Windows RT predicted to grow slowly in tablet market

Windows RT, also known as Windows 8 ARM, is expected to to grow slowly in the tablet market place over the next five years, according to a new report from NPD DisplaySearch.

The report predicts that Windows RT will claim just 1.5 percent of the tablet market in in 2012, when it is currently scheduled to launch this year. Windows RT is expected to grow up to 7.5 percent of the tablet market by 2017, according to NPD. It also predicts that sales of tablets running on regular Windows 8 will have a very tiny market share going forward.

The same report claims that the market share for iOS tablets such as the iPad will actually go down from 72.1 percent in 2012 to 50.9 percent by 2017. NPD claims that Android-based tablets will increase from 22.5 percent of the market in 2012 to 40.5 percent in 2017.

Overall, the report claims that shipments of tablets will grow from 81.6 million units in 2011 to 424.9 million units by 2017. Tablets will also overtake shipments of notebook PCs by 2016, according to the same report. It also predicts that the number of tablets with high end AMOLED displays in tablets will increase from just three percent in 2012 to 30 percent by 2017.

Image via NPD DisplaySearch

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Microsoft "bet the ranch" with Windows-8 just for a tiny piece of the tablet marketplace; leaving serious laptops and notebooks users with Windows-7.

Windows RT will be off to a slow start like Windows Phone 7. MS are again in the same position here as they were with Windows Phone, they are coming in with a new product way after the competition are already entrenched.

To most people who have no idea what a tech blog is tablet means iPad and why would they want a not iPad when all their friends have an iPad?

I think it's an underestimation... I think they think it's like the phone, and they are forgetting the billion Windows users... We'll see I guess.

I'm guess they are seeing more tablet specific apps being rolled out. Plus Android market share is at 32% in Q1 according to this article.... http://www.information-age.com...rket-share-in-decline.thtml

That been said, the 32% includes the Kindle Fire and as the Tablet market grows, Android, and to a lesser extent iOS, won't have an even further expanded lead over Microsoft as they did with the phone market, so IMO 40% is probably too high.

lordcanti86 said,
Can somebody tell me honestly why these analysts STILL think Android tablets are just going to magically start selling?

My only guess is that they include Kindle Fire's in androids numbers and growth.

Win RT tablet for me I think...I have a desktop PC for utility & office based usage so I guess my laptop can be sold to fund tablet for Win RT...I hope for a dockable one (with keyboard) so I could take it in my car in tablet form for gps use :-)

MrHumpty said,
They give way too much credit to android. Their tablets are balls compared to ipad, even today.

It's not a quality chart, it's a market share chart. And Android tablets aren't that bad.

Ambroos said,

It's not a quality chart, it's a market share chart. And Android tablets aren't that bad.

But if you look at charts its clear that Android tablets are falling off a cliff. Not many people want them.

Ambroos said,

It's not a quality chart, it's a market share chart. And Android tablets aren't that bad.

Quality has is a huge part of what drives share. Android made huge promises and has not delievered to the average user. I've spoken with too many ppl who shelled out ipad dollars for a droid device only to wish they had an ipad. Those people, who are still early adopters, spread that feeling to others who are waiting to buy.

iPad offers a better experience, more higher quality apps etc. etc. Windows will most likely be the first real competitor to iPad though we'll have to see.

Frankly, the only way this graph works is if you count the Amazon "android" offering. If you pulled that out of these numbers and made them their own data points I could agree more.

Frankly, why these stat companies still count the Kindle Fire as android is beyond me.

Windows 8 on tablet does not create a unique market like ipad and Android tablet is doing.
for a normal user- Should i buy a laptop or a windows 8 tablet? eventually MS loses a sale of laptop here.
also price for x86 is going to be higher so many will buy ipad/Android rather than windows 8. so the estimate is expected and would be a very very slow growth.

still1 said,
Windows 8 on tablet does not create a unique market like ipad and Android tablet is doing.
for a normal user- Should i buy a laptop or a windows 8 tablet? eventually MS loses a sale of laptop here.
also price for x86 is going to be higher so many will buy ipad/Android rather than windows 8. so the estimate is expected and would be a very very slow growth.

Android tablets are doing well. I think android tablets are a dead end. Its either windows 8 or ipad.

Um why would it matter to MS if they lose a laptop sale just because someone bought a Windows tablet? It's still a Windows sale.

But yeah the x86 version will probably cost a good deal, but the ARM one should be much cheaper (Windows RT is the ARM version of Win8).

-Razorfold said,
Um why would it matter to MS if they lose a laptop sale just because someone bought a Windows tablet? It's still a Windows sale.

But yeah the x86 version will probably cost a good deal, but the ARM one should be much cheaper (Windows RT is the ARM version of Win8).


"a tablet sale"?? would be millions. why would it matter to MS is because price of W8 ARM is a lot cheaper than the normal 8 versions. so its lost revenue.

still1 said,

"a tablet sale"?? would be millions. why would it matter to MS is because price of W8 ARM is a lot cheaper than the normal 8 versions. so its lost revenue.

You do realize Dell / HP etc don't pay full price for a Windows license right? They get heavy discounts due to volume licensing (in fact they probably pay MS like $50 for a Windows 7 license, guessing since the OEM one is $90 without any volume discounts). Dell doesn't go to MS and pays them $100 every time someone buys one of their laptops, they probably go to MS with $50 million dollars and say hey give me 1 million Windows 7 licenses.

The other thing is Windows 8 RT could possibly have less licensed stuff so MS could sell it for cheaper without making a loss.

still1 said,

"a tablet sale"?? would be millions. why would it matter to MS is because price of W8 ARM is a lot cheaper than the normal 8 versions. so its lost revenue.

Since the shift to mobile is a given at this point it's were the market is. Even though WinRT will be cheaper than Win8 x86, to the OEM, if the number of sales is there it's fine to them. Besides, it's better for MS if that lost laptop sale results in a Windows tablet sale and not another iPad or Android tablet sale wouldn't you say? Which do you think is the bigger lose in revenue?

-Razorfold said,

You do realize Dell / HP etc don't pay full price for a Windows license right? They get heavy discounts due to volume licensing (in fact they probably pay MS like $50 for a Windows 7 license, guessing since the OEM one is $90 without any volume discounts). Dell doesn't go to MS and pays them $100 every time someone buys one of their laptops, they probably go to MS with $50 million dollars and say hey give me 1 million Windows 7 licenses.

The other thing is Windows 8 RT could possibly have less licensed stuff so MS could sell it for cheaper without making a loss.


You made a valid point but the explanation you gave was stupid... if dell sells 2 million licence dell pays 100 Million to MS but due to lost sales of x86 if dell only sells 50 Million or less they only have to pay them 50 million. there are possibility
also, i didnt say MS will lose money.. all i said was MS will lose revenue.. there is a difference.

GP007 said,

Since the shift to mobile is a given at this point it's were the market is. Even though WinRT will be cheaper than Win8 x86, to the OEM, if the number of sales is there it's fine to them. Besides, it's better for MS if that lost laptop sale results in a Windows tablet sale and not another iPad or Android tablet sale wouldn't you say? Which do you think is the bigger lose in revenue?

...and they will get a chunk of everything going through the store. That's the point.

butilikethecookie said,
No. iOS will never lose that much market share. iOS 6 is rumored to be completely refreshed. That will DRAW people to it.

But if it is completely refreshed, then doesn't that mean people will be confused with all the visual changes? That not all apps will work with a radically different model? That developers will need to change all their code, possibly needing a rewrite? That people will be put off by changing what they are accustomed to? That they will be confused in why they will need a different version? That people will resist upgrading because their investment in what they have bought will be lost?

Those are the arguments against WinRT, so wouldn't they apply to iOS 6?

nohone said,

But if it is completely refreshed, then doesn't that mean people will be confused with all the visual changes? That not all apps will work with a radically different model? That developers will need to change all their code, possibly needing a rewrite? That people will be put off by changing what they are accustomed to? That they will be confused in why they will need a different version? That people will resist upgrading because their investment in what they have bought will be lost?

Those are the arguments against WinRT, so wouldn't they apply to iOS 6?

Think Tiger to Leopard, not OS9 to OSX

THolman said,

Think Tiger to Leopard, not OS9 to OSX

If you completely change the UI of the device, then you have problems. When glass was added to Vista, it was pretty but it also was risky and could cause problems in the future for developers. Suppose Windows kept to the desktop only way of developing apps, no Metro style apps. In 5 years, when MS changes their UI to use some other design language. Apps that use glass would not work right - such as the buttons on the top left of Office 2007, would not look right - using glass rather than the current themes, etc. Dimensions of controls would change, causing differences in layout. Imagine iOS switched to a tile like UI (similar to WP7), existing apps would not look right because they would use the old icon rendering style. All causing a lot of confusion for users, and require many updates from developers.

On a desktop OS, it is not too much of a problem, you have HDD to hold the code to enable a compatibility layer (think apps that ran on x86 and PPC on Mac) and CPU to run the compatibility code and the code for the current OS. But for mobile, you don't have the memory nor CPU. Apple is in a tough spot. There are people calling for an massive update (not changing the radio buttons from squircle to round, but real changes) because the UI is stale. But if they do so, then they run the risk of breaking a lot of code. Apple also has a bad track record in compatibility, they don't seem to worry too much about breaking apps between different versions, and letting the developer figure it out. But just like from OS9 -> OSX, and later dropping PPC, Apple gets a pass.

nohone said,

....

We'll see, I suppose I don't think they'll do anything too drastic. They may spruce it up a bit and give it a new coat of paint, but I don't see them radically overhauling something that most people love just because us geeks are bored with it. Chances are they'll tell us to go ugly up a Droid, along with the people who enjoy porn...

Personally, the biggest change I could hope for would be a better way to move apps, and split screen apps on iPad.

nohone said,

But if it is completely refreshed, then doesn't that mean people will be confused with all the visual changes? That not all apps will work with a radically different model? That developers will need to change all their code, possibly needing a rewrite? That people will be put off by changing what they are accustomed to? That they will be confused in why they will need a different version? That people will resist upgrading because their investment in what they have bought will be lost?

Those are the arguments against WinRT, so wouldn't they apply to iOS 6?


there is a jailbreak already that manages windows in ios...
iOS 6 will manage windows for sure. It would be an incredible battle!!!

Android on tablets is a no for me. Without any benchmarks of battery life, I can't decide which tablet to go - iPad or Windows 8. Price is no bar for me. iPad attracts by sheer gorgeous looks, explosive market place and established decent battery life. Who knows the battery life of Windows RT-based tablets may be significantly higher than Windows 8 x86 based ones. These predictions may be completely off the mark without any knowledge of battery life which matters the most in a tablet for me.

xpclient said,
Android on tablets is a no for me. Without any benchmarks of battery life, I can't decide which tablet to go - iPad or Windows 8. Price is no bar for me. iPad attracts by sheer gorgeous looks, explosive market place and established decent battery life. Who knows the battery life of Windows RT-based tablets may be significantly higher than Windows 8 x86 based ones. These predictions may be completely off the mark without any knowledge of battery life which matters the most in a tablet for me.

ARM is worse on battery life than an x86? Really?

nohone said,

ARM is worse on battery life than an x86? Really?

You need to go back to nursery school to learn it all over again.

I hate how WOA was renamed to Windows RT, becuse its to confusing with WinRT (aka immersive) which is the development language for metro tablet apps...

neufuse said,
I hate how WOA was renamed to Windows RT, becuse its to confusing with WinRT (aka immersive) which is the development language for metro tablet apps...

Few people who are out to buy a tablet know what ARM is, calling it Windows on ARM or Windows ARM means just as little to them as calling it Windows RT I think.

GP007 said,

Few people who are out to buy a tablet know what ARM is, calling it Windows on ARM or Windows ARM means just as little to them as calling it Windows RT I think.

but when a developer says they are writing an app in WinRT you confuse the heck out of someone who think they mean an ARM tablet with Windows RT

neufuse said,

but when a developer says they are writing an app in WinRT you confuse the heck out of someone who think they mean an ARM tablet with Windows RT

The Average consumer isn't smart enough to be confused by that.

warwagon said,

The Average consumer isn't smart enough to be confused by that.

Like I said before..... to a developer talking to someone else...... WinRT and Windows RT mean to different things yet they are written like they are the same

neufuse said,

Like I said before..... to a developer talking to someone else...... WinRT and Windows RT mean to different things yet they are written like they are the same

I think it was done on purpose, being that Windows RT will be the premier version to use WinRT apps

neufuse said,

but when a developer says they are writing an app in WinRT you confuse the heck out of someone who think they mean an ARM tablet with Windows RT

Actually it's the exact opposite. You won't be confusing people because people will download Windows RT apps for their windows RT tablet. It actually is the best most common sense way to do this. This makes as little explanation as possible necessary because it will work on all tablets.

Without knowing of any Windows RT tablets coming to market later this year or even in 2013 or their specs, price points I think it's anyones guess as to where or how much of the market they take. Good specs and lower prices than the iPad and I'm willing to bet they get more market share than what NPD is guessing.

I for one will get a Windows 8 tablet, but it's going to be x86 based and not ARM. I think most of us here would do the same.

Drewidian said,
I for one will get a Windows 8 tablet, but it's going to be x86 based and not ARM. I think most of us here would do the same.

I'd be interested in a Win8 x86 hybrid ultrabook but also would be interested in a WinRT ARM tablet only device for the right price just for media playback etc, when I don't need to type anything and don't need a keyboard.

Drewidian said,
I for one will get a Windows 8 tablet, but it's going to be x86 based and not ARM. I think most of us here would do the same.

Possibly, but I'm waiting to see hardware and specs along with benchmarks and more info on the software side of things first - far too many unknowns at the moment.

Drewidian said,
I for one will get a Windows 8 tablet, but it's going to be x86 based and not ARM. I think most of us here would do the same.

I don't know how common my view is (if at all) but I plan to purchase my first tablet either late this year or early next and will choose between Windows RT and Android 5.0 (or whatever they are launching at Google I/O this year) depending on how they stack up (hardware and software).

Drewidian said,
I for one will get a Windows 8 tablet, but it's going to be x86 based and not ARM. I think most of us here would do the same.

I won't. For one, you're probably going to be paying a premium for an x86 tablet. As far as applications goes, Windows RT comes bundled with Office, and I wouldn't want to use a tablet for applications don't enhanced for touch.

I'll take the better battery life and form factor, personally. To each his own, though.

Anthony Tosie said,

I won't. For one, you're probably going to be paying a premium for an x86 tablet. As far as applications goes, Windows RT comes bundled with Office, and I wouldn't want to use a tablet for applications don't enhanced for touch.

I'll take the better battery life and form factor, personally. To each his own, though.

The new version of office does have a touch mode.

pack34 said,

The new version of office does have a touch mode.


I believe what he's saying is he doesn't care about losing x86 application support since most aren't made for touch. The new touch enabled version of Office is included in Windows RT but not in x86 (though OEM's will likely give you a chance to upgrade to it as they do now).

pack34 said,

The new version of office does have a touch mode.


Sorry, that's wasn't what I was saying -- phrased that poorly. Windows RT comes bundled with Office, and Office is designed for both forms of input. But other applications aren't. If you get a Windows 8 tablet for desktop applications, you're going to want to carry around a mouse with you, because traditional applications are going to be a pain with a touch input.

Asmodai said,

I believe what he's saying is he doesn't care about losing x86 application support since most aren't made for touch. The new touch enabled version of Office is included in Windows RT but not in x86 (though OEM's will likely give you a chance to upgrade to it as they do now).

But the glory of an x86 tablet is that it isn't just a tablet. Instead of carring around a laptop and a tablet, you just have one device. Or in the scenario where you bring the tablet with you and leave the laptop at home, you don't need to worry about syncing the two together.

Plus, in the end it'll be cheaper. Instead of paying $800 for a tablet and $1500 for a laptop, you'll just be paying the $1500 price. I used the $800 figure instead of the $500 one because of the storage size. With the x86 you'll probably be seeing a lot of 128 and 256 GB SSDs in them instead of 32 or 64 GB.

Anthony Tosie said,

Sorry, that's wasn't what I was saying -- phrased that poorly. Windows RT comes bundled with Office, and Office is designed for both forms of input. But other applications aren't. If you get a Windows 8 tablet for desktop applications, you're going to want to carry around a mouse with you, because traditional applications are going to be a pain with a touch input.

Not necessarily: I have a Tablet and I use the pen a lot; touch could be useful for a lot of actions but I would never trade MS handwriting capabilities for touch. Of course both of them are welcome......

pack34 said,

The new version of office does have a touch mode.


I think he's talking about other x86 software on a tablet.

pack34 said,

But the glory of an x86 tablet is that it isn't just a tablet. Instead of carring around a laptop and a tablet, you just have one device. Or in the scenario where you bring the tablet with you and leave the laptop at home, you don't need to worry about syncing the two together.

Plus, in the end it'll be cheaper. Instead of paying $800 for a tablet and $1500 for a laptop, you'll just be paying the $1500 price. I used the $800 figure instead of the $500 one because of the storage size. With the x86 you'll probably be seeing a lot of 128 and 256 GB SSDs in them instead of 32 or 64 GB.

What about devices like the ASUS Transformer Prime?

Sraf said,

What about devices like the ASUS Transformer Prime?

I dunno about that since it's individual parts you need to connect but I'm all for a good convertible laptop if it's thin enough and the battery time is there. Sure you'll probably pay extra compared to a normal WinRT tablet but it really depends on what ones needs are.

Of course any WinRT tablet should be able to work with any wired or wireless kb+mouse combo out there just like the Win8 x86 version will. So really, you could use anything out now to more or less "transform" it easily.

Drewidian said,
I for one will get a Windows 8 tablet, but it's going to be x86 based and not ARM. I think most of us here would do the same.
I'm very interested in the prospects for an ARM-based Windows 8 tablet, or even laptop.

I never use my laptop to play video games anymore. I use it to program and to surf the internet. An ARM processor is plenty fast enough for that need, and its battery life blows away current x86 chips. All that is left is to wait and see how things like both C/C++, .NET and Java (I'm talking about the associated programming environments more than the compiled code) actually perform on ARM-based devices, but I suspect it will be pretty well for the things that I do.

Drewidian said,
I for one will get a Windows 8 tablet, but it's going to be x86 based and not ARM. I think most of us here would do the same.

Gonna "+1" that. Planning on a tablet for me, and one for the wife. Though both with be x86.