate this will likely go the way of the fabled Windows Me...
#3.1 MountainSnake on 16 Feb 2007 - 15:51
Ditto!
(3 replies) #4 C_Guy on 16 Feb 2007 - 16:10
Pesonally, I was way more excited to get XP.

I'm not sure about the price either. On the one hand I feel its fair given the work it takes to make Vista but on the other, many original offerings have been stripped out (like WinFS for one) so the value on the dollar isn't as good as it should be.
#4.1 GP007 on 16 Feb 2007 - 17:52
Vista Home Premium is the same price that XP Pro was/is, and for the same price you also get Media Center in there, which XP Pro didn't/doesn't have until they released the newer MCE2005 version.

The thing that's holding Vista back are the lack of good hardware drivers, people are running on beta drivers with sucky performence and or bugs that make Vista crash. If people would go back to the first days of Win2k and even XP, they also had a lack of good drivers at the start which held them both back.

When XP was out, everyone said, "boo, it's just a new UI and nothing else, I'm staying with Win2k!" Now the same people turn around and say that vista is "just a new UI and nothing else, I'm staying with WinXP."

It's an endless cycle whenever a new OS comes out until the hardware and software devs finally do their job and code for it like they should.
#4.2 lbmouse on 16 Feb 2007 - 18:52
It's much more than just hardware support that is keeping the Vista numbers down. Even though more and more homes have computers (and boxed retail sales are down 60%! ) , the majority are still for business use. Corporations don't see the benefit (because there really isn't any) to occur the enormous expense of upgrading to Vista. Many companies are still upgrading from 98/NT/2K to XP.
#4.3 Aero Ultimate on 16 Feb 2007 - 22:42
Quote - (C_Guy said @ #4)
Pesonally, I was way more excited to get XP.

Same here. When I went from Win98 to XP, it really was a huge improvement
The move from XP to Vista, while nice, is nowhere near as big.
Poor driver support and lacking program support from some overly dozy and sluggish companies puts an additional dampener there.

Quote - (C_Guy said @ #4)
I'm not sure about the price either. On the one hand I feel its fair given the work it takes to make Vista but on the other, many original offerings have been stripped out (like WinFS for one) so the value on the dollar isn't as good as it should be.

Since I was clever enough to get Vista Oem, I won't complain about the price
(4 replies) #5 Galley on 16 Feb 2007 - 17:59
What if you spent billions of dollars and five years developing a product that very few people actually wanted?
#5.1 excalpius on 16 Feb 2007 - 19:28
Remember that MS developed Vista TWICE. The first time was an abysmal choke and they had to start all over again a couple of years ago. Fortunately, MS has the cash reserves to eat that, take the loss, and start over again. Good for them. But what that doesn't give them is the right to double charge US for their screw up.

Vista (Ultimate) is the ONLY version of Vista that should have been released, as a $100 upgrade to XP Pro, or $200 retail version. Everything else is Vista- crippleware, period.

PS They did do a great job with the new Office 2007 though. The ribbon really rocks and they should extend it throughout the product suite.
#5.2 MrCobra on 16 Feb 2007 - 20:53
That's exactly right but unfortunately it's the way it is. Vista was a train wreck from the moment it was conceived. It's a very disappointing release. I think a home and a pro version would have been better.

Office rocks.
#5.3 parithon on 17 Feb 2007 - 02:33
Quote - (excalpius said @ #5.1)
Remember that MS developed Vista TWICE. The first time was an abysmal choke and they had to start all over again a couple of years ago. Fortunately, MS has the cash reserves to eat that, take the loss, and start over again. Good for them. But what that doesn't give them is the right to double charge US for their screw up.

Vista (Ultimate) is the ONLY version of Vista that should have been released, as a $100 upgrade to XP Pro, or $200 retail version. Everything else is Vista- crippleware, period.

PS They did do a great job with the new Office 2007 though. The ribbon really rocks and they should extend it throughout the product suite.


Actually they didn't drop Vista's first development track because it was an abysmal failure, it was dropped because of their new commitment to security and knowledge on the subject. In order to create the secure OS that Vista is today many of the other features were pushed back and eventually broke. The amount of time and effort it would have taken to bring these features back into the OS would have pushed it another year or so.

Now, lets look at the differences between Vista Premium and Vista Ultimate; listed are what is available in Ultimate but not in Premium. (resource here):

1. Complete PC Backup
2. Business Networking (i.e. Remote Desktop and Domain Networking)
3. Bitlocker
4. Ultimate Extras

So that list simply doesn't prove to me that Vista Premium is a crippled version of Windows.

Last edited by parithon on 17 Feb 2007 - 02:41
#5.4 werejag on 17 Feb 2007 - 11:50
Quote -
1. Complete PC Backup
2. Business Networking (i.e. Remote Desktop and Domain Networking)
3. Bitlocker
4. Ultimate Extras

So that list simply doesn't prove to me that Vista Premium is a crippled version of Windows.


smoke and mirrors
#6 ANova on 17 Feb 2007 - 16:49
Vista is a sham and people are slowly starting to realize it.

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