Analyst: 80 million Windows Phones will be sold in 2012

If you're one of the few tech addicts without a smartphone yet, this year might be your time. A report published by Taiwanese firm MIC has predicted that overall smartphone sales will go up by 35.8% from last year, meaning 614 million smartphones will be making their way to pockets everywhere.

The news here is Windows Phone's predicted expansion, with 80 million devices expected to be sold running the recent OS. If MIC are right, it would give Windows Phone a 13% slice of the smartphone market. Android is expected to account for half of devices, while iOS will sit in the middle at a 19% cut.

The tech world has been eager to see how Windows Phone is going to fare in the years to come. Exposure from Nokia's marketing campaign will be sure to increase awareness among consumers, and positive reviews making appearances in the press will likely spark the interest of those looking for a break from the norm.

In Q3 of last year, Nielsen estimated that Windows Phone held a 1.2% market share of smartphones in the US. The OS is still relatively young however, and has plenty of time to earn its reputation. Android, for comparison's sake, had a 2.8% global smartphone market share at a similar point in its life (Q2 2009).

The full report can be read here.

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That's an impressive figure. I kind of wish Verizon / Microsoft were cozy enough with each other to get more WP7 phones on their network. They would likely reach that number easily if VZW picks up the Lumia.

The only WP7 phone they have is the HTC Trophy. It's a respectable phone, but I would have liked a slightly bigger screen (4.3" is my preference). WP7 is a good hybrid phone between the iPhone and Android phones. It would rock if the live tiles were more interactive than just displaying info. Also, it would be very cool if someone could figure out how to run Android apps on a WP7 phone. Alas, that last thought is just a pipe dream for me.

I think some of you might see things differently if the rumours of RIM licensing some of the BlackBerry OS components is true.

yawn. 79 million of those will be given free to reporters, bloggers, etc. you know. bombastic bamboozling nincompoops who write glowing reviews, defend its so-called merit online for microsoft. yaaaawn. so what else is new.

2012 is also the year where the Tango update will be released which will open WP7 up tot the cheaper smartphones. So that might give them a boost too

Stoffel said,
2012 is also the year where the Tango update will be released which will open WP7 up tot the cheaper smartphones. So that might give them a boost too

Won't take long for Nokia to convert their 1 Million Belle (Symbian) sets / day manufacturing to WP7 once Tango drops.

What a bull**** report. Android was ALREADY at 52% last quarter and still growing fast, so there's no way Android will account for only half of the sales in 2012.
Extrapolating current figures (and even assuming Android's growth is slowing, which there are still no signs of), AT LEAST 65% of smartphones sold in 2012 will be Android.

That leaves around 30% for Apple, Microsoft and RIM (assuming Bada, Symbian etc. account for 5%). Apple will stay flat at 15%, RIM will fall from 11% to around 8%, which leaves another 7% for Microsoft.

That will be about 40-50 million WP7 devices.

drphysx said,
What a bull**** report. Android was ALREADY at 52% last quarter and still growing fast, so there's no way Android will account for only half of the sales in 2012.

Don't quote feature phone OSes in your extrapolation of figures in smartphone markets.
Secondly, How many 1st and 2nd gen Android users are going to willingly buy another Android device after being **** on by their manufacturer and carrier over updates.
These folks are up for renewal this year.

The more I think about this, the more I hope this Analyst is correct.

drphysx said,
What a bull**** report. Android was ALREADY at 52% last quarter and still growing fast, so there's no way Android will account for only half of the sales in 2012.
Extrapolating current figures (and even assuming Android's growth is slowing, which there are still no signs of), AT LEAST 65% of smartphones sold in 2012 will be Android.

That leaves around 30% for Apple, Microsoft and RIM (assuming Bada, Symbian etc. account for 5%). Apple will stay flat at 15%, RIM will fall from 11% to around 8%, which leaves another 7% for Microsoft.

That will be about 40-50 million WP7 devices.


Wow. So much wisdom it required what, 10 posts stating the same exact analysis?

Not going to happen.... The current rate of win phone sale is .6 million per month... its growing slow and it might go to 1.5 million per month.... that could take it some where to 30 million... add 10 million just for the sake... 40 Million

still1 said,
Not going to happen.... The current rate of win phone sale is .6 million per month... its growing slow and it might go to 1.5 million per month.... that could take it some where to 30 million... add 10 million just for the sake... 40 Million

If it was so easy to calculate why does it take an analyst to release those figures?

Anooxy said,

If it was so easy to calculate why does it take an analyst to release those figures?


because no one takes a common man's analysis!!!! Only an market analysis company will make it to the news

still1 said,
Not going to happen.... The current rate of win phone sale is .6 million per month... its growing slow and it might go to 1.5 million per month.... that could take it some where to 30 million... add 10 million just for the sake... 40 Million

You are kidding. Current rate of WP7 sales is 500,000 a month (eq iPhone's ONE day sales).

alexalex said,

You are kidding. Current rate of WP7 sales is 500,000 a month (eq iPhone's ONE day sales).


Yeah that what i said too!!! I said .6 million which is 600,000 a month and I gave 100k extra for all the WP7 fans... And i said it MIGHT go to 1.5 million which is a really really positive no and i am sure 1.5 Mil per month is not going to happen any soon... I made all the best case and it came to only 30 million... Am i missing something?

still1 said,

Yeah that what i said too!!! I said .6 million which is 600,000 a month and I gave 100k extra for all the WP7 fans... And i said it MIGHT go to 1.5 million which is a really really positive no and i am sure 1.5 Mil per month is not going to happen any soon... I made all the best case and it came to only 30 million... Am i missing something?

My bad, did see the " . " :-)

still1 said,
Not going to happen.... The current rate of win phone sale is .6 million per month... its growing slow and it might go to 1.5 million per month.... that could take it some where to 30 million... add 10 million just for the sake... 40 Million

I think you might be right, having said that I have had people asking me about Windows Phone, yes that does include Android and iPhone users as well and when they see me using it and I just tell them the truth, it doesn't have all the features of other phones or even all the apps that people want but I use it and it does everything I need it to. I also demonstrate the features as well.

The amount of people that ask me about it shows that the Windows Phone brand is starting to gain interest, especially with Nokia doing their best to advertise the platform, but I think 80 million sold in 2012 is a little bit far fetched.

still1 said,
Not going to happen.... The current rate of win phone sale is .6 million per month...
somewhat reliable statistics say Nokia sold about 600K Lumias in the first two weeks after launch in November alone (the presence of Lumia phones on FB, devices sold out over a weekend in UK, NL and France)

Specifically Nokia is targetting markets where they are strong _now_ and sell way more phones/day then iPhone and Android combined.. Add to that the other WP phones coming to market and you get the picture..

I personally do not think the 80M figure will be that far off and am sure WP will be well within two digit marketshare. But we'll see by years end.. there's not need or point in getting into a YesNoYesNo p*ssing contest just yet.

I am just amused how narrow sighted people here without much idea of what is happening outside our little bitty techblog following circle think they have any idea.

Nokia and others could not care less about the average person in here as far as selling their products to. Way to much hassle and nitpicking for such a small target audience.

They have bigger fish to fry (and catch) in the real world..

paulheu said,
somewhat reliable statistics say Nokia sold about 600K Lumias in the first two weeks after launch in November alone (the presence of Lumia phones on FB, devices sold out over a weekend in UK, NL and France)

Specifically Nokia is targetting markets where they are strong _now_ and sell way more phones/day then iPhone and Android combined.. Add to that the other WP phones coming to market and you get the picture..

I personally do not think the 80M figure will be that far off and am sure WP will be well within two digit marketshare. But we'll see by years end.. there's not need or point in getting into a YesNoYesNo p*ssing contest just yet.

I am just amused how narrow sighted people here without much idea of what is happening outside our little bitty techblog following circle think they have any idea.

Nokia and others could not care less about the average person in here as far as selling their products to. Way to much hassle and nitpicking for such a small target audience.

They have bigger fish to fry (and catch) in the real world..


might be true but thats not a real number again.... thats in Nov when it got released and its obvious there would be a spike but current rate is what is important... thats why i threw in that extra 10 million...

still1 said,
Not going to happen.... The current rate of win phone sale is .6 million per month... its growing slow and it might go to 1.5 million per month.... that could take it some where to 30 million... add 10 million just for the sake... 40 Million

Yep. No reason whatsoever to expect that things like the Nokia deal, or the AT&T arrangement, or the increased marketing push to consumers AND clerks would impact things in ANY way... LOL

M_Lyons10 said,

Yep. No reason whatsoever to expect that things like the Nokia deal, or the AT&T arrangement, or the increased marketing push to consumers AND clerks would impact things in ANY way... LOL

That ANY is the change from current 0.6 million to 1.5 million per month and the added 10 million

Research study sponsored by Microsoft.

However, if RIM do not catch up soon, that number might be accurate.
Lots of contracts expire every day. This could be the year of the Windows phone.

RIM isn't going to fall to 0% that fast and Android will have at least 65% (the 50% figure from the report is nonsense, it's already at about 55%).

That leaves maybe 7% for Microsoft, or about 40-50 million, if iOS stays flat at 15%.

drphysx said,
RIM isn't going to fall to 0% that fast and Android will have at least 65% (the 50% figure from the report is nonsense, it's already at about 55%).

That leaves maybe 7% for Microsoft, or about 40-50 million, if iOS stays flat at 15%.


Ah, so in other words, in your genius opinion, NONE of their figures are as accurate as your own, intensely researched, figures... Alrighty...

LOL which analyst is that so we can point and laugh at him as a batsh*t crazy shill he is. Makes you wonder. Who takes these cookoos seriously. I mean how is he able to even do that stuff and be recognized as an "analyst" if he spouts stupid sh*t like that.

Boz said,
LOL which analyst is that so we can point and laugh at him as a batsh*t crazy shill he is. Makes you wonder. Who takes these cookoos seriously. I mean how is he able to even do that stuff and be recognized as an "analyst" if he spouts stupid sh*t like that.

OK I do see your point, but here is what they are looking at. Mobile market is due to grow by 400%, take into account the current mobile market how many iPhones, blackberry's there already are.. don't have the exact stats but it's a HUGE number. Microsoft is on pace to reach 10% market share this year.. (2012), so if there are 800 million phones (there is more than that) 10% is not so "crazy" after all.

I don't think Microsoft is going to get to those figures (it's just an estimate) but they will sell 30 to 40 million easily.. That's my guess..

Feel free to point and laugh, but mark this forum, remind us in December what the figures are NOW and in December.. I will bet you that it won't be too far off... so they aren't really "cookoos".. They DO have a basis for their estimates. Thats why they get paid the big $$$ each year.. they have more right more than they are wrong, so obviously they know SOMETHING about what is going on.

rijp said,

OK I do see your point, but here is what they are looking at. Mobile market is due to grow by 400%, take into account the current mobile market how many iPhones, blackberry's there already are.. don't have the exact stats but it's a HUGE number. Microsoft is on pace to reach 10% market share this year.. (2012), so if there are 800 million phones (there is more than that) 10% is not so "crazy" after all.

I don't think Microsoft is going to get to those figures (it's just an estimate) but they will sell 30 to 40 million easily.. That's my guess..

Feel free to point and laugh, but mark this forum, remind us in December what the figures are NOW and in December.. I will bet you that it won't be too far off... so they aren't really "cookoos".. They DO have a basis for their estimates. Thats why they get paid the big $$$ each year.. they have more right more than they are wrong, so obviously they know SOMETHING about what is going on.

There's simply no way Windows Phone will become that successful the way it currently is.

Success would require a decent marketing campaign. Microsoft can improve WP7 all they want, but the general customer won't buy it unless something like marketing tells them that they should.

So unless these analysts saw the future of Microsoft's marketing, they have no way of backing up these "predictions"

Boz said,
LOL which analyst is that so we can point and laugh at him as a batsh*t crazy shill he is. Makes you wonder. Who takes these cookoos seriously. I mean how is he able to even do that stuff and be recognized as an "analyst" if he spouts stupid sh*t like that.

Wow, biased much? I'm sure you'd love those analysts if they said the same about Android / iOS (whichever you prefer)?

Coi said,

Wow, biased much? I'm sure you'd love those analysts if they said the same about Android / iOS (whichever you prefer)?

Not really.. they have not guessed anything right so far. They said it would take Android up 2015 to reach 40% marketshare.. it happened in 2010.

They are saying that iPad is going to dominate by 2015 again, it has already passed 30% marketshare after first year.

Most of them are constantly wrong and one of the reasons for that is because they are biased and cater to the companies who pay them in order to inflate stock value.

Boz said,

Most of them are constantly wrong and one of the reasons for that is because they are biased

I agree with the first part because it's simply hard to predict how technology is going in the market.
The second part is nonsense, analysts are ALWAYS objective (at least they're meant to be), because else they couldn't be an analyst in the first place.
Even if they're slightly biased in some way, they would be FAR less biased than many normal people (even including some users on here).
For many people it's really hard to exclude their biases from making their "predictions", but analysts don't work that way.
Analysts don't base their predictions on opinions and biases, they study statistics and facts.
There have been some laughable predictions, but that doesn't mean all of them are wrong. It's like saying all conspiracies are true because some dozens have been proven true in the past years.

Coi said,

The second part is nonsense, analysts are ALWAYS objective (at least they're meant to be), because else they couldn't be an analyst in the first place.

Right.... totally logical. they are always objective and that's why they are analysts.

You totally make sense.