Sunny today, chance of afternoon tremors


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PASADENA, California (AP) -- California residents wondering if tomorrow's forecast will be sunny now can find out if there's also a chance of afternoon tremors.

For the first time, they can check a daily earthquake forecast on the Internet just as easily as they check the weather.

The Web site, maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey, is updated hourly and calculates the probability of strong ground shaking at specific locations over a 24-hour period. The program is not meant to predict when the "Big One" will occur nor serve as a warning signal for residents to evacuate.

Most of the maps will show that the chances of a significant shaking are pretty slim most of the time. USGS seismologist Matthew Gerstenberger said the site would probably be most useful after a strong temblor that has caused significant damage. Since aftershocks are likely in those situations, residents can log online and check for the possibility of more jolting in their area.

The earthquake forecast maps are created by considering a variety of factors, including monitoring the San Andreas Fault and other active faults in California with seismic instruments. Scientists also factor in any recent history of small and large temblors as well as aftershocks, on those same faults.

full story:

http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/05/18...t.ap/index.html

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