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Hurricane Dorian

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Jim K    13,735

Predicted to hit Central Florida as a Cat 3 on Monday.

 

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Quote

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 66.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin Friday night and continue into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and on Friday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The minimum central pressure based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/290842.shtml?

Quote

Hurricane Dorian packing more punch on way to U.S. mainland

 

Hurricane Dorian was getting stronger as it set its sights on the U.S. mainland early Thursday, churning over open waters. "Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday," the National Hurricane Center said.

 

Dorian became a Category 1 hurricane just before making landfall on the U.S. Virgin Islands Wednesday, causing power outages and minor flooding. Puerto Rico avoided a direct hit, dodging a bullet.

 

The storm was on a path likely take it to Florida's Atlantic coast, though an arrival farther north wasn't out of the question. It could make landfall on the U.S. mainland as a Category 3 storm late Sunday or Monday morning, forecasters said.

//

CBS News

 

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Jose_49    1,045

I'm from the Dominican Republic and we're so relieved that we were able to dodge it. I hope Puerto Rico is fine and that it weakens before it reaches FL. 

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+Human.Online    8,595

Having gone through Irma and been basically terrified, I will say that everyone in Dorian's path are in my thoughts!

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Jim K    13,735

Now forecasted to be a Cat 4 when it hits Florida.

 

 

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+Human.Online    8,595
3 minutes ago, Jim K said:

Now forecasted to be a Cat 4 when it hits Florida.

 

 

Irma was a 4 when it hit mainland Florida

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Jim K    13,735
1 minute ago, Human.Online said:

Irma was a 4 when it hit mainland Florida

Not the east coast though. 

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LOC    1,170

I'm in South Florida, so I'm pretty worried especially smaller Hurricanes are notoriously harder to forecast accurately. Whether it hits here directly where I am or not, its probably going to be bad if it hits Cat 4 strength. My guess is, a rapid intensification happens right before it hits around here in Florida, very reminiscent of Hurricane Charley back in 2004 I think it was. Small storm, wasn't expected to be big, major intensification before landfall in Western Florida and it was near Cat 5 if memory serves when it hit. Plus, I still remember Hurricane Andrew and Hurricane Wilma, those were pretty bad down here. At least Puerto Rico was spared anything major and most of the islands so far in the Caribbean haven't seen anything bad quite yet. The Bahamas are another story coming up though, along with us it seems. :|

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shockz    6,016
Posted (edited)

Was watching CNN coverage of this as it glazed the islands, a few branches down, and then they refused to turn the wipers on to make it look worse than it was from the car they were filming in.

 

While I'm sure this will be bad news for Florida, as now it's expected to be at least a Cat 4, the media is already hyping it up. Already tired of hearing about it and it won't be until the weekend when this thing hits.

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Jim K    13,735

 

 

Forecast moved a bit more south, which is good for me (grandparents live in Daytona Beach)....bad for Palm Beach, Jupiter, Port St. Lucie...

 

Cat 2 hurricane now ... still forecasted to be a Cat 4 when it hits Florida.

 

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Mockingbird    2,825

One good news would if it slam right into Mar-a-Lago

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DocM    16,612
10 hours ago, Mockingbird said:

One good news would if it slam right into Mar-a-Lago

Thereby putting all the resort's employees and visitors at risk so you can make a political point outside of  Local Politics.

 

Nice 🙄

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FloatingFatMan    18,811
17 minutes ago, DocM said:

Thereby putting all the resort's employees and visitors at risk so you can make a political point outside of  Local Politics.

 

Nice 🙄

Yeah, because everyone's going to stick around at work during a hurricane... :rolleyes: 

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adrynalyne    12,385
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, DocM said:

Thereby putting all the resort's employees and visitors at risk so you can make a political point outside of  Local Politics.

 

Nice 🙄

Intelligent people evacuate. 

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Jim K    13,735

Another slight change.  Forecast to move up the coast and not make a direct impact....though winds and storm surges could occur up the eastern coast.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Jim K    13,735

....still shifting a bit east though much of central/east Florida remains at risk for tropical storm or hurricane conditions

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Louisifer    760

It looks so peaceful from above, so disconnected from the destruction that lies beneath. :o 

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LOC    1,170

Well, not doing a sigh of relief quite yet down here, but breathing a hell of a lot easier that's for sure. I was starting to get Andrew thoughts at this point to be honest :|

 

Hopefully the storm just stays off the coast and weakens as it moves north in latitude, though there is the gulf stream to contend with I'm sure. Hopefully it'll be much, much weaker before it makes any landfall and just be a rain producer more than massive storm surges and wind damage.

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Jim K    13,735

Dorian is now a category 5 hurricane ... 

Quote

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 76.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion should occur for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian should be moving over Great Abaco soon, and continue near or over Grand Bahama Island later tonight and Monday. The hurricane should move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday night.

 

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane which just penetrated the eye of Dorian indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). Elbow Cay in the Abaco Islands just reported winds of 35 mph (56 km/h)

 

The minimum central pressure just measured by an Air Force plane was 927 mb (27.37 inches).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/011152.shtml

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+rdlenk    150

cooooooooooool

 

*looks at location*

 

In a fun tidbit, Brevard County hasn't actually experienced hurricane force sustained winds since Hurricane David in 1979. Even Andrew in 1992 which did massive damage to the area still only had gusts into the hurricane force level, not sustained. The most recent hurricane to affect us, Irma in 2017, had sustained winds of only about 70 MPH; short of the hurricane force designation that starts at 75MPH. That could all change soon, because Dorian.

 

Did I say "fun" tidbit?

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Sadelwo    162

As someone living in the easter caribbean who has endured Luis (1995), George(1998) and Irma (2017). I would tell anyone living in the areas to be affected, DON'T TAKE CHANCES. If you're area is prone to flooding, MOVE. If your house is not constructed of concrete and steel, MOVE. And for the love of God, don't poke your head outside "to see what's going on". Its nothing good and you can loose your head. It's happened.

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xendrome    5,553

180MPH

 

...DORIAN BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN MODERN RECORDS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ...CATASTROPHIC CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ABACOS ISLANDS...

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LOC    1,170

Well well, almost as strong as Wilma (though pressure wise it has a way to go still, I think Wilma was down to somewhere near 885 mb or something nuts) winds wise now. Not exactly surprising as it happens more and more. I really hope the Bahamas islands being affected are hunkered down or evacuated at this point because this is as bad as it gets now (not to mention the storm slowing down which makes things even worse). Maybe, some upwelling can hinder the storm as it slows down today, but I doubt it. Still hoping we don't get hit down here in S Florida but at this point  I'd expect about anything to happen.

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Unobscured Vision    2,678

Please be safe, folks. I have RL and 'net friends down there. I expect you all to come through this.

 

Don't need any more death in my life. Lost my father two weeks ago.

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DocM    16,612

Yes, everyone get out of Dodge if at all possible. 

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adrynalyne    12,385
8 minutes ago, DocM said:

Yes, everyone get out of Dodge if at all possible. 

Yet you facepalmed this? 🤣

On 8/31/2019 at 1:05 AM, adrynalyne said:

Intelligent people evacuate. 

 

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