Xbox Year 2 Projections!


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It's a strange thing gamers; looking back on Xbox's first year on the market. In many ways XBOX performed better than anyone ever dreamed; yet in retrospect 2002 was a pretty tough year for our beloved Box! With stiff competition on all sides and some botched foreign launches it's quite the miracle that Xbox has gotten to where it is in such a short time. 12 months ago people wondered if Xbox would even make it through its first year, well here we are and many of those same skeptics are now singing the praises of Microsoft's machine! Still, year one is usually the trial year for a new console, it's during year two that things really start to get interesting. So join the Hedgehog now Xbox fans as we take a comprehensive look at Xbox Year 2 and see what's on the horizon for our favorite console, what Microsoft is going to have to do to continue to make Xbox a success, and what the competition must be thinking as they do it.

The Games of 2003!

I think it's safe to say that Xbox's first year on the market was a bit bland when it came to the games. It's nothing to be ashamed of, most consoles go through the year one drought as developers warm up to the machine and the Box was no different. Yet Year two is looking like an absolute moment to moment explosion of gaming goodness. In a quick fashion let me show you Xbox 2003 lineup as it currently stands. Midtown Madness 3, Crimson Skies: HRTR, Toa Feng: TFOL, Star Wars: KTOR, Project Gotham Racing 2, Fable, BC, Sudeki, Tork, Psychonauts, Counterstrike, True Fantasy Live Online, Panzer Dragoon Orta, Outrun 2, Ninja Gaiden, DOA Xtreme Beach Volleyball, Breakdown, DOA: Code Cronos, The Unseen, Steel Battalion 2, Dino Crisis 3, Deus Ex 2: Invisible war, Doom III, Perfect Dark Zero, WWE Raw 2, and Halo 2. Now that's a lineup, be advised these are just the games we know of. Take the Hedgehog's word when I say that Microsoft has a whole lot of surprises for year 2 yet to be revealed!

The Secret Weapons!

The HALO 2 Factor: While Xbox has a gargantuan number of games for 2003 perhaps there's only one that really matters, HALO 2. Every now and then a game comes along with such an unprecedented level of Hype that it is immortalized in the minds of gamers well before it's even released. HALO 2 seems destined to join the ranks of games like

Zelda: Ocarina of Time and Grand Theft Auto 3. Just how much hype is Bungie's masterpiece getting? Allow me to tell you a little story which may answer your question.

I walked into my local Gamestop about a week after the HALO 2 trailer premiered on the web and what a surprise my eyes received upon entering the store. A big TV dominated the center of the store which was playing the HALO 2 trailer over and over again! The store was decked out in mock up HALO 2 posters and game boxes as well. When I

inquired about this to the store owner he told me that preorders for HALO 2 have now exceeded the total number of preorders for every other game on their list combined!!!! Be advised this was before Vice City came out and a full thirteen months from the games proposed launch! If that isn't blockbuster syndrome in its earliest stages I don't know what is!

The XBOX Live Factor:

Graphics and processing power can only be marketed so much before people stop caring, but Xbox Live could become a major selling point for Xbox during year two. If the MS boys play their hands right, Xbox Live could become the ultimate destination for hardcore gamers. Xbox Live is something totally unique to Microsoft's system the competition's online plans don't even come close! Yet Microsoft is going to have to show patience with Xbox Live as growth is most likely going to be slow, the number of Broadband users in the US is still relatively low and as such the number of gamers with access to Xbox Live will be few! Gamers should certainly not worry about Xbox Live getting killed prematurely because of a low user base; like everything else MS does, Xbox Live is ready for the long run.

The Rare Factor -

Not only has Rare's shifting allegiance punched a massive whole in the Gamecube's developer support but it has given Microsoft quite possibly it's most powerful ally yet! For a mere 375 million green backs, MS acquired 5 separate development houses and Rare's entire library of Franchises. Rare has pledged that 5 Xbox games will be shipped within the next two years. So far the only games we know of are Kameo and Perfect Dark Zero yet just these two titles seem to be slowly shifting the course of this race.

A recent IGN report stated that one of the most wanted games for gamers who don't own an Xbox is none other than Perfect Dark Zero, a very good sign that when the game finally ships it's going to bring over a lot of Gamecube enthusiast with it! The number of defectors is also only going to mount as more and more Rare games are released on Xbox!

Japan First, Then the World.

As of printing this article Xbox is now holding the second place trophy in America by about 800,000 units and in Europe by a margin, and sales in both markets are rising. Yet in Japan Xbox continues to get pounded into the dust! After a full 8 months on the market

Microsoft has only managed to move a dismal 280,000 units. While Japan is not the pinnacle of gaming that it once was, they are still a very important market, if Microsoft wants to have the Xbox be a true success than this problem will have to be mitigated.

Year 2 is looking a little better for Japanese gamers who've joined the green side, at least compared to year one! Games like N.U.D.E, True Fantasy Live Online, Dino Crisis 3, and of course Ninja Gaiden should go a long ways to spurring sales. Yet if Microsoft really wants to succeed in the Japanese market it's going to take more than a few isolated game releases. In all likelihood sometime during 2003 Microsoft will purchase or partner with a major Japanese publisher. If Microsoft wants to survive, it's going to take something drastic! Japan is going to become a true test of just how bad Microsoft wants to dominate this market!

So what's the Competition doing in 2003?

Sony's View - To put it short and sweet Sony could jack the price of PS2 back to 300 and turn Gran Turismo into a kart racer and Xbox would still never catch them in overall sales. Sony's won this war and they know it, their lead is just too significant to ever be

overtaken. So with that settled now the question becomes will Sony finish this race strong or with a competitor breathing down on its neck! Sony's system may only be a year older than Nintendo's and Microsoft's machines but that 12 month difference is putting a

tremendous amount of wrinkles on the PS2's face.

Looking at Xbox titles like HALO 2, Fable, and PGR 2 the graphical difference between their PS2 competitors is just staggering. As this graphical difference becomes more and more obvious PS2 owners and new gamers are going to find the Xbox's oh so pretty games harder and harder to resist!

The technology factor is also starting to effect how developers view the PS2. Even today, developers are making Xbox games that simply can't be done on the PS2 even if they try.

Splinter Cell is a prime example of how PS2's graphical power is quickly becoming obsolete! For Sony, 2003 could become a tough year to keep gamers interested as their console starts looking more like yesterdays news. The Japanese Company will have to rely more and more on exclusive franchises to sell their system, and those franchises

might become harder too secure as Xbox continues to gain a bigger audience.

Nintendo's View - 2002 was a major wake up call for Nintendo! It kicked them out of their cozy little bed and sprayed them with seltzer water while screaming "WAKE UP" through a megaphone. After all, who would have thought that the oldest veteran in the Industry would be getting beat by a rookie like Microsoft in two out of the three global markets? Despite some successful launches and plenty of good content like Resident Evil, Animal Crossing, and Super Mario Sunshine Nintendo just isn't selling that well compared to Xbox in the Old and New worlds! Gamecube's weakness may lie in its design rather than its library!

Many have said it before and I will now say it, gamers of our generation expect more from a console than just games and with no DVD playback, no hard drive, and a dismal online plan Nintendo's console just isn't as equipped as Xbox! Also Nintendo has done a relatively poor job of marketing compared to Microsoft, and I'm not talking game commercials. If you look at all the special deals, bundles, and price cuts Microsoft has been willing to endure to make Xbox appealing to the public is it any wonder that the Gamecube is looking like a dead end to many consumers!

For Nintendo, 2003 may very well decide the fait of the Gamecube in the U.S. and Europe if Nintendo can't get sales up it'll be in real trouble in all but it's home market! The Big N certainly isn't without its own aces though, Capcom seems to have become quite fond of Nintendo despite there growing financial woes, pledging 5 all new games to the Cube! Of course Nintendo has their own secret weapons, a special Zelda super pack. With Ocarian of Time and the 64DD game included will certainly be a hit. And with new games in the F Zero, Star Fox, and Mario Kart franchises on the way the franchise power of Nintendo will certainly be brought to bear! Still, one has to wonder, if Mario Sunshine couldn't spur sales of the Gamecube, what can!? Nintendo may eventually have to bite the bill and drop the cube to the final price point of $ 99.00 if things continue the way they are!

Source: http://xbox365.com

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