Cisco: Annual global IP traffic will surpass the zettabyte threshold by 201


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Executive Summary

Annual global IP traffic will surpass the zettabyte threshold (1.3 zettabytes) by the end of 2016. In 2016, global IP traffic will reach 1.3 zettabytes per year or 109.5 exabytes per month.

Global IP traffic has increased eightfold over the past 5 years, and will increase threefold over the next 5 years. Overall, IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29 percent from 2011 to 2016.

In 2016, the gigabyte equivalent of all movies ever made will cross global IP networks every 3 minutes. Global IP networks will deliver 12.5 petabytes every 5 minutes in 2016.

The number of devices connected to IP networks will be nearly three times as high as the global population in 2016. There will be nearly three networked devices per capita in 2016, up from over one networked device per capita in 2011. Driven in part by the increase in devices and the capabilities of those devices, IP traffic per capita will reach 15 gigabytes per capita in 2016, up from 4 gigabytes per capita in 2011.

A growing amount of IP and Internet traffic is originating with non-PC devices. In 2011, 22 percent of IP traffic originated with non-PC devices, but by 2016 the non-PC share of IP traffic will grow to 31 percent. In 2011, only 6 percent of consumer Internet traffic originated with non-PC devices, but by 2016 the non-PC share of consumer Internet traffic will grow to 19 percent. PC-originated traffic will grow at a CAGR of 26 percent, while TVs, tablets, smartphones, and machine-to-machine (M2M) modules will have growth rates of 77 percent, 129 percent, 119 percent, and 86 percent, respectively.

Traffic from wireless devices will exceed traffic from wired devices by 2016. In 2016, wired devices will account for 39 percent of IP traffic, while Wi-Fi and mobile devices will account for 61 percent of IP traffic. In 2011, wired devices accounted for the majority of IP traffic at 55 percent.

Busy-hour traffic is growing more rapidly than average traffic. Busy-hour Internet traffic will increase nearly fivefold by 2016, while average traffic will increase nearly fourfold. Busy-hour Internet traffic will reach 720 Tbps in 2016, the equivalent of 600 million people streaming Internet high-definition video simultaneously.

Video Highlights

It would take over 6 million years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks each month in 2016. Every second, 1.2 million minutes of video content will cross the network in 2016.

Globally, Internet video traffic will be 54 percent of all consumer Internet traffic in 2016, up from 51 percent in 2011. This does not include video exchanged through peer-to-peer (P2P) file sharing. Video exceeded half of global consumer Internet traffic by year-end 2011. The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand [VoD], Internet, and P2P) will be approximately 86 percent of global consumer traffic by 2016.

Internet video to TV doubled in 2011. Internet video to TV will continue to grow at a rapid pace, increasing sixfold by 2016. Internet video to TV traffic will be 11 percent of consumer Internet video traffic in 2016, up from 8 percent in 2011.

Video-on-demand traffic will triple by 2016. The amount of VoD traffic in 2016 will be equivalent to 4 billion DVDs per month.

High-definition video-on-demand surpassed standard definition by the end of 2011. By 2016, high-definition Internet video will comprise 79 percent of VoD.

Mobile Highlights

Globally, mobile data traffic will increase 18-fold between 2011 and 2016. Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 78 percent between 2011 and 2016, reaching 10.8 exabytes per month by 2016.

Global mobile data traffic will grow three times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2011 to 2016. Global mobile data traffic was 2 percent of total IP traffic in 2011, and will be 10 percent of total IP traffic in 2016.

Regional Highlights

IP traffic is growing fastest in the Middle East and Africa, followed by Latin America. Traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 57 percent between 2011 and 2016.

IP traffic in North America will reach 28 exabytes per month by 2016, at a CAGR of 22 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in North America will generate 5 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 18.2 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in Western Europe will reach 24.3 exabytes per month by 2016, at a CAGR of 27 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Western Europe will generate 5 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 20.3 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in Asia Pacific will reach 40.5 exabytes per month by 2016, at a CAGR of 31 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Asia Pacific will generate 9 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 40 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in Latin America will reach 7.6 exabytes per month by 2016, at a CAGR of 49 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Latin America will generate 2 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 7 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will reach 6 exabytes per month by 2016, at a CAGR of 39 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will generate 1 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 5.1 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will reach 3.7 exabytes per month by 2016, at a CAGR of 57 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in the Middle East and Africa will generate 836 million DVDs' worth of traffic, or 3.3 exabytes per month.

Global Business Highlights

Business IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 22 percent from 2011 to 2016. Increased adoption of advanced video communications in the enterprise segment will cause business IP traffic to grow by a factor of 3 between 2011 and 2016.

Business Internet traffic will grow at a faster pace than IP WAN. IP WAN will grow at a CAGR of 18 percent, compared to a CAGR of 23 percent for fixed business Internet and 66 percent for mobile business Internet.

Business videoconferencing will grow sixfold over the forecast period. Business videoconferencing traffic is growing significantly faster than overall business IP traffic, at a CAGR of 48 percent between 2011 and 2016.

Web-based videoconferencing will reach 56.3 percent of total business videoconferencing traffic in 2011. Web-based videoconferencing will grow faster than average business videoconferencing, at a CAGR of 45 percent.

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Business IP traffic will grow fastest in the Middle East and Africa. Business IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 33 percent, a faster pace than the global average of 20 percent. In volume, North America will have the largest amount of business IP traffic in 2016 at 3.3 exabytes per month. Western Europe will be a close second to North America at 2.9 exabytes per month.

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Wow - I never thought about global transmissions. When I think about zettabytes, yottabytes, and exabytes, is usually how much data it would take to fill it, etc...

I always wonder how long it will be before we have to come up with a word for 1000 yottabytes. ....

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