The Consoles Battlefield


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It is as clear as can be: Nintendo is stuck in the past, Sony is confused about the present, and Microsoft is preparing for the future. While the Xbox 360 may not be the console with the highest potential out there, Microsoft is playing an incredibly smart game against its rivals that will get bloody later this year. Here are three reasons why Nintendo and Sony are in trouble in the console market and why Microsoft will come out on top.

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Three years ago, I wrote a lengthy analysis about the state of the game console industry and my assessment was very different than what it is today. Back then, it was Nintendo that had the clear lead, Sony was confused, and Microsoft’s Xbox 360 seemed to be a pizza-baking game console without an identity. The times have changed dramatically. Deep into the lifecycle of the three game consoles—a replacement for all of them is expected by 2013—there is an obvious generational trend and it does not take much to predict which vendor will claim the top spot.

The Wii gets old, really old

The Wii has been a breath of fresh air that has shaped the video game industry more than any other current-generation game console. The fact that the Wii retails for less than the other consoles, its simplicity, and its revolutionary game controller has served to give Nintendo the lead. While the PlayStation 3 (PS3) and Xbox 360 were geared for HD gaming and titles that rewarded you for killing as many opponents as possible with as many bullets available, Nintendo concentrated on making video games fun—and not just for those who had a video game console already in their family room.

The Wii opened up new customer segments—Nintendo, for example, has the highest share of female gamers. The Wii is used as an entertainment device in retirement centers. Nintendo has had fantastic ideas to extend the controller concept with devices such as the Balance Board that played right into the needs of U.S. households. And let’s not forget small children who grow up with the Wii. My four-year-old nephew loves to play games on the Wii. He has never touched the Xbox 360 or PS3.

The success of the Wii was compelling enough to convince Microsoft and Sony to play along. It took them a while, but they are almost there. Sony will release family fun games with its new Move controller generation. Imagine that a few years ago—back in 2007, Sony would have gone with a machine gun to demonstrate this new controller. Now we will see ping pong and archery. Lovely.

The problem with Nintendo is, of course, that besides the Balance Board and a slight improvement to the Wii controller system last year, there isn’t much that is new and it almost seems that Nintendo has run out of ideas. It appears that the company hopes the controller is good enough to bridge the time when the next console arrives. My prediction is that it will not.

The Wii is clearly running out of steam, with February 2010 U.S. shipments coming in at 50% below last year’s level (according to analyst firm NPD). The Wii’s market share was at a low of 33.7% in February, down from a high of 65.6% in April 2008.

Nintendo needs a really good idea now, but it may be too late for this console generation. Nintendo simply gambled its lead away. It is as easy as that.

Sony doesn’t get it

I would like to listen in on one of those corporate meetings during which product decisions are made for the PS3. What exactly is happening there that the company comes up with a light bulb flashing and an overly complex version of the Nintendo controller idea? What in the world were they thinking?

But then again, to put it bluntly, Sony seems to have consistent issues with PS3 controllers anyway. When the PS3 came out, the controller design of the PlayStation 2 (PS2) was carried over, only to include a motion-sensing technology hardly anyone used, but without the rumble pack. Sony said at the time that the vibration would interfere with the motion sensing. The firm also thought consumers were dumb enough not to know that the company could not include the vibration technology since it was stuck in a patent-infringement lawsuit with Immersion (which ended up costing Sony well more than $100 million in damages and licensing fees). The rumble pack mysteriously became available as soon as the lawsuit was settled.

Don’t get me wrong, the PlayStation/PS2/PS3 controllers have been working well over the past 16 years and there is no reason to fix something that isn’t broken. But games and the way we control games are changing. So Sony had the amazing idea to copy the concept pioneered by Nintendo in a move that suggests the company wants to play it safe. Why reinvent the wheel when Nintendo’s idea works?

However, Sony added the controls of the regular PS3 controller to the Move controller system, which means that you not only have to know the buttons of the traditional controller, but you must also adapt a natural movement to control games. Am I missing something here? Isn’t the concept of this controller to make gaming more natural and introduce a less-complex navigation concept? Oh, wait, I forgot the light bulb on top of the controller that shows you unmistakably…well, I don’t really know what. Perhaps if you have four players in a game and you want to know whom you are beating up, this might be interesting, but other than that, it is a useless feature wrapped into a hideous product design.

Sony’s biggest problem with the PS3 is available content. For too long, Sony and its partners ignored the need for family-fun games and had their bets on violent games that, at least if you are a parent who in fact pays attention to ESRB ratings, locked many potential gamers out of the market. Probably the biggest mistake has been that its most promising title, GT5, has only been released in little more than demo versions. When GT5 hits retail shelves in late 2010, it will be too late. Sony seems to be changing its focus and is adapting a much broader content strategy, but I believe that the image and brand of the PS3 are set. It will be difficult for Sony to turn the PS3 around, even if a lower price of the console now enables the company to increase its sales numbers.

This one really hurt. I always believed in the PS3 and its enormous hardware power and it was the current-generation console I actually purchased first. It is sad to see how Sony ignores the potential of this magnificent platform.

The Xbox is the future

NPD’s sales numbers have Microsoft in the lead at this time with 422,000 units in February and a market share of 35.8%, which is the highest level since December 2007 when the PS3 and Wii had shipment issues. The Xbox 360 has sold just less than 20 million units in the United States, which is behind the Wii's sales of 28.4 million units, but well ahead of the PS3's sales of 11.8 million units. And if you consider that the Xbox is one year older than its rivals, it is amazing to see that Microsoft has achieved the sales levels it has and that it actually sells the most expensive versions among the different game consoles ($399 for the special-edition Xbox versus $349 for the PS3). It is also remarkable that it can surpass its rivals without the integration of a Blu-ray drive. Microsoft is in the best position it can be in at this point and has a solid foundation to cream both the Wii and the PS3 over the next three years.

Content and a focus on community has brought the Xbox 360 back, even if I still believe that the Xbox 360 has no identity and was designed to be everything for everyone—which may actually work very well for the general consumer. And I still think that Microsoft would build that pizza oven in the Xbox 360 if it could. But if there is anything Microsoft can improve right now, it is its focus and the creation of a clear identity of how the Xbox 360 and its capabilities are defined.

The Xbox 360's identity may come with the arrival of Project Natal, a new controller concept that takes Nintendo’s idea, but pushes it into the future. In some way, it seems that Microsoft has adapted Apple’s strategy of taking an idea or product that has potential and making it better. Natal does away with the need for a controller entirely; instead of holding some plastic device in your hands, you will be able to just use your hands or any other device you feel comfortable with to play your games. For example, in a skateboarding game, you could use a regular skateboard.

Microsoft’s Natal concept and demos have been breathtaking so far. The only question really is whether Natal actually works the way Microsoft has promised. We will know in June when the technology will be presented to the media and later this year when it hits the market.

Even more important, Natal is effectively a refresh for the Xbox 360. It transforms the concept of the console enough to make it appear like a new product. I have no doubt that if Natal works and receives positive reviews, then buyers will flock to the Xbox 360 this Christmas and Nintendo and Sony will have a tough time to keep up.

Microsoft teaches us that it isn’t really about how fast you run at the beginning of a race, but instead, it is about your strategy, your ability to react to changing conditions, and finishing first. There is no doubt in my mind that Microsoft will win this console race and my hat is off to the Xbox 360 product team.

Source : Tom's Guide

Very nice analysis straight to the facts :yes:

pls keep the flames off (Y)

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Go Xbox 360 and Microsoft, I hope they rule the world. Sony's PS3 sucks and only has two good games. And the Nintendo Wii is a toy! etc, etc

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"Win" is a bit of an ambiguous term. If we're talking total console sales I don't think we're going to see the Xbox 360 or PS3 ever catch up to the Wii. The article says that Nintendo has gambled away their lead but looking at the chart they have completely dominated it, just because it has dipped below the Xbox this month that means its game over? If we're talking about some qualitative win there are a lot of criteria that one could judge on but given that the other half of the article is dedicated to talking about Sony and Microsoft's response to Nintendo's new input scheme I would say that speaks pretty highly of their position there too.

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Basically the Xbox 360 is the PS2 of this generation. I said it before and im gonna say it again, the amount of games, the community and the way EVERYONE can adopt tot he system, etc.

The PS2 was the same thing last generation as the xbox died off. The PS2 had SO many games, and such a huge community and EVERYONE had a PS2 and still do. Hell we have 2200 PS2 games at work. Its amazing how well this system did. But then sony came in this generation and ****ed up and kept ****ing up and is continuing to do so.

Nintendo focused at family / kids. Funny thing is, its been proven out of those 28 million 75% probably havent turned it on in forever or rarely use it. Its surprising how many people buy it and come back "yeah its old now". Well thats nintendo for you, look at the DSI XL, people are buying that thing because its "so impressive". Nope, its nintendo running out of ideas.

Regardless, i was PS2 gamer then PC then 360 when I wanted a console. I made my decision based on reputation. I realized XB360 had bad first gen and half 2nd gen but it had/has a lot of potential. Sonys excuses about "removing BC made the system cheaper" and blah blah blah still showed they had **** to work out. The ps3 has a LOT of potential seeing how its been used in ways no one would thought a game console would be used as(ps3 farm, etc). But its still said they havent figured there **** out.

Nintendo releasing the motion sensor was the biggest mistake ever. They admitted to people they didnt include it with the system basically and now charge people $25 for an attachment. I do like the fact that they came out with the controller/motion plus bundles and different colors. People save $10 get both and a color out of black/blue/pink and a lot buy Black or Pink. Havent sold many blues.

Anyway, xb360 wins this generation, lets wait for next generation!

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Go Xbox 360 and Microsoft, I hope they rule the world. Sony's PS3 sucks and only has two good games. And the Nintendo Wii is a toy! etc, etc

Wow, how old are you? Only two good games? God of War 3, Killzone 2, Metal Gear Solid 4, Demons Souls, Wipeout HD, Flower, inFamous, LBP, Valkyria Chronicles, Buzz, Singstar, Uncharted 1/2..... that's just some exclusives I can think of. Let alone the mass of multiplatform ones.

Back on topic the statement is pretty accurate in what they are saying, but really this generation is far from over yet and wouldn't be surprised for both consoles to get even closer in terms of figures as time goes on :)

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I think it will depend if Microsoft wins this generation will depend on Natal, will it be amazing and able to be used in games like ACIII? (Doing my own assassinations FTW?) or will it be a gimmick?

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I think the xbox is going to stay the most popular this generation, because of the price & xbox Live.....but will it be the best? I'm not sure, but I've got an xbox ;)

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in the 80's the mainstream way to refer to video games was "Atari" later "Nintendo"

In the 90's nintendo too and playstation

Early 00 was playstation

But now even Obama says "to play Xbox" that pretty much sums it all (Y)

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Draken, you have sinned.

A horrible thread capable of only stupid posts.

(like this one)

And ..... no, until now yours is the only one :shifty: , just read above and everybody is being mature and calm (well somebody rated 1 star). Those are facts, not fanboy's hallucinations (Y)

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The xbox looks like this gens PS2, its simple as that. It was cheaper to buy than the PS3 and out performs the wii (I'm not going to compare PS3 and 360, they equally haver the pos and negs)

The thing is MS got the marketing right (price and games). I believe alot of the success is from casual PC gamers who moved to the console. No need for expensive hardware upgrades and can hook it up to a nice large HDTV.

I, although, do not own one but I would like too (any free ones??? :p ). But I won't buy one, why? you ask well I have the PS3 and a PC. Albeit the PC is old now and newer games are running crap on it, and I can't afford a new PC. And the cost of a decent GFX card is about the same as a 360 arcade. Simply put right now I can't afford one, and there are only a few games that are exclusive (that I would play) and I just don't think shelling out on a console just to play 3-4 games is worth it.

The only reason I went for the PS3 over the 360 was the BluRay playback ability. If it wasn't for that it would have been the 360.

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The article says that Nintendo has gambled away their lead but looking at the chart they have completely dominated it, just because it has dipped below the Xbox this month that means its game over?

If you were to draw trend lines though to me it looks like the Wii has been in steep decline ever since 2008 while the XBox and PS3 have been on a slow steady rise. The Wii's numbers have been better but they are certainly dropping. Not a sign of game over, but a worrying trend for Nintendo over the past 24 months if you ask me.

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Very interesting read, I tend to agree with the author.

It all basically boils down to how well 360 Natal and PS3 Move is being integrated to mainstream gaming, and most probably the marketing there of.

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Aaaand the console that wins... what does it win? There's seriously enough games on each platform to keep the userbase busy so personally I can't give a rats ass about which side got the biggest slice of the pie :whistle:

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I'm actually curious about Natal. If initial review are good and Natal doesn't reach the Windows platform, I might venture to console territory. One would ask why Natal won't reach the PC unless Microsoft wants to give up its hold on the PC gaming market. It does look like that as the 360 exclusives are not reaching Windows any time soon. Yes, I'm looking at you Fable 2.

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Go Xbox 360 and Microsoft, I hope they rule the world. Sony's PS3 sucks and only has two good games. And the Nintendo Wii is a toy! etc, etc

What he said :laugh:

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Really can't see Natal taking off in a big way, especially looking at the kind of space requirements it needs.

It works in any size living room, big or small.

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If you were to draw trend lines though to me it looks like the Wii has been in steep decline ever since 2008 while the XBox and PS3 have been on a slow steady rise. The Wii's numbers have been better but they are certainly dropping. Not a sign of game over, but a worrying trend for Nintendo over the past 24 months if you ask me.

You do realize those are NPD numbers, meaning North America only, correct? Worldwide, Nintendo's market share is nearly that of MS and Sony combined.

Aaaand the console that wins... what does it win? There's seriously enough games on each platform to keep the userbase busy so personally I can't give a rats ass about which side got the biggest slice of the pie :whistle:

(Y)

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Basically the Xbox 360 is the PS2 of this generation. I said it before and im gonna say it again, the amount of games, the community and the way EVERYONE can adopt tot he system, etc.

The PS2 was the same thing last generation as the xbox died off. The PS2 had SO many games, and such a huge community and EVERYONE had a PS2 and still do. Hell we have 2200 PS2 games at work. Its amazing how well this system did. But then sony came in this generation and ****ed up and kept ****ing up and is continuing to do so.

Nintendo focused at family / kids. Funny thing is, its been proven out of those 28 million 75% probably havent turned it on in forever or rarely use it. Its surprising how many people buy it and come back "yeah its old now". Well thats nintendo for you, look at the DSI XL, people are buying that thing because its "so impressive". Nope, its nintendo running out of ideas.

Regardless, i was PS2 gamer then PC then 360 when I wanted a console. I made my decision based on reputation. I realized XB360 had bad first gen and half 2nd gen but it had/has a lot of potential. Sonys excuses about "removing BC made the system cheaper" and blah blah blah still showed they had **** to work out. The ps3 has a LOT of potential seeing how its been used in ways no one would thought a game console would be used as(ps3 farm, etc). But its still said they havent figured there **** out.

Nintendo releasing the motion sensor was the biggest mistake ever. They admitted to people they didnt include it with the system basically and now charge people $25 for an attachment. I do like the fact that they came out with the controller/motion plus bundles and different colors. People save $10 get both and a color out of black/blue/pink and a lot buy Black or Pink. Havent sold many blues.

Anyway, xb360 wins this generation, lets wait for next generation!

Well for one I doubt they asked 28million people so to say its proven is BS. Also there's this http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/28/ds-sells-125-million-worldwide-wii-up-to-67-million/ they have sold far more then 28 million. Also games Super Mario Galaxy and Zelda Twilight Princess are imo leaps and bounds ahead of any other game this console gen. Only Uncharted 2 has enjoyed the same kind of universal critical acclaim along with the GOTY awards. If SMG2, Metroid Other M and the new Zelda all hit this year and live up to Nintendo standards they will once again so why they have basically written the book on gaming.

Anyways console wars can be good can be bad. Could say the gamer wins because the innovation gets pushed to compete. But then again we get screwed by exclusives.

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Well for one I doubt they asked 28million people so to say its proven is BS. Also there's this http://www.joystiq.c...-to-67-million/ they have sold far more then 28 million. Also games Super Mario Galaxy and Zelda Twilight Princess are imo leaps and bounds ahead of any other game this console gen. Only Uncharted 2 has enjoyed the same kind of universal critical acclaim along with the GOTY awards. If SMG2, Metroid Other M and the new Zelda all hit this year and live up to Nintendo standards they will once again so why they have basically written the book on gaming.

Anyways console wars can be good can be bad. Could say the gamer wins because the innovation gets pushed to compete. But then again we get screwed by exclusives.

Super Mario Galaxy and Zelda are on par with the greatest games this generation - but to say they're leaps and bounds (especially Zelda) is just a slap in the face to games like Uncharted, God of War 3, Heavy Rain, Halo 3 and Gears.

Nintendo has an exceptionally high standard, and it doesn't seem like it in this post, but I absolutely love Zelda/Nintendo and I'd say Zelda has the best potential (well, next to Halo Reach and Natal's bundled game) to walk out with GOTY this year - but that's not really a guarantee. Also, that 28 million number is for America only, while the 67 million number is worldwide.

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You do realize those are NPD numbers, meaning North America only, correct? Worldwide, Nintendo's market share is nearly that of MS and Sony combined.

Yes, yes I do. It's still not a good trend for Nintendo whatever way you slice it. I realise they are still around 20 million units ahead off the top of my head.

Theres other statistics that in the past haven't been too peachy for Nintendo such as the attach rate of the console and the fact that Nintendo pretty much single handidly dominates the top selling games list on the machine last I recall. The later statistic shows third parties have had some troubling gaining a foot on the machine for AAA titles (even if Nintendo can roap in the dosh) while the first shows that possibly too many people are content to just play Wii Sports or whatever.

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Basically the Xbox 360 is the PS2 of this generation.

Not even close, the PS2 outsold the 360 by a HUGE margin, had a massively larger library and far more exclusives. The sales gap between the PS3 and 360 isn't that great and there are very few exclusives compared to the last generation. Xbox Live is the one advantage MS has, but I have to say I still cringe to spend money on it every year and PSN does keep closing the gap (but the gap is still pretty wide). If Sony can keep up the exclusives like they have the past 18 months the sales gap will disappear.

Not sure this generation will have a PS2 that simply dominates all other platforms, the market has become so fragmented.

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