The secret to North Korea’s ICBM success

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DocM    12,460
Posted (edited)

How advanced?

 

Russia's Energomash and Ukraine's Yuzhnoye have been  tied to NK's new rocket engine - it looks like a modified RD-250; a single chamber instead of two with a new turbopump. Likely obtained in the last 2 years.

 

Yuzhnoye makes the first stage for Orbital Sciences Antares 200 & 300 rocket, and Energomash makes its RD-171 engine.  Energomash also makes the RD-180 engine used in the United Launch Allance (a Boeing-Lockheed joint venture) Atlas V launcher.

 

Even if these were diverted by a criminal network and not through the respective governments, the poo is heading for the fan.

 

http://www.iiss.org/en/iiss voices/blogsections/iiss-voices-2017-adeb/august-2b48/north-korea-icbm-success-3abb

 

Quote

The secret to North Korea’s ICBM success

 

How has North Korea managed to make such astounding progress with its long-range missile programme over the last two years? Here, Michael Elleman shares the first solid evidence that North Korea has acquired a high-performance liquid-propellant engine from illicit networks in Russia and Ukraine.
>

 

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+Mirumir    5,063

"What goes around comes around..."

 

Of course the Ukrs deny everything.

 

Quote

 

North Korea’s Missile Success Is Linked to Ukrainian Plant, Investigators Say

 

North Korea’s success in testing an intercontinental ballistic missile that appears able to reach the United States was made possible by black-market purchases of powerful rocket engines probably from a Ukrainian factory with historical ties to Russia’s missile program, according to an expert analysis being published Monday and classified assessments by American intelligence agencies.

 

The studies may solve the mystery of how North Korea began succeeding so suddenly after a string of fiery missile failures, some of which may have been caused by American sabotage :shiftyninja:of its supply chains and cyberattacks on its launches. After those failures, the North changed designs and suppliers in the past two years, according to a new study by Michael Elleman, a missile expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

 

 

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Jim K    8,600

//duplicate threads merged.

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PGHammer    173

As much as folks want to deny it, Mirumir is spot-on here - diversion of such things is why the gray market (and even the black market) in dual-use materials and technologies has thrived for longer than I have been alive - and longer than Jim K has been alive - put together; it's profitable, and darn difficult to enforce with any teeth.

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+FloatingFatMan    12,740

I have no problem believing they got their tech on the black market. Russia and its former satellites, have been swiss cheesed ever since the fall of communism.  I also have no problem believing they bought them through actual government channels from one or more of these nations, on the down low...

 

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PGHammer    173
1 minute ago, FloatingFatMan said:

I have no problem believing they got their tech on the black market. Russia and its former satellites, have been swiss cheesed ever since the fall of communism.  I also have no problem believing they bought them through actual government channels from one or more of these nations, on the down low...

 

I don't either, Floating.  Consider how one of the greatest sources for keeping up with Russian technology actually works - the Missile Intelligence Agency.  (It's not secret; in fact, it's been one of the most obvious intelligence tools of the Cold War - and one of the most successful in terms of following missile technology in general.)  The MIA is, rather fittingly, based at Redstone Arsenal, in Alabama (fitting because Redstone Arsenal is a core part of the United States' own DOMESTIC missile-propulsion program since the beginning).  MIA has used the gray AND black markets to purchase parts from Russian (and other) nations' missiles - which, rather cutely, ALSO lets us (not just the United States, but other interested agencies, such as the UN) know who (and how) would-be prohibited-tech proliferators go about their rather pernicious business (bills of lading are a rather nasty paper trail).  The reality of the who - and the how - of missile-tech proliferation has become obvious largely DUE to those "good ole boys" from Alabama  being on the case since Reagan's first term.  There ARE other ways that the US (if not other governments) get their hands on the no-no tech that proliferators are selling - however, the same way that the cops do drug buys is usually the easiest - which is exactly how the MIA (and other parts of the IC) does their business.

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Slarlac249    252

what needs to happen is, the borders need to be closed so nothing can get in or out of NK, all flights in and out should be stopped.

 

 

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techbeck    4,770
2 minutes ago, Slarlac249 said:

what needs to happen is, the borders need to be closed so nothing can get in or out of NK, all flights in and out should be stopped.

Won't happen.   What I fear will happen is war or NK doing something stupid and bombing themselves or a neighbors by accident.  Read something earlier that the mountain they are testing their bombs in is close to collapsing.  Which if that happens, radiation will spread everywhere. 

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Steven P.    8,535
15 minutes ago, techbeck said:

Hopefully this will cause NK's neighbors to act.  Kinda doubt it tho.

That region can't catch a break can it? Although Japan's Nuclear plant meltdown radiation drifted to the East (over the Pacific).

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techbeck    4,770
2 minutes ago, Steven P. said:

That region can't catch a break can it? Although Japan's Nuclear plant meltdown radiation drifted to the East (over the Pacific).

Was also reading somewhere that what NK is doing is going against China's plan on getting the US out of the area.  I will have to look for that article later if anyone wants to see it.

 

And at least Japan's nuclear meltdown was not planned and hard to avoid.  Anything NK does to endanger their neighbors or to tick off the wrong people may mean the end of NK as we know it.  Shall have to see.

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Steven P.    8,535
3 minutes ago, techbeck said:

Was also reading somewhere that what NK is doing is going against China's plan on getting the US out of the area.  I will have to look for that article later if anyone wants to see it.

 

And at least Japan's nuclear meltdown was not planned and hard to avoid.  Anything NK does to endanger their neighbors or to tick off the wrong people may mean the end of NK as we know it.  Shall have to see.

The US backing out of the China Sea is never going to happen so long as China doesn't respect the internationally recognised sea borders around the Phillipines and other countries, as well as building artificial islands in the disputed territory, more on that. Or did you mean another region the US should back out of? Because SK won't happen either :p

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techbeck    4,770
6 minutes ago, Steven P. said:

The US backing out of the China Sea is never going to happen so long as China doesn't respect the internationally recognised sea borders around the Phillipines and other countries, as well as building artificial islands in the disputed territory, more on that. Or did you mean another region the US should back out of? Because SK won't happen either :p

US is in the area to stay, agreed.  Will have to find the article.  Read it late last night when I was half awake.

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Jim K    8,600
27 minutes ago, Draconian Guppy said:

But hydrogen bombs arent radioactive? (the latest was hydrogen no?)

They are radioactive...using uranium or plutonium for the boom.  The difference between hydrogen and "regular" atomic bombs is one relies on fusion (H-bomb) and the other fission.  If I'm not mistaken, some H-bombs variations may not even have hydrogen isotopes.

 

That is the quick and dirty version... much more complex.

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Draconian Guppy    12,301
1 minute ago, Jim K said:

They are radioactive...using uranium or plutonium for the boom.  The difference between hydrogen and "regular" atomic bombs is one relies on fusion (H-bomb) and the other fission.  If I'm not mistaken, some H-bombs variations may not even have hydrogen isotopes.

 

That is the quick and dirty version... much more complex.

ah my bad! in my ignorance I thought "Hydrogen" bombs meant they weren't radioactive!, so they both leave fallout?

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+ctebah    2,605
50 minutes ago, Draconian Guppy said:

ah my bad! in my ignorance I thought "Hydrogen" bombs meant they weren't radioactive!, so they both leave fallout?

Thermonuclear bombs use an atomic bomb at its core to start the fusion reaction.  The fusion itself gives off almost no radiation, but it’s the atomic explosion that does.  

 

The radiation fallout from these tests would be minimal.  Most of the radiation is absorbed by the surrounding earth.  Don’t believe sensanstionalist articles that only try and scare people.   

2 hours ago, Slarlac249 said:

what needs to happen is, the borders need to be closed so nothing can get in or out of NK, all flights in and out should be stopped.

 

 

No.  More suffering on the North Koreans is not the answer.  The only way to solve this is dialogue, something that NK is prepared to do but SK and it’s partners aren’t.  

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Slarlac249    252

since when is nk prepared to talk when they constantly test weapons? if they wanted peace they'd stop being so crazy.

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Draconian Guppy    12,301
30 minutes ago, Slarlac249 said:

since when is nk prepared to talk when they constantly test weapons? if they wanted peace they'd stop being so crazy.

yup I was going to ask just that!

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techbeck    4,770
38 minutes ago, Slarlac249 said:

since when is nk prepared to talk when they constantly test weapons? if they wanted peace they'd stop being so crazy.

They are going to blow themselves up or worse, one of their neighbors. US is looking at an options now and stated that talking with them is pretty much useless at this point. 

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Yogurth    1,304

It is a perfect deterrent in a nuclear world, especially for aggressive nations like the USA. Even if NK government is crazy it was the "sane" nation that was the only one in the history that used a nuclear weapon against an enemy, against civilian targets no less.

Edited by Yogurth
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+ctebah    2,605
52 minutes ago, Slarlac249 said:

since when is nk prepared to talk when they constantly test weapons? if they wanted peace they'd stop being so crazy.

Their nuclear weapons is the only thing that’s keeping them from turning into another Iraq, Syria or Libya.  Without them, the US would have invaded long ago.  

 

I’m glad NK is standing up for themselves.  

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techbeck    4,770
38 minutes ago, Yogurth said:

Even if NK government is crazy it was the "sane" nation that was the only one in the history that used a nuclear weapon against an enemy, against civilian targets no less.

Any why I don't think we will use another one and probably why no one has used one since. Was no good for anyone.

 

Way nk is going they will do so whether or not intentional 

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Yogurth    1,304
Just now, techbeck said:

Any why I don't think we will use another one and probably why no one has used one since. 

Let us hope so, but with Your government constant beating of the drums of war, creating wars and conflicts where they do not exist I am inclined to believe that to be a slim chance.

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