PlayStation 3 to outsell Wii by 2013

Sony's PlayStation 3 games console will outsell the Nintendo Wii by 2013, at least according to industry analyst David Mercer of StrategyAnalytics who wrote a short preview of the upcoming "Global Video Game Market Forecast" publication on his blog.

In his blog post, the analyst wrote that there will be an estimated 76 million Wiis used worldwide by the end of 2010. However, he went on to say that there are signs "that the Wii has peaked in terms of console sales, and its installed base will begin to decline after 2011."

Meanwhile, Sony’s PS3 and Microsoft’s Xbox 360 will continue to grow, so that the PS3 will become the largest platform globally by 2013. In terms of cumulative lifetime sales we expect the PS3 to hit 127 million units, compared to 103 million Wiis."

Mercer goes on to explain their forecast scenario and how there are uncertainties surrounding both the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 due to the introduction of motion controllers to both systems, as well as Sony's plans to add support for 3D to all PlayStation 3s.

He finished the post with some basic statistics about the year for console sales. After a 6% decline in the sales last year, he says that they "are predicting global console sales of 47.5 million, a 9% decline".

"The Wii will account for most of that decline: sales of the PS3 and Xbox 360 are predicted to increase."

Report a problem with article
Previous Story

Microsoft starts rolling out new MSN homepage

Next Story

Rock Band 3 confirmed for holiday release, will “revolutionize” genre

53 Comments

Commenting is disabled on this article.

Little kids... I'm not a little kid. And I prefer the Wii over both. And 2013... By then we will already have the Wii 2, Next Xbox and PS4. So no luck. PS3's are just overpriced for nothing much. I'd much rather get a Xbox over a ps3. But a Wii over both

I personally dislike the wii. I'm an old fart who just likes sitting down and relaxing whilst playing. None of this motion stuff. But that's my opinion. What they achieved was very good indeed.

Sorry to say but here in Greece, the Wii was sold out from early Dec to late Jan, most of the places I went visiting, and literally it was a case of searching for when wii's came in, they would be sold out within a couple of hours, the shelves were stacled to the top with PS3 and 360, and no one was interested, it even got to the point one box of ps3 was the same price as a wii, and people were still waiting for the wii's.

As to the market share, I would say the wii is aimed as the family, not so much the individual, just look at the majority of the games, they provide social gaming with everyone playing at the same time.

I must admit to switching the wii on when friends are round for a drink and the night turning into hilarious fun, even the girlfriends joining in playing.

I think a lot of the games play on humor and multiplayer, if you have never ever played raving rabbits on the wii with a bunch of friends after having a couple of beers, then you really wont understand how much fun it is.

I see a lot of people knocking the wii, but those knocking it have missed the point of what the wii provides, its not a high end system, people wont go OMG look at the textures on that. The wii isnt aimed at those people. I really think the wii aimed itself at a market and gave a platform people could play fun games on as a group. Not at an individual sat at home on his own getting carried away at how his single person game looks and plays like.

Um? No offense meant but how long have the Wii "fad" been expecting to "decline"?
If it's bad as people make it out to be, word of mouth would of killed it by now.

Nintendo has the sales to prove it's #1. It's try that fans of Ps3/Xbox may not like the Wii but the Wii appeals to a much larger group, besides gamers.

Everyone will be tired of the Wii at that point though, and by then the PS3 will have much better exclusives. To me, this isnt all that surprising.

in 3 years when the Wii two is out as well as a new XBOX and the PS4. Seems like someone had to much time on their hands to do a study like this.

Is this guy Pachter in a mask? The console that's selling twice its competition combined will be outsold by one of those said competitors... in 3 years? Ok.

For those that say the Wii is a "kiddie toy"... you're absolutely right. It's a game, like the 360 and PS3. Look for the Wii to be sold out everywhere for the coming months as Mario Galaxy 2, Metroid: Other M and later the new Zelda get even more people on the bandwagon. Just NSMB Wii caused a console glut this holiday season.

By 2013 nobody will be buying any of them. (And no, there's no 2012 doomsday punchline in there.) I'd like to think there would be new consoles by then, especially to replace the Wii.

six out of the top 10 video games in 2009 belonged to the Wii.
Nintendo sold more Wiis in December of 2009 than the PS3 and Xbox 360 combined.

Say what you want. It has repeatedly kicked Sony and Microsoft's ass's.
Let's say how this really works.
The Wii is geared towards adults who grew up with Zelda, Super Mario and the likes. They have kids now. Do the math on that one.
XBox and Playstation are geared towards teenage boys ( Who probably had their parents buy it for them anyway) and adult males that still live in their parents basement.
XBox and Playstation may have more realistic games but I guess by the figures for the past few years, that doesn't always make you better.

speedstr3789 said,
The Wii is geared towards adults who grew up with Zelda, Super Mario and the likes. They have kids now. Do the math on that one.
XBox and Playstation are geared towards teenage boys ( Who probably had their parents buy it for them anyway) and adult males that still live in their parents basement.

+1

I would love to be an analyst. You can just make up total bull**** and get paid lots of money for it.

By 2013 no one will be buying a Wii so I sure as hell HOPE the PS3 would be outselling it.

Sony's got a good thing going now. Cheaper HD TV's are fuelling Blu-ray sales, so people with a family will feel it's not bad forking out a bit more to get a PS3 as well.
Plus, the games are picking up... I picked up a PS3 Slim late last year and I've been quite impressed with recent titles.

I have the Wii as well but it seems no more killer games are coming out for it... I think they've used the 'motion sensor' controller well to sell games but they've run out of ideas (and it looks pretty bady on HD screens!). Time for the Wii 2, Nintendo has had enough time to prep it so it should be something (full-motion body suits anyone?!).

i spent the day hunting ps3's today. my cousin came down and wanted to grab one for himself.
gamestop, walmart, target and bestbuy...all Sold Out! Amazing.

schiz-o-phren-ic said,
i spent the day hunting ps3's today. my cousin came down and wanted to grab one for himself.
gamestop, walmart, target and bestbuy...all Sold Out! Amazing.

We've seen this "limited supply" syndrom from Sony before, they aren't selling a significantly larger number of consoles then Nintendo or Microsoft, they're just in shorter supply/have worse distribution. Every time a major game comes out for sony there's a short term shortage, and God of War has been pushed as a "very big game" so it's not surprising that their narrow supply chain's choked up... doesn't mean all that much for them in terms of profitability.

Well, they've been doing quite well on sales these past few months. Great stream of game releases from last October-December carrying over into the new year long with another great lineup to begin the year. I remember seeing stacks of ps3's sitting throughout the floors across BestBuy stores here. Supply may be an issue, but it's obvious they're selling significantly more across the board in comparison to the competition.

Edited by SimplySchizo, Mar 10 2010, 5:54am :

schiz-o-phren-ic said,
i spent the day hunting ps3's today. my cousin came down and wanted to grab one for himself.
gamestop, walmart, target and bestbuy...all Sold Out! Amazing.

Sony announced last month that supplies would be "tight" for the next few months. They intentionally reduced inventory, although they didn't say why from what I recall.

I was discussing this article with a friend and he was kind enough to let me post this he came up with:

*It's the year 2013 and the Sony president ask to their different branches how they are doing...

Game Branch: Sir we have good new and bad news.
President: Good news please...
Game Branch: Sir the PS3 finally is selling at a profit in hardware.
President: That's great, and what is the bad news?

*Game Branch: Well Sir,...errmm... the market is already saturated, the economy stalled and Nintendo and MS are working on their NextGeneration Consoles.... so we are barely selling any PS3s...
President: .... Well, that's lame, do something to fix it and let me know... I'll be at my Office playing Mario Galaxy 3.

lol

Dr Fate said,
I was discussing this article with a friend and he was kind enough to let me post this he came up with:

*It's the year 2013 and the Sony president ask to their different branches how they are doing...

Game Branch: Sir we have good new and bad news.
President: Good news please...
Game Branch: Sir the PS3 finally is selling at a profit in hardware.
President: That's great, and what is the bad news?

*Game Branch: Well Sir,...errmm... the market is already saturated, the economy stalled and Nintendo and MS are working on their NextGeneration Consoles.... so we are barely selling any PS3s...
President: .... Well, that's lame, do something to fix it and let me know... I'll be at my Office playing Mario Galaxy 3.

lol

PS3 has been having profits for a while now.

Wow. If I ran a company and said "We will run in the red for a few years, take a lot of heat from our fanbase, but I promise you in 7 years we will outsell the competition..." I'd be fired. Are you kidding me? It might outsell the original Wii but whatever Nintendo release between now and then will dominate once again. And Sony is banking on a freaking wand. Really. A wand is going to take them to the top?

That is just hillarious. I wonder how much Sony is paying under the table to these guys. Seriously by 2013, even if we dont get a next gen console, the Wii will pretty much will be in the hands of everybody and their granparents. The PS3 has been struggling and the worst thing is that Sony have invested more in PR than in fixing what is wrong with it. They need to get their heads out of their asses because marketing aint gonna win this generation and neither will the next as well. Gamers have gain more knowledge and have become more demanding.

Dr Fate said,
That is just hillarious. I wonder how much Sony is paying under the table to these guys. Seriously by 2013, even if we dont get a next gen console, the Wii will pretty much will be in the hands of everybody and their granparents. The PS3 has been struggling and the worst thing is that Sony have invested more in PR than in fixing what is wrong with it. They need to get their heads out of their asses because marketing aint gonna win this generation and neither will the next as well. Gamers have gain more knowledge and have become more demanding.

Gained more knowledge? What the hell are you talking about? If they had, they wouldn't be buying a repckaged Gamecube with a motioncontroller for the same price as a console of this generation. If anything they've become more stupid, buying something just cause their friends has one.

by 2013, the home consoles would have the remote/wand/natal thingy and the market would become red sea again.
i believe nintendo will get out of there and dive into the next blue sea.

probably a portable/home hybrid console system

**** 3D. At least for now. I really don't care if a PS3 can be able to playback 3D or not, you'll need another HDMI cable and a new Monitor to do so. Plus, Xbox 360's Natal is looking nice.

Regarding Nintendo, they better get out something like a Zelda for their Wii machine, or else they will be starting the "epic fall".

This thing was released in 2006, though. By November 2013, it will be 7 years old. I think at that point the campaigns will ahve at least started for a new console. Undoubtedly from Microsoft, who released in 2005, and from Nintendo who probably want to get a more powerful console out there.

boobless said,
By then Wii 2/Wii HD will be out anyway.

Which is why the PS3 will outsell the Wii, because it will no longer be available. :)

I dunno, this forecast seems a bit ridiculous to me... I just don't see it honestly...

And even if Wii sales stagnate and PS3 sales continue to increase, by 2013 the next generation will at the very least be on the horizon, and this will likely slow adoption... Was this not considered?

Assuming that the market conditions and the players (meaning the consoles) remain the same, which I doubt it... A new Wii release is probably due next year or so. Same perhaps for the other consoles.

I still believe it's due to the fact that the Wii is for little kids and they grow up so fast that Nintendo can't keep up. The PS3 and 360 have an entirely different target audience.

bjoswald said,
I still believe it's due to the fact that the Wii is for little kids and they grow up so fast that Nintendo can't keep up. The PS3 and 360 have an entirely different target audience.

But this would also mean that more and more kids would be growing in to a Wii too... There isn't a limited supply of children...

bjoswald said,
I still believe it's due to the fact that the Wii is for little kids and they grow up so fast that Nintendo can't keep up. The PS3 and 360 have an entirely different target audience.

The only people who believe Wii is "for little kids" most likely don't even have the mental capability of a little kid.

The "bash Wii bandwagon" only makes you look like a fool.

bjoswald said,
The PS3 and 360 have an entirely different target audience.

Than Wii? Well let's see... Wii appeals to (and their target market is) children, seniors, and everyone in between. So unless you're in a womb or a tomb, you're in Wii's target market.

Microsoft and Sony both have more narrow target markets than Nintendo but Microsoft seems to be doing very well without pointing fingers at the console leader.

C_Guy said,

Than Wii? Well let's see... Wii appeals to (and their target market is) children, seniors, and everyone in between. So unless you're in a womb or a tomb, you're in Wii's target market.

Microsoft and Sony both have more narrow target markets than Nintendo but Microsoft seems to be doing very well without pointing fingers at the console leader.


I'm in a tomb? Damn. I didn't know. That does explain the night jobs, I guess.

Nintendo isn't targeting me. I want a gaming console that actually has the capabilities to do something interesting.

I have a Wii. If it's targeted at single males in the their twenties then they're doing it wrong. Sorry, it's not Wii bashing, it's just the truth. The last actually good game was No More Heroes 2 and recently before that was... what? Oh right, nothing special. If you said "New Super Mario Bros." then you don't know what you're talking about.

It's for the casual gamer, end of story. Get a 360 or PS3 like randomevent said if you actually want to do something interesting... like I dunno, play a relatively good game once in a blue moon.

KSib said,
I have a Wii. If it's targeted at single males in the their twenties then they're doing it wrong. Sorry, it's not Wii bashing, it's just the truth..

This line sets us up to know exactly what you are going to say in the rest of your post. You have the typical arrogance and "the world revolves around me and others like me" attitude of a 20-something male. Hey, I've been there, done that (well over a decade ago), and let me tell you, it makes you look stupid to anyone over 30. Guess what? There are casual gamers in your age range too. There are casual gamers in the teen age range. There are casual gamers in EVERY age range. That is why the Wii will continue to outsell the PS3 and 360 combined. I used to have a PS3. Know what? 90% of the time it was used as a media player. Why? Because the majority of the games for it were of no interest to me. I'm not interested in 100 different war games. I'm not interested in blood and gore games. I'm not at all interested in sports simulation games. And the endless supply of racing games get old after the first couple of times around the track. They are all the same once you get right down to it.

People like you tend to dismiss casual gamers like me as "not real gamers", but guess what? Gamers of any kind are real gamers. We buy game systems. We buy games. And we outnumber "hardcore gamers" by a wide margin.

Kirkburn said,
No, it's not.

Defend that point. Cartoon graphics and half-assed versions of games considered masterpieces on other consoles doesn't make the wii come out as a console for people over 12 and under 60 all that much. Oh, and I don't believe I've ever seen anything like My Little Pony in the aisle of xbox games.

bjoswald said,
I still believe it's due to the fact that the Wii is for little kids and they grow up so fast that Nintendo can't keep up. The PS3 and 360 have an entirely different target audience.

http://gothamist.com/attachments/jen/2007_09_senior1.jpg

Oh yeah, look at that "kid" play. Veteran gamer right there. She'll light saber the crap out of your comment. Not so intelligent, you are.

Edited by NeoSigma, Mar 10 2010, 4:37pm :