Rise of tablets will increase PC desktop sales, claims Forrester

There's been a lot of talk and speculation that as more and more people embrace purchasing tablets, PC sales will also decline. Indeed, we are supposed to be living in a "post-PC" era, according to some experts.

Forrester Research has a slightly different take on the matter. The research organization posted a new report this week that gives its predictions on how tablet sales will increase over the next several years. However, the most interesting thing about the report is how it gauges the sales of desktop PCs during this time period.

Forrester predicts that there will still be a whopping two billion PCs in use worldwide by 2016, even as it also claims that annual tablet sales will increase to 375 million worldwide that same year, with a total install base of 760 million by that same year. In a separate blog post, Forrester's Frank Gillett states:

That’s because tablets only partially cannibalize PCs. Eventually tablets will slow laptop sales but increase sales of desktop PCs. That’s because many people, especially information workers, will still need conventional PCs for any intensely creative work at a desk that requires a large display or significant processing power.

If Forrester's prediction comes true, that's good news for Microsoft, who will have its hands in both the desktop and tablet space with Windows 8.

The full report is unavailable to the general public.  Venture Beat has apparently seen the report and it says that, according to Forrester's predictions, Apple's iPad will still have a third of the tablet marketplace by 2016. It also predicts that sales of Windows 8 tablets will take over some of the market share away from tablets that use Google's Android operating system.

However, the same report claims sales won't really begin to take off for Windows 8-based tablet products until 2014. That's because the report believes Microsoft still needs to make its Metro user interface more compelling for users.

Image via Forrester

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Then this should already have happened, right? It hasn't.

To the contrary, PC sales are dropping as tablet sales are selling like mad.

The quote makes sense only if upcoming tablets are like the tablets of today. If any chance, they might be like the Samsung Series 7 slate or the Lenovo Yoga - convertible devices that are portable, compact and yet powerful enough for even most information users. And when they reach the office and want a large display, they just dock their tablet into the dock - something like that on the Series 7 slate.

Lets face it Windows 8 even if its a failure is going to dwarf Android tablets. I don't know if they will beat the Ipad.

First off I have a powerful desktop, 17 inch HP laptop, Small 15 inch HP Probook (doesn't get used very much), iPad and Windows 8 CP touch pad. During the day I find myself on my Desktop system. At night I find myself on my couch on my 17 inch Laptop and sometimes my Desktop. When I leave my home I rarely take anything with me, but if I do I usually take my iPad and sometimes my Windows 8 CP tablet. When I use the iPad, I mostly use it to consume information.

One very redeeming quality of my Windows 8 CP tablet (but would also work for a Win 7 tablet) is the ability to take my SD card out of my T2i while i'm taking photos and look at them on the touch pad.

warwagon said,

One very redeeming quality of my Windows 8 CP tablet (but would also work for a Win 7 tablet) is the ability to take my SD card out of my T2i while i'm taking photos and look at them on the touch pad.

That point becomes moot when you consider the accessory that exists for the iPad that allows for the same thing for only $29. It will be hard for the W8 tablets to significantly break into the market without features that are not already available for the iPad/Andriod counter parts. $29 for the accessory or hundreds for a new tablet. I think the main selling point will have to focus on the ability to load desktop programs on the tablet.

Either way, I will probably be getting once just to round out my tech gadget collection.

ILikeTobacco said,

That point becomes moot when you consider the accessory that exists for the iPad that allows for the same thing for only $29. It will be hard for the W8 tablets to significantly break into the market without features that are not already available for the iPad/Andriod counter parts. $29 for the accessory or hundreds for a new tablet. I think the main selling point will have to focus on the ability to load desktop programs on the tablet.

Either way, I will probably be getting once just to round out my tech gadget collection.

Well, ya but you also have to transfer the photos to the iPad you just can't look at them of the SD card.

I am finding that for school, I am using my desktop less and less. The only thing I really use my desktop for in regards to school is writing long research papers. With a blue tooth keyboard, I am able to take notes, view/create presentations, and do some basic research on my iPad. However, I still find longer research papers easier to do on a multi display desktop.

For personal use, obviously the desktop still obliterates tablets for the more "hardcore" games like MMORPGS, FPS, and CPU intensive games like Starcraft. However, I am finding myself using my tablet more for Netflix and HBOGo (I don't have a TV in the bedroom out of principle), online communication through Facebook, and simple pleasure games like Drawsome and Angry Birds.

I can see how for general consumers, they would want to have a PC to keep their media files such as pictures and music organizes, while actually using tablets to view and listen to them.

YUP. I've already decided my next computer purchase will be a desktop PC and a Tablet for portability. The Tablet will need to sync 100% with the desktop though... and I will require a keyboard in case I need to type a lot! Basically, the Tablet will be my portable desktop.

I'm hoping Windows 8 will make this possible...

Makes perfect sense to me, and it is exactly what I see everyday.

Family, Friends, and clients all seems to be moving to more portable devices to play Draw Something, check facebook, read the news or e-books, etc, etc, etc.

They then turn to their aging desktops to pay the bills, play more intensive PC Games, photo editing, or some other more PC intensive activity that it is unlikely to see done on a tablet/smartphone.

But by the same token, the PCs aren't getting used as much, so not as much crap-ware is being constantly installed on them. Therefore the impression that they aren't "aging" as quickly is instilled on the owner, as there aren't 500+ applications set to run on Start-Up, and the demand to replace them isn't as strong.

That makes sense. A laptop does both portability and processing power/stability, but only okay. It can't beat the lightweight portability of a tablet or the beefiness of a good desktop (well, not most of the time, at least not in a cost-effective way). Jack of all trades vs two dedicated devices for two different functions, excelling at each respectively. Sounds like what I have going on already, really--aside from the work laptop, my home/personal computing is done on a tablet and my desktop, and I like that arrangement.

its no question that win8 will be successful if they have an ad campaign as good as "windows 7 is my idea" and their WOA tablets should be same price or less than the ipad.

mr lefleur said,
its no question that win8 will be successful if they have an ad campaign as good as "windows 7 is my idea" and their WOA tablets should be same price or less than the ipad.

haha you thought that tablet sales increase is due to win 8 tablets? haha No.... win 8 will be a small part, there prediction is based on ipad sales

DevilsNotDead said,

haha you thought that tablet sales increase is due to win 8 tablets? haha No.... win 8 will be a small part, there prediction is based on ipad sales

"according to Forrester's predictions, Apple's iPad will still have a third of the tablet marketplace by 2016. It also predicts that sales of Windows 8 tablets will take over some of the market share away from tablets that use Google's Android operating system."

It's all prediction anyway so none of it matters.

laserfloyd said,

"according to Forrester's predictions, Apple's iPad will still have a third of the tablet marketplace by 2016. It also predicts that sales of Windows 8 tablets will take over some of the market share away from tablets that use Google's Android operating system."

It's all prediction anyway so none of it matters.


yeah but where does it say win 8 selling so and so million tablets??? no where!!
also dont forget the success of kindle fire and partially Nook... they are next best to ipad sales now which will take up another 1/3rd and then there is android tablet which is not selling that well but still can take up some share due to lower price...

DevilsNotDead said,

yeah but where does it say win 8 selling so and so million tablets??? no where!!
also dont forget the success of kindle fire and partially Nook... they are next best to ipad sales now which will take up another 1/3rd and then there is android tablet which is not selling that well but still can take up some share due to lower price...

You are oversimplifying how market shares work. The combined market share can never be more than 100% obviously. However, the total market is always growing. This leaves plenty of room for Microsoft and others to gain ground in market share, while still not outselling the iPad/iOS combo on a product by product comparison. Until Win 8 on tablets is released, there is no way to tell how it will impact the markets. Having only a 1% market share of 780 million tablets sold is still 7.8 million tablets sold. The question is not if Windows 8 will be a success, being measured by profits(the only real measure of success that truly matters in business), but how much profit it will make.