Report: Windows Phone will jump to 17% market share next year

Last month, Neowin covered a report from IDC which stated that the Windows Phone platform would overtake that of the iPhone by 2015 in terms of market share. It would appear that the Market Intelligence Centre (MIC) has predicted a similar forecast which could be considered even more optimistic. The MIC foresee Android to have a 40% dominance, followed by iOS' 19% and Windows Phone with 17%.

The MIC also made some other predictions in its report for next year, with HTC becoming the fourth largest smartphone brand globally, shifting RIM (owner of the BlackBerry brand) out of the top four. Given HTC's involvement with the Android platform, it's no surprise that the MIC also predict Android to keep on growing with an estimated share next year of 40%, two percent more than this year. One interesting prediction however, is that Apple's iOS will grow only by 1% over the next 12 months, highlighting the slower growth than their other competitors.

The smartphone market has been growing at a very fast rate in the past few years since the release of Apple's first iPhone, which brought a business essential to the masses. In the United States, the smartphone holds a 38% share against those of feature phones which is at 62%. In this latest prediction, the feature phone market will decline by almost 8%, taking it to 54% using figures from Mobile Insights.

As we've covered previously, due to the deal that Microsoft have been able to make with Nokia, Windows Phone's market share is due to jump given that Nokia has had a particularly strong presence in smartphone manufacturing. Nokia is relying on Windows Phone as much as Microsoft is relying on Nokia to deliver a bigger market share; only time will tell if both will be satisfied with the result of the deal.

Image Source: microsoftfeed.com

Report a problem with article
Previous Story

WP7 Marketplace hits 25,000 apps

Next Story

GPS Industry: LightSquared 4G would "defy" laws of physics

40 Comments

Commenting is disabled on this article.

Anyone that I know that has used the new Windows Phones has said they love the OS, so as long as the shop staff stop with just get a Iphone crap then it should do a lot better.. and the Mango update is clearly a very big update that will make the phone more liked IMO

having had or have tried ios, andriod, blackberyy and wp7. I would have to say my personal choice is wp7 for my peronal phone and blackberry for my work, both in there own rights blow away anything ios or andriod have. i find ios just crap now and andriod is just too scattered over the place.

im gonna love xbox live voice chat and gaming on the phone. AS well as skype integration..and many other things

g0dlike said,
In your dreams, Microsoft.

Considering Microsoft funds IDC, anything it says can be safely ignored as corporate PR.

Flawed said,

Considering Microsoft funds IDC, anything it says can be safely ignored as corporate PR.
???
What nonsense?
.
Microsoft is a customer of IDC! They PAY them to predict emerging trends, locate future markets and etc.
They don't ask them to be biased towards them, in their researches!! Where will their credibility go then?!

Once the Mango handsets come this fall and have the new Mango on them already, it will be better. Here's hoping Verizon grows up and get a top tier phone from HTC. I did try the Trophy. I did like it per se, but I decided after playing with the Thunderbolt for a day I prefer something a lil bigger. The Trophy was too much in size to iPhone and the smaller screen doesn't do the software justice.

I also hope for a phone with AMOLED, so here is hoping Samsung brings one to Verizon. In fact if they took the Charge which is nothing more than a slight larger Focus, I would most certainly get that one.

TechieXP said,
Once the Mango handsets come this fall and have the new Mango on them already, it will be better. Here's hoping Verizon grows up and get a top tier phone from HTC. I did try the Trophy. I did like it per se, but I decided after playing with the Thunderbolt for a day I prefer something a lil bigger. The Trophy was too much in size to iPhone and the smaller screen doesn't do the software justice.

I also hope for a phone with AMOLED, so here is hoping Samsung brings one to Verizon. In fact if they took the Charge which is nothing more than a slight larger Focus, I would most certainly get that one.


+1.

I really like WP, and hope it succeeds, but even as a fan I'm getting tired of seeing these kinds of predictions. Next year no one will remember or care what some marketing firm predicted for smart phone sales in 2011.

Weren't there reports that it would be like 40% in 5 years?

I'm guessing RIM is going to be the biggest loser? or is symbian still being counted?

Julius Caro said,
Weren't there reports that it would be like 40% in 5 years?

I'm guessing RIM is going to be the biggest loser? or is symbian still being counted?

I wouldn't be surprised if Google buys RIM in the next year or two.

Symbian is being counted just like Windows Mobile is still counted. On a side note, Windows Mobile has a higher market share than Windows Phone 7.

thealexweb said,
Going from 1% to 17% in a year? Virtually all of that will be from the nokia deal.

IDC is infamous for its Microsoft funded reports. Clearly Microsoft is so desperate that it feels it needs to create a reality distortion field.

Flawed said,

IDC is infamous for its Microsoft funded reports. Clearly Microsoft is so desperate that it feels it needs to create a reality distortion field.

I was wondering what sort of nonsense you'd post on this article... LOL

Flawed said,

IDC is infamous for its Microsoft funded reports. Clearly Microsoft is so desperate that it feels it needs to create a reality distortion field.

I don't know about that but I do know that IDC has from time to time made bold predictions and when it didn't come true, it revised there numbers down.

They did that in June where they revised the number of PC sales down for 2011 from a higher prediction earlier this year.

The fact is that the IDC is solely basing this on people staying loyal to Nokia. That is a huge gamble. Considering that Nokia sales quickly went down in the past two quarters and Android reaping the benefits, IDC better reevaluate there "predictions".

Windows Phone will keep growing, is young, is good, is good and is Microsoft, but, really, anyone thinks that WP can get a 17% share next year?

It's simply not realistic. If Windows Phone Mango is as good as it seems and Nokia and other partners make good handsets and good marketing, it's possible to reach double digit at end of year.

Pepeda said,
Windows Phone will keep growing, is young, is good, is good and is Microsoft, but, really, anyone thinks that WP can get a 17% share next year?

It's simply not realistic. If Windows Phone Mango is as good as it seems and Nokia and other partners make good handsets and good marketing, it's possible to reach double digit at end of year.

if they continue to get this many headlines for some more time the acceleration will be massive. %17 is optimistic yea, but double digits will probably happen.

I think in the "end", it'll be Android, then iOS, then WP7. After that you're left with those who are mainly failing as they haven't kept up such as Blackberry.

drazgoosh said,
I think in the "end", it'll be Android, then iOS, then WP7. After that you're left with those who are mainly failing as they haven't kept up such as Blackberry.

I'd probably agree with this, but if the last 4 years have showed us anything it's if a new proposition enters the market which is better, people will quite happily switch. We've seen Apple go from selling no phones to millions, and Android now gaining incredible market share. The question is will everyones market share eventually settle down, or will it always be people gaining massive share and people losing massive market share?

DomZ said,

I'd probably agree with this, but if the last 4 years have showed us anything it's if a new proposition enters the market which is better, people will quite happily switch. We've seen Apple go from selling no phones to millions, and Android now gaining incredible market share. The question is will everyones market share eventually settle down, or will it always be people gaining massive share and people losing massive market share?

True for now. But I think that eventually people will slowly start to stay at whatever platform they are on because as they buy more apps and music, switching platforms gets harder. Unfortunately vendor lock-in will start to take place.

MS Lose32 said,
True for now. But I think that eventually people will slowly start to stay at whatever platform they are on because as they buy more apps and music, switching platforms gets harder. Unfortunately vendor lock-in will start to take place.

Yes, but then it will be no different than consoles, where you may have apps or games, but how often do you still play them? And people switch consoles all the time... And so many apps are free too. Honestly, for the average peron, the cot should be pretty minimal.

My sister recieved her Trophy on monday and she just loves it. WP7 is an excellent OS, and the Mango update will make it more outstanding

Well, my brother just got a Trophy. It's a damned slick OS. Certainly my next one, as soon as one with a big screen/front facing camera/NFC comes to Verizon...

MioTheGreat said,
Well, my brother just got a Trophy. It's a damned slick OS. Certainly my next one, as soon as one with a big screen/front facing camera/NFC comes to Verizon...

I think I'm getting a Trophy myself. After looking at reviews it looks like a great option (and not too costly)

svnO.o said,

I think I'm getting a Trophy myself. After looking at reviews it looks like a great option (and not too costly)

I have an LG Optimus 7. 3.8" screen and great build quality, just something to consider as well. Of course it depends on your carrier.