E3 2009: Microsoft Promises Transformational Show


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Going with HD-DVD would be the best option IMO. Extremely reduced piracy, cheaper production, much more space than DVD and the best of all, they could also support BluRay. IIRC both formats use the same laser diodes, they could very well make a drive that supported both formats, one for games and another one for movies.

Not to mention it would also play the whole HD-DVD back catalog.

Can people please tell me how it's cheaper to produce something that absolutely no one is going to use but yourself? As I've said about 20 times, you do realize you would need to construct your own manufacturing lines to do that as opposed to outsourcing the parts from already in-place manufacturers? So instead of just making the discs/drives you also need to pay wages for all the people building them, and running costs for all the plants.

Blu Ray drives as an individual component are going to be dirt cheap in a few years, they only cost like ?50-60 for your PC right now, at consumer price, not trade price like MS would get (coupled with bulk buying discounts).

Having a dual drive is a much better idea than just having HD-DVD, I'll give you that. However it still strikes me as crazy at the amount of 360 fans we have campaigning to bring back a dead format for the next Xbox:laugh::

Not to mention it would also play the whole HD-DVD back catalog.

There's already one studio replacing HD-DVDs with Blu Rays for you. Not to mention for MS to allow HD-DVD MOVIE playback in the next console they'd probably have to pay a licensing fee to Toshiba, as strange as that sounds. Unless whatever they paid to allow the HD-DVD addon the 360 to play movies carries over.

MS have never adopted a proprietary format in the past for a good reason, because it's costly and the format usuallyfails>. Neither had Sony up until UMD, now look at it, it's getting ditched completely (although had they lost the HD war, Blu Ray would have became proprietary for them). Did the Xbox use something proprietary after the PS2 brought games to DVD? No. They used DVD. Why? Because it was industry standard meaning cheap to use, and people were buying movies on DVD.

I done some digging for what it's worth, even although I have no idea what kind of licensing MS would need

The fee for BD-ROM Commercial Audiovisual Content license FLLA is $4,000 for a licensed term of 5 years.

The licensee receives BD-ROM Part 2: File Systems Specifications and Part 3 Audio Visual Basic Specifications.

Source: http://www.blu-raydisc.info/faq.php

Panasonic, Philips and Sony said that the license program will be offered by a new independent licensing company to be based in the United States with branch offices in Asia, Europe and Latin America. The CEO of the new license company will be Gerald Rosenthal, former head of IP at IBM and more recently CEO of Open Invention Network.

However, this new company will only be a start as "other holders of essential patents for Blu-ray disc, DVD and CD patents [are] invited to join this licensing entity as a licensor and also as shareholder." The cost of jumping into Blu-ray can still be substantial, as the licensing company will charge $9.50 for every Blu-ray player, $14.50 for a recorder, $0.11 for a read-only disc, $0.12 for a recordable disc and $0.15 for a rewriteable disc. And still, the license fees are expected to be "40% lower than the current cumulative royalty rates for individual Blu-ray disc, DVD and CD format licenses."

Source: http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/41568/98/

Edited by Audioboxer
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With regards to HD DVD and it's manufacturing there is nothing special about it. Uses Blu Laser like Blu-Ray, the discs can be made with the same DVD manufacturing equipment so no extra cost unlike Blu-Ray manufacturing and there is no wonder tech that just gets used for HD DVD so all this talk about it costing too much going alone is absolute balls. Anyway, don't see it being used at all but I just had to say that.

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Can people please tell me how it's cheaper to produce something that absolutely no one is going to use but yourself? As I've said about 20 times, you do realize you would need to construct your own manufacturing lines to do that as opposed to outsourcing the parts from already in-place manufacturers? So instead of just making the discs/drives you also need to pay wages for all the people building them, and running costs for all the plants.

Blu Ray drives as an individual component are going to be dirt cheap in a few years, they only cost like ?50-60 for your PC right now, at consumer price, not trade price like MS would get (coupled with bulk buying discounts).

Having a dual drive is a much better idea than just having HD-DVD, I'll give you that. However it still strikes me as crazy at the amount of 360 fans we have campaigning to bring back a dead format for the next Xbox:laugh::

There's already one studio replacing HD-DVDs with Blu Rays for you.

I done some digging for what it's worth, even although I have no idea what kind of licensing MS would need

Source: http://www.blu-raydisc.info/faq.php

Source: http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/41568/98/

Yes and we heard you the 20 times, we're toying with an interesting idea here without having all or any of the facts behind the scene, you don't have them either so why would you be able to dismiss that on some guess work? None of us know the true cost ratio in these situations but as I've said, simple logic will tell you, going Blu-ray as a movie and game format will cost Microsoft quite a bit, so might as well explore other options.

And just because its 'dead' doesn't mean it can't serve a purpose, sounds to me you are just overly attached to Blu-ray as a format to see why it would be sensible to go aPOSSIBLE> cheaper route to achieve the same possibilities in Next-gen gaming.

As for the numbers, exactly, you would have no idea what kind of licensing MS would need, a gaming console and using it as a gaming format as well? I have this weird hunch it would cost them a lot more since it appears not even to be on their table of topics right now, since Microsoft is their only likely customer for the gaming side of it, so they'd have to bring the price up for review, Sony would most likely up the cost a bit perhaps even prohibit them or limiting their use of the Blu-ray drive as a gaming format? Anything is possible, they are competitors and when it comes to businesses these days, it's dog eat dog whenever possible. I believe there was a few court cases where Microsoft and Sony were involved ( Believe it was rumble? ), Microsoft just slid a huge fine under Sony's door in a very clever way - They will do anything.

This is all just toying with an idea without having all the facts, we're just looking at it from the surface and applying some 'personal' logic.

EDIT: Excellent point above from WooHoo.

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With regards to HD DVD and it's manufacturing there is nothing special about it. Uses Blu Laser like Blu-Ray, the discs can be made with the same DVD manufacturing equipment so no extra cost unlike Blu-Ray manufacturing and there is no wonder tech that just gets used for HD DVD so all this talk about it costing too much going alone is absolute balls. Anyway, don't see it being used at all but I just had to say that.

*Sigh*

You still need a separate manufacturing line to make the HD-DVD drives. Absolutely no one currently makes HD-DVD drives so it's cost on MS' plate to do it themselves or pay someone else to do it. Rather than just buying already manufactured Blu Ray drives like they currently do with their 360 DVD drives.

Can Blu Ray drives in existence play HD-DVDs? No they can't.

Components are different even although they use the same laser diode.

Then you have the discs, no one makes HD-DVD discs any more.

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You do know there isn't any extra science in creating an HD-DVD drive, it's pretty much just replacing the diode with a blue diode, it's quite easy to have the robot or the Chinese guy sitting at the assembly table put in one of those instead. It won't cost them an arm and a leg.

Components inside consist of a open / close mechanism, some plastic to hold the disc and the reading unit ...

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You do know there isn't any extra science in creating an HD-DVD drive, it's pretty much just replacing the diode with a blue diode, it's quite easy to have the robot or the Chinese guy sitting at the assembly table put in one of those instead. It won't cost them an arm and a leg.

It's still an additional cost and a requirement for more manufacturing lines. Something that would not be needed at all using existing tech.

You do realize consoles can sell up to/over 100 million units? "One" guy/robot at an assembly table is not enough.

MS will have to be pumping out hundreds of thousands of these HD-DVD drives at once, as well as hundred of millions of HD-DVD discs. It's all on MS' shoulders to create them, no one else can help them, no company at Christmas can held the load of sales by sending them a couple of million HD-DVD drives, no one else makes HD-DVD drives.

Edited by Audioboxer
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The way I see it is that using an HD-DVD drive will help sell the new console, and with that in mind, MS could be willing to do just about anything. You can just never doubt Microsoft :p

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No, are you kidding me here AB?! That just blew my mind, I was so sure one guy made it all, didn't use that as an example at all, nope.

They probably don't even have to shell out that much money considering they had an HD-DVD manufacturing line, they have plenty of manufacturing lines for all their periphals, it's not as big a problem as you are making it out to be - If they wanted to start up the HD-DVD manfurfaction they could probably do it quite easily since they have made 'em before, it would probably cost them a lot less than the alternatives.

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The way I see it is that using an HD-DVD drive will help sell the new console, and with that in mind, MS could be willing to do just about anything. You can just never doubt Microsoft :p

How on earth is HD-DVD going to help sell the next console? It does nothing extra for the consumer and has the perception of a failed format.

Anyone think of that? The PR nightmare of MS coming out and saying "We're using HD-DVD". The media will be like "Ehhhh MS, you backed that format before and it failed...."

It's like Sony coming out and saying the PSP2 is going to use UMD, after killing it off on the PSP. Will not help public image/perception.

No, are you kidding me here AB?! That just blew my mind, I was so sure one guy made it all, didn't use that as an example at all, nope.

They probably don't even have to shell out that much money considering they had an HD-DVD manufacturing line, they have plenty of manufacturing lines for all their periphals, it's not as big a problem as you are making it out to be - If they wanted to start up the HD-DVD manfurfaction they could probably do it quite easily since they have made 'em before, it would probably cost them a lot less than the alternatives.

Yes they made them before, but they stopped.

Questions to put to that

a) Did MS make them themselves? Answer - Probably not, Toshiba most likely supplied the drives in light of Toshiba believing MS could help them in the crusade for HD-DVD to conquer.

b) If MS did make them themselves what are those existing manufacturing lines now used for? Answer - Probably to help create more Xbox 360s or games, meaning to go back on that is to divert a share of resources off something else.

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How on earth is HD-DVD going to help sell the next console? It does nothing extra for the consumer and has the perception of a failed format.

Anyone think of that? The PR nightmare of MS coming out and saying "We're using HD-DVD".

They could announce it as a proprietary format and the consumer wouldn't know it was a 'dead' format, just a step up from DVD in terms of space. So if they played their cards right, it wouldn't be a PR nightmare at all, just an opportunity for gamers and developers for a new format at a POSSIBLE reduced cost.

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How on earth is HD-DVD going to help sell the next console? It does nothing extra for the consumer and has the perception of a failed format.

Anyone think of that? The PR nightmare of MS coming out and saying "We're using HD-DVD". The media will be like "Ehhhh MS, you backed that format before and it failed...."

Um, so the general public i.e. potential customers won't be attracted to the new console if one of it's features is an HD-DVD drive? It's still a step up from the current generation of DVD drives inside consoles (minus the PS3's Blu-ray drive).

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Um, so the general public i.e. potential customers won't be attracted to the new console if one of it's features is an HD-DVD drive? It's still a step up from the current generation of DVD drives inside consoles (minus the PS3's Blu-ray drive).

The feature of an HD-DVD drive is just increased space.

Most consumers expect that each generation to aid the perception of new console, "bigger" games, more disc space required, etc. People are not going to be thinking "Ohhh that HD-DVD drive offsets some of my wallets cost due to this feature". Where as if it can play HD movies and you're shelling out ?300 that's a genuine additional benefit for whatever TV you hook that console up to.

So my point is there is no additional benefit sale of HD-DVD like "Will play industry standard HD movies".

Yes MS went with DVD this generation and consumers don't mind, all I'm saying is saying our new format has more disc space isn't going to woooh consumers like mad. Sony went on about Blu Rays increased space and this forum was like a battleground about how more space isn't needed and compression deals with everything. If Blu Ray hadn't of played HD movies it would of been even worse, that was the genuine advantage, no disc swapping while an advantage was not going to majorly help sell PS3s.

They could announce it as a proprietary format and the consumer wouldn't know it was a 'dead' format, just a step up from DVD in terms of space. So if they played their cards right, it wouldn't be a PR nightmare at all, just an opportunity for gamers and developers for a new format at aPOSSIBLE> reduced cost.

Then you're going into the renaming game.

Components will still be those from an HD-DVD drive with MS renaming it something different and then the media will go even more bonanza over MS' efforts to use HD-DVD but try to hide it from it's tainted past.

If they go proprietary it's not going to be anything related to HD-DVD at all.

Jumping through all these loop holes/manufacturing lines/disc costs and everything else is not going to be cheaper than paying a Blu Ray license, you will not see HD-DVD in the next Xbox. Proprietary or Blu Ray, and going with MS' past, it doesn't look to be proprietary.

Edited by Audioboxer
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Is that really any different from drive manufactures for the 360 making ones that adhere to Microsoft copy protection ?

I imagine the other hardware parts pushing the juice will be the Xbox itself so a non issue when it comes to HD DVD drives being manufactured as there maybe little expense as it's close to DVD tech. It was all the other hardware which put the cost up and the console takes that piece.

Again, DVD plants can be used for HD DVD without a problem.

Also, I see what you saying. When only one company wants the stuff, it's likely an issue but if it doesn't put companies out of the way as it may be so easy to make and your guaranteed numbers for a couple of years it might be a deal worth taking. China have taken HD DVD on in some way so that might ease things further.

Anyway, I don't see HD DVD going anywhere near Xbox 3. It's Blu-Ray or DD or both.

SKU thought for next gen.

Xbox 3 SKU 1 - Large hard drive, digital distribution only(This will work as stores will sell game cards as we've seen already with GTA Lost and Damned, retail still wins. Lower entry fee for customers.

Xbox 3 SKU 2 - Large hard drive, digital distribution, blu-ray drive. Higher entry fee. This will be the all in one device.

That's a two tier strategy that keeps everyone happy. I can see that working. More and more people are getting use to downloading apps, games on Steam, iPhone, Netflix, Amazon, iTunes etc.. This way, you can get a cheaper console, same games but if you like physical media, the Blu-Ray option is there. Absolute win win.

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Because as a genuine gamer, I care about the gaming possiblities of my console not what movie formats it plays. I, like many other fellow gamers, don't give a toss about watching movies on my console and the sales across the board of the consoles seem to back that up - I just want my console to be 'next-generation' proof without a price-tag that would make even the most hardcore of people faint.

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The feature of an HD-DVD drive is just increased space.

Most consumers expect that each generation to aid the perception of new console, "bigger" games, more disc space required, etc. People are not going to be thinking "Ohhh that HD-DVD drive offsets some of my wallets cost due to this feature". Where as if it can play HD movies and you're shelling out ?300 that's a genuine additional benefit for whatever TV you hook that console up to.

So my point is there is no additional benefit sale of HD-DVD like "Will play industry standard HD movies".

Yes MS went with DVD this generation and consumers don't mind, all I'm saying is saying our new format has more disc space isn't going to woooh consumers like mad. Sony went on about Blu Rays increased space and this forum was like a battleground about how more space isn't needed and compression deals with everything. If Blu Ray hadn't of played HD movies it would of been even worse, that was the genuine advantage, no disc swapping while an advantage was not going to majorly help sell PS3s.

Then you're going into the renaming game.

Components will still be those from an HD-DVD drive with MS renaming it something different and then the media will go even more bonanza over MS' efforts to use HD-DVD but try to hide it from it's tainted past.

If they go proprietary it's not going to be anything related to HD-DVD at all.

Jumping through all these loop holes/manufacturing lines/disc costs and everything else is not going to be cheaper than paying a Blu Ray license, you will not see HD-DVD in the next Xbox. Proprietary or Blu Ray, and going with MS' past, it doesn't look to be proprietary.

The point I'm making is that people will still buy it due to the ''HD-DVD'' tag on the box/adverts. You can't deny that.

If MS did consider HD-DVD as an option then they'd need to compare the costs of distributing HD-DVD compared to the possibilty/costs of using Blu-ray instead.

The next xbox will need to upgrade from DVD, that's for sure (is it not?). Only time will tell what they decide to use.

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Because as a genuine gamer, I care about the gaming possiblities of my console not what movie formats it plays. I, like many other fellow gamers, don't give a toss about watching movies on my console and the sales across the board of the consoles seem to back that up - I just want my console to be 'next-generation' proof without a price-tag that would make even the most hardcore of people faint.

What is a "genuine gamer" ?

Are you about to dismiss every demographic out there saying the only person we should cater for is yourself? I know of lots of people who watch movies through their consoles, consoles have evolved greatly since the days of doing nothing but playing games.

I for one don't have any more space on my sound system to hook up more devices to play movies, and secondly I do not want more boxes under my TV when one device can do it all.

I think MS understand that also tieing up a Netflix deal for one example. That's a completely movie orientated service, nothing to do with gaming.

These devices are being made to cater for a lot more demographics than just people who play games.

Of course standalone movie players drop quicker than consoles, but if you have someone interested in both, it saves money and space not buying a console and then having to buy your movie player on top.

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Because as a genuine gamer, I care about the gaming possiblities of my console not what movie formats it plays. I, like many other fellow gamers, don't give a toss about watching movies on my console and the sales across the board of the consoles seem to back that up - I just want my console to be 'next-generation' proof without a price-tag that would make even the most hardcore of people faint.

+1 totally.

What is a "genuine gamer" ?

Are you about to dismiss every demographic out there saying the only person we should cater for is yourself? I know of lots of people who watch movies through their consoles, consoles have evolved greatly since the days of doing nothing but playing games.

Yes, consoles have evolved greatly since playing just games, however I, and many of the people I know who own xbox 360's don't give a flying toss about playing movies on their 360.

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No I'm speaking on behalf of myself and people who agree with me and I think there's a bigger chance they will go the "Party Game Non-Gamer Demographic Wii" route next time, rather than going by the most expensive console that's in third place, just because it caters for a larger demographic, doesn't mean it will do well.

Expensive multimedia machines aren't exactly paving the way for the next generation which is why I'm just toying with the idea of the cheapest format, that allows the features I care about from the Blu-ray drive without slapping that big, fat "Home Cinema Gamer Machine" tag on it.

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Yes, consoles have evolved greatly since playing just games, however I, and many of the people I know who own xbox 360's don't give a flying toss about playing movies on their 360.

Yes, and I know people who do.

So in MS' shoes what's the best thing to do to maximize sales? Cater for both.

You get more space from Blu Ray for your gaming, in fact more than HD-DVD, then people interested in movies can also play them.

No I'm speaking on behalf of myself and people who agree with me and I think there's a bigger chance they will go the "Party Game Non-Gamer Demographic Wii" route next time, rather than going by the most expensive console that's in third place, just because it caters for a larger demographic, doesn't mean it will do well.

Expensive multimedia machines aren't exactly paving the way for the next generation which is why I'm just toying with the idea of the cheapest format, that allows the features I care about from the Blu-ray drive without slapping that big, fat "Home Cinema Gamer Machine" tag on it.

Where is this perception of Blu Ray hardware costing a lot coming from?

By the time the next Xbox hits in a year plus or whatever Blu Ray will be peanuts compared to what it was in 2006 when Sony launched the PS3 with it.

You do realize Sony had manufacturing costs of around $800+ per PS3 at launch, which in September last year was down to around $440, and will be even less this summer with 45nm.

That cost also greatly ramped due to CELL being brand new.

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Yes, and I know people who do.

So in MS' shoes what's the best thing to do to maximize sales? Cater for both.

You get more space from Blu Ray for your gaming, in fact more than HD-DVD, then people interested in movies can also play them.

But would MS be willing to pay the royalties (and no doubt they'll be huge and way over priced) for blu ray use?

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But would MS be willing to pay the royalties (and no doubt they'll be huge and way over priced) for blu ray use?

I posted links on the last page about royalties.

Sony are not in charge of Blu Ray either, just a stakeholder. Many companies make Blu Ray players right now and have no issues paying royalties, in fact the Chinese are said to even be making players now and we could see $99 players by this Christmas.

MS had no issues paying DVD royalties for the Xbox or Xbox 360.

Toshiba owns HD-DVD also, MS don't, they'd probably have to pay something to use HD-DVD anyway.

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Where is this perception of Blu Ray hardware costing a lot coming from?

By the time the next Xbox hits in a year plus or whatever Blu Ray will be peanuts compared to what it was in 2006 when Sony launched the PS3 with it.

You do realize Sony had manufacturing costs of around $800+ per PS3 at launch, which in September last year was down to around $440, and will be even less this summer with 45nm.

That cost also greatly ramped due to CELL being brand new.

Yes, by the time, in the future, not now. Blu-ray was quite expensive and it still is, have gone down in price and will continue to do so but when I'm talking costly I'm still talking about royalties, royalties we can't even imagine the price of since they will be used as a gaming format in a competitors machine, Sony doesn't own Blu-ray but they have a pretty big stake in it and their word will dictate the way. So this is not about Hardware cost but licensing cost.

As for the constant comparison to every other format using Blu-ray, no, it's not valid when there's such a huge difference.

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Yes, by the time, in the future, not now. Blu-ray was quite expensive and it still is, have gone down in price and will continue to do so but when I'm talking costly I'm still talking about royalties, royalties we can't even imagine the price of since they will be used as a gaming format in a competitors machine, Sony doesn't own Blu-ray but they have a pretty big stake in it and their word will dictate the way. So this is not about Hardware cost but licensing cost.

Blu Ray has won the HD war, a competitors machine being an issue in the sense you're hinting at will be of no real concern next generation. In fact for the sake of Blu Ray I'm sure the BD group will enjoy having it in the next Xbox as the new "threat" of digital distribution rises.

The whole war this generation was just about who gets to win, that is over. MS going with HD-DVD was largely a knee jerk reaction to try and impact on the PS3, that if successful would have left them with a player for the new movie format on their current 360.

Sony's campaign about the superiority of Blu Ray was largely focussed on winning the HD war, not so much about the PS3 vs 360. The console war is fought over many years, Blu Ray vs HD-DVD was always going to be a short term war.

The Playstation 2 adopted DVD as a gaming format, then the Xbox did, not much different here.

The hulabuloo being made out of licensing costs sounds like a perception that some of you think Sony would be able to dictate the licensing costs for MS themselves and make them pay "millions". That is not the case, it's not Sony's decision, it's dictated by the laws and licensing costs of the BDA group.

The "Blu-ray Disc Founder group" was started in May 20, 2002 by nine leading electronic companies: Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Thomson, LG Electronics, Hitachi, Sharp, and Samsung[2].
Blu-ray Disc Association It was inaugurated on October 4, 2004 by 14 companies of Board of Directors which added 20th Century Fox to the 13 above-mentioned companies, Contributors of 22 companies, General members of 37 companies, and a total of 73 companies.

It's not "Sony's decision" and the BDA will want Blu Ray to succeed massively as a movie format, they won't give two hoots about a console war to the point where they won't want Blu Ray in the next Xbox...

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I posted links on the last page about royalties.

Yeah, we need a tl;dr sentence at the end of some of your long posts.

-

Sony are not in charge of Blu Ray either, just a stakeholder. Many companies make Blu Ray players right now and have no issues paying royalties, in fact the Chinese are said to even be making players now and we could see $99 players by this Christmas.

MS had no issues paying DVD royalties for the Xbox or Xbox 360.

Toshiba owns HD-DVD also, MS don't, they'd probably have to pay something to use HD-DVD anyway.

Like Sethos has said before, the costs to use blu ray will indefinitely be a lot more expensive than paying Toshiba to use HD-DVD (although the production costs will go on top of that).

This started off with just toying with ideas, but yeah, seems to have gotten way too serious.

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Why are people even entertaining the thought of HD-DVD. That doesn't make any sense from any standpoint. The format is dead. I'd much rather Microsoft supported Bluray in their next console.

-Spenser

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