Analyst: Xbox One could outship PS4 three-to-one in 2013

Microsoft's move to reverse its plans for restrictive DRM policies in its upcoming Xbox One console may be having the desired effect. A new note from Baird analyst Colin Sebastian claims that, according to his firm's research, orders for the Xbox One are "regaining some momentum" compared to previous weeks.

The note, as posted on Gamesindustry International, also claims that when the Xbox One launches later this year, it could have a big advantage over Sony's rival PlayStation 4. Sebastian states, "Importantly, our supply chain checks suggest Microsoft may have the benefit of a 2-3x unit advantage at launch compared to Sony's PS4."

Even if that turns out to be true, it's also likely that there will be shortages of both consoles when they launch this fall. Microsoft has already stated that pre-orders for the Xbox One are ahead of the Xbox 360 during the same time period. Neither Microsoft nor Sony have offered any concrete sales or shipment numbers for their next generation consoles.

Sebastian adds that the higher price of the Xbox One ($499.99 versus $399.99 for the PS4) won't matter that much in the short term, because of the fact that buyers of both consoles will be technology early adopters who won't mind the price difference. However, Sebastian claims that Microsoft is "working with channel partners to lessen the gap" in price, which suggests that Microsoft could reveal a lower price for the Xbox One sooner rather than later.

Source: Gamesindustry International

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OK.
We're talking about 36 days in sales.
Or
Fiscal 2013 is over by the time either of these consoles launch.

Hey, Rocky! Watch me pull a stat out of my @**; Nothin' up my sleeve.

I'm tellin ya, whatever console Kingdom Hearts 3 appears on, I'm gonna buy THAT console!!! So far there are two articles saying it's going to either one... the One or the PS4, they weren't very clear on it yet... but whatever it is.. it'll be MINE

If Microsoft begin production sooner than Sony then yes they will. However, I'd bet my testicles that PS4 outsells the Xbox One over the next 12 months.

Microsoft has destroyed their reputation and the hype behind the PS4 is massive. And who can argue against Sony's low price point?

Furthermore, the PS4 is a technically superior machine with a lot more graphical grunt and a lot more horsepower than the Xbox One. Developers I know favour Sony's machine and it appears to be the machine of choice for most people.

As ever, we shall see. I'll be buying them both and don't care about sales figures. I just care about games, which ironically seems to be the least of Microsoft's priorities when it comes to the Xbox One. At least Sony are marketing the PS4 as a games console, not some stupid entertainment hub that will only work properly if you are in the USA.

Do you think we will get the same Premier League content that the NFL fans will get in the US? No chance. Microsoft has focussed primarily on the US market with the Xbox One.

MindTrickz said,
I'm an Analyst. I say that the Wii U will outship both of the, 50 to 1.

but do the component manufacturers back up such orders? no. theres a difference with estimating out of thin air,and estimating based on channel checks.

warwagon said,
Oh come on, where is the "I stopped reading at Analyst" comment?

I only read further so i had evidence to back up that Analysts talk rubbish

I don't think there will be component shortages this time. Both are sourcing the CPU/GPU from AMD, and all of the other components are standard PC parts...other than the plastic cases. I would think that any multi-billion dollar company would be able to get their supply chain in order by this fall's release window.

I'd imagine there will be stock shortages on both sides as they're competing for fabrication / component supply from likely similar sources.

I hate analysts predictions.. Wait till some hard numbers (12 month period) are out, then we'll see.

Launch day or launch month isn't accurate enough, as both companies are likely to sell out and it will come down to who produced more consoles.

It will be this way for a good 3 months probably.

We will have to wait until at least february 2014 to see some real numbers.

Andrew Lyle said,
Launch day or launch month isn't accurate enough, as both companies are likely to sell out and it will come down to who produced more consoles.

Of course it's not accurate for the long term... but that isn't what this is about. All they are saying is that in the short term, Microsoft might sell 3x more, if only because they have 3x more available.

I think what may tip the balance is if they pull off the tv integration features. The Wii sold so much better than the 360 and the PS3 worldwide because it was for what we call the "casual" crowd. If the TV features are done correctly, they may get some more of the share from that market. PS4 still seems to be hardcore gaming driven. Unless Nintendo does something else, the Wii U may just drive more casual gamers to Xbox or PS so whoever appeals the most to that market will win between those two I suspect.

ILikeTobacco said,
My bet is close to the 1 to 1 we got with the 360/PS3.

That would be a win for Microsoft then, as it is supposed to be decimated by the PS4.

"Neither Microsoft nor Sony have offered any concrete sales or shipment numbers for their next generation consoles."

Uh...how exactly are they going to do this when the consoles aren't even READY to be shipped let alone sold?

Because both companies know what speed they are currently producing the systems at and can give a good prediction of how many will be ready to be shipped at a given date. Remember, the article isn't saying they will ship 3 to 1. It is saying that MS appears to be producing enough to be able to. If orders are not there, obviously they wont ship them but may have produced them.

The dont even have to lower the price, just properly communicate that with the XBOX you get 1080p Kinect which is far superior in terms of features than the PS camera. Classical MSFT: they have a great product and make a joke out of it by not doing the right marketing.

gaburko said,
The dont even have to lower the price, just properly communicate that with the XBOX you get 1080p Kinect which is far superior in terms of features than the PS camera. Classical MSFT: they have a great product and make a joke out of it by not doing the right marketing.

Unless you DONT WANT a spycam in your living room! Even if the NSA does not have access (they DO have access to Skype, so I am doubtful of Microsoft's denial), Microsoft has FILED PATENTS with the Kinect targeting ads to you based on the logos the Kinect can identify in the room or reacting to people's facial expressions. They also filed a patent where they can charge you for movie rentals based on how many people are in the room!

No, I simply DO NOT TRUST Microsoft enough to put one in my home...and since it is REQUIRED instead of optional, I will not be buying an Xbox One...simple as that.

John Nemesh said,

Unless you DONT WANT a spycam in your living room! Even if the NSA does not have access (they DO have access to Skype, so I am doubtful of Microsoft's denial), Microsoft has FILED PATENTS with the Kinect targeting ads to you based on the logos the Kinect can identify in the room or reacting to people's facial expressions. They also filed a patent where they can charge you for movie rentals based on how many people are in the room!

No, I simply DO NOT TRUST Microsoft enough to put one in my home...and since it is REQUIRED instead of optional, I will not be buying an Xbox One...simple as that.

First, the "spycam" would only work if the Xbox was connected to the internet. Second, the same can be applied to Sony as well. Or to any device that has a webcam. From any manufacturer. Quit with the conspiracy theory and show us some basic shred of evidence that supports your theory.

John Nemesh said,

Microsoft has FILED PATENTS with the Kinect targeting ads to you based on the logos the Kinect can identify in the room or reacting to people's facial expressions. They also filed a patent where they can charge you for movie rentals based on how many people are in the room!

So what if they have filed patents? They have filed lots of patents. All it does is prevent other companies from doing those things. Doesn't mean they are going to implement it.

gaburko said,
The dont even have to lower the price, just properly communicate that with the XBOX you get 1080p Kinect which is far superior in terms of features than the PS camera. Classical MSFT: they have a great product and make a joke out of it by not doing the right marketing.

They don't have to lower the price per se, they just have to release a new console bundle WITHOUT the camera for $100 less. That would do a lot to convince me to buy an XB1.

Right now I see the XB1 at $500 and the PS4 at $400. I have ZERO interest in the Kinect and will NEVER use it nor will I buy any game that makes me use it. I loathe voice and motion control and will not use them.

John Nemesh said,

Unless you DONT WANT a spycam in your living room! Even if the NSA does not have access (they DO have access to Skype, so I am doubtful of Microsoft's denial), Microsoft has FILED PATENTS with the Kinect targeting ads to you based on the logos the Kinect can identify in the room or reacting to people's facial expressions. They also filed a patent where they can charge you for movie rentals based on how many people are in the room!

No, I simply DO NOT TRUST Microsoft enough to put one in my home...and since it is REQUIRED instead of optional, I will not be buying an Xbox One...simple as that.

There is a simple fix for notebooks with webcams and the Kinect:

Put Tape over the Lens (It doesn't take rocket science to circumvent technology)

If the audio mic array also scares you, buy a $20 environmental or white noise maker and set it beside the sensor. (You could even leave the sensor behind your furniture or in a box.)

Mobius Enigma said,

There is a simple fix for notebooks with webcams and the Kinect:

Put Tape over the Lens (It doesn't take rocket science to circumvent technology)

If the audio mic array also scares you, buy a $20 environmental or white noise maker and set it beside the sensor. (You could even leave the sensor behind your furniture or in a box.)

Or they could stop being *****, and just allow you to disconnect the ****ing thing.


John Nemesh said,

Unless you DONT WANT a spycam in your living room! Even if the NSA does not have access (they DO have access to Skype, so I am doubtful of Microsoft's denial), Microsoft has FILED PATENTS with the Kinect targeting ads to you based on the logos the Kinect can identify in the room or reacting to people's facial expressions. They also filed a patent where they can charge you for movie rentals based on how many people are in the room!

No, I simply DO NOT TRUST Microsoft enough to put one in my home...and since it is REQUIRED instead of optional, I will not be buying an Xbox One...simple as that.

Yep...the NSA has a vital interest in spying on you while you scratch your balls on the sofa as this is determining the national security policy. Get real...this whole privacy thing has gone so wrong. Your credit card company knows way more about you and uses it btw, compared to NSA. Hence, linking kinect with NSA is nothing short of a pathetic conspiracy theory.

MSFT are simply inadequate in their marketing, thats all. Its an old-fashioned tech company which tries to transform itself into being a relevant and hip tech one and it isnt working too well right now. They have all the ingredients, just need to go through a learning curve, it just happens that the competition is kicking them pretty strongly. At least they woke up.

DARKFiB3R said,

Or they could stop being *****, and just allow you to disconnect the ****ing thing.

I see, just like the camera on phones or the camera on your laptop, etc.

Which I am sure has prevented you and so many others from purchasing any type of device with a camera and an integrated microphone?

If people are worried about being spied on, truly, they need to stay away from iOS and Android phones, which are the easiest to remotely trigger the mic or camera due to how I/O is handled in the Unix OS model. (Or stay away from any device/computer that is using an OS that treats device connections like generic I/O streams at the kernel level.)

Ironically, people are worried about the Xbox One, yet it is not using Unix and the NT OS model does not have generic device I/O streams, making it one of the hardest systems to remotely tap.

I would 'maybe' understand the 'spying on us' craziness if people had the same reactions to all the other devices they use on a daily basis that are far more invasive. At least the Xbox One sensor isn't in your pocket when you go to the restroom.

Asmodai said,
Analyst: Aliens could land on White House lawn in 2013.

Aliens land on White House lawn every year since 1947.

I'm an analyst and I say the PS4 could outship the Xbox One three-to-one in 2013.


See how easy it is to be an analyst? You just make s**t up and everyone reports it. Don't pay any attention to analysts; especially Michael Pachter!

The "facts" are about supply chains which could be anything, APU's, PSU's etc. which could easily say Microsoft is just buying them in larger quantities than Sony is. This says nothing what so ever, doubt Amazon (nor any other retailer) gave them specifics about pre-orders.

i'm not saying i necessarily agree with the article, but it's talking about shipping, as in they'll have more available for retailers, not that they sold more, which is likely, given sony's poor cash flow these days, and ms having 70 billion in the bank. easier for MS to preorder and pay for a ton

I'm not saying the analyst can't be right. Still I doubt it (but that's my opinion).

If the analyst could elaborate some more on the "supply chain" he's talking about, sure. Most of the parts suppliers should be under NDA, that's the reason that makes me a bit doubtful on this article.

In the end I don't even care which of them sells more, I'm just glad to hear that AMD will get some cash reserve from both of them

NDA wouldn't be able to keep this a secret. If I know that a PSU costs $5 to produce/ship and there is a order on the books for $100, its possible to guess the order numbers. Obviously I oversimplified it but any publicly traded company has to reveal certain financial documents by law which can be used to come to such conclusions. I think the key to this article that all the fanboys of one or the other system are forgetting is that it doesn't say that they WILL ship 3 to 1. They simply have the capability to do it if the orders are there.

That's the thing. All of the parts in both consoles are custom made, none have a price tag outside of the arrangement of the said companies and no, those do not have to be public. Or at least not here, not sure how it works in the States, might be there.

Jaguar for example is custom made for both of them but no one has an idea how much it goes for.

Just because what you say is true for one component doesn't make it true for the others. For example, it is not hard to figure out how much the blu ray players cost. All you need is one part that you can find the price for. Also, don't get hung up on knowing the exact prices. For all we know, the math came out to be 2.9 to 1 but they simplified the numbers. Financial analysts that forecast this kind of stuff don't have to have exact numbers because by its vary nature, you are telling the future. How accurate it actually is, we won't know till shipments start, but the point of an analyst is to find indicators of what MAY happen since they can't know what WILL happen.

As far as the financial documents go, you are right in say that they won't give exact numbers on prices but certain things, like an increase in income would make it obvious. If you look at the cardboard company that makes the box for the system, you'd see an obvious increase by millions of dollars that you couldn't attribute to any other transaction. Making an educated guess as to the average price of making such a box using past transactions, you'd be able to figure out roughly how much is being made.

alwaysonacoffebreak said,
That's the thing. All of the parts in both consoles are custom made, none have a price tag outside of the arrangement of the said companies and no, those do not have to be public. Or at least not here, not sure how it works in the States, might be there.

Jaguar for example is custom made for both of them but no one has an idea how much it goes for.

Actually very few parts inside a console are actually custom made. The APU (CPU+GPU on a single die) is the only major custom chip. Everything else like RAM, Bluray drives, and hard drives are fairly standard things.

What I meant by custom was you'll not easily get your hands on them from a retail shop. Also the PS4 memory system is "fairly" custom

It is all speculation at this point, but I do think Xbox One targets a much larger audience. Hardcore gamers will probably buy both systems but entertainment enthusiast and family audiences will probably be more interested in the features of the Xbox One.

Caleo said,
Looks like a lot of speculation. I'm betting on Sony.

If the Xbox One were backwards compatible, even with an emulator, with 360 games, then Microsoft would be a clear winner. That not being the case, the PS4 has as much chance of coming out on top. In the West, though, whoever has the most FPSes wins.

Shiranui said,

If the Xbox One were backwards compatible, even with an emulator, with 360 games, then Microsoft would be a clear winner. That not being the case, the PS4 has as much chance of coming out on top. In the West, though, whoever has the most FPSes wins.

I agree backwards would have been nice, but as Microsoft found with the emulation in the 360, there was far less demand for it than expected, and even several MS Studio titles compatibility transition was stopped.

As for FPS, the Xbox One has the potential to run circles around the PS4, even though this sounds contrary to the debate about the hardware specifications. (Hint: DX11.2 features) The Xbox One can push out higher quality textures faster and the OS itself (NT) is designed around a video model that manages shared GPU RAM at the very base kernel level.

As for anecdotal reference, check out the ComiCon player reviews of the two different systems, the Xbox One was more fluid and presented a higher level of graphics quality.