UPDATE: Canadian Dollar = American Dollar


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Let's talk about some economics for a change ;)

TORONTO (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar topped 98 U.S. cents for the first time in over 30 years on Tuesday as commodity prices offered further support ahead of an expected U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Domestic bond prices fell as some investors scaled back earlier expectations for the Fed to cut its key rate by 50 basis points when it sets policy later on Tuesday.

At 9:30 a.m., the Canadian unit was at C$1.0228 to the U.S. dollar, or 97.77 U.S. cents, up from C$1.0280 to the U.S. dollar, or 97.28 U.S. cents, at Monday's close.

Earlier, the Canadian dollar touched C$1.0202 to the U.S. dollar, or 98.02 U.S. cents, the currency's highest level since February 1977.

The latest charge in the Canadian unit was fueled by a weak U.S. jobs report earlier which knocked the greenback lower against a basket of major currencies.

But a rise in commodity prices, including an all-time high for oil prices, and gold shooting above $700 an ounce as well as signs of a strong domestic economy, have sent the Canadian dollar closer to parity.

"The Canadian dollar is back on the radar screen and there is a momentum to these sorts of moves," said Eric Lascelles, strategist at TD Securities. "And when people get excited about a currency, it can keep pushing much higher than you would rationally expect it to and I think that's precisely what's happening in Canada right now."

The Canadian unit was also bolstered by expectations for the Fed to cut its key fed funds rate when it sets policy on Tuesday.

If the Fed cuts rates from 5.25 percent, it would narrow the Canada-U.S. rate gap in favor of the Canadian dollar, as the Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave its overnight rate at 4.50 percent when it next sets policy on October 16.

The Canadian dollar's recent performance -- it is up about 2.5 percent in the past two weeks -- has put it within grasp of parity with the greenback, a level it has not seen since November 1976.

Whether the Canadian dollar extends its recent push will depend not only on the direction of commodity prices, but also the tone of the Fed's statement on Tuesday.

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Canadian dollar heading for US$1.05, Mersch says

"Fundamentally this country is head and shoulders above the United States on an economic basis."

Jonathan Chevreau, Financial Post

Published: Wednesday, September 19, 2007

After Frank Mersch left Altamira and became a co-owner of hedge fund firm Front Street Capital, his public appearances and statements to the media became relatively rare. On Tuesday night, Mersch gave an hour-long off-the-cuff talk at Toronto's Granite Club at a dinner sponsored by DOT Integrated Financial. Before the talk, he gave the following interview to the FP's Jonathan Chevreau about the loonie's rise to parity. This is an edited excerpt:

JC: Do we hit parity this week?

FM: We're looking at parity within the next couple of weeks and I think we go to US$1.05

JC: Then what?

FM: Then we'll reevaluate it. It depends on where oil prices are. Really the Canadian economy is still strong. We have a lot of engines here. If oil hits US$90 or US$100, the Canadian dollar hits US$1.06, US$1.07 or US$1.10.

JC: Is it so much that Canada dollar is strong or the U.S. dollar is weak?

FM: The U.S. is weak against the Euro and against other currencies; as Canadians we don't recognize the fact that fiscally we're responsible. We're running budget surpluses. If you look at the deficit position in this country it's ten times better than the United States. Fundamentally this country is head and shoulders above the United States on an economic basis.

JC: But we have only three large economic sectors?

FM: Yes, the U.S. is more diversified but the world is broadly diversified. We do have other sectors: it's just that we're focused on this commodity cycle. We still have our auto industry; Toyota is still expanding in Canada; we still have technology leaders: Research in Motion and other areas.

More and Source: Canada.com

This bodes well for coming Christmas Holidays - cheaper presents in the US ... lets hope the Loonie hits and stays over $1.00/us soon.

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Oh I'm so looking Forward to this.. Means Cheaper the Computer parts will be.

but now I have a real Choice to make AMD or Intel?? I have always been an AMD fan.

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i'm all for it . .cheaper stuff's in the US . . i'll be getting a new car soon . . even after tax's, import fees, duty . . I'll still be saving about 15-20% compared to the same car here in canada ( Audi A5)

good times are coming for canadians looking to buy things cheap from the us . . heck even vacations are good value now ( vegas, hawaii, etc)

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Oh I'm so looking Forward to this.. Means Cheaper the Computer parts will be.

but now I have a real Choice to make AMD or Intel?? I have always been an AMD fan.

I love the dollar being stronger against the greenback, certainly been great when I'm ordering stuff from the US :D

And Intel's a hand down winner!

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yet we still have higher prices on everything :(

Yeah, it's VERY true with cars.... You know Toyota, the place where you don't have to "deal" your price, because they sell you the car at the price you can find on the website... Well, go visit Toyota.com (US Site) and build yourself a nice car/truck. Go to Toyota.ca and build the SAME car/truck and look at the price... In Canada, it's almost $10K more..... Can you say CRAZY?

It's the same for every other dealers... GM, Dodge, Ford, Mazda, .... It cost more to have the same car in Canada.

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yet we still have higher prices on everything :(

Living on the border is awesome for that. It costs $103.something to get $100 USD right now (soon to change) - go over to the US side and everything is a lot cheaper, especially gas. :p

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It's not all good you know... Canadian Export will cost more and the US could stop buying from Canada. So it could mean loss of jobs here... That's bad.

That is kind of what I am worrying about.

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How many times do people need reminded that the president does not control the economy? Blame congress. Blame a lackluster year for industry in the US.

I wonder if the US will ever consolidate like the Euro did. Would make things much easier for everyone over here in NA.

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That is kind of what I am worrying about.

unfortunately the damage is mostly already done, my dads best friend works for DOW Chemical and his job started shutting down about 1 year ago when the loonie started getting to close to the american dollar.

my uncle in Nova Scotia worked for a plant, they just shut down months ago.. Because it isn't worth shipping it past the border. He now lives in fort mac.

however, for me this is good, I want to tour the US by car sometime soon and this is very encouraging for me.

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"Canadians we don't recognize the fact that fiscally we're responsible. "

When did that happen and what's that about, eh?

the fact that the Ontario Government has over $1 Billion CAD surplus.
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