[AIAA panel question] What Happens if SpaceX Beats NASA to Mars?

[DocM]

AIAA = American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics

 

https://www.inverse.com/article/21052-what-happens-if-spacex-beats-nasa-to-mars

 

What Happens if SpaceX Beats NASA to Mars?

 

At a panel discussion Thursday about the “Journey to Mars” at the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics’s annual Explore SPACE Forum, one question stood out among the rest.

What happens if SpaceX send humans to Mars before NASA?

After all, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has been exceptionally clear about his goal to send a crewed spacecraft to the red planet by the year 2025. (It’s unclear if this vehicle would land on the surface or not, but judging by the company’s express plans to design its Red Dragon capsule as a landing craft, it’s difficult to imagine the company would avoid trying a landing attempt. In any case, a 2025 crewed mission would be way ahead of what NASA has planned.)

There are a ton of things SpaceX has to troubleshoot before a crewed mission to Mars is even close to possible — the company hasn’t even sent humans into orbit yet! Still, it’s not unthinkable.

Faced with such a prospect, William Gerstenmaier, NASA’s associate administrator for human exploration and operations, had a very astute response: “It’s not a competition.”

He went on to explain that whichever company or agency first able to make it to the red planet is irrelevant to the bigger picture of expanding the presence of humanity into deep space. “It advances us as a species,” he said. NASA is rooting for SpaceX and the success of the Red Dragon program as much as Musk and his team are rooting for NASA.

And for good reason. NASA and SpaceX are each equipped with their own set of advantages and disadvantages. The $20 billion-ish federal agency is a powerhouse of scientific and technological expertise. In its partnership with SpaceX, NASA is able to provide the know-how for how to conduct a launch and a successful, safe spaceflight. The agency can facilitate deep space communications using existing infrastructure so that SpaceX crews can still talk to ground control.

Unfortunately, NASA is hampered by the fact that it can’t move as fast as a private company. “If we tried to do this mission and tried to pull this together,” said Gerstenmaier, “we’d have to certify everything” and ensure 100 percent success.

But “SpaceX,” he said, “can take these risks.”

What does NASA get in return? Because SpaceX can conduct missions much faster and more frequently than NASA, they can provide the agency with essential data regarding rocket launches, descending into the Martian atmosphere, and landing on the surface of the red planet.

And that could be a treasure trove of data. “Our plan is that at every opportunity, we would like to send a Red Dragon to Mars,” said Abhishek Tripathi, the director of the certification program at SpaceX. Partnering with NASA, he explained, is a mutual benefit all around.

At the panel, Gerstenmaier was also able to provide insight as to why NASA is seemingly ignoring a resurrection of a lunar program — even though the moon is thought to be key to helping send astronauts to Mars.

Gerstenmaier explained that building a lunar lander and sending it to the moon’s surface would not provide any essential data on how to descend and land a spacecraft on Mars, because the moon has no atmosphere whatsoever. “It doesn’t have much play forward,” he explained.

SpaceX, having expressed no plans to send any spacecraft to the moon either, seems to feel the same way.

[Unobscured Vision]

After considering the idea for a few moments, he might have a point.

 

Consider that we pretty much know the ins and outs of Mars' environment now. We know that we can replicate those conditions here on Earth using Environment Simulators too. Using that information, we can build gear that we can reasonably be assured will work there, within a margin of error (+/- .1%) that's acceptable to NASA's Unmanned Commercial Standards for testing; and whatever doesn't work will be evaluated and redesigned so that it does work (covering that .1% margin to .01%).

 

We can rapid prototype and test just about anything nowadays without the need to send it anywhere long-distance. So yeah, I can see his point.

 

They want things in the realm of "freak accident under insane conditions that should never ever happen", and even then they've got a contingency & a backup for it. Thanks to the R&D tools that NASA, SpaceX, and the usual "OldSpace Players" have at their disposal now, stuff that used to take years (or never) now takes a couple of weeks and a mere fraction of the cost(s) it otherwise would have.  

[DocM]

Nor to mention that it's not unreasonable to assume a large vehicle like BFS could haul up a small CnC, metal and polymer 3D printers, feed stock, and a computer capable of running the Siemens software they use at Hawthorne and their bleeding edge CFD tools. 

 

Need something? Effing make it.

[Unobscured Vision]

And it's effing fantastic what can be made with Autodesk, Siemens & other software and ... well ... the right equipment & tools.  Keep the weight down and MCT can haul a fair amount of all of it plus the Technical Expertise to put it into use.

 

If the ISRU works out like it should, Mars is gonna be one sweet Mission set for Humans. When the Base 3D Prints a set of Solar Panels with the label "Made on Mars", I'll be a happy individual.  

[DocM]

Early on they said 100 tonnes of cargo on BFS. That's a helluva lot of maker hardware, tools and materials.

[Draggendrop Veteran]

Just my opinion....

 

I honestly do not know why this is even a question.

 

SpaceX was founded for Mars.

 

Newspace, worldwide, is the future.

 

Being blunt....NASA is a marionette for congress, and until something is done about this, the tortoise will loose this race. NASA's science base will always be top notch, but they need to stay out of the mega projects and divorce themselves from the "usual characters".

 

If anyone needs confirmation about this, just look around the world at all the other smaller space agencies and what they are accomplishing with minimal budgets. The SLS drag is real evident and it's about to get a lot worse.

 

[DocM]

SLS won't even reach a manned Mars mission capable version until flight 5, about 2027 if they don't slip again. It needs the expendable RS-25 (2027), Exploration Upper Stage and other major parts. Orion is at best a cislunar capable vehicle, a taxi to shuttle between the exploration stack and Earth.

 

That stack; propulsion, habs, cargo, crew Mars lander etc. can't even be started until ISS is off NASA's budget. At the earliest that's 2024, ot 2028 if they stretch it out. Then it either goes commercial or into the drink. From either date, based on past performance, it'll take 10-15 years to finish the exploration stack. 

 

Or, they could just call Musk and buy rides on BFS until Blue has their option ready. Between the two, and BFS targeting missions beyond Mars, things get interesting fast.

[Draggendrop Veteran]

Agreed, but congress has backed NASA into another hole....

 

Senators introduce NASA authorization bill

 

Quote

The bill also addresses planning for the eventual end of the ISS in the 2020s, stating that there is a need for an “orderly transition” from the current NASA-led management of the station to “a regime where NASA is one of many customers of a low Earth orbit commercial human space flight enterprise.”

 

That provision would require NASA to assess its needs for continued research in low Earth orbit after the ISS is retired, the existing and projected commercial capabilities to meet those needs, and steps NASA can take to stimulate both the supply of commercial facilities and demand for their use. The bill also calls on NASA to study an extension of the ISS “through at least 2028” to identify the technical issues, scientific benefits, and costs of such an extension.

 

Other sections of the bill address human space exploration beyond Earth orbit, endorsing continued development of the Space Launch System and Orion spacecraft as well as deep space habitats that NASA has proposed developing for tests in cislunar space in the 2020s.

 

The bill specifically calls on NASA to develop a “strategic framework” for human space exploration that includes “a critical decision plan to expand human presence beyond low Earth orbit, including to cislunar space, the moon of Mars, the surface of Mars, and beyond.”

 

That framework would include a series of objectives leading to humans orbiting or on Mars in the 2030s, identification of precursor missions in cislunar space, potential roles for international and commercial partners, and necessary technologies. The “critical decision plan” included in the framework would identify decisions that must be made by June 2020 to keep the overall framework on schedule.

emphasis added...

http://spacenews.com/senators-introduce-nasa-authorization-bill/

 

Here we see NASA being saddled with a "future cost" to find an orderly exit from ISS, plan to "lease" commercial space and to help with the start-up of such commercial activities (hence funding). NASA will not save anything and we know where that is going, subsidizing one or two of the commercial entrants (congress approved, of course) that we have previously discussed.

 

There will have to be a major budget increase, or some expenditures will suffer.

 

This should not happen to NASA.     

[Unobscured Vision]

"We want you to commit to several long-term things at once, but we're not gonna give you any extra funding that you'd require to actually do any of it. You're saddled for the next 15 years, minimum, with these commitments, whether it's in your interests or not. Go with God, and go $#&% yourselves at the same time.".

 

That's pretty much what Congress is saying to NASA. What a shame.  

[Draggendrop Veteran]

It is a real crime for this to happen to an outstanding organization such as NASA.

 

The root of all "science evil" is congress.

 

We need scientists making the decisions for NASA, not (insert verb) politicians.

 

The last time we went hunting for intelligent life, we came up empty handed....

 

The Expanse