[official] Blu-ray Rumors and Speculations

[Boz]

If they did then they were doing it for a year

Absolutely not true. You are posting like the numbers were 85:15 or less during 2007 when it's more like 60:40 and that's with BOGOs happening from January 2007. Unlike Blu-Ray people HD DVD owners bought movies regardless of the lack of BOGOs. This shows great attachement to the format and obviously signals to the studio that indeed HD DVD would be much more viable format for them. Hitting several time almost 1:1 ratio during the year on weekly numbers showed that Blu-Ray sales without BOGOs weren't really that great especially considering the hardware advantage through PS3s.

Let me ask you, hypothetically, let's say that HD DVD does indeed publishes a few big titles on twin disc or combo disc for about $20-$25 (for what regular DVD releases go for) with no DVD on sale. After a week the ratio for HD DVDs over Blu-Ray sold would be 99:1. I'm interested to see what your answer would be?

[Coldgunner]

Let me ask you, hypothetically, let's say that HD DVD does indeed publishes a few big titles on twin disc or combo disc for about $20-$25 (for what regular DVD releases go for) with no DVD copy. After a week the ratio for HD DVDs over Blu-Ray sold would be 99:1. I'm interested to see what your answer would be?

because the dvd forum does not want to cut into their dvd sales by pushing a more expensive disc on the consumer. dvd sales are multiplie times that of both hd formats together, more money to the studio that way. Another aspect is combos only exist in the US, europe and other parts of the world don't get combos.

[+StevoFC]

because the dvd forum does not want to cut into their dvd sales by pushing a more expensive disc on the consumer. dvd sales are multplie times that of both hd formats together.

Did you read what he said? Not release a DVD only version and release the HD DVD combo one for the regular dvd price...

[Coldgunner]

Did you read what he said? Not release a DVD only version and release the HD DVD combo one for the regular dvd price...

in fact I did. DVD's being produced as they are, is a tried and tested formula.

[Boz]

because the dvd forum does not want to cut into their dvd sales by pushing a more expensive disc on the consumer. dvd sales are multplie times that of both hd formats together.

This is not true, they've been trying to transition DVD to HD DVD for a while. The overall GOAL of HDM IS to replace DVD. Second, as I said, at $20-$25, HD DVD/DVD hybrid disc that would play on any DVD or HD DVD players would not be more expensive. This is for how much brand new DVD releases are going for..

You have not answered my question. What would you say if, HD DVD Group did that and you saw millions of discs sold in the first week that would completely decimate Blu-Ray sales for all discs combined. What would your response be? Would that clearly show that HD DVD is a winner?

[Coldgunner]

You have not answered my question. What would you say if, HD DVD Group did that and you saw millions of discs sold in the first week that would completely decimate Blu-Ray sales for all discs combined. What would your response be? Would that clearly show that HD DVD is a winner?

You seem to forget time and time again is that there are markets outside of the US that are not interested in combos etc. all the effects of a few titles being combos would be on the market is yet another sales spike. Also, only providing hd-dvd combos is forcing consumer dvd sales into the hd pile, skewing the numbers? you said the exact same thing about ps3 sales skewing bd player sales numbers.

[+Audioboxer]

Who cares if Blu Ray done BOGOs - Part of the marketing to get your format on top. Boz honestly why do you KEEP going on about them? They are absolutely great for consumers.

HD-DVD should of as well. What they did instead was intense state side marketing, which = business failure on their behalf.

Europe/Japan counts as well, especially as the PS3 is sold and heavily marketed worldwide.

And again who cares if Blu Ray players are predominantly PS3s? The PS3 is a fully featured Blu Ray player, and a good one at that - Argubaly the best choice.

HD-DVD lost this war themselves, and they are slowly putting nails into their coffin as each day goes by. They completely failed on marketing and brand name recognition.

Also for the record, if HD-DVD was in the position Blu Ray are just now, you'd be reveling in the success and claiming the war was over, hell you seem to think the war would be in HD-DVDs favour if they had a good few weeks, let alone a whole year (Blu Ray has been on top 95% of the year).

[kak]

This is not true, they've been trying to transition DVD to HD DVD for a while. The overall GOAL of HDM IS to replace DVD. Second, as I said, at $20-$25, HD DVD/DVD hybrid disc that would play on any DVD or HD DVD players would not be more expensive. This is for how much brand new DVD releases are going for..

You have not answered my question. What would you say if, HD DVD Group did that and you saw millions of discs sold in the first week that would completely decimate Blu-Ray sales for all discs combined. What would your response be? Would that clearly show that HD DVD is a winner?

They've been unsuccessfully trying. $20-25 combo discs would be good for HD-DVD, but then we remember that it hasn't happened yet [it needs to happen now for them] and that combo discs don't work 100%.

Your question isn't a good question. Blu-Ray sales have dominated the new year, this is fact. If HD-DVD had a few good weeks, it wouldn't be a big deal given the fact that Blu-Ray dominated sales for the majority of the previous year. Clearly, it wouldn't show HD-DVD as a clear winner but maybe a more formidable competitor.

[DrCheese]

First of all HD DVD owners did abstain from purchasing to see the response from the HD DVD group.

yeah what a fantastic response as well. Hiding/running away from CES and afterward's the best response they can come up with is lowering the cost of HD-DVD players and remarketing them as "Mainly upconverting players."(Which they are good at) All that looks like is Toshiba is covering its backside whist they dump stock as quickly as they can. Its pretty shocking to try to sell next generation gear mainly on what last generation stuff it can do.

Then you had the exclusive studio's sitting quietly. When paramount eventually bothered to say anything all they mainly announced was stuff that had previously been announced. There was nothing majorly new at all. Universals response was just as quiet.

If I was a HD-DVD owner, I doubt I'd be feeling confidence in the format at this point.(Tho I'd be enjoying Star trek TOS in HD :p)

Let me ask you, hypothetically, let's say that HD DVD does indeed publishes a few big titles on twin disc or combo disc for about $20-$25 (for what regular DVD releases go for) with no DVD on sale. After a week the ratio for HD DVDs over Blu-Ray sold would be 99:1. I'm interested to see what your answer would be?

This has been addressed on the AVS insider thread fairly recently.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread....42&page=154

There are some mummer's that the HD-DVD group tried to get studio's to do this but the studio's weren't keen on it, i.e they wasn't keen on any risk that could hurt DVD sales, risk of player incompatibilities, the extra costs of making and then subsiding the discs, some issues with the production lines(It's much more complex to make/yield rates are lower) etc.

Besides, even if some miracle happened and they managed to do it its way to late into this now. They still only have two major studio's releasing.

Why is it unfair? It is "fiddling with numbers"

Once again its not unfair because the other side could have done exactly the same if it wanted to. Sure it might mean that the numbers are fudged but BOGO's are a legal sales practice.

but I think that it's more important to make hardware dirt cheap even by subsidizing

I agree that Toshiba subisiding hardware was fantastic for the consumer but it hurt Toshiba quite a bit because no other CE would jump in because they simply could not compete profitability with it. I know its a great thing for the consumer but not great for industry support.

Edited January 20, 2008 by DrCheese

[Boz]

They've been unsuccessfully trying. $20-25 combo discs would be good for HD-DVD, but then we remember that it hasn't happened yet [it needs to happen now for them] and that combo discs don't work 100%.

Your question isn't a good question. Blu-Ray sales have dominated the new year, this is fact. If HD-DVD had a few good weeks, it wouldn't be a big deal given the fact that Blu-Ray dominated sales for the majority of the previous year. Clearly, it wouldn't show HD-DVD as a clear winner but maybe a more formidable competitor.

This is not true. Combo discs were just fine, the problem is in authoring not discs or players. There are only very few titles that caused problems as combos and you can fix the problem by replacing the disc for a new copy. Please don't spread disinformation. Most people complaining about combos not working are Blu.

I have had HD DVD players as standalone, the 360 add-on and have bunch of combos in my collection. I had absolutely NO problems with them on any of the players. The only disc I had problems with was Children of Men on Xbox 360 add-on which was fixed with the XBL update.

I'm certain that my question is not good because it strikes at the core of Blu propaganda. If twin discs (even better then combo), a disc with both versions of the movie on 1 side of the disc with art and everything that works on both DVD player and HD DVD player is very possible scenario, appear on the market to replace some new upcoming movies from Universal or Paramount, if nothing at least 1 or 2, the numbers would be completely out of whack and show complete dominance of Blu-Ray in sales.

It would be a win win situation. People would rebuy their collections regardless to get the hi-def versions, regular folks would buy the new DVD and get HD version literally for free and the player being $120 they could take advantage of HD DVD in a second for dirt cheap.

Going by Blu tactic, I would say that HD DVD would win the war. Simple as that.

[Coldgunner]

thats still forcing what is essentially dvd users to buy into a format they may not be interested in. If they did this though, it would still fail as the rest of the world don't have/want combos. they need the worldwide market, not just the US one.

edit: gotta love the ad at the bottom of my browser

[Boz]

yeah what a fantastic response as well. Hiding/running away from CES and afterward's the best response they can come up with is lowering the cost of HD-DVD players and remarketing them as "Mainly upconverting players."(Which they are good at) All that looks like is Toshiba is covering its backside whist they dump stock as quickly as they can. Its pretty shocking to try to sell next generation gear mainly on what last generation stuff it can do.

Then you had the exclusive studio's sitting quietly. When paramount eventually bothered to say anything all they mainly announced was stuff that had previously been announced. There was nothing majorly new at all. Universals response was just as quiet.

If I was a HD-DVD owner, I doubt I'd be feeling confidence in the format at this point.(Tho I'd be enjoying Star trek TOS in HD :p )

This has been addressed on the AVS insider thread fairly recently.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread....42&page=154

There are some mummer's that the HD-DVD group tried to get studio's to do this but the studio's weren't keen on it, i.e they wasn't keen on any risk that could hurt DVD sales, risk of player incompatibilities, the extra costs of making and then subsiding the discs, some issues with the production lines(It's much more complex to make/yield rates are lower) etc.

Besides, even if some miracle happened and they managed to do it its way to late into this now. They still only have two major studio's releasing.

Once again its not unfair because the other side could have done exactly the same if it wanted to. Sure it might mean that the numbers are fudged but BOGO's are a legal sales practice.

I agree that Toshiba subisiding hardware was fantastic for the consumer but it hurt Toshiba quite a bit because no other CE would jump in because they simply could not compete profitability with it. I know its a great thing for the consumer but not great for industry support.

Yes, that's by Dave Vaughn. I think that the guy is competely bought. I've been reading his responses from the start and the guy is sounding like a Blu-ray PR person now. He is stating things as valid, the same things we was quite reasonable criticized before. Shame, how things can change like that. The guy did a complete 360. Spinless individual. If you read his previous responses for a WHILE you would understand what I'm talking about. Now, suddenly, he's proclaiming the same things he was critisizing. Paid off hypocrit. His movie reviews reflect this as well.

Second, there's nothing unfair about BOGOs. I just pointed out that they are NOT VALID measure of consumer purchasing and that it's highly disgenuous to claim otherwise.

Besides, even if some miracle happened and they managed to do it its way to late into this now. They still only have two major studio's releasing.

This is ridiculous. How is it too late when both hold 1.6% of DVD market share. Give me a break. Alliances can change again. Things can happen that can shift exclusivity either way, just because Blu at this point has 20% more content doesn't mean that it's over. I personally think that $120 players will make a huge shift.

Amazon numbers are up again for HD DVD. HD DVD players are #1 in all DVD players and HD DVD player is #8 in ALL electronics. Sure, it will take a month or two to start seeing some push in software sales, but I think that's where Toshiba needs to motivate financially more BOGOs so those new owners go and pick up the titles.

thats still forcing what is essentially dvd users to buy into a format they may not be interested in. If they did this though, it would still fail as the rest of the world don't have/want combos. they need the worldwide market, not just the US one.

It's not forcing anyone. You are getting a DVD version you bought, but you gain an HD version if you have an HD DVD players. It's interesting how you don't see repurchasing the actual Blu-Ray player to use all features of the discs and spend more money with no reason to do so wrong and you complain about added feature to the DVD that might be introduced at the same price as regular DVDs.

Quite funny.

[kak]

This is not true. Combo discs were just fine, the problem is in authoring not discs or players. There are only very few titles that caused problems as combos and you can fix the problem by replacing the disc for a new copy. Please don't spread disinformation. Most people complaining about combos not working are Blu.

Not true? So combo discs are fine pending you get a good disc. Seems odd to me that they would flood the market with potentially bad discs and it not be the discs fault. Its really ironic given HD-DVD propaganda has been that 50GB BD have bad yield rates yet combos malfunction all the time. Its a common problem and you know it. Two out of my three combos work fine, but the third won't play unless I try about 10-15 times. Its happened with two copies of the movie. All three are Universal too.

I have had HD DVD players as standalone, the 360 add-on and have bunch of combos in my collection. I had absolutely NO problems with them on any of the players. The only disc I had problems with was Children of Men on Xbox 360 add-on which was fixed with the XBL update.

Wait, let me get this straight. You don't fault HD-DVD [that much] for problematic discs that require updates to play correctly yet it is an issue that plagues BR and is a disadvantage to the consumers. Its been argued quite often.

I'm certain that my question is not good because it strikes at the core of Blu propaganda. If twin discs (even better then combo), a disc with both versions of the movie on 1 side of the disc with art and everything that works on both DVD player and HD DVD player is very possible scenario, appear on the market to replace some new upcoming movies from Universal or Paramount, if nothing at least 1 or 2, the numbers would be completely out of whack and show complete dominance of Blu-Ray in sales.

It would be a win win situation. People would rebuy their collections regardless to get the hi-def versions, regular folks would buy the new DVD and get HD version literally for free and the player being $120 they could take advantage of HD DVD in a second for dirt cheap.

Going by Blu tactic, I would say that HD DVD would win the war. Simple as that.

The numbers wouldn't be out of whack because of a new replication method. It would still be labeled a combo disc and sell the exact same. The ONLY way this would work is if Toshiba gave loads of money for Universal and Paramount to stop production standard definition DVDs, which won't happen because it would cost entirely way too much money for them to give up that market [and coerce their consumers to buy into HDM].

Toshiba is doing this all too late. If they had dropped prices this drastically earlier, Warner would have most likely gone Blu. However, they didn't do it and Blu-Ray sales dominated the holiday season and will continue to dominate until about the third week in February [given the current list of releases for HD-DVD]. It stinks for them, but there is always a loser.

[DrCheese]

So bogo's are fudging the numbers yet combo's aren't? lol....

Studio's simply weren't prepared to take the risk of combo's only. They cost the studio's more for a start and then there's yield issues. They would have either had to subsides them to sell them at DVD prices or raised the price. Both would have hurt the profit margin for a title.

They also want to re-release catalog titles at a higher price than already released DVD's so they can make extra profit. Do you think they would have pulled every existing DVD title from the market and reissued them as combo's? Not a chance. So in that respect, it wasn't in studio's advantage.

I can't deny that combo's done right would have probably changed the way the war went but quite frankly to think that at this stage of the war they will do much is pretty funny. Warner was the only studio that warmed to them anyway.

[Coldgunner]

It's not forcing anyone. You are getting a DVD version you bought, but you gain an HD version if you have an HD DVD players. It's interesting how you don't see repurchasing the actual Blu-Ray player to use all features of the discs and spend more money with no reason to do so and you complain about added feature to the DVD.

Quite funny.

Very funny, considering that all bd players will be able to play extra features, all that was added for consumers was PiP and soon to be internet features, which are quite useless on both formats. internet features can be dropped at any point .

[+Audioboxer]

This is not true. Combo discs were just fine, the problem is in authoring not discs or players. There are only very few titles that caused problems as combos and you can fix the problem by replacing the disc for a new copy. Please don't spread disinformation. Most people complaining about combos not working are Blu.

I have had HD DVD players as standalone, the 360 add-on and have bunch of combos in my collection. I had absolutely NO problems with them on any of the players. The only disc I had problems with was Children of Men on Xbox 360 add-on which was fixed with the XBL update.

I'm certain that my question is not good because it strikes at the core of Blu propaganda. If twin discs (even better then combo), a disc with both versions of the movie on 1 side of the disc with art and everything that works on both DVD player and HD DVD player is very possible scenario, appear on the market to replace some new upcoming movies from Universal or Paramount, if nothing at least 1 or 2, the numbers would be completely out of whack and show complete dominance of Blu-Ray in sales.

It would be a win win situation. People would rebuy their collections regardless to get the hi-def versions, regular folks would buy the new DVD and get HD version literally for free and the player being $120 they could take advantage of HD DVD in a second for dirt cheap.

Going by Blu tactic, I would say that HD DVD would win the war. Simple as that.

Which is why Blu Ray are winning the war.

Nothing is going to change till HD-DVD get their marketing right.

The USA can't win a war for a whole format.

HD-DVD is non existant in the UK.

So yes, if they had the marketing Blu Ray has, and a built in player in a popular console such as the 360, they'd no doubt be winning right now - But they don't.

[Boz]

Which is why Blu Ray are winning the war.

Nothing is going to change till HD-DVD get their marketing right.

The USA can't win a war for a whole format.

HD-DVD is non existant in the UK.

So yes, if they had the marketing Blu Ray has, and a built in player in a popular console such as the 360, they'd no doubt be winning right now - But they don't.

You are right about marketing, I think that Toshiba and HD DVD Group are absolutely miserable in marketing. They just plain suck.

I can't agree that Blu-Ray is winning the war per se. It's winning the marketing war that in fact can bring the public acceptance.

The real issue I have with Blu-Ray in general is that the war is not decided on the merits of formats and what they bring to the consumer but corporate alliances that in fact play against the consumer.

[ctebah]

hang on.....lol.

[Coldgunner]

The real issue I have with Blu-Ray in general is that the war is not decided on the merits of formats and what they bring to the consumer but corporate alliances that in fact play against the consumer.

Like it or lump it, but thats business...

[DrCheese]

but corporate alliances that in fact play against the consumer.

You mean like the HD-DVD group buying out paramount? :p

Both side's are just as guilty of it, the BDA was just better at it, before the war and during it.

[Boz]

You mean like the HD-DVD group buying out paramount? :p

Both side's are just as guilty of it, the BDA was just better at it, before the war and during it.

It's just a consequence of BDA play. I have not noticed a single thing where HD DVD Group played unethically except for the incentives with Paramount which was if correct fairly small amount. $100m for paramount and $50 million for Dreamworks.

But look what BDA did. You can argue where's proof but we all know that this is what they do.

1. Bought MGM

2. Sony owns numerous studios under it's umbrella

3. Paid off Disney and Fox

4. Paid off certain retailers not to carry HD DVD

5. Paid off rental places to stop carrying HD DVD

6. Finally paid off Warner to go Blu

One can argue that this is how you do business but to me this is a problem. When one association works so hard to prevent physicially their competor from reaching consumers hands and the competitor actually has a finished and overall better product for much less, then I have to call anti-consumer behavior.

I'm absolutely certain that there will be some legal ramifications for this. The only reason we are seeing a lot of things like this slide is because in essence we are talking about less then 2% of market in general, but the question will be raised, I'm certain off it. There is a reason why there was an anti-trust inquiry in the beginning. That isn't over yet.

[kak]

It's just a consequence of BDA play. I have not noticed a single thing where HD DVD Group played unethically except for the incentives with Paramount which was if correct fairly small amount. $100m for paramount and $50 million for Dreamworks.

But look what BDA did. You can argue where's proof but we all know that this is what they do.

1. Bought MGM

2. Sony owns numerous studios under it's umbrella

3. Paid off Disney and Fox

4. Paid off certain retailers not to carry HD DVD

5. Paid off rental places to stop carrying HD DVD

6. Finally paid off Warner to go Blu

One can argue that this is how you do business but to me this is a problem. When one association works so hard to prevent physicially their competor from reaching consumers hands and the competitor actually has a finished and overall better product for much less, then I have to call anti-consumer behavior.

I'm absolutely certain that there will be some legal ramifications for this. The only reason we are seeing a lot of things like this slide is because in essence we are talking about less then 2% of market in general, but the question will be raised, I'm certain off it. There is a reason why there was an anti-trust inquiry in the beginning. That isn't over yet.

3 and 6 are rumors at best [with 3 being the more believable one]. Why would Warner only go Blu after Fox wouldn't go HD-DVD? It would make no sense for a payoff to be in place then. They have also denied it to the end of the world.

The fact that both associations actively tried to undo each other via buyouts will prevent an anti-trust case. Just because the one you didn't want to win or is on the path to winning doesn't make a case any stronger. Its the same logic as now that Blu is winning that the public will wait for digital downloads. It won't happen.

[Coldgunner]

It's just a consequence of BDA play. I have not noticed a single thing where HD DVD Group played unethically except for the incentives with Paramount which was if correct fairly small amount. $100m for paramount and $50 million for Dreamworks.

But look what BDA did. You can argue where's proof but we all know that this is what they do.

1. Bought MGM

2. Sony owns numerous studios under it's umbrella

3. Paid off Disney and Fox

4. Paid off certain retailers not to carry HD DVD

5. Paid off rental places to stop carrying HD DVD

6. Finally paid off Warner to go Blu

One can argue that this is how you do business but to me this is a problem. When one association works so hard to prevent physicially their competor from reaching consumers hands and the competitor actually has a finished and overall better product for much less, then I have to call anti-consumer behavior.

I'm absolutely certain that there will be some legal ramifications for this. The only reason we are seeing a lot of things like this slide is because in essence we are talking about less then 2% of market in general, but the question will be raised, I'm certain off it. There is a reason why there was an anti-trust inquiry in the beginning. That isn't over yet.

So it was ok for MS to pay toshiba to use their technology, even though toshiba was ready to use BD-J. Its MS's fault that this war existed. Toshiba could have done the same and 'paid off' more studios to go red, they didn't and now they feel the consequences. lets not forget all the buying out MS has done over the years, paying off games developers to go x360, 'forcing' people to have to buy a x360 to play their favourite games.

Payoffs may be unfair, but unfortunately thats how business works, if I were CEO of a company and another company gave me similar amounts of money to these proven and unproven payouts, I'd jump at it.

[Vortex566]

So it was okay for MS to pay Toshiba to use their technology, even though Toshiba was ready to use BD-J. Its MS's fault that this war existed. Toshiba could have done the same and 'paid off' more studios to go red, they didn't and now they feel the consequences. lets not forget all the buying out MS has done over the years, paying off games developers to go x360, 'forcing' people to have to buy a x360 to play their favourite games.

Payoffs may be unfair, but unfortunately that's how business works, if I were CEO of a company and another company gave me similar amounts of money to these proven and unproven payouts, I'd jump at it.

I have stayed out of this war on neowin. However you could not have said it better coldgunner. Payoffs do happen in business deal with it. Also everyone seems to bash Sony but Microsoft of course are never guilty of anything. The only reason the Xbox got of running was Halo. Which was only on the Xbox because of Microsoft buying Bungie !

[Boz]

So it was ok for MS to pay toshiba to use their technology, even though toshiba was ready to use BD-J. Its MS's fault that this war existed. Toshiba could have done the same and 'paid off' more studios to go red, they didn't and now they feel the consequences. lets not forget all the buying out MS has done over the years, paying off games developers to go x360, 'forcing' people to have to buy a x360 to play their favourite games.

Payoffs may be unfair, but unfortunately thats how business works, if I were CEO of a company and another company gave me similar amounts of money to these proven and unproven payouts, I'd jump at it.

You obviously can't see the difference between the two. Buying a specific game for a specific console is something the same to you as buying off the whole studios and actually preventing consumers from getting the product in retail? That's not business as usual man.

What you are talking about is 1 specific game being developed exclusively for a console or a console maker buying a developer. Not publishing company, a DEVELOPER. That is business, but let's not forget that buying off developers and securing exclusives was one of the major things with Sony, or you are forgetting that they had 80% of console market and A LOT of games exclusively developed for PS2? THey are the ones who started it really. They are quite known for that.

But let's not get into that, that's a completely different thing. What we are seeing right now is something else with studios and retailers. It would be same if Microsoft for example, now went and secured (financially reimbursed in hundreds of millions of dollars in replication costs etc) Ubisoft, EA, Activision and 2K Games to publish all of their games EXCLUSIVELY on Xbox 360. Not only that, but they actually go and use their influence at retailers as well and make deals where they cut the PS3 availability at many retail locations. On top of that, they go and make a deal with Blockbuster where you can't even RENT PS3 games at their stores.

Let me ask you, would you still think that it's business as usual? Because that's EXACTLY how it is now with HD DVD and Blu-Ray.