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Back To The Future - What does the Fox see?

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+DevTech    1,495

In a recent thread where a budget gaming system spec was being analyzed, there was a desire to see into the Future and hope that the investment of money would result in a computer that could play any game at the "highest setting" in a few years.

 

Computer tech advances in "Doggie Years" so I thought optimizing for the least cost system that could handle the best games at highest settings in a time period measured in years was a challenge fit for fervent impassioned discussion at Neowin. Instead people locked in on the low budget and danced around small variations in current products like the proverbial Angels Dancing On The Head of a Pin...

 

For reference, here is the thread, not really important to this thread really:

 

https://www.neowin.net/forum/topic/1380636-need-help-building-new-pc/

 

And Angels:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_many_angels_can_dance_on_the_head_of_a_pin%3F

 

 

So, who wants to discuss the future of computers and gaming computers? Low budget, high budget, fantasy budget, Alien budget, whatever... 

 

What is the least cost computer that will play any game in 5 years at highest settings? What will we buy in 10 years? 20 years?

 

Any practical value of this thread to planning and perspective is accidental, perhaps appreciated. Please post any thoughts, ideas, opinions, sane or crazy. A "Wisdom of the Crowd" needs a crowd...

 

 

 

 

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+DevTech    1,495

The secret of the fox
Future mystery
Somewhere deep in the web
I know you're hiding
What is your silicon?
Will we ever know?
Will AI solve the mystery?
What do you see?

 

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+DevTech    1,495

F.O.X. =====> Future Oracle of eXperience

 

 

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Zagadka    3,993

Making a serious contribution to the topic...

 

.... the current Next Big Thing in gaming is distributed platforms, or in other words, streaming. The processing happens remotely (either on a server or a remote PC) and video streamed to a convenient device. This is already doable at 1080p. The main barrier is control latency, which doesn't matter for some games but does for others. With developing networking and 5G coming, the bandwidth may exist in 5-10 years to stream any game to any device at any time.

 

Sony, MS, Nintendo, Google, Amazon, and others are already in stages of developing or deploying solutions. I think it is likely to happen in or after the next generation of console releases, for most games. Some may require a beefier local system, but not for long. Since we won't have much need to go beyond 4k resolution at this time, it is likely that streaming games will be a common practice. As a PC gamer and enthusiast, this is a little depressing, but that's how technology goes.

 

So... it may be a moot question. I wouldn't rush out to buy a next gen video card at the moment.

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+DevTech    1,495
15 minutes ago, Zagadka said:

Making a serious contribution to the topic...

 

.... the current Next Big Thing in gaming is distributed platforms, or in other words, streaming. The processing happens remotely (either on a server or a remote PC) and video streamed to a convenient device. This is already doable at 1080p. The main barrier is control latency, which doesn't matter for some games but does for others. With developing networking and 5G coming, the bandwidth may exist in 5-10 years to stream any game to any device at any time.

 

Sony, MS, Nintendo, Google, Amazon, and others are already in stages of developing or deploying solutions. I think it is likely to happen in or after the next generation of console releases, for most games. Some may require a beefier local system, but not for long. Since we won't have much need to go beyond 4k resolution at this time, it is likely that streaming games will be a common practice. As a PC gamer and enthusiast, this is a little depressing, but that's how technology goes.

 

So... it may be a moot question. I wouldn't rush out to buy a next gen video card at the moment.

Well, one issue is ubiquitous availability of reliable never interrupted low latency high bandwidth internet and that is still a First World privilege right now and even in the U.S. the coverage is far from universal, particularly in rural areas.

 

So we would need to consider how bandwidth is going to progress over the next few years and it always seems to spread out slower than people predict and far patchier....

 

I will make a separate thought about the GPU side of that...

 

 

 

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Mindovermaster    1,725

Thought this topic was "what does the fox say?", then I realized what it was. :ermm:

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+DevTech    1,495
1 minute ago, Mindovermaster said:

Thought this topic was "what does the fox say?", then I realized what it was. :ermm:

I could rename it if you think it is misleading.

 

I thought a "Light" approach to speculation about the future might be appropriate :)

 

 

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Mindovermaster    1,725
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, DevTech said:

I could rename it if you think it is misleading.

 

I thought a "Light" approach to speculation about the future might be appropriate :)

 

 

My "mind" gets these weird accurances, where someone says something, and I think is something else...

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Zagadka    3,993

That is true. I never said that I was a FAN of streaming games. I only recently really began to see it as being something that is going to happen. I'm not a big fan of mobile devices in the first place, so admitting that the future is in that direction is hard. But then I thought back to how I have several boxes of DVDs and BluRays and shelves of books that I almost haven't touched in a decade because I can stream almost anything anywhere for less cost than buying one movie a month faster than I can open a DVD case and take out the disc.

 

It depends on the market. In 5 years, depending on 5G coverage, the bandwidth may exist in most developed countries, and it may be reliable enough. Most modern games require an always on connection anyway (even the ones that don't need it). MS got into a lot of trouble for *requiring* an always on connection last generation, but they look like they're going to try it again in the next generation. The rural audience may again be screwed, they just don't have the profit going for them.

 

The question then is how the market demand in places like China and India will be like, since those will probably be the next largest markets. Especially China. But the current developers of games are almost exclusively in North America, Europe, and Japan (well, also Korea). Companies have already figured out that they can make far more money with far less investment selling cheap mobile games and games as a service to China, or even Europe at the moment. EA makes more money from FIFA every year than the PC market games that cost more and take longer to develop.

 

I would expect to see more devices a bit like the Switch in the future. Lower powered, mobile, interconnected, always on streaming devices with live services. I'm sure PC gaming will continue to exist, but the market is going to change. I'm certainly questioning the wisdom of dropping $500+ on a video card and more for 4k monitors.

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+DevTech    1,495
1 minute ago, Mindovermaster said:

My "mind" gets these weird accurances, where someone says something, and I think is something else...

You didn't really get it wrong. I WAS doing a light pun on "What does the Fox say?" by changing just 2 letters to "What does the FOX see?"

 

And then: F.O.X. =====> Future Oracle of eXperience

 

And also I made slight re-wording of one of the verses from the song lyrics:

 

The secret of the fox
Future mystery
Somewhere deep in the web
I know you're hiding
What is your silicon?
Will we ever know?
Will AI solve the mystery?
What do you see?

 

So, you were just subjected to Hypnotic Auto-Suggestion over the internet (Trumps next technology) --- or something like that...

 

SO, after all that make some speculations about the future of computing or gaming or sex with robots!

 

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Human.Online    8,067
Posted (edited)

Hattee hattee hattee ho.

 

whatever...

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+DevTech    1,495
4 minutes ago, Zagadka said:

That is true. I never said that I was a FAN of streaming games. I only recently really began to see it as being something that is going to happen. I'm not a big fan of mobile devices in the first place, so admitting that the future is in that direction is hard. But then I thought back to how I have several boxes of DVDs and BluRays and shelves of books that I almost haven't touched in a decade because I can stream almost anything anywhere for less cost than buying one movie a month faster than I can open a DVD case and take out the disc.

 

It depends on the market. In 5 years, depending on 5G coverage, the bandwidth may exist in most developed countries, and it may be reliable enough. Most modern games require an always on connection anyway (even the ones that don't need it). MS got into a lot of trouble for *requiring* an always on connection last generation, but they look like they're going to try it again in the next generation. The rural audience may again be screwed, they just don't have the profit going for them.

 

The question then is how the market demand in places like China and India will be like, since those will probably be the next largest markets. Especially China. But the current developers of games are almost exclusively in North America, Europe, and Japan (well, also Korea). Companies have already figured out that they can make far more money with far less investment selling cheap mobile games and games as a service to China, or even Europe at the moment. EA makes more money from FIFA every year than the PC market games that cost more and take longer to develop.

 

I would expect to see more devices a bit like the Switch in the future. Lower powered, mobile, interconnected, always on streaming devices with live services. I'm sure PC gaming will continue to exist, but the market is going to change. I'm certainly questioning the wisdom of dropping $500+ on a video card and more for 4k monitors.

Thanks for your well considered and articulated thinking which is what I was hoping for in this thread so that different ideas could swirl around and bounce off each other in a creative mix...

 

Since Hollywood and TV still have control over the airwaves, the general public is Still Unaware that the economic size of the gaming industry eclipse movies many years ago, yet the world watch's the Academy Awards and skips the Gaming Awards about a much larger industry!

 

I say that to point out that the gaming market/interactive entertainment is already so huge that at any given time we will have a hard time getting the "Big picture" and it only gets bigger.

 

Right now mobile is big, but the market can support many types of content at the same time and I think local GPU based computation will part of that with the bonus to content providers of FREE electricity when things are computed on a user's device. I will make up a post on how I think that might work. It will imply large changes to GPU architectures which have already started with the RTX series... (and the A.I. chip in the Kirin mobile CPU etc)

 

 

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+DevTech    1,495
11 minutes ago, Human.Online said:

Hattee hattee hattee ho.

 

whatever...

If we can keep the humor to content ratio reasonable and it stays entertaining, it's worth a try.

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+DevTech    1,495
19 minutes ago, Zagadka said:

That is true. I never said that I was a FAN of streaming games. I only recently really began to see it as being something that is going to happen. I'm not a big fan of mobile devices in the first place, so admitting that the future is in that direction is hard. But then I thought back to how I have several boxes of DVDs and BluRays and shelves of books that I almost haven't touched in a decade because I can stream almost anything anywhere for less cost than buying one movie a month faster than I can open a DVD case and take out the disc.

 

It depends on the market. In 5 years, depending on 5G coverage, the bandwidth may exist in most developed countries, and it may be reliable enough. Most modern games require an always on connection anyway (even the ones that don't need it). MS got into a lot of trouble for *requiring* an always on connection last generation, but they look like they're going to try it again in the next generation. The rural audience may again be screwed, they just don't have the profit going for them.

 

The question then is how the market demand in places like China and India will be like, since those will probably be the next largest markets. Especially China. But the current developers of games are almost exclusively in North America, Europe, and Japan (well, also Korea). Companies have already figured out that they can make far more money with far less investment selling cheap mobile games and games as a service to China, or even Europe at the moment. EA makes more money from FIFA every year than the PC market games that cost more and take longer to develop.

 

I would expect to see more devices a bit like the Switch in the future. Lower powered, mobile, interconnected, always on streaming devices with live services. I'm sure PC gaming will continue to exist, but the market is going to change. I'm certainly questioning the wisdom of dropping $500+ on a video card and more for 4k monitors.

LET ME KNOW if multiple replies to your posts will be disorientating or not. I can alternatively edit posts to keep one reply per post but then you may not catch that.

 

Your posts are "thoughtfully rich" right now and trigger thoughts long after first reading.

 

If streaming games serve ONLY to reduce PC equipment cost and basically just emasculate the PC Gaming market then I would detest them with a passion.

 

Bill Gates and his "PC on every Desktop" followed by "Information at Your Fingertips" was revolutionary and promoting of individual freedom and empowerment. NOTHING should be allowed to move us backwards from that.

 

But if game streaming becomes a "gaming lite" on-ramp to greater gaming engagement, then it can be a force for good. If the services flesh out to becoming vehicles for monthly (but time limited) access to a smörgåsbord of many different games and genres like Sony's Playstation Now then it just makes the market larger.

 

https://www.playstation.com/en-us/explore/playstation-now/

 

Speaking of China and the potential dark side of Streaming, if everything is on a server then that permits EXTRA levels of spying and Control.

 

 

 

 

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+DevTech    1,495

Now - 2019

Not much Future going on right now. Or is there? Where are the Flying cars?

 

Any prediction of future gaming tech should be mindful of the Flying Car issue...

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flying_car

 

"The flying car was and remains a common feature of conceptions of the future, including imagined near futures such as those of the 21st century. Complaints of the non-existence of flying cars have become nearly idiomatic as expressions of disappointment in the failure of the present to measure up to the glory of past predictions...As a result, flying cars have been referred to jokingly with the question "Where's my flying car?", emblematic of the supposed failure of modern technology to match futuristic visions"

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_studies

 

------------------------

 

Consoles: Microsoft Xbox One X, Sony Playstation 4 Pro, Nintendo Switch

 

Windows Version: 10

 

CPU:

 

GPU:

 

RAM:

 

STORAGE:

 

CLOUD:

 

I/O: 4K LCD, Projectors, VR, HoloLens, Audio, Speech, Mouse, Keyboard, Touch, Speech Recognition, Xbox controller, Playstation controller, Nintendo Joycon, Kinect Gesture/Body

 

 

Now+ - 2020

Consoles: Microsoft Xbox NEXT, Sony Playstation 5

 

 

6 Years - Near Future - 2025

 

The near term future, typically factored in a bit when purchasing new equipment

 

Consoles: Microsoft Xbox NEXT 2X Plus For Gamers Digital Edition, Sony Playstation 6, Nintendo Switch XL

 

Windows Version: 10

 

CPU:

 

GPU:

 

RAM:

 

STORAGE:

 

CLOUD:

 

I/O:

 

 

10 Years - Mid Future - 2030

 

A decade produces the big changes that Neowin tech people notice but may or may not impact "general society"

 

Consoles: Microsoft Azure Xbox StreamPlay, Sony Playstation 7, Nintendo Switch Dick Tracy DS

 

Windows Version: 10

 

CPU:

 

GPU:

 

RAM:

 

STORAGE:

 

CLOUD:

 

I/O:

 

 

20 Years - Our Children's Future - 2040

 

2 decades produces the kinds of "Sea Change" in computers that affects society and gets noticed by the mainstream population and produces a new generation of Digital Native children that just grew up with that change and assume that is the way the world has always worked...

 

Consoles:

 

Windows Version: 10

 

CPU:

 

GPU:

 

RAM:

 

STORAGE:

 

CLOUD:

 

I/O:

 

 

Farther Out - 2050 and Beyond

 

Just for fun, do we hit The Singularity or not?

 

"Four polls, conducted in 2012 and 2013, suggested that the median estimate was a 50% chance that artificial general intelligence (AGI) would be developed by 2040–2050. In the 2010s, public figures such as Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk expressed concern that full artificial intelligence could result in human extinction. The consequences of the singularity and its potential benefit or harm to the human race have been intensely debated"

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

 

 

I suspect all advanced civilizations might hit some sort of Singularity and that is why we don't detect any signals out there... (Where is Everybody? - The Fermi Paradox)

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox

 

Consoles: Microsoft SkyNET, Sony SkyNET, Nintendo SkyNET

(your A.I. Overlords give you no choice and you will like it)

 

Windows Version: SkyNET

 

CPU:

 

GPU:

 

RAM:

 

STORAGE:

 

CLOUD:

 

I/O:

 

 

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astropheed    2,167
33 minutes ago, DevTech said:

Where is Everybody? - The Fermi Paradox

This escalated quickly.

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Zagadka    3,993
1 hour ago, DevTech said:

LET ME KNOW if multiple replies to your posts will be disorientating or not. I can alternatively edit posts to keep one reply per post but then you may not catch that.

Nah, I don't really like point to point replies. I prefer organic posts.

 

Like I said, I don't know how much I can argue the point in favor of streaming. I'm not a fan of it, and I prefer to stick with my good ol' gaming PC.

 

But I'm afraid that might be a smaller market.

 

I also agree that the games industry can be huge. Grand Theft Auto 5 is still one of the most profitable single pieces of entertainment ever, and it is a pity that the broader culture doesn't get as involved. A major change came with Fortnite, which gained a lot of pop culture following, partly because it is available on mobile platforms (I'm still amazed that some people can play a shooter with finger gestures, but they can). One of the barriers to public involvement is initial investment. Movies are easy to follow because you don't need much; you can go to the theater or pop in a DVD (or stream) without much investment. One of the driving forces of that was, of course, VHS, which changed the landscape of film distribution completely, and the introduction of cable television at the same time created entirely new cultures around them. I feel like gaming is at a similar point of change - and in place of VHS and cable is streaming games on non-specialized devices.

 

I'd imagine seeing a future where you have a Switch-like console for streaming and launching games. "Media center" platforms have been promised for a long time now, but only now is streaming an affordable option for content consumption.

 

Of course, this applies mainly to people in developed areas. Like I said above, the emerging markets in China, India, etc have the potential not only to replace, but completely eclipse the current market. Movies are already starting to cater to a Chinese audience in their productions. Gaming is next. Maybe not immediately, but China's income levels have been reaching levels where they can afford the market. If Japan can be an industry behemoth, China is an entire other galaxy.

 

Tencent may have more to say about this than Microsoft.

 

I would lay most of these developments a bit beyond your "10 Year" tier. I think the next console generation will be based on digital 4k games like current with included streaming options, as well as cheaper streaming devices with smaller libraries (maybe from Google, Amazon, and Apple). The generation after that will have more streaming and integrate with mobile platforms. After that, I don't know if PCs or dedicated consoles will even exist.

 

 

EDIT

 

Frankly, the main problem I have with The Future is input commands. I don't expect voice control to work or VR displays to work without some way of more direct input, as in keyboard and mouse. Needing to sit at a desk and type and click will probably always exist. What i do expect are to see cables disappear; a PC would be visible from a monitor, then make a gesture and it pops over to a TV in another room. Still can't imagine using a keyboard on a sofa, and i have NO confidence in voice or extensive motion controls for any moderately intricate task. We damn well aren't going to be standing around waving at transparent monitors like in Minority Report, at least not any time soon.

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+DevTech    1,495
1 hour ago, astropheed said:

This escalated quickly.

Well more like something for everybody... :)

 

And if part of the future of gaming is more immersion via VR etc followed by Direct Fiber To The Brain etc then maybe gaming environments get so seductive that all sentient species in the Galaxy evolve to permanent attachment to A.I. driven gaming environments which of course creates a civilization that does not look outward but instead "Boldly Goes Ever Inward"

 

Edit:

 

Enrico Fermi posed the famous question in 1950, a time when imagining the future of gaming technology was just not well... imaginable... In 2019 we can now consider an entire civilization attached to electronics that provide Infinite Realities, not just the single boring reality of "The Matrix"

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spikey_richie    211

"Microsoft Xbox NEXT 2X Plus For Gamers Digital Edition" that's a high-probability prediction right there.

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goretsky    1,004

Hello,

 

Bandwidth was mentioned earlier, but I think an aspect of that need to be thought about is data caps/usage based-billing.  I saw an article recently that talked about some game's day one patch being 90GB, or the equivalent of just over nineteen DVDs.  As larger and larger games become the norm, it is only going to be natural for Internet service providers to want to "innovate in this space," i.e., find ways to charge gamers additional fees to generate the kind of recurring revenue that gets stock prices up and CEOs multi-million dollar bonuses.  If I recall correctly, wireless carriers were the first to introduce data caps before they became commonplace for wireline operators, and the practice has now become common with those operators as well.

 

5G could offer carriers some revenue creation, generation and extraction opportunities over more granular aspects of your network connection, such as latency.  Perhaps in addition to paying for your base speed network connection, an additional fee on top of that for a higher speed connection, you'll be able to pay then additional fees in order for them to remove network latency delays intentionally injected to prevent usage of delay-sensitive services, such as gaming, streaming video, VoIP and other latency-sensitive applications.   There might also be application prioritization/network access fees: For example, for faster access to Epic/Microsoft/SONY/Steam (or whatever gaming service CDNs are out there in the future) you need to add-on the "pro gaming" service, otherwise your packets per second will be limited to some level which is "acceptable for casual gaming" but implicitly implies you won't ever have an actual good gaming experience unless you purchase the "gaming server connection prioritization" add-on.

 

I realize you were probably more thinking about discussing gaming hardware than network connectivity, but since so many games have some sort of network component these days, I thought this was an interesting aside to bring up.

 

Regards,

 

Aryeh Goretsky

 

 

 

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+DevTech    1,495
29 minutes ago, goretsky said:

Hello,

 

Bandwidth was mentioned earlier, but I think an aspect of that need to be thought about is data caps/usage based-billing.  I saw an article recently that talked about some game's day one patch being 90GB, or the equivalent of just over nineteen DVDs.  As larger and larger games become the norm, it is only going to be natural for Internet service providers to want to "innovate in this space," i.e., find ways to charge gamers additional fees to generate the kind of recurring revenue that gets stock prices up and CEOs multi-million dollar bonuses.  If I recall correctly, wireless carriers were the first to introduce data caps before they became commonplace for wireline operators, and the practice has now become common with those operators as well.

 

5G could offer carriers some revenue creation, generation and extraction opportunities over more granular aspects of your network connection, such as latency.  Perhaps in addition to paying for your base speed network connection, an additional fee on top of that for a higher speed connection, you'll be able to pay then additional fees in order for them to remove network latency delays intentionally injected to prevent usage of delay-sensitive services, such as gaming, streaming video, VoIP and other latency-sensitive applications.   There might also be application prioritization/network access fees: For example, for faster access to Epic/Microsoft/SONY/Steam (or whatever gaming service CDNs are out there in the future) you need to add-on the "pro gaming" service, otherwise your packets per second will be limited to some level which is "acceptable for casual gaming" but implicitly implies you won't ever have an actual good gaming experience unless you purchase the "gaming server connection prioritization" add-on.

 

I realize you were probably more thinking about discussing gaming hardware than network connectivity, but since so many games have some sort of network component these days, I thought this was an interesting aside to bring up.

 

Regards,

 

Aryeh Goretsky

 

 

 

Awesome! Thanks for the ideas.

 

I am hoping people will bring up any points they want concerning the future of computing and gaming which as you have pointed out will include giant issues around network access, bandwidth, cloud storage and eventually how to provide complete network coverage anywhere on Planet Earth (and beyond)

 

By 2040 we might see the start of significant coastal flooding which means global network infrastructure needs a protection plan.

 

Microsoft and Google are also laying down their own fiber across the World's oceans which creates issues of protection from climate and terrorists etc where they exit the water....

 

Data centers need to be moved out of coastal cities...

 

It might be safer to start lifting some infrastructure into low earth orbit? who knows if anyone is ahead of the curve on this stuff or if it will all be react at the last minute to one disaster after another...

 

 

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+DevTech    1,495

When I edit the timeline post from time to time, I will add people's ideas where I think it will fit time-wise and category-wise but if you have thoughts about the timeframe of your ideas/concepts/directions etc, you could mention the year range it applies to...

 

I plan to combine NVIDIA, AMD and Intel Roadmaps to the timeline as well, although they stop well before 2040 I think....

 

 

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