Tesla Vehicle/Gigafactory/Solarcity/Solar Roof News and Updates Megathread


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DocM

The $45k Model 3 is an intermediate range version on the way to the $35k vehicle which comes out this winter.

 

 

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Draggendrop

Looks like reality is starting to sink in....

 

The Tesla Killer’s death and Elon Musk’s long-term play on batteries, vertical integration

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snip

 

For years, Tesla skeptics have pointed at upcoming competition from legacy automakers as a reason for the impending fall of the electric car maker. Just like Herbert Deiss, many of Tesla’s critics pointed out that legacy auto’s years of experience, as well as their network of factories, should allow them to leapfrog Tesla in the electric car market as soon as they decide to enter the electric car market.

 

As companies like Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Jaguar, and Porsche are learning today, though, it is not so simple to build a compelling electric car that’s capable of challenging Tesla’s premium vehicles in their respective segments. Mercedes-Benz, for one, has announced that the EQC — its plush competitor for the Model X — will adopt a gradual rollout due to possible warranty concerns over the vehicle’s battery and other electric car components. German news agency Bild am Sonntag recently noted that the Audi e-tron would be released later than expected as well, due to a software issue and ongoing discussions with its battery provider, LG Chem, which is allegedly adjusting the price of the vehicle’s batteries.

 

Even legacy carmakers that seem to be fully embracing the transition to electrified transport seem to be learning a lesson in designing and producing electric cars. Jaguar, for one, recently confirmed that the I-PACE has a range of 234 miles per charge, lower than the company’s initial estimates for the vehicle. Porsche, on the other hand, is preparing to build the Taycan, but even workers at its plant in Stuttgart, Germany have to pitch in to make the car a reality. Porsche head of production Albrecht Reimold, for one, noted that employees at the Taycan’s upcoming factory would not have regular salary increases for the next few years as the Taycan’s factory gets constructed.

 

With legacy automakers revealing their highly-anticipated Tesla competitors, and with each company running into challenges of their own, analysts are starting to retire myth of the “Tesla Killer.” Last month, Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein, a known skeptic of the electric car maker, stated that the Model 3 faces “no credible competition” from legacy auto until at least 2020. More recently, Berenberg analyst Alexander Haissl reiterated a Buy rating on TSLA stock with a $500 price target, stating that fears over competition from legacy automakers are overblown. Haissl further noted that Tesla’s driving ranges and vehicle efficiencies are well ahead of the competition.

 

Perhaps the most notable death knell on the Tesla Killer myth came from known TSLA short-seller-turned-long Andrew Left of Citron Research; who pointed out that “there is NO Tesla killer. Competition is nowhere to be found, and no electric vehicle is slated to launch at the Model 3 price point until 2021.”

 

Ultimately, Tesla’s prominent lead in the electric car market is the culmination of Elon Musk’s long-term play on electric car batteries and the company’s vertical integration. Since Tesla is producing its own battery cells from Panasonic’s lines in Gigafactory 1, the company is saving itself from any of the issues currently being faced by Audi as it struggles to reach a deal with LG Chem for the e-tron’s batteries, or Mercedes-Benz as it deals with uncertainties over the EQC’s battery warranty. The deep integration of Tesla’s hardware and software also creates a unified user experience that is not unlike Apple, allowing the company’s electric cars to perform at their best and preventing issues such as those being faced by Jaguar with regards to the I-PACE’s apparent inefficiency.

 

snip

(bolding for emphasis)

 

more at the link...

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-killer-death-elon-musk-electric-car-batteries/

 

Knew this was coming eventually....very tough to beat "in house" and more importantly....Tesla has an impressive engineering department of their own, tough enough to keep up to rapid innovation...

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DocM

Top-notch Detroit area auto  consultant Sandy Munro advises auto companies worldwide. 

 

In his Model 3 teardown he was shocked to find Teslas cells had a ~30% higher power density than he'd seen, and he compared Tesla's electronics & computers to the F-35 and other MilSpec.

 

Wait 'til he sees their new self-drive AI processors and box. Also the new "harness" tech on Model Y; it takes the total  harness length from Model 3's 5,000 feet to just 328 feet.

Edited by DocM
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Unobscured Vision

Yup ... all the improvements are going to shock everyone. In a good way, of course.

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DocM

The shorters just got wedgied....

 

Tesla Q3 results

 

Wall Street expectations
Earnings: -$0.16/share (loss)
Revenue: $6.33 billion

 

Q3 results
Earnings: $1.76/share
Revenue: $6.8 billion 
Profit: $312 million (after taxes)

 

Free cash flow
Q2: $436 million
Q3: $739 million

 

Model 3 margin: 20%
Labor hours for Model 3: -30% (below Models S and X)

$45,000 Model 3 introduced

 

$35,000 Model 3 end of year-ish

 

Model Y (crossover) platform announcement March 2019 or sooner

 

Repaid $82.5 million in bonds

 

Q4 will see more of the same. Also 3 new battery lines, and another production line.

 

Stock (after hours): $323.01 at 1755E

 

 

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Tom Randall ✓ @tsrandall (Bloomberg)
Tesla just released some knockout earnings. Free cash flow of $881 million and a net profit of $312 million. Including the after-hours trading, the stock is up 25% over the past two days. Here are a some of the key takeaways 1/
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First, they killed analyst estimates pretty much across the board. They now have $3 billion in cash on hand. That's should be plenty to cover the $1.5 billion in debt coming due in the next year, assuming they can keep the FCF positive 2/
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They've had surprisingly little attrition of their reservations. They stopped taking new reservations in July, and of the 455k they had a year ago, only 20% have canceled. A lot of those will be waiting for cheaper versions or are overseas holders 3/
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This is the first time Tesla has had a profitable quarter without the contribution of California's Zero Emission Vehicle credits. This quarter they claimed $52 million in creditsa relatively small contribution to their profit. To some, that makes it the first "legit" profit 4/
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Tesla says the gross margin for the Model 3 will "remain stable" in Q4, even as more customers start dipping into the cheaper $45,000 version of the car Tesla just released. Tesla says the cheaper prices will be offset by manufacturing efficiencies. Key metric to watch 5/
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"This, to me, is a real watershed moment," says BNEF's @SalimMorsy. "They are profoundly shifting purchasing economics and behavior in the car market." He says he's impressed by # of trading in $30k cars, seeing them as more than a utility. Like iPhone vs landline phone 6/

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FloatingFatMan

I watched a really interesting video on YT the other day where some experts dismantled and analysed a Model 3.. What they found was VERY interesting, and telling.

 

 

Basically, Tesla's motors and batteries are way ahead of the competition, but the bodywork is a complete mess and could be made for a fraction of the cost if they used established manufacturing methods for it instead of the incredibly wasteful and manpower heavy methods they're using right now.  Existing manufacturers decades of experience is a huge advantage there.

 

 

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DocM
16 minutes ago, FloatingFatMan said:

I watched a really interesting video on YT the other day where some experts dismantled and analysed a Model 3.. What they found was VERY interesting, and telling.

 

 

Basically, Tesla's motors and batteries are way ahead of the competition, but the bodywork is a complete mess and could be made for a fraction of the cost if they used established manufacturing methods for it instead of the incredibly wasteful and manpower heavy methods they're using right now.  Existing manufacturers decades of experience is a huge advantage there.

 

Re the body engineering; Mubro told Musk he needed to fire their production engineer. He's now gone. 

 

Munro also said the Model 3 electronics were MilSpec level, something you'd expect to see in an F-35.

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FloatingFatMan
Just now, DocM said:

 

(bigtime) Detroit tech & auto analyst Sandy Munro told Musk this, and that he needed to fire their production engineer. He's now gone. 

Good to hear. I really REALLY want Tesla's to get more and more affordable... I want one! :p

 

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DocM
16 minutes ago, FloatingFatMan said:

Good to hear. I really REALLY want Tesla's to get more and more affordable... I want one! :p

 

 

I want the Tesla Pickup 😀

 

Also; this car was an early 2017 build, as were other vehicles used by reviewers. MUCH has changed since then. 

 

And, they may not lighten it as much as Munro wants because some of that beef is for crash protection - and Model 3 has top scores from NHTSA  for that.

16 minutes ago, FloatingFatMan said:

 

 

 

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Draggendrop

Just saw this...

 

Quote

50 MWh of Powerpack storage linked with the Gannawarra Solar Farm now supporting the grid in Victoria, Australia

https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/1063194772859277312

 

30 second clip

 

This is capacity....😎

 

 

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Draggendrop

Tesla Energy moves forward amid Gigafactory 2’s Solar Roof production ramp

 

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Over the course of this year, Tesla’s executives such as CEO Elon Musk and CTO JB Straubel have remarked that the company’s energy business is growing at a rapid rate. Recent reports from Buffalo, NY indicate that this growth will soon be evident in the operations of Tesla’s Gigafactory 2, particularly since the production ramp of the company’s flagship solar product — the Solar Roof tiles — is now going through its initial phases.

 

Tesla recently invited local news outlets on a guided tour of Gigafactory 2. The tour was the first time reporters were given access to the 1.2-million sq ft facility, and while the media were not allowed to film anything inside the factory itself, Tesla did provide a number of updates about Gigafactory 2 and the Solar Roof tiles. First off, Tesla noted that there are currently around 800 employees (comprised of Tesla and Panasonic workers) working on the site. This number is ahead of the facility’s targets, which require 500 workers to be employed on the site by April 2019. Gigafactory 2 is also running 24/7, with workers alternating 12-hour shifts.

 

The guided tour was led by director of operations Ryan Nungesser, who is in charge of Gigafactory 2. Nungesser, a former US marine platoon commander, was employed by the electric car and energy company after his tenure at Boston Scientific, where he worked several roles including Director of Production and Director of Materials Management. While Elon Musk himself has reportedly not visited the facility in person, the former marine and the CEO regularly keep in touch through weekly webcast meetings. Addressing the local media personnel on the tour, Nungesser remarked that the facility maintains a collaborative atmosphere, thanks to Tesla’s flat hierarchy.

 

gigafactory-2-6.jpg

Tesla’s Gigafactory 2. [Credit: Tesla]

 

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Tesla reportedly had to work through notable bottlenecks in the development, testing, and production of the Solar Roof tiles, which are designed to be incredibly durable and last the lifetime of a house. Dan Miner, a reporter for Buffalo Business First, nevertheless noted that Tesla is confident that it currently has a “repeatable, efficient process” that would allow the company to begin the production of the Solar Roof tiles in greater volumes. Tesla declined to give details on the current output of the facility, though the company has stated that there is a long waiting list of Solar Roof customers that would likely keep the factory busy for years.

 

As the facility prepares to ramp the production of the Solar Roof tiles, Tesla managers in the facility are expecting the addition of new manufacturing lines. Another hiring ramp is also expected in the near future. Corey Leone, a facilities maintenance technician at Gigafactory 2 who previously worked at a coal-burning plant in Dunkirk, noted to Rochester First News that his experience over the past three years has been quite positive.

 

“To be able to come here and do green energy, to go from coal to this, it’s been an amazing journey. I’ve been here almost three years. It’s been a fantastic ride,” he said.

 

gigafactory-2-3.jpg

Tesla’s workers at Gigafactory 2. [Credit: Tesla]

 

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Tesla’s Solar Roof tiles are a pivotal part of the company’s plan to promote “sustainable energy independence.” While the cost of the Solar Roof tiles is far higher than conventional solar panels for now, Tesla noted in its Q2 2017 Update Letter that the shingles, which look like regular roofing materials but are capable of capturing power from the sun, would be far more affordable in the future.

 

“Adopting solar has historically required a degree of aesthetic compromise, but Solar Roof provides clean energy from a better-looking roof. Furthermore, Solar Roof is more affordable than conventional roofs because in most cases, it ultimately pays for itself by reducing or eliminating a home’s electricity bill,” Tesla noted.

 

As mentioned by Elon Musk during the third quarter earnings call, the production of the Solar Roof tiles is taking longer to ramp due to the shingles’ long development cycle. Musk did state, though, that the production of the Solar Roof tiles should hit its stride sometime next year.

 

“We’ll also start going into volume production of the solar tile roof next year. That’s quite a long development cycle for — because anything that’s roof has got to last 30 years. So even if you do accelerate life testing as fast as possible, there’s still a minimum amount of time required to do that. And there’s a lot of engineering that goes into how do you put on the solar tile roof with a — and not be really labor-intensive in doing so. So there’s a lot of engineering not just in the tile but in the way it’s done,” Musk said.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-energy-gigafactory-2-solar-roof-production-ramp/

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Draggendrop

Tesla’s new Lathrop facility takes shape amid Model 3’s international exhibition

 

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As the Model 3 continues to entice electric car enthusiasts and reservation holders across the globe, Tesla appears to be setting the stage for a massive rollout of vehicles from its Fremont factory. Last month, local news from the city of Lathrop revealed that Tesla is constructing an enormous facility in the area. Recent drone footage has revealed that the construction of the 870,000 sq ft building is seeing steady progress.

 

Earlier this month, footage of the yet-to-be-announced facility revealed that the walls and framework of the building seemed to be completed. The first sections of the facility’s roof were also being constructed. In a recent update, drone footage revealed that a significant part of the building has now been covered with roofing material.

 

Considering that the time difference between the two drone flybys was just eight days, Tesla’s progress in the facility’s construction appears to be rather quick.

 

Tesla has not disclosed the purpose of the 870,000 sq ft facility, though speculations are abounding that it could be used as a distribution center. That said, it is evident that the facility’s sides have a line of openings that appear to be large enough to accommodate semi-trailers. Thus, there is a good chance that the building, when complete, would feature numerous loading bays.

 

The addition of the 870,000 sq ft building in Lathrop is set to increase the electric car maker’s footprint in the city. Even before the rumored distribution center started construction, after all, Tesla already owned a 500,000 sq ft building in Lathrop, as noted by local news agency Manteca Bulletin. The company also has long-term leases on several more facilities in the area. Moreover, the city is also the site of one of Tesla’s loading hubs — a location that has caught the interest of some of the company’s skeptics. A Tesla spokesperson explained the nature of its activities in the area.

 

“We use Lathrop as a loading hub for cars being shipped to other locations for delivery to customers. As our deliveries increase, we’re obviously going to have more cars there,” a Tesla spokesperson said.

 

Tesla’s construction of its 870,000 sq ft Lathrop facility comes amidst the Model 3’s continued production ramp and ongoing global exhibition. While the company recorded a record number of production and deliveries for the vehicle in Q3, expectations are high that Tesla’s figures in the fourth quarter would be even better, considering the upgrades to Gigafactory 1 from Panasonic and Grohmann automation as well as an ongoing production push in the Fremont factory.

 

Tesla has started advertising the Model 3 to reservation holders in territories outside North America. Over the past week, Tesla has brought the Model 3 to Europe and Asia, saturating areas such as Germany, France, Portugal, China, and Japan, among others. Elon Musk even mentioned on Twitter that deliveries of the Model 3 in China, a key market for electric cars, could start as early as March or April 2019.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-new-lathrop-facility-model-3-international-exhibition/

 

Tesla Lathrop Distribution Center Update (Nov. 18, 2018) Part 2: Roof Still Being Installed

video is 6:48 min.   drone shot

 

 

 

 

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Draggendrop

Two articles to help inform prospective customers...

 

All-Electric Vehicles For Sale In USA (2017 & 2018 Model Years)

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/07/electric-vehicles-for-sale-usa/

 

COMPARE EVS

https://insideevs.com/compare-plug-ins/

 

These comparisons show how advanced the Tesla's are when comparisons are made in all categories.

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DocM

Verge video about Tesla's Nevada Gigafactory. When they talk about 3.5 million battery cells being produced per day, bear in mind this is half the world's production of battery cells coming out of one partially completed factory.

 

1,277,500,000 battery cells/year.

 

 

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Draggendrop

 

Never any doubt from me...

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DocM

Tesla is looking at taking over some of the closing GM plants. Musk will mention this Sunday on 60 Minutes.

 

Production at Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory 3 looks to begin in H2 of 2019. 864,885 m2 of land cleared, getting ready for an accelerated build. Full court press.

 

Model Y crossover, Pickup and Roadter 2  will likely be built at a Gigafactory 1 expansion.

 

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Draggendrop

a snippet...

 

 

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Draggendrop

This just popped up...good read...

 

Elon Musk wants the world to embrace electric cars, even if Tesla goes bankrupt

 

Quote

New York (CNN Business)Elon Musk wants electric vehicles to be successful — even if Tesla goes under trying.

In an interview for CBS' "60 Minutes," the Tesla CEO and Silicon Valley billionaire was asked about competition from General Motors (GM), which announced last month it's laying off thousands of workers as the century-old company shifts focus to self-driving and electric vehicles.

Musk appeared unconcerned.

"If somebody comes and makes a better electric car than Tesla, and it's so much better than ours that we can't sell our cars and we go bankrupt, I still think that's a good thing for the world," Musk told Leslie Stahl during the interview. Clips were shared online ahead of its full broadcast on Sunday.

"The whole point of Tesla is to accelerate the advent of electric vehicles and sustainable transport," he said. "We're trying to help the environment, we think it's the most serious problem that humanity faces."

more at the link...

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/08/tech/elon-musk-gm-electric-cars/index.html

 

 

Tesla CEO Elon Musk welcomes GM competition

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-welcomes-gm-competition-60-minutes-interview/

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Draggendrop

 

 

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Unobscured Vision

... :yes: ...

 

Who could hate this guy? Well, except for the short-sellers and shills who think he's a lunatic.

 

He's my kind of lunatic. :punk:

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