ryaxnb Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Just an observation, but linux interest ebbs and flows with Windows vitality. Linux peak times included 2001 (MS insecurity) 2005 & 2006 (no new MS OS), 2008 (Vista bomba, XP outdated) and Linux weak times included 2010 (7 made users happy) and 2003 (Windows XP made users relatively happy). So it seems that if Windows 8's much-touted HTML/JS-based UI and Metro style doesn't win over users, then Linux can reap the rewards and get apple-like marketshare again. If MS screws the pooch and makes developers unhappy due to not supporting C, C++ or C# or both in Win8 properly, than obviously Linux can take an even bigger windfall. Similarly, if the Windows App Store is a failure and users become paranoid about app installs because of viruses, then Linux with it's Software Center can take center stages. If however Windows 8 is a success and all the parts align with no backdraft, like Windows 7, Linux will continue it's small base. But, this is important, windows has a horrible backdraft track record, Windows 98, Windows ME, Windows XP pre-SP2(for insecurity), and Windows Vista all had significant backdrafts. Meanwhile Linux has been growing in usefulness and substantialness the whole time, waiting for the biggest backdraft yet. If Windows 8 is that backdraft, well then obviously Linux will get more than a foot in the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soulsiphon Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Wow, that's a whole bunch of if's. (5?) MightyJordan, themew and MikeGMD 3 Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M_Lyons10 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Well, I think that's the case with ANY other OS... I mean, Windows clearly dominates, so if interest in the dominating force wanes, the lesser players are going to pick up some crumbs... But a lot of people will instead wait for another release... I don't think the other OS's pick up as much as Microsoft may lose if a version of Windows is unsuccessful. Too many apps are Windows only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zombieChan Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I've heard this before so many time. But if Windows 8 fails, OS X stands to gain more than Linux. If Windows 8 is terrible, and people don't like it they'll either stay with Win7 or go get a Mac. Very few people will install a Linux Distro. deactivated170812, T M H, +primortal and 1 other 4 Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soulsiphon Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I've heard this before so many time. But if Windows 8 fails, OS X stands to gain more than Linux. If Windows 8 is terrible, and people don't like it they'll either stay with Win7 or go get a Mac. Very few people will install a Linux Distro. Yup. Apple would get the slack. Linux always has been and always will be hobbyistware. Prince781 1 Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M_Lyons10 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I've heard this before so many time. But if Windows 8 fails, OS X stands to gain more than Linux. If Windows 8 is terrible, and people don't like it they'll either stay with Win7 or go get a Mac. Very few people will install a Linux Distro. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zeke009 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Just an observation, but linux interest ebbs and flows with Windows vitality. Linux peak times included 2001 (MS insecurity) 2005 & 2006 (no new MS OS), 2008 (Vista bomba, XP outdated) and Linux weak times included 2010 (7 made users happy) and 2003 (Windows XP made users relatively happy). So it seems that if Windows 8's much-touted HTML/JS-based UI and Metro style doesn't win over users, then Linux can reap the rewards and get apple-like marketshare again. If MS screws the pooch and makes developers unhappy due to not supporting C, C++ or C# or both in Win8 properly, than obviously Linux can take an even bigger windfall. Similarly, if the Windows App Store is a failure and users become paranoid about app installs because of viruses, then Linux with it's Software Center can take center stages. If however Windows 8 is a success and all the parts align with no backdraft, like Windows 7, Linux will continue it's small base. But, this is important, windows has a horrible backdraft track record, Windows 98, Windows ME, Windows XP pre-SP2(for insecurity), and Windows Vista all had significant backdrafts. Meanwhile Linux has been growing in usefulness and substantialness the whole time, waiting for the biggest backdraft yet. If Windows 8 is that backdraft, well then obviously Linux will get more than a foot in the door. Which of the countless variants is the one that will gain? As a rare linux user (basically VM's and old laptops that I get my hands on), I have a hard time selecting which one to try out. Linux is spread so thin I think it's impossible for it to become a mainstream offering. As others noted, if Win8 is a bomb OS X will gain some users. I think most will stick with Win7 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim K Global Moderator Posted June 28, 2011 Global Moderator Share Posted June 28, 2011 ha...I remember reading posts like this in the late 90's. The only time Linux had a chance to make significant ground on the desktop was during Windows ME. Even through ME's failure, Linux barely grabbed ground. Linux is a good alternative, I run Ubuntu on my notebook just so I can keep fresh with an alternative operating system. However, it is no match for Windows on the desktop (servers are a different story). While true that Linux has become a lot more user friendly, the whole argument that Linux will make a significant jump in market share is something that has been said for over a decade now, something which hasn't come into fruition. In your scenario, if this "back-draft" were to occur...Windows 7 would be the fall back. People held onto XP for a decade...so many will not see the need in upgrading to Windows 8. Soulsiphon, he forgot the part about "if pigs could fly". ...and dang ryaxnb...only 4 posts since '03. :blink: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolvesHunt Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Just like vista, if windows 8 bombs Im sure windows 7 Can hold out 10+ years with out user being too annoyed. If windows xp did it, win7 x64 could easily do it windows 7 could easily live out 2 new windows releases. In fact windows 7 x64 could live for a very long time until x128 comes out and goes mainstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McCordRm Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Microsoft has had "failed" OS launches before. You know what happened? People kept using Windows XP. If Windows 8 fails, people will just skip it until another Windows 7 comes along and makes changing worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyfrog Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 People would just keep using Windows 7. Did people switch to Linux when Vista came out or did they stick with XP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soulsiphon Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Hey also, before this de-evolves into a Linux vs. Windows thread I want to go on the record and say that I like Linux. I run the freshest Ubuntu I can although I was a HUGE Gentoo fan for years and before that, a solid Red Hat and Mandrake user. As a developer I like to remain platform-agnostic because that keeps my skills marketable. Looking at an end-user like my mom; she simply wouldn't fall-back to a platform she might have to build proper WiFi drivers for to simply play Solitaire and check Hotmail. From a corporate standpoint, we all know that if the Next version of Windows doesn't work, they'll keep on using Windows XP anyway. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tech Star Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Every Windows that comes out people say the same thing. And every time Windows still succeeds. Xerax, Panda X, dknm and 12 others 15 Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BletchleyPark Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 People would just keep using Windows 7. Did people switch to Linux when Vista came out or did they stick with XP? Actually Vista was when I moved to a Mac. Don't get me wrong I really found nothing WRONG in Vista. I never had any performance problems with it. It just... bored me and seemed clunky with usability problems. I love using 7, but not enough to move back to a Windows PC yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soulsiphon Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Actually Vista was when I moved to a Mac. Don't get me wrong I really found nothing WRONG in Vista. I never had any performance problems with it. It just... bored me and seemed clunky with usability problems. I love using 7, but not enough to move back to a Windows PC yet. cuz then you would have to change your name to atPC :p Coi 1 Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayepecks Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Linux won't gain anything. Mac OS X will gain if Windows 8 fails. I'm sorry, but Linux isn't a well-known or respected brand name, and no one is honestly going to recommend it to the average consumer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ci7 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Actually Vista was when I moved to a Mac. Don't get me wrong I really found nothing WRONG in Vista. I never had any performance problems with it. It just... bored me and seemed clunky with usability problems. I love using 7, but not enough to move back to a Windows PC yet. then 8 is going to convert you :cool: zombieChan 1 Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medium_pimpin Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 No. Windows 7 stands to gain if Windows 8 fails. However, I would prefer to avoid another 'decade OS' like XP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ci7 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 No. Windows 7 stands to gain if Windows 8 fails. However, I would prefer to avoid another 'decade OS' like XP. no worries , they churn yet another OS ~2014 won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aaron Olive Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Every Windows that comes out people say the same thing. And every time Windows still succeeds. Exactly, windows is not going to lose ground and from what I've seen windows 8 is shaping up nicely, hell you can't use the adobe suites or play all of the latest gaming software on Linux so what is this Linux gain nonsense coming from. :laugh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomoko Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Every year since the late 90s has been the year Linux will start going mainstream. It's almost like the rapture now. :laugh: I think every OEM has tried selling Linux on their computers, and even Walmart tried to sell PCs with it. No one wanted it. Jen Smith, Prince781, zombieChan and 1 other 4 Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolvesHunt Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Every year since the late 90s has been the year Linux will start going mainstream. It's almost like the rapture now. :laugh: I think every OEM has tried selling Linux on their computers, and even Walmart tried to sell PCs with it. No one wanted it. I Proclaim that linux will take millions of people with it on May 21 2011. And the end of *Windows* will be on Nov 21 2001.... Seeing that millions still use windows after may 21 I betting nov will be a dud too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ichi Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Linux success on the desktop has little/nothing to do with anything MS does (at least on the fair side of things, shady deals are a different issue and kinda irrelevant for this thread). It depends on it's own merits, which includes software support by third parties like game devs, Adobe and the likes... basically, availability of mainstream software titles or better alternatives (people won't bother switching to something different that is only just as good). It also needs better support from hardware devs. As it is, Linux supports more hardware devices than Windows and OSX, but it's not the number of drivers but the quality of those for mainstream desktop hardware where it's sometimes lacking (gfx cards, wifi, 3g dongles...). It's not THAT bad, and it's improving, but again to get people to switch to something different you must offer something that's not just good enough or about as good, but definitely better (or perceived as such, at least). It also needs corporate backing for OEM adoption (something that Canonical is doing to some extent) to avoid screw ups like all those netbooks with crappy distros that in some cases didn't even properly support the very hardware they shipped with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shellcoder Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 When Vista failed, millions moved to Mac and after switching to Mac they would never switch to Windows because OS X is simply the best operating system. Yes it did increase Linux market share too. Win ME was a failure, XP replaced it. Vista was a failure, 7 replaced it. Another major version of Windows, I see another failure from Microsoft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorak Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 When Vista failed, millions moved to Mac and after switching to Mac they would never switch to Windows because OS X is simply the best operating system. Yes it did increase Linux market share too. Win ME was a failure, XP replaced it. Vista was a failure, 7 replaced it. Another major version of Windows, I see another failure from Microsoft... Millions did? Hrmm, maybe. Just because of the release of Vista? Doubtful. When Vista came out, there were already promises for everything to be fixed in a future Windows release (7). So people either stayed on XP, went back to XP, or dealt with Vista until 7 came out. I ran Vista on this very PC and it was flawless. I only had to use it for two months until 7 came out. So if people do not like change, they are not going to change to something completely different. Linux has seen a steady increase in market share over the past five years or so. A steady, but very very slow incline. So basically I am saying that if Windows 8 or whatever it may be called is released and it flops due to a completely new GUI, etc., it will not matter because there are millions of people happy with Windows 7 as it stands right now. Or XP. Or maybe even Vista, for that matter. Linux will not gain any faster than it already is. It never will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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